Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Thunderstruck]

Bailey Smith reminds me of a young Nathan Buckley, has dash, and is damaging. I will back him in to be slightly better than Walsh at their peaks. Walsh is just so far ahead of everyone else at a younger age because he prepares like a seasoned AFL 100game+ veteran. He's already at that level so it's up to others to catch up. He'll get stronger but he's in no way like a Judd or Dangerfield, they are proper explosive power mids which Walsh will not be, you can see that in body composite, general play and running style already. He'll still be a gun, and closest comparison for mine is Adam Treloar, but to a more elite level.

 

[Ishikawa]

Bailey Smith reminds me of a young Nathan Buckley, has dash, and is damaging. I will back him in to be slightly better than Walsh at their peaks. Walsh is just so far ahead of everyone else at a younger age because he prepares like a seasoned AFL 100game+ veteran. He's already at that level so it's up to others to catch up. He'll get stronger but he's in no way like a Judd or Dangerfield, they are proper explosive power mids which Walsh will not be, you can see that in body composite, general play and running style already. He'll still be a gun, and closest comparison for mine is Adam Treloar, but to a more elite level.

Quite interesting how people construe things in certain ways that suit a pre-defined argument.

Smith was reported as one of the most dedicated, if not OCD in his preparation and discipline to become successful.

'Miles ahead': Smith's discipline sets him apart

He trains twice a day, cooks and plans every meal and has vowed to not taste alcohol until his AFL career is over. No BS. Just Bailey Smith.

www.theage.com.au

Smith wouldn’t be the only draftee who plans to stay away from the booze, but his dedication to his diet and personalised training program is unlikely to be matched.
Even during his exam period, Smith still trains twice a day, as he has done all year.
Running and skills in the morning, then study, followed by weights in the afternoon.

But, here’s the catch; he’s only allowed to eat between 2-9pm.
“I’ve always been a good eater, I’ve just become a lot better with planning out what I eat and when I eat it,” Smith said.
When Smith talks about his diet, it would make the average person feel guilty.
It doesn’t exactly get you salivating.
His current go-to meals include: egg whites and soy sauce with spinach, ham and Vita-Weats with spinach and a lot of chicken breast and green beans.

He’s even found sugar-free tomato sauce, which he sometimes allows himself to have on the side.
“It’s only 10 calories per 18-gram serve, which is good,” Smith said.
“It probably is a bit obsessive, but it’s just me doing what I love.
“I do skills and running in the morning, that burns your carb stores and then I have a coffee. I don’t like coffee but it just keeps me fresh.
“Then I study, then I eat, then I’ll hit the gym full of fuel.”

His running and skills work, usually done with his father Nick, is no walk in the park, either.
An average morning would entail three 800-metre efforts, followed by 10x400s and 10x200s.
Then it’s time to get the footy out.

I have no dog in this fight, both are and will be fantastic players and yes it's not inconceivable that Smith does ultimately become the better player due to having the extra pace and power to Walsh. But let's not go down the path of these disingenuous arguments.

 

[Knightmare]

Bailey Smith reminds me of a young Nathan Buckley, has dash, and is damaging. I will back him in to be slightly better than Walsh at their peaks. Walsh is just so far ahead of everyone else at a younger age because he prepares like a seasoned AFL 100game+ veteran. He's already at that level so it's up to others to catch up. He'll get stronger but he's in no way like a Judd or Dangerfield, they are proper explosive power mids which Walsh will not be, you can see that in body composite, general play and running style already. He'll still be a gun, and closest comparison for mine is Adam Treloar, but to a more elite level.

There is a fair bit of Buckley. Perhaps not as extreme kicking penetration and I'm unsure whether he'll forward of centre be as dominant, or overhead. But the ball winning/speed/endurance and really nice skills and add in the professionalism, I can see where you're coming from.

 

[gandaal]

Bailey Smith reminds me of a young Nathan Buckley, has dash, and is damaging. I will back him in to be slightly better than Walsh at their peaks. Walsh is just so far ahead of everyone else at a younger age because he prepares like a seasoned AFL 100game+ veteran. He's already at that level so it's up to others to catch up. He'll get stronger but he's in no way like a Judd or Dangerfield, they are proper explosive power mids which Walsh will not be, you can see that in body composite, general play and running style already. He'll still be a gun, and closest comparison for mine is Adam Treloar, but to a more elite level.

