Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Could you see Connor Rozee pushing past Sam Walsh and/or Bailey Smith on draft night?

Walsh, no.

Smith, depends on how high he rises closer to the draft. With a big finals series, he can become the consensus second mid in this draft.

 

[Bicks]

Chayce Jones best on again for Launy yesterday in the Tasmanian State League
Tarryn Thomas dnp with North Launy having the bye

 

[HedgeFund]

Walsh, no.

Smith, depends on how high he rises closer to the draft. With a big finals series, he can become the consensus second mid in this draft.

Why couldn’t Smith become the #1 mid? You’ve Power Ranked him at #2 after Lukosius (ahead of Walsh already). Seems odd.....

 

[Knightmare]

Chayce Jones best on again for Launy yesterday in the Tasmanian State League
Tarryn Thomas dnp with North Launy having the bye

I've long wished stats were kept in Tas, but due to financial reasons they're not.

Jones can win it and rack it up like mad and I'm not surprised to see him feature in the bests at state level. He'd be in my first round mock draft if I was doing one today, based on what I'm hearing, I just don't rate him nearly that highly in my own rankings - finding his disposal by foot very sloppy. He also relative to those others I see in a similar range lacks the points of difference to really put him ahead of any of those top end types.

Why couldn’t Smith become the #1 mid? You’ve Power Ranked him at #2 after Lukosius (ahead of Walsh already). Seems odd.....

Simply based off my perception of club rankings.

Lukosius/Walsh/M.King in differing orders seem the top three on most draft boards. From there typically Rankine/B.King/T.Thomas/Blakey/Rozee/Smith seem to be in that next tier in again differing orders by draft board.

I have long rated Smith ahead of Walsh on quality, but in clubland, the prevailing opinion is Walsh is the clearly better prospect and a clear tier above.

 

[giblj]

I've long wished stats were kept in Tas, but due to financial reasons they're not.

Jones can win it and rack it up like mad and I'm not surprised to see him feature in the bests at state level. He'd be in my first round mock draft if I was doing one today, based on what I'm hearing, I just don't rate him nearly that highly in my own rankings - finding his disposal by foot very sloppy. He also relative to those others I see in a similar range lacks the points of difference to really put him ahead of any of those top end types.



Simply based off my perception of club rankings.

Lukosius/Walsh/M.King in differing orders seem the top three on most draft boards. From there typically Rankine/B.King/T.Thomas/Blakey/Rozee/Smith seem to be in that next tier in again differing orders by draft board.

I have long rated Smith ahead of Walsh on quality, but in clubland, the prevailing opinion is Walsh is the clearly better prospect and a clear tier above.

Stats are taken in the TSL, it's just done internally and not all clubs do it. You can find them if you know where to look

 

[Bicks]

Stats are taken in the TSL, it's just done internally and not all clubs do it. You can find them if you know where to look

Ok, where then, I'm very interested in 3 in particular Chayce Jones, Tarryn Thomas and Tim Auckland.

 

[Knightmare]

Stats are taken in the TSL, it's just done internally and not all clubs do it. You can find them if you know where to look

Apparently I don't know where to look.

I've asked the competition previously and their answer was they don't, so that must have changed this year.

If you're happy to share, that would be appreciated.

I might be able to give Tasmanian prospects where deserved more frequent mention rather than only mentioning their U18 champs or AFL Academy stuff.

 

[Bicks]

Apparently I don't know where to look.

I've asked the competition previously and their answer was they don't, so that must have changed this year.

If you're happy to share, that would be appreciated.

I might be able to give Tasmanian prospects where deserved more frequent mention rather than only mentioning their U18 champs or AFL Academy stuff.

I can tell you Chayce Jones had 12 Clearances for the day because their coach mentioned it in his post match presser on the Launceston FC website.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Stats are taken in the TSL, it's just done internally and not all clubs do it. You can find them if you know where to look

Is this a “if you know where to look” public thing? Or a “know where to look if you have a username/password” thing?

 

[bird_man]

I'm surprised Lukosius' value hasn't dropped at all.

I know he's playing against men, but he's been named in the best once this year and going at less than a goal a game.

At the same age Jesse Hogan was doing a hell of a lot better in the VFL, being named in the best more than not and getting close to three goals a game.

 

[HedgeFund]

I'm surprised Lukosius' value hasn't dropped at all.

