Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Interesting that quite a few of your top 20 Rewind draft were rookie selections - I counted five in your top 20.

The number of rookies is one of the curious things.

I also found the number of mature agers and those drafted in future years also to be of interest.

It's not all about the top picks in hindsight. Some really exceptional players can come later and aren't necessarily all those who starred through juniors.

 

[Turbocat]

The number of rookies is one of the curious things.

I also found the number of mature agers and those drafted in future years also to be of interest.

It's not all about the top picks in hindsight. Some really exceptional players can come later and aren't necessarily all those who starred through juniors.

WE recently had a bit of debate about early picks for KPF's and traditionally they have had to be picked early in draft ... but I wondering if that is changing now with tac rules etc and other reasons meaning that more compatible KPF come from guys who were not obviously good as a junior?

On a different tangent... just how many 19 year olds are playing in the u18's now? Recently I read that Budda Hockings boy has signed to play with the Falcons as a 19 year old in the hope of showing enough to get picked..

 

[Knightmare]

WE recently had a bit of debate about early picks for KPF's and traditionally they have had to be picked early in draft ... but I wondering if that is changing now with tac rules etc and other reasons meaning that more compatible KPF come from guys who were not obviously good as a junior?

On a different tangent... just how many 19 year olds are playing in the u18's now? Recently I read that Budda Hockings boy has signed to play with the Falcons as a 19 year old in the hope of showing enough to get picked..

Key forwards a bit like ruckmen (though to a lesser extent) are not being picked as extremely highly and it feels mostly from a removal of a kind of bonus weighting that was often placed on the better kpps which has seen a lot of the time over the past 15 years kpps going earlier than they should. So I consider things roughly around where they should be from a drafting perspective with kpps being taken more closely to where their ability suggests they should. I still feel and clubs also seem to based on what they pay both in trades and in $ for the best KPPs more than is paid for players in other positions a lot of the time, but though the draft as kpps tend to come good later there is at the same time more margin for error than there is with say the top midfield prospects and with that greater element of risk the removal of draft day weighting of the best kpps I consider sensible.

I haven't seen this years lists but there might be on average around five a side in the TAC Cup and those numbers are fairly consistent from year to year. Always plenty of good overagers.

 

[Knightmare]

2015 AFL Draft - the real top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25993761/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2015-draft

 

[Crow till I die]

2015 AFL Draft - the real top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25993761/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2015-draft

No tom Doedee? or is it a bit early for him having only come in last year as a regular and coming 2nd in the rising star

 

[Knightmare]

No tom Doedee? or is it a bit early for him having only come in last year as a regular and coming 2nd in the rising star

Was on my list until the last moment.

Excellent interceptor but doesn't have as complete of a game as the others on the list.

 

[Crow till I die]

Was on my list until the last moment.

Excellent interceptor but doesn't have as complete of a game as the others on the list.

Interesting and I respect your opinion as this is what this forum is all about, although I am a little curious how Jake Lever was rated as the 2nd best player from the 2014 draft and Doedee misses out on the top 20 from the 2016 draft. Both players statistically measure up very very close statistically from Levers standout 2017 and Doedee's 2018 freshman year. Maybe the class of 2016 is just far stronger than the class of 2014?

We at the crows feel that Doedee is an upgrade on Lever, but that is just us I suppose

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...&pid1=4177&pid2=4027&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2017

 

[foodles05]

Can I ask why your 2019 draft almanac seems to be about any draft apart from the 2019? Seems a misleading title.

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting and I respect your opinion as this is what this forum is all about, although I am a little curious how Jake Lever was rated as the 2nd best player from the 2014 draft and Doedee misses out on the top 20 from the 2016 draft. Both players statistically measure up very very close statistically from Levers standout 2017 and Doedee's 2018 freshman year. Maybe the class of 2016 is just far stronger than the class of 2014?

We at the crows feel that Doedee is an upgrade on Lever, but that is just us I suppose

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy...&pid1=4177&pid2=4027&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2017

7cm and better capacity to play as a KPP while Doedee is only effective as a roaming intercept marking defender.

Lever is hugely better 1v1 defence - Doedee is a liability 1v1 while Lever loses very few and actually wins around half (a much improved area of Lever's game). Generates more drive from defence. Better upside.

I consider Lever one of the 1-3 most valuable key defenders in the game.

Doedee something more like Adelaide's roughly 15th best - which is still very good with Adelaide's top 15 exceptional.

Can I ask why your 2019 draft almanac seems to be about any draft apart from the 2019? Seems a misleading title.

The thread will contain 2019 content when the season begins and games are underway. I produce weekly AFL Draft articles and produce monthly power rankings. Until then, I may as well get the conversation started and take questions on 2019 and drafts past or whatever may interest people until the season is underway.