Wow, the reasons people come up with to claim that certain players are #betterthanwalsh is getting more hilarious by the day.

Walsh better prepared than Smith?

'Obsessed' mid rockets into top-10 calculations

Gruelling pre-season pays off for leading draft prospect

m.afl.com.au

Bailey Smith was drafted with 10 extra kg of muscle but Walsh was ready made at 74 kg.

 

[Davo-27]

Walsh and Smith were both elite players in 2018 draft pool, so they are/were already considered equals, who will be slightly better is neither here nor there for me, Walsh was considered the safest bet as he would most likely be able to transfer his game quicker therefore number 1, whereas Smith maybe had the better game style but would take time and not be as guaranteed.

thats the main reason Walsh was 1 and Smith was taken a little later, when drafting kids guarantees are worth more than speculation i would think

getting 25 disposals out of Walsh straight away is a win, 17 disposals from Smith is a win, if they average the same disposals per game then thats where some differences come into play, Walsh the better clearance player and Smith the better speed and DE% player, both have high end endurance and work rate for mids, both slightly different but both are high end mids, in Carltons case they didnt have time to put into Smith, they needed results and a guarantee, which makes Walsh the perfect fit imo.

any of the top 10 last year couldve gone pick 1, thats how good the elite group was last year

 

[gandaal]

any of the top 10 last year couldve gone pick 1, thats how good the elite group was last year

No. Only four, maybe 5, were considered possible pick 1s. Smith isn't one of those 4 or 5.

It's true to say that 10 of the top 11 could've gone number 1 in other years.

 

[Mutineer]

Walsh and Smith were both elite players in 2018 draft pool, so they are/were already considered equals, who will be slightly better is neither here nor there for me, Walsh was considered the safest bet as he would most likely be able to transfer his game quicker therefore number 1, whereas Smith maybe had the better game style but would take time and not be as guaranteed.

thats the main reason Walsh was 1 and Smith was taken a little later, when drafting kids guarantees are worth more than speculation i would think

getting 25 disposals out of Walsh straight away is a win, 17 disposals from Smith is a win, if they average the same disposals per game then thats where some differences come into play, Walsh the better clearance player and Smith the better speed and DE% player, both have high end endurance and work rate for mids, both slightly different but both are high end mids, in Carltons case they didnt have time to put into Smith, they needed results and a guarantee, which makes Walsh the perfect fit imo.

any of the top 10 last year couldve gone pick 1, thats how good the elite group was last year

Add to that interstate recruiters were wary of picking Smith because of a few things he said prior to the draft and a definite vibe that he was risk to head back to Melbourne at the first opportunity.

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Gee there must be some good players if Liam Henry is rated there.

 

[Knightmare]

Gee there must be some good players if Liam Henry is rated there.

11-15 in my view is the suitable range to rank Henry. He does have his fans and some who have him inside their top 10s. From my top 10, I'd struggle to see Henry displacing any of those guys.

 

[RUNVS]

Genuine question. Swans have pick 4 and are in desperate need for an in and under midfielder who can win a lot of clearances. What sort of players would be in our range with pick 4, knowing we are not getting Rowell or Anderson?

 

[Thunderstruck]

Wow, the reasons people come up with to claim that certain players are #betterthanwalsh is getting more hilarious by the day.

Walsh better prepared than Smith?

'Obsessed' mid rockets into top-10 calculations

Gruelling pre-season pays off for leading draft prospect

m.afl.com.au

Bailey Smith was drafted with 10 extra kg of muscle but Walsh was ready made at 74 kg.

This is merely one article. Smith prepares brilliantly no doubt but that is just one aspect, you ask anyone inside the Carlton circle about his preparation and get back to me. His complete professionalism has been very well documented and is just one of many reasons (a big one at that) as to why he is going so well and better than anyone else including Smith. Plenty of kids dominate Under 18's and then start slowly in the AFL as they are not mentally or physically there, some more of one than another.

