Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[HedgeFund]

Okay mate, there is no added pressure with being pick 1.

Frankly, you said he IS getting pressure and COULD crack from the hype.

He isn’t pick #1 yet. So you can’t have been talking about pressure associated with being pick 1.

The only way of anyone looking at your post is in the present context. Not future (post-draft).

I accept you’ve become bored with your topic, so will leave it alone from now.

 

[peppy la pew]

This is the theory I tend to subscribe to with young player development.

You go to a winning team with veteran leadership, and you're going to develop quicker and get more out of your development than if you go to a bottom side.

This dynamic is more likely to have a baring on the development of a pick one much, irrespective how much they are hyped up.

We've seen it historically with how many kids get drafted to good teams and they turn out better than those taken before them.

I wouldn't call Freo a successful club with veteran leadership, but Brayshaw and Cerra are tracking very nicely for top 5 picks with huge expectations on them

 

[LemmingMaster]

Frankly, you said he IS getting pressure and COULD crack from the hype.

He isn’t pick #1 yet. So you can’t have been talking about pressure associated with being pick 1.

The only way of anyone looking at your post is in the present context. Not future (post-draft).

I accept you’ve become bored with your topic, so will leave it alone from now.

Yeah mate, sorry you are correct re reading my post. I was basing my statement on him being pick 1.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL best moneyball trades and free agents from the past five years and how to find them: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...*****-knightmare-best-trades-free-agent-deals

 

[Holy Rioli]

AFL best moneyball trades and free agents from the past five years and how to find them: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...*****-knightmare-best-trades-free-agent-deals

Pretty harsh not including the Tom Mitchell trade in that article. Sure he cost a late first rounder, but in return he finished 2nd in the Brownlow last year and would be right up there again this year.

 

[Knightmare]

Pretty harsh not including the Tom Mitchell trade in that article. Sure he cost a late first rounder, but in return he finished 2nd in the Brownlow last year and would be right up there again this year.

"Top trades (picks including or before No. 40 were not considered)"

Agree Mitchell was a sensational get for the Hawks for the price paid. Hawthorn convincingly won the trade and Sydney never fully utilised Mitchell having such a loaded midfield.

The focus on the piece however was on looking at those extremely cheap recruits, with the premise of Moneyball being around undervalued commodities and those that are repeatable.

 

[Holy Rioli]

"Top trades (picks including or before No. 40 were not considered)"

Agree Mitchell was a sensational get for the Hawks for the price paid. Hawthorn convincingly won the trade and Sydney never fully utilised Mitchell having such a loaded midfield.

The focus on the piece however was on looking at those extremely cheap recruits, with the premise of Moneyball being around undervalued commodities and those that are repeatable.

Sorry my bad.

 

[naturally north]

AFL best moneyball trades and free agents from the past five years and how to find them: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...*****-knightmare-best-trades-free-agent-deals

On 3 October 2014, Higgins signed with the North Melbourne Football Club as a restricted free agent after the Western Bulldogs decided not to match the Kangaroos' offer.

May need to revisit your work.

 

[Knightmare]

On 3 October 2014, Higgins signed with the North Melbourne Football Club as a restricted free agent after the Western Bulldogs decided not to match the Kangaroos' offer.

May need to revisit your work.

With free agents I wanted to focus on those who weren't rated.

Higgins was a high profile player from the Dogs who played some really strong football there when healthy. I would have thought he was someone all 18 sides if asked would have willingly offered a list position to I would have thought at that time.

He has obviously been terrific for North Melbourne and stepping things up one further gear, having a healthier run with injury than he did with the Dogs.

As with the trade targets, and perhaps I could have defined it more clearly with free agents. I wanted with free agents to focus on players who weren't wanted by anyone much - as I demonstrated listing four delisted free agents and Waite who at his age and with his injury history only really North Melbourne went after.

 

[rebeti]

"Top trades (picks including or before No. 40 were not considered)"

Agree Mitchell was a sensational get for the Hawks for the price paid. Hawthorn convincingly won the trade and Sydney never fully utilised Mitchell having such a loaded midfield.