 

[Crow till I die]

7cm and better capacity to play as a KPP while Doedee is only effective as a roaming intercept marking defender.

Lever is hugely better 1v1 defence - Doedee is a liability 1v1 while Lever loses very few and actually wins around half (a much improved area of Lever's game). Generates more drive from defence. Better upside.

I consider Lever one of the 1-3 most valuable key defenders in the game.

Doedee something more like Adelaide's roughly 15th best - which is still very good with Adelaide's top 15 exceptional.



The thread will contain 2019 content when the season begins and games are underway. I produce weekly AFL Draft articles and produce monthly power rankings. Until then, I may as well get the conversation started and take questions on 2019 and drafts past or whatever may interest people until the season is underway.

Fair enough. I tend to disagree with lever and his ability to play key defender as he was more times than not a liability for the crows when he had to play as a key defender however maybe he can improve one day and develop better into one. As for one of the 3 top key defenders in the game i think rance, talia, j mcgovern might be ahead of him at a pinch

But again it is just different opinions so all good

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough. I tend to disagree with lever and his ability to play key defender as he was more times than not a liability for the crows when he had to play as a key defender however maybe he can improve one day and develop better into one. As for one of the 3 top key defenders in the game i think rance, talia, j mcgovern might be ahead of him at a pinch

But again it is just different opinions so all good

I agree with you on Lever at the Crows. He wasn't a good stopper or 1v1 player with Adelaide. That changed this year with Melbourne though.

To quote the AFL Prospectus 2019: 'Lever lost just four of his 26 defensive one-on-one contests and won the contest 50% of the time - the sixth best winning rate of all players to defend at least 10 contests. When Lever went down, Melbourne's defence struggled, conceding a goal from an inside 50 the third-most often of any side from rounds 12-23 compared to the eighth most often from rounds 1-11.'

So it's an area that has gone from weakness to an area where he's pretty capable now and does more than just intercepts/rebounds and has that complete game by position.

 

[Bring back Bas]

7cm and better capacity to play as a KPP while Doedee is only effective as a roaming intercept marking defender.

Lever is hugely better 1v1 defence - Doedee is a liability 1v1 while Lever loses very few and actually wins around half (a much improved area of Lever's game). Generates more drive from defence. Better upside.

I consider Lever one of the 1-3 most valuable key defenders in the game.

Doedee something more like Adelaide's roughly 15th best - which is still very good with Adelaide's top 15 exceptional.



The thread will contain 2019 content when the season begins and games are underway. I produce weekly AFL Draft articles and produce monthly power rankings. Until then, I may as well get the conversation started and take questions on 2019 and drafts past or whatever may interest people until the season is underway.

Good on you for having a go at redoing previous drafts. It isn't an easy thing to do and you are always going to cop criticism. Your 2015 draft is a bit different to how I would have it but one thing that stands out is that 3 years into their career isn't enough time to accurately judge players. A lot of the players in your top 20 are obviously there on potential still (e.g. McKay ahead of Papley). In doing this exercise what year have you found is the first point when you think you can accurately compare players without needing to factor in potential?

Just a note on your above point. Tom Doedee is a very good defensive player. It is actually a stronger part of his game than his intercept marking - which is as you know very strong. You are correct that he will never be a key defender at his height but as a medium defender he would be as good defensively as anyone going around. You may remember he was drafted as a lock-down defender with very little offensive game. Don't take this a a criticism - I don't expect you to know everything about every player in the competition as well as all the u18's, this is just a note from a crows supporter who has seen a lot of Doedee play.

 

[Knightmare]

Good on you for having a go at redoing previous drafts. It isn't an easy thing to do and you are always going to cop criticism. Your 2015 draft is a bit different to how I would have it but one thing that stands out is that 3 years into their career isn't enough time to accurately judge players. A lot of the players in your top 20 are obviously there on potential still (e.g. McKay ahead of Papley). In doing this exercise what year have you found is the first point when you think you can accurately compare players without needing to factor in potential?

Just a note on your above point. Tom Doedee is a very good defensive player. It is actually a stronger part of his game than his intercept marking - which is as you know very strong. You are correct that he will never be a key defender at his height but as a medium defender he would be as good defensively as anyone going around. You may remember he was drafted as a lock-down defender with very little offensive game. Don't take this a a criticism - I don't expect you to know everything about every player in the competition as well as all the u18's, this is just a note from a crows supporter who has seen a lot of Doedee play.

Only three years in it's a lot of projecting ahead. KPPs aren't usually who they'll be until season four. Ruckmen usually need to hit 25 until they're who they'll be. Some guys may develop later and only just now be showing signs - Francis being a key example of this looking like one of the game's best late season after barely playing before that.