I know he's playing against men, but he's been named in the best once this year and going at less than a goal a game.

At the same age Jesse Hogan was doing a hell of a lot better in the VFL, being named in the best more than not and getting close to three goals a game.

Blasphemy I tell you!

 

[Knightmare]

I'm surprised Lukosius' value hasn't dropped at all.

I know he's playing against men, but he's been named in the best once this year and going at less than a goal a game.

At the same age Jesse Hogan was doing a hell of a lot better in the VFL, being named in the best more than not and getting close to three goals a game.

SANFL is of a (slightly) higher standard than the VFL.

Hogan is certainly doing more at the same age, but also had a much more advanced body and had the advantage of developing inside an AFL club with those resources on hand. I would comment, by disposal, Lukosius' influence is higher with the way his kicking opens up games.

With the way the modern game is played, Lukosius' game is much more compatible with AFL play with his running and kicking likely to cause opposition sides problems whereas with Hogan as a stronger, more marking forward is more checkable with AFL key defenders having the size and strength to limit Hogan's influence. With Lukosius, I'm not seeing a key defender willing to push up to the forward pocket to defend him. It's comparing a key forward who can be defended against a key forward who can't in the same way no one could really defend Nick Riewoldt.

Given this, I'm predicting Lukosius to become long term the better pro. As his production is less at the same age, I'm not expecting his production out of the gate to be as great, but give him four years and he could be the best key forward if not the best player in the game if he lands in the right situation with good coaching and the veteran leadership around him to allow him to maximise his potential.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

SANFL is of a (slightly) higher standard than the VFL.

Have they had many mature age success stories of late though? The names that come to mind when I think of SANFL mature agers are the likes of Beech, Fuller, J. Tippett and Eddy, who haven't really made the step up. I'm sure there are a bunch of names I'm missing but they're not immediately coming to mind.

 

[M Malice]

You've really gone out on your own labeling Jack Lukosius as a potential once in a generation/best player in the competition prospect KM and kudos to you for that. I think it's admirable that you are willing to really put your thoughts on players out there particularly when they are not universally accepted.

 

[Knightmare]

Have they had many mature age success stories of late though? The names that come to mind when I think of SANFL mature agers are the likes of Beech, Fuller, J. Tippett and Eddy, who haven't really made the step up. I'm sure there are a bunch of names I'm missing but they're not immediately coming to mind.

You'd be right to say in recent years the VFL has proven a better recruiting ground than the SANFL.

When I say higher standard, I'm talking, go back to the VFL v SANFL state games past for a feel. As a competition, I find the ball use is to generalise, of a higher standard relatively.

WAFL is at the moment the strongest state league and the point of difference there is a combination of having a lot of the best midfielders and also having outside run that the other competitions don't have as much of.

You've really gone out on your own labeling Jack Lukosius as a potential once in a generation/best player in the competition prospect KM and kudos to you for that. I think it's admirable that you are willing to really put your thoughts on players out there particularly when they are not universally accepted.

When it comes to the draft, the key is making your own evaluations on each prospect.

I've made more mistakes over the years listening to others - in clubland and elsewhere than I have when I have made my own evaluations, so understanding this, I go to games and try to sit on my own and make my own evaluations on prospects and try not to read what others think of the various prospects.

I'm content to be on my own on Lukosius. There hasn't been a prospect since I've started following the draft I've been as excited about seeing.

As a tall, I'm not all that worried about what he does in his first three seasons. As long as in season four and beyond he at AFL level covers the kms like no other by position and opens games up with his kicking as he has shown he has the capacity to do this year, he'll be special, perhaps even all-time.

 

[Bicks]

Have they had many mature age success stories of late though? The names that come to mind when I think of SANFL mature agers are the likes of Beech, Fuller, J. Tippett and Eddy, who haven't really made the step up. I'm sure there are a bunch of names I'm missing but they're not immediately coming to mind.

Willie Rioli - Glenelg - WCE
Nick Holman - Central Districts - GCS
Lachlan Murphy - Adelaide SANFL - Adelaide AFL
Jarrod Lienert - Sturt - Port Adelaide
Paul Puopolo - Norwood - Hawthorn
Lee Spurr - Central Districts - Fremantle

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Rozee is kicking goals every week now, has been very consistent since Champs.

Is he firming for a top 10? If blues traded down to 8-10 (Obvs picking other drafts/players up) would he be a good fit?