The focus on the piece however was on looking at those extremely cheap recruits, with the premise of Moneyball being around undervalued commodities and those that are repeatable.

Sydney must be regretting the loss of Mitchell,considering they used the Hawthorn pick to draft Ollie Florent,an inside/outside runner with good pace and skills.I would suggest the trade will be seen as a win for both clubs who traded for players they had a need for.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Sydney must be regretting the loss of Mitchell,considering they used the Hawthorn pick to draft Ollie Florent,an inside/outside runner with good pace and skills.I would suggest the trade will be seen as a win for both clubs who traded for players they had a need for.

This isn't correct.

Sydney traded Picks 14 (Hawthorn's 2016 1st round), 17 and 31 to Port Adelaide for Picks 9, 19 and 49.

I'm sure both clubs are happy with their draft haul from their first two picks, but Sydney were only able to get access to Florent by performing another separate trade with Port Adelaide.

 

[McCraeBF]

This isn't correct.

Sydney traded Picks 14 (Hawthorn's 2016 1st round), 17 and 31 to Port Adelaide for Picks 9, 19 and 49.

I'm sure both clubs are happy with their draft haul from their first two picks, but Sydney were only able to get access to Florent by performing another separate trade with Port Adelaide.

I said at the start of the year that a bottom 5 Pick in this draft would be gold ..with the dogs looking like pick 3-5 and West ,Khamis would you put that pick on the table for say picks 11-and 12 ??

I love OHalloran and if we could get Hill as well with his outside speed

West
OHalloran
Hill
Khamis
Gowers (upgrade)

I would be over the moon and happy to let a King or a Rankine go...

 

[Old Stuckup]

Who is the most AFL-ready early selection in this draft?

 

[Bicks]

Who is the most AFL-ready early selection in this draft?

Izak Rankine

 

[dirty2]

At ports we need some kpd (prob with our later picks) any good kpds to look at later in the draft?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I wouldn't call Freo a successful club with veteran leadership, but Brayshaw and Cerra are tracking very nicely for top 5 picks with huge expectations on them

Not to be alarmist but I'd be worried re Cerra with Paul Connors as his manager . Sign him up fast !

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Izak Rankine

Rankine Walsh Hately

 

[peppy la pew]

Not to be alarmist but I'd be worried re Cerra with Paul Connors as his manager . Sign him up fast !

Don't worry mate concern well noted, most of us are happy to let him play out the year and watch his value rise

Hopefully he stay's otherwise IIWII and we move on

Very happy with Brayshaw and Cerra, 2 outstanding players

 

[Islanddoggy]

Hi KM

I am a little confused with the super draft label for this years draft. I know many draft watchers have amended this statement to point out that the top 10 is where the super talent is, but to put it in perspective what would you think the top 10 would look like today? factoring in
how last years draft have performed this year. Be interested to see how many of last years draft would make this years top 10?

 

[Knightmare]

Sydney must be regretting the loss of Mitchell,considering they used the Hawthorn pick to draft Ollie Florent,an inside/outside runner with good pace and skills.I would suggest the trade will be seen as a win for both clubs who traded for players they had a need for.

Hawthorn won the trade but Sydney still got a nice piece. Florent will be a good long term piece with his past month and a half fair evidence of this. It's just hard to see him achieving historically great numbers as Mitchell is.

I said at the start of the year that a bottom 5 Pick in this draft would be gold ..with the dogs looking like pick 3-5 and West ,Khamis would you put that pick on the table for say picks 11-and 12 ??

I love OHalloran and if we could get Hill as well with his outside speed

West
OHalloran
Hill
Khamis
Gowers (upgrade)

I would be over the moon and happy to let a King or a Rankine go...

Absolutely that top five looks special this year. Really that top 8 is special.

Will be hard to get O'Halloran unless Dogs get more picks. He could be a first rounder at years end, though more the back end of first round or second round is roughly where I see him at the moment.

I wouldn't be giving up a top five pick this year for two picks outside the top 10. Normally I'd be in favour of moving down a few positions for more first round picks, but with the top end talent this year, I'm not convinced it's the right move.

