Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

andleanback

Team Captain
Aug 21, 2016
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Not quite yet, will hopefully grow taller than his current 192cm.
Not many defenders can do what he does. He was impressive in WAFL senior debut then i believe he missed the rest of the season. He also won the AFL life members scholarship fund and if you look at previous recipients, its only given to the best of the best (the last 9 winners have gone top 5 at minimum).
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
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Id have Grainger-baras in there over someone like wil parker or sam collins. He's a top 10 lock
Top-10 lock is definitely premature. There aren't many I'd say are top-10 locks at this stage for next year. There are a few I'm strong on as top-5 guys next year, but from there I'm not seeing it as concretely.

Grainger-Baras is in my top-25 and was on the fringe for me, but I do rate him (slightly) behind Parker and Collins. Great athlete though and like Parker and Collins can really intercept. Look forward to seeing more of him next season.

Km who do you think won the carlton deal with adelaide now that all the players are selected?

So basically, would you rather..

Stocker + kemp + philp - pick 55 (used to get philp)

OR

pick 4 lachlan ash (if crows kept that pick)

OR

pick 6 fischer mcasey + gws 2020 1st pick?
GWS are the clear loser of the deal. McAsey I favour to Ash and losing that 2020 first is a notable subtraction whether used on a player or in a trade next year. And we weren't to know that as at the time of the deal who was to know a bid on Green would come at pick 10? They likely could still have selected Ash with their original pick in addition to Green, so it's giving away their 2020 first for nothing. But they were't to know so it's difficult to criticise their thought process in fairness to them, but the result is the result.

From there, I look at both Adelaide and Carlton as doing well from the deal.

Carlton turning pick 4 this year into Stocker and Kemp (I don't rate Philp) is solid. While I don't agree with Carlton's talent ID, but their methodology I like and is the lesson I feel a lot of recruiters can learn from what Carlton did. Turning one first round pick, into two, and then moving down in the draft from a first round pick to another pick where you can get your target and then another first rounder I feel is a good approach to the draft and playing the percentages. Unlucky for Adelaide that Carlton didn't finish low enough to get them a Matt Rowell or Noah Anderson as it looked like could be the case this time last year, and that in a lot of ways saved Carlton's bacon, but trading one first for two firsts where possible I like and would be looking where practical to do.

Adelaide also I'm seeing as being in a better position as a result of the trade, and more so due to their trade component with GWS, only moving back a couple of spots to get a future first. I'd do that kind of trade any day of the week and I'd regard it as perfect practice for clubs to follow and would be something I'd put out there and let clubs know I'm willing to do if they've got a particular draft target in mind where they're willing to pay that price premium to secure.
 

eDPS

Devon Goods
Nov 4, 2010
18,707
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Not many defenders can do what he does. He was impressive in WAFL senior debut then i believe he missed the rest of the season. He also won the AFL life members scholarship fund and if you look at previous recipients, its only given to the best of the best (the last 9 winners have gone top 5 at minimum).
Young and Stephenson weren’t top 5 but yeah it’s still a good indication of top 10 although at 192cm it’s small for a key defender and as good as his intercepting is he isn’t a big ball winner so may hamper him playing a 3rd tall role. If he grows to say 195cm I think he is a lock for top 5.
 

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LittleG

Premiership Player
Nov 18, 2015
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E MacPherson, dogs F/S looks to me like a top 20 pick. Works hard and sets the standard at training. Is it his lack of super athletic traits letting him down?
 

Trav 20

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Most clubs favoured Jackson over Green. There might have only been 3/4 clubs that favoured Green. My evaluation agrees with the small minority.

De Goey I actually rated at 14 fyi. Goddard I actually rated at 16: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmare-2014-phantom-draft.1081319/

Obviously in hindsight I'd rate De Goey much higher and Goddard not at all. Goddard I expected would develop a lot better. Perhaps St Kilda's lacking youth development of the time had some impact on that. And maybe being exposed to a positive culture at Collingwood benefitted De Goey and has allowed for him to fulfil his potential? My view since towards KPPs has changed a fair bit since. With key defenders I look at lot more at guys who intercept and win their 1v1s with those who don't rebound/intercept largely not on my board anymore. De Goey under my revised analysis I've learnt a lot from underrating also and have since placed a greater value on contested ball winners with an element of power to them.
Here is one of your 2014 power rankings:

-- High level difference makers --

6. Peter Wright (VIC - KPF/Ruck)

7. Jayden Laverde (VIC – Util)

8. Jake Lever (VIC – KPD)

9. Hugh Goddard (VIC – KPD/KPF)

10. Sam Durdin (SA – KPD/KPF)

11. Caleb Marchbank (VIC – KPD)

12. Kyle Langford (VIC – Util)

13. Lachlan Weller (QLD – Util)

14. Jarrod Pickett (WA – Mid/Fwd)

15. Liam Duggan (VIC – Util)

16. Jack Steele (GWS - Academy - NSW – Mid/Fwd)

17. Jordan De Goey (VIC –Mid/Fwd)

link: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2014-phantom-draft.1060197/


Your rankings seem to evolve throughout a season, but the one I quickly found online certainly had Goddard and de Goey where I asserted they were.