Once you see enough underage footy, you can pick the ones that will have the good first years and the ones that won't, Walsh certainly was a no brainer, but the difference between Walsh to his ceiling is less than Smith or Rozee to their ceiling right now, that is fairly clear. If Walsh improved to the rate the others will, he'd end up better than Matthews, Voss, Buckley and Harvey. Context is required here.

 

[Knightmare]

Genuine question. Swans have pick 4 and are in desperate need for an in and under midfielder who can win a lot of clearances. What sort of players would be in our range with pick 4, knowing we are not getting Rowell or Anderson?

Brodie Kemp or Deven Robertson would be the guys for the role. Could probably move that pick down a few places though and get a future pick or move one of the other picks up.

This is merely one article. Smith prepares brilliantly no doubt but that is just one aspect, you ask anyone inside the Carlton circle about his preparation and get back to me. His complete professionalism has been very well documented and is just one of many reasons (a big one at that) as to why he is going so well and better than anyone else including Smith. Plenty of kids dominate Under 18's and then start slowly in the AFL as they are not mentally or physically there, some more of one than another.

Once you see enough underage footy, you can pick the ones that will have the good first years and the ones that won't, Walsh certainly was a no brainer, but the difference between Walsh to his ceiling is less than Smith or Rozee to their ceiling right now, that is fairly clear. If Walsh improved to the rate the others will, he'd end up better than Matthews, Voss, Buckley and Harvey. Context is required here.

My view mirrors your second paragraph. I'm not seeing what Walsh is adding to his game that is so radically different/new to what he already does. Smith on the other hand hasn't had those same midfield minutes as Walsh, so people aren't fully aware yet of exactly how good he is, and the key with him is he has a combination of points of difference with his sheer power (strength/acceleration) - both better than Walsh's and his kicking that suggest there is more to work with.

The key message should be that Walsh will be one of the best midfielders in the competition, but Smith shouldn't be slept on. He has the scope to be as good or better if he remains healthy and gets regular midfield minutes for the Dogs as the more damaging of the two. And that's not suggesting Walsh gets empty numbers, not at all, but rather that Smith really can impact games and you can feel his impact per possession is higher again relative to that of Walsh.

 

[gandaal]

This is merely one article. Smith prepares brilliantly no doubt but that is just one aspect, you ask anyone inside the Carlton circle about his preparation and get back to me. His complete professionalism has been very well documented and is just one of many reasons (a big one at that) as to why he is going so well and better than anyone else including Smith. Plenty of kids dominate Under 18's and then start slowly in the AFL as they are not mentally or physically there, some more of one than another.

Once you see enough underage footy, you can pick the ones that will have the good first years and the ones that won't, Walsh certainly was a no brainer, but the difference between Walsh to his ceiling is less than Smith or Rozee to their ceiling right now, that is fairly clear. If Walsh improved to the rate the others will, he'd end up better than Matthews, Voss, Buckley and Harvey. Context is required here.

It isnt just one article. Its repeated again and again. Bailey Smith was almost OCD in his preparation. You're wrong.

AFL draft 2018: Bailey Smith's discipline sets him apart

amp.theage.com.au

AFL draft 2018: Bailey Smith is a one-of-a-kind prospect who loves his exhaustive lifestyle

Torture runs and calorie counting: The obsessive mind of one-of-a-kind Draft hope

www.foxsports.com.au

Tomorrow's Heroes: Draft's most dedicated looms as top-10 pick

Bailey Smith had eyed off - and prepared for - an AFL career since his early teenage years

m.afl.com.au

Walsh is an utter professional but Smith took it to a whole new level. Smith's preparation was insane. Smith was also drafted 9 kgs heavier. Walsh was a very skinny 74 kg.

Smith has absolutely no upside when it comes to his conditioning. Walsh is more ready this year not because of better preparation but because he's a far better athlete and prospect. Simple as that.

 

[gandaal]

Brodie Kemp or Deven Robertson would be the guys for the role. Could probably move that pick down a few places though and get a future pick or move one of the other picks up.



My view mirrors your second paragraph. I'm not seeing what Walsh is adding to his game that is so radically different/new to what he already does. Smith on the other hand hasn't had those same midfield minutes as Walsh, so people aren't fully aware yet of exactly how good he is, and the key with him is he has a combination of points of difference with his sheer power (strength/acceleration) - both better than Walsh's and his kicking that suggest there is more to work with.