Yep - top 10 for mine

You may need to find someone else who wins the ball more for where you're at maybe ?

 

[HedgeFund]

As his production is less at the same age, I'm not expecting his production out of the gate to be as great, but give him four years and he could be the best key forward if not the best player in the game if he lands in the right situation with good coaching and the veteran leadership around him to allow him to maximise his potential.

Come on KM, cue the reverse sensors here.

Could be....if he lands....with good coaching.....veteran leadership.....allow him to maximise....

You’ve gone soft.

 

[Knightmare]

Come on KM, cue the reverse sensors here.

Could be....if he lands....with good coaching.....veteran leadership.....allow him to maximise....

You’ve gone soft.

There is always the * that comes with going to a bottom club. We see their player development so often isn't up to scratch.

If he goes to an Adelaide or West Coast where their KPP development has been historically top notch. It could be the difference between being a 150 mark per year player and a 200 mark per year player in his prime.

Either way, he still looks flat out special.

A clear number one and still the clear best I've seen come through the draft.

There just hasn't ever been anyone who has not only produced but has the endurance or capacity to break games open with his kicking as he can.

 

[camcanchris]

Hi Knightmare,
I see Shane Nelson is having another good year. Do you think that any one will take a punt on him with mature age players being in vogue?
Chance for a rookie spot?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,
I see Shane Nelson is having another good year. Do you think that any one will take a punt on him with mature age players being in vogue?
Chance for a rookie spot?

I haven't heard Nelson mentioned, but he's AFL ready and one who can step into a team round one.

Not many players who average 37.6 disposals per game in the WAFL who have decent pace and can hit their targets reliably.

I'd love Carlton or Gold Coast to give him a go late rookie draft.

 

[weetert]

I haven't heard Nelson mentioned, but he's AFL ready and one who can step into a team round one.

Not many players who average 37.6 disposals per game in the WAFL who have decent pace and can hit their targets reliably.

I'd love Carlton or Gold Coast to give him a go late rookie draft.

What are the knocks on this bloke? Apart from his lack of size, I've heard that he's fairly slow but apparently he ran a 2.82 at the combine years ago...

 

[Knightmare]

What are the knocks on this bloke? Apart from his lack of size, I've heard that he's fairly slow but apparently he ran a 2.82 at the combine years ago...

He also won the kicking test in the same year - also going super well in speed, agility and repeat sprint testing.

Size, lack of hurt factor, tackling and work defensively are the weaknesses.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

There is always the * that comes with going to a bottom club. We see their player development so often isn't up to scratch.

Do you/could you factor that in to your assessments? For example, you might consider Walsh a more likely shot at thriving wherever he winds up than Rankine, though the latter might have the greater headroom in the right environment.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you/could you factor that in to your assessments? For example, you might consider Walsh a more likely shot at thriving wherever he winds up than Rankine, though the latter might have the greater headroom in the right environment.

When considering prospects, you consider floors and ceilings. So that element comes into consideration. And you're right with say Walsh - he is the safe selection as that ultra high production mid who wins it inside/outside and runs all day.

Rankine for mine while I also there is a greater difference between his floor and ceiling, I don't view as all that risky. I think his floor is fairly high given he has the SANFL league performances on the board, but with his talent, on a good team, he could really stand out on another level.

I feel like, regardless of floor and ceiling, I see the career outcome being hurt if they go to a bad team without the veteran leadership or coaching. If Walsh goes to say Gold Coast (which isn't an ideal situation at the moment with Ablett gone, Lynch leaving, Hall maybe going and possibly Swallow going), he could be Scully. If he goes to Richmond or a similar good situation, he could be Josh Kelly.

When I'm thinking high ceiling and one who could in the right environment be special, Riley Collier-Dawkins is one who instantly comes to mind. I still think those types even in those less than ideal situations can make it, and sometimes even make it in a big way, but my feel is that it makes a risky prospect a more risky prospect when they go to a less established club. If he went to a Carlton or Gold Coast, I wouldn't feel as confident as I would if he went to one of the top sides who have that leadership structure in place and the top tier coaching. You see him in game, and he has those moments where using his last game as an example, he can play forward or outside and do very little, then he can step into the midfield then the next three stoppages he'll win first possession and come bursting out of it at speed (and we're talking about a 193cm mid).