As you sniff the breeze the closer the draft gets, your ranking of some players seem to shift to reflect their likely draft number.

As for Jackson, you acknowledge your views agree with the ''small minority'' yet say Melbourne were ''egregious'' to not bid on Green. This view is patent nonsense.
 

flipper83

All Australian
Jul 18, 2012
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If he lacks athletic traits no chance he goes top 20. Plus he didnt even get in the metro hub.
Interesting considering he captained the U16 vic metro team.
I agree he's not likely a top 20 selection. Doesn't really appear to have any elite qualities at this stage.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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E MacPherson, dogs F/S looks to me like a top 20 pick. Works hard and sets the standard at training. Is it his lack of super athletic traits letting him down?
Not a standout for me at this stage. Physically quite developed, good tackler and ball user. On the short side, a January birthday and not as influential as a number of others in next years pool at this stage. A possible but not certain pick at this point.

Here is one of your 2014 power rankings:

-- High level difference makers --

6. Peter Wright (VIC - KPF/Ruck)

7. Jayden Laverde (VIC – Util)

8. Jake Lever (VIC – KPD)

9. Hugh Goddard (VIC – KPD/KPF)

10. Sam Durdin (SA – KPD/KPF)

11. Caleb Marchbank (VIC – KPD)

12. Kyle Langford (VIC – Util)

13. Lachlan Weller (QLD – Util)

14. Jarrod Pickett (WA – Mid/Fwd)

15. Liam Duggan (VIC – Util)

16. Jack Steele (GWS - Academy - NSW – Mid/Fwd)

17. Jordan De Goey (VIC –Mid/Fwd)

link: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/knightmares-2014-phantom-draft.1060197/


Your rankings seem to evolve throughout a season, but the one I quickly found online certainly had Goddard and de Goey where I asserted they were.

As you sniff the breeze the closer the draft gets, your ranking of some players seem to shift to reflect their likely draft number.

As for Jackson, you acknowledge your views agree with the ''small minority'' yet say Melbourne were ''egregious'' to not bid on Green. This view is patent nonsense.
I've learnt a lot since 2014. The most significant learning has been not to follow the group think or even care where others rate players, or recommend - take another look at this guy. I now make entirely my own calls on talent. The only interest I have in where others rate players is in the context of where they might get drafted. As a recruiter this is useful information because it allows for you to get guys you might rate highest with much later picks if you know they're going to be there and get other guys you like sooner.

As mentioned in my earlier posts, there were a lot of poor revisions on my part at that time. Having Boekhorst or McKenna on my board at all. Getting sucked into the hype around Ellis when I wasn't a fan of his game, just feeling obliged to move him up because I knew he was going first round. They're not mistakes I make any more. I no longer feel any obligation to rate players clubs like. And it's been a gradual move and one as I've become more and more confident in my capacity to identify talent I've been able to make. Even going back to 2011 I started making bold calls and I started to back myself and make that transition, but still I'd be too receptive to what others thought and second guessing myself to a small extent. 2016 if I was to identify a year, my first year with ESPN was when I completely eliminated that and went completely my own way and developed that confidence upon reflecting upon my past results when I backed myself, outperforming clubs more often when I backed my own evaluations. And when you know enough footy and see the results go your way when backing yourself, it makes the process a lot easier.
 

Sydney Kicker

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Jan 18, 2015
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Knightmare, can I thank you for the immense amount of time you have put into this great thread. Have been a lurker on the thread for a few months but this is my first post.

Emerson Jeka looks a really interesting pickup for us. From reading our board I understand 12-24 months ago he was very highly rated but seemingly since then slipped right down everyone's board to the point he almost didn't get drafted. I understand injuries played some role but is that the main factor? Given young players (especially key position ones) can be quite inconsistent I'd be interested in your insights into his regression as a pick, his current skillset and what sort of best case and realistic scenarios you see for him moving forward?
 

Knightmare

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Sep 22, 2010
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Knightmare, can I thank you for the immense amount of time you have put into this great thread. Have been a lurker on the thread for a few months but this is my first post.

Emerson Jeka looks a really interesting pickup for us. From reading our board I understand 12-24 months ago he was very highly rated but seemingly since then slipped right down everyone's board to the point he almost didn't get drafted. I understand injuries played some role but is that the main factor? Given young players (especially key position ones) can be quite inconsistent I'd be interested in your insights into his regression as a pick, his current skillset and what sort of best case and realistic scenarios you see for him moving forward?
There were a number of analysts who rated Jeka 12 months ago and seemed to jump early on him as an early prospect.