You'd have to be convinced a Bailey Smith would be there as that second best player in the draft for mine to execute that move, and I'm not seeing that happening the way he is playing.

Who is the most AFL-ready early selection in this draft?

Bailey Smith with Sam Walsh that other who you'd expect to line up round one.

At ports we need some kpd (prob with our later picks) any good kpds to look at later in the draft?

If you don't mind going mature age Sam Collins is a plug and play key defender.

If you want to go younger Jordon Butts is my guy late draft. Had him inside my top 20 prospects last year, got overlooked, and he's continued where he left off last year.

Hi KM

I am a little confused with the super draft label for this years draft. I know many draft watchers have amended this statement to point out that the top 10 is where the super talent is, but to put it in perspective what would you think the top 10 would look like today? factoring in
how last years draft have performed this year. Be interested to see how many of last years draft would make this years top 10?

The top 10 is special this year. There are a few other curious dynamics with what looks likely to be a combined record between father-son and all the academy prospects to be taken. Otherwise after that top 10, this draft becomes roughly a normal quality draft.

To combine the two drafts based on views at the time of the draft and the present views of this years draft I could see a rough draft order of *italics for 2017
1. Lukosius
2. Walsh
3. T.Thomas
4. M.King
5. B.King
6. Rayner
7. Rankine
8. Blakey
9. B.Smith
10. Brayshaw

 

[Bicks]

Hard running mid. Draftable, but not an early pick.



My comment as Pie 4 Life mentioned was if I had pick 1, that's how much would need to be offered for me to give it up.

Trading potentially the best ever pick 1 isn't something as a list manager I'd have on my to-do list or want on my resume.

It would have to be an entirely lopsided deal as per those I proposed for me to feel compelled to trade that pick.

 

[M Malice]

Hi Knightmare , there was a post on our board today, they were speaking to a prominent Melbourne based recruiter and they were told that Lukosius is definitely not the consensus number 1 selection among recruiters. This is the polar opposite of what I read on BF DT&FA board.

Your thoughts on this, can you confirm?

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Hi Knightmare , there was a post on our board today, they were speaking to a prominent Melbourne based recruiter and they were told that Lukosius is definitely not the consensus number 1 selection among recruiters. This is the polar opposite of what I read on BF DT&FA board.

Your thoughts on this, can you confirm?

Cal Twomey had asked recruiters on one of his podcasts and had Blakey, Lukosious, Max King and maybe Walsh all listed as possible pick 1's fwiw

 

[Bicks]

Shifter Sheahan's top 3 "value" picks Jacob Koschitzke, Tom Berry and Zac Butters.....Your thoughts Knightmare

https://www.triplem.com.au/shows/de...an-names-his-top-value-picks-in-the-afl-draft

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare , there was a post on our board today, they were speaking to a prominent Melbourne based recruiter and they were told that Lukosius is definitely not the consensus number 1 selection among recruiters. This is the polar opposite of what I read on BF DT&FA board.

Your thoughts on this, can you confirm?

What you heard is correct. Lukosius is not the consensus number one choice amongst all recruiters. Most seem to rate him as the best in the draft, but there are a lot of Walsh supporters and a few who seem to slightly favour one or the other of the King boys.

The views of recruiters don't reflect my views or my power rankings and certainly not my long standing projection from Lukosius from 12 months ago that he is the best prospect I've seen.

Shifter Sheahan's top 3 "value" picks Jacob Koschitzke, Tom Berry and Zac Butters.....Your thoughts Knightmare

https://www.triplem.com.au/shows/de...an-names-his-top-value-picks-in-the-afl-draft

We're all going to have different perspectives on the best value choices. I have some very different names in mind if I'm to list off some of my value picks. A number of mine are overagers among a few other smokies.

With that said, each of Shifter's three value picks I rate. They should all go in the national draft and all could feature around the mid point in the draft if the draft is held tomorrow. Berry and maybe Butters I see as being relative value, but are probably not the most extreme examples of value I'd seeing in this draft, with a few who may go late/rookie/undrafted who I think clubs are completely misevaluating or severely underrating among others.