When I watch Doedee (and of course I don't watch every game as a fan will) I find he's mostly floating and intercepting rather than finding an opponent and when he is 1v1 I haven't noticed him having much success. Champion Data's notes back up my perception here but I'll continue watching with interest to see if he develops a better balance. I find it interesting your observations differ to my own. In any case I'll look out for those aspects when watching him as different evaluations suggest a review to confirm one way or the other would be useful for accuracy of opinion.

 

[Zurgblade]

Hey KM, besides some of the standout WA performers in Luke Jackson, Rhai Arn Cox, Mitchell Georgiades, who else have you ear marked to watch closely this year from WA?

 

[Davo-27]

Hey KM, besides some of the standout WA performers in Luke Jackson, Rhai Arn Cox, Mitchell Georgiades, who else have you ear marked to watch closely this year from WA?

Jeremy Sharp should be in that list as well imo.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, besides some of the standout WA performers in Luke Jackson, Rhai Arn Cox, Mitchell Georgiades, who else have you ear marked to watch closely this year from WA?

Jeremy Sharp should be on that list. Also like Deven Robertson who is at this stage WA's best ball winning mid.

 

[Crow till I die]

Hey Knightmare - where do you see Cam Taheny in the overall scheme for 2019 at this early stage. My lad goes to his school and the guy is an incredible high jumper and he has sublime football skills. Is he a chance to make the top 10?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Was on my list until the last moment.

Excellent interceptor but doesn't have as complete of a game as the others on the list.

and yet you have Burton at 11.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare - where do you see Cam Taheny in the overall scheme for 2019 at this early stage. My lad goes to his school and the guy is an incredible high jumper and he has sublime football skills. Is he a chance to make the top 10?

He's in my top 10 at this stage and is right in the mix to go top 5 if he has a strong season. SA recruiters love him.

and yet you have Burton at 11.

Has more games behind him, more versatile with the capacity also to play forward. He's another who like Doedee I don't regard highly defensively but I favour his rebounding capabilities of the two.

Could end up being one I've overestimated. As with any young players, it's a case of waiting and seeing.

 

[Crow till I die]

He's in my top 10 at this stage and is right in the mix to go top 5 if he has a strong season. SA recruiters love him.



Has more games behind him, more versatile with the capacity also to play forward. He's another who like Doedee I don't regard highly defensively but I favour his rebounding capabilities of the two.

Could end up being one I've overestimated. As with any young players, it's a case of waiting and seeing.

Cheers knightmare

 

[HolyRioli]

2015 AFL Draft - the real top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25993761/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2015-draft

Hi Knightmare

Shouldn't Menegola technically qualify for an earlier draft do-over? He was rookied by both Hawthorn and Fremantle prior to his Geelong drafting, and both of these as a mature ager if I remember correctly.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare

Shouldn't Menegola technically qualify for an earlier draft do-over? He was rookied by both Hawthorn and Fremantle prior to his Geelong drafting, and both of these as a mature ager if I remember correctly.

You're right and something I realised after the fact in going through the 2015 pool.

He would slot in at number 11 in my 2014 re-do and everyone else shuffles down a spot.

 

[Sector 7G]

2015 AFL Draft - the real top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25993761/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2015-draft

Great to see you acknowledging SOS's ability to pick talls, with McKay and Curnow who were both outside your top 20 now in the top 10.

 

[Knightmare]

Great to see you acknowledging SOS's ability to pick talls, with McKay and Curnow who were both outside your top 20 now in the top 10.

Talls particularly I've always had strong opinions on.

If they're good. I give them credit. When they're bad. I don't want them wasting list positions. If I can't get good talls. I'll play small until I can get them for the right price.

It tends to be easy for bad teams to load up on good KPPs and hard for good teams due to the nature of most of the good ones tending to go early in drafts. So you'll have your Carlton's, Brisbane's. GWS' and Gold Coast's who have spent extended periods down AFL ladders with long lists of good young KPPs and the better sides having very few or none. For those teams spending that time down the bottom, I think the key is being a lot more selective with good KPPs and going with them when they're both the clear best available and projected 15 year KPPs, plug those guys in and otherwise make a focus on filling out the rest of the positions on your squad so you actually build a good team, rather than having more than 8 KPPs on a list at any one time and missing out on someone else who may be able to earn a spot in a different position and is a higher probability recruiting choice.

 

[foodles05]

I must admit I saw Taheny at Norwood league training and he exploded through the middle at one and it was like oh my god. Even one of my mates who is league footballer said did you see that.

He has so much talent but definitely has to learn the professional side of the game and the work it takes to make it. That's the only knock on him at the moment, except perhaps his tank.