My take differs vastly from the mainstream on Jeka as someone 12 months ago I'd noted as someone I would not draft unless he improved drastically.

I found him to not hit the scoreboard enough (10 goals from 14 games isn't enough), didn't find nearly enough of the footy or take enough marks - often dropping marks and looking mediocre at ground level. I can't say I find him meaningfully better this year. More sure of hands overhead perhaps and decent on the lead but not finding much more of it or hitting the scoreboard any more.

He doesn't tick any of my criteria for key forwards. Doesn't have the production, nor the improvement and he lacks that point of difference that makes him stand out/suggests he can exploit defenders at the next level. He's a good athlete, solid on the lead, but that's not enough. Reminds me a lot of Spencer White for those who watching him 5+ years ago for the Saints, struggling in the VFL to find any consistency.
 

Sydney Kicker

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Jan 18, 2015
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There were a number of analysts who rated Jeka 12 months ago and seemed to jump early on him as an early prospect.

My take differs vastly from the mainstream on Jeka as someone 12 months ago I'd noted as someone I would not draft unless he improved drastically.

I found him to not hit the scoreboard enough (10 goals from 14 games isn't enough), didn't find nearly enough of the footy or take enough marks - often dropping marks and looking mediocre at ground level. I can't say I find him meaningfully better this year. More sure of hands overhead perhaps and decent on the lead but not finding much more of it or hitting the scoreboard any more.

He doesn't tick any of my criteria for key forwards. Doesn't have the production, nor the improvement and he lacks that point of difference that makes him stand out/suggests he can exploit defenders at the next level. He's a good athlete, solid on the lead, but that's not enough. Reminds me a lot of Spencer White for those who watching him 5+ years ago for the Saints, struggling in the VFL to find any consistency.
Thank you. Makes it much clearer why he was a speculative pick though not why he was so highly rated by some in the first place. I guess the Hawks see someone that has development potential.

Our Board is rampantly optimistic of course. Hopefully he can beat the odds and make it.
 

Howzat1

Draftee
Nov 4, 2016
3
3
AFL Club
Melbourne
Darcy Cassar. I rate him top 25 - 30 pick yet missed out. Unsure why. Class. Composure. Solid athlete. Very good wing or half back. One to watch in VFL next year
 

andleanback

Team Captain
Aug 21, 2016
552
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Darcy Cassar. I rate him top 25 - 30 pick yet missed out. Unsure why. Class. Composure. Solid athlete. Very good wing or half back. One to watch in VFL next year
Will play jets as a 19yo you would think. He got a lot of his touches this year as easy back 50 uncontested possessions, would’ve liked to see him used on a wing or forward. Was probably used as a necessity for the jets in their back 50 and it hindered his draftabilty.
 
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Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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Thank you. Makes it much clearer why he was a speculative pick though not why he was so highly rated by some in the first place. I guess the Hawks see someone that has development potential.

Our Board is rampantly optimistic of course. Hopefully he can beat the odds and make it.
Jeka still has his fans but poor performance and lack of improvement are why he's a rookie rather than a national draft pick. He's one I wouldn't have picked at all, but Hawthorn are great with developing talent so for all I know he could far surpass my expectations as Lewis has this year.

Darcy Cassar. I rate him top 25 - 30 pick yet missed out. Unsure why. Class. Composure. Solid athlete. Very good wing or half back. One to watch in VFL next year
For me the contested side of his game isn't strong enough and his impact low-moderate. So he wasn't on my draft board. He had his fans though and was close for a few clubs. Had West Coast had one more pick I suspect they may have taken him with their liking for juniors who have been good for a few years traditionally.
 

kickthething

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Jul 5, 2010
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you are kidding, right?
On a separate note...anyone concerned how clubs are using the Rookie draft ... with the seemingly low numbers taken across drafts this year, should their be a caveat on players being taken in the Rookie draft, say maximum 10 AFL games played?
 

andleanback

Team Captain
Aug 21, 2016
552
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On a separate note...anyone concerned how clubs are using the Rookie draft ... with the seemingly low numbers taken across drafts this year, should their be a caveat on players being taken in the Rookie draft, say maximum 10 AFL games played?
They should get rid of the rookie draft and make it a list of 44 plus your cat b player. Round 5 onwards in the draft only a 1 year contract.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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On a separate note...anyone concerned how clubs are using the Rookie draft ... with the seemingly low numbers taken across drafts this year, should their be a caveat on players being taken in the Rookie draft, say maximum 10 AFL games played?
There is a good case to eliminate the rookie draft completely as it is because it is allowing clubs to delist and re-draft players as rookies at a rate where more picks than not are to do that now.