The key message should be that Walsh will be one of the best midfielders in the competition, but Smith shouldn't be slept on. He has the scope to be as good or better if he remains healthy and gets regular midfield minutes for the Dogs as the more damaging of the two. And that's not suggesting Walsh gets empty numbers, not at all, but rather that Smith really can impact games and you can feel his impact per possession is higher again relative to that of Walsh.

Extra strength might have to do with the fact that he was a ready made player unlike Walsh with an advantage of an extra 9 kgs. But Walsh is the one with less development in him.

Yeah but everyone is better than Walsh aren't they? Meanwhile Walsh just broke the possession record for first year players.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Where do you see Kemp going? How much will his acl impact his draft position?

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you see Kemp going? How much will his acl impact his draft position?

Kemp probably goes 6-10. Was in the 3-5 mix before the ACL.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Smith has absolutely no upside when it comes to his conditioning. Walsh is more ready this year not because of better preparation but because he's a far better athlete and prospect. Simple as that.

Smith was still recovering from his Achilles injury a couple weeks before the start of the season. He had no preseason. To make absolute statements like that just devalues the other points you've made because it makes you seem misinformed and biased

 

[Lore]

Comparisons to the number 1 pick in a draft class will always happen, at least until they start collecting senior accolades. It's not unusual and not worth worrying about.

Please be respectful of one another. Playing the man is not acceptable anywhere on BigFooty, least of all here.

 

[x_les_x]

Hey Knighter its that time of year again. Our seasons done although yours is still going. What do you think port has planned this draft year?

Imo i think we need a tall defender, quick small defender and most importantly with Amon most likely leaving a class ball user. I quite fancy Dylan Stephens. We had Lienert (193) and McKenzie (191) playing on resting rucks and have struggled with tall forwards i.e ben brown kicking 10

Seems our young forward and ruck stocks are okay barring frampton also leaving and the development of tobin cox.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knighter its that time of year again. Our seasons done although yours is still going. What do you think port has planned this draft year?

Imo i think we need a tall defender, quick small defender and most importantly with Amon most likely leaving a class ball user. I quite fancy Dylan Stephens. We had Lienert (193) and McKenzie (191) playing on resting rucks and have struggled with tall forwards i.e ben brown kicking 10

Seems our young forward and ruck stocks are okay barring frampton also leaving and the development of tobin cox.

A Fraser McAsey or Dyson Hilder would make sense as key defenders. McAsey may go first round, Hilder possibly mid-draft.

A Louis Butler could receive consideration as a general defender, or as a linebreaker Lachlan Potter, both probably there late. Jackson Davies could push for mid-draft selection and may as an all-around type who can intercept like crazy but also provide rebound would be a good one.

As a local talent, Joshua Shute is one I consider underrated and like as a fit, probably on a wing. Has a lot of class, very silky and quality ball user.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Genuine question. Swans have pick 4 and are in desperate need for an in and under midfielder who can win a lot of clearances. What sort of players would be in our range with pick 4, knowing we are not getting Rowell or Anderson?

The player you seek is.... GREEN

Pull the trigger at 4..

 

[Schtinker]

Whereabouts in the draft do you see Jaxon Prior and Riley Garcia going?

 

[Warhorse]

I would take Smith over Walsh and it's not even close. Smith is the next Ablett jnr.

 

[Knightmare]

The player you seek is.... GREEN

Pull the trigger at 4..

It's more a case of when GWS match the bid (and I assume they would), who Sydney pick then?

If Sydney retain the pick of course if no one has bid on Green, it's a no brainer.

Whereabouts in the draft do you see Jaxon Prior and Riley Garcia going?

Garcia did an ACL so it's unclear if he's picked. If he is it's late/rookie.

Jaxon Prior having played a couple of league games and holding his own is a good chance mid draft.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Genuine question. Swans have pick 4 and are in desperate need for an in and under midfielder who can win a lot of clearances. What sort of players would be in our range with pick 4, knowing we are not getting Rowell or Anderson?

I actually think Kemp will also be gone by the time Sydney pick. I reckon they'll take Serong.