Scrapping is one option and the only rookies would be cat b rookies. The other option would be if the AFL want to retain a rookie list is at least restricting the rookie list to exclusively players who have not been drafted onto an AFL list before would be the two alternatives I'd suggest the AFL discuss. The latter could also work and be a two birds with one stone solution because the AFL is committed to a mid-season draft and it allows clubs to recycle and go for more mature talent then and allow the speculative types from the u18s to get picked to one year deals as rookies rather than half year deals where for those lesser developed types it's not enough time to reasonably be expected to develop and show much.

The rookie draft for a few years now hasn't been as entertaining as it could be. I want a Waylon Manson or a few more 'out there' guys picked. The whole premise of a rookie list is to speculate on talent and give guys a go on a one year deal who you may not necessarily want to risk a two year deal on. So if it's going to continue, I'd like for it to go back to the spirit and purpose it was brought in for.
 

troyjones2525

Rookie
May 16, 2009
43
15
Sale, Victoria
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KM could you give us a list of players who missed out this year getting drafted that you still rate as a chance to get picked up in the next couple of years as they mature and reasons why you think?

There seemed to be a few talented players that missed out this year being as it was a fairly even draft year.

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Knightmare

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KM could you give us a list of players who missed out this year getting drafted that you still rate as a chance to get picked up in the next couple of years as they mature and reasons why you think?

There seemed to be a few talented players that missed out this year being as it was a fairly even draft year.

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Josh Shute, Angus Baker, Ben Sokol, Sam Lowson, Luke Partington, Hewago Paul-Oea, Brodie Newman, Dyson Hilder, Karl Finlay, Josh Gore, Jackson Davies, Nicholas Murray and Bailey Schmidt are those undrafted guys from my extended draft board.

Of those Baker/Sokol/Lowson/Partington are the mature agers.

Newman/Murray/Schmidt went undrafted due to lack of athleticism. The others all could have but weren't preferences. But with the way they impact games I don't feel they require it. Sokol isn't quick either but is quick of mind and has the endurance - he received a more serious look compared to those other guys.

Basically none of these guys were preferred options more so than having red flags or turnoffs that would have too many people saying they wouldn't draft them. Shute has class and production, Baker production off hb, Sokol scoreboard impact/marking, Partington performance, Paul-Oea brings the fwd pressure to a high level, Newman, Hilder, Finlay and Murray 1v1 and intercepting are good KPDs, Gore hits the scoreboard like crazy, Davies intercepts to a high level and can rebound, Schmidt is a powerful ruckman and follows up well and can take a grab. For me they're all well or well enough performed and have the points of difference to have a shot at AFL level of doing something.
 

briztoon

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Josh Shute, Angus Baker, Ben Sokol, Sam Lowson, Luke Partington, Hewago Paul-Oea, Brodie Newman, Dyson Hilder, Karl Finlay, Josh Gore, Jackson Davies, Nicholas Murray and Bailey Schmidt are those undrafted guys from my extended draft board.

Of those Baker/Sokol/Lowson/Partington are the mature agers.

Newman/Murray/Schmidt went undrafted due to lack of athleticism. The others all could have but weren't preferences. But with the way they impact games I don't feel they require it. Sokol isn't quick either but is quick of mind and has the endurance - he received a more serious look compared to those other guys.

Basically none of these guys were preferred options more so than having red flags or turnoffs that would have too many people saying they wouldn't draft them. Shute has class and production, Baker production off hb, Sokol scoreboard impact/marking, Partington performance, Paul-Oea brings the fwd pressure to a high level, Newman, Hilder, Finlay and Murray 1v1 and intercepting are good KPDs, Gore hits the scoreboard like crazy, Davies intercepts to a high level and can rebound, Schmidt is a powerful ruckman and follows up well and can take a grab. For me they're all well or well enough performed and have the points of difference to have a shot at AFL level of doing something.
I’m pretty sure Hewago Paul-Oea has one more year on his international scholarship at GC.

I’d have to check, but my guess would be he didn’t nominate for the draft.

Josh Gore stiff to miss out, but GC is pretty loaded for small forward types now with Ainsworth, Buderick, Rankine and Rosas. Add in Flanders, and there’s only so much room on their list for young forward types.
 

Mt Isa Mustang

Senior List
Nov 23, 2019
152
138
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I’m pretty sure Hewago Paul-Oea has one more year on his international scholarship at GC.

I’d have to check, but my guess would be he didn’t nominate for the draft.


Josh Gore stiff to miss out, but GC is pretty loaded for small forward types now with Ainsworth, Buderick, Rankine and Rosas. Add in Flanders, and there’s only so much room on their list for young forward types.
There was some confusion on our board about this, but this seems to be the consensus.
 

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