Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Yeah I'm not averse to getting a mature player. But just wondering who we might take with our solitary semi-decent ND pick. Sokol is an interesting one. Not sure he's quite what WC need.

Sokol wouldn't by any means be my priority for WC. Schloithe more-so is the ideal fit, and even Bolton are the two I look at specifically for WC as plug and play.

Who exactly WC have in mind is difficult to know given how late WC come into the draft.

For value mid-draft I'm a Ryan Byrnes fan as this year's most underrated mid.

KM did your reckon there will be a bid for Henry before freo pick at 10?

It's possible there may be.

With Melbourne missing out on Jamie Elliott and some talk about consideration of Weightman after they've moved into pick 9, if they're interested in Weightman, they should be bidding on Henry first with Henry in my view the better talent whether forward or used up the field.

Hypothetically speaking Knightmare where do you see Jack Martin being picked if he were to enter the national draft

Also how is Maurice Rioli Jnr tracking?

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Hard to say where Martin is rated in clubland and I suggest from club to club there would be wild variations in views given his talent but inconsistent play at AFL level to date.

My personal view is Martin is worth around pick 15 in this draft.

As for Maurice Rioli, he isn't one of the top prospects for next year and is one who hopefully gets a good number of opportunities for Oakleigh next year, after receiving the three NAB League games for NT this season to give us a better feel for where he sits in next year's pool.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare with Will Gould I see a bit of Steven May in him, as a slightly undersized key defender who is adept at playing 1v1 or as an interceptor. Do you think that is a fair comparison?

I initially compared Gould to Steven May with the exact same thought process, though I'm thinking of him less as a key defender now and more as a rebounding general defender who will take kickouts with that being more how he has been used this year.

He's a little more Hurn than May, but does have a blend of both to an extent.

 

[UYD 4 Life]

KM any chance you could take your current top 20 players for this year's draft and rank them purely on foot skills?

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting rating for Adelaide. An E

With what we had to play for, I'm interested in what sort of deals you would have expected. Tell me what you'd have expected to get a C, or even an A!

When you have 28yo guys who can't get a game in the starting 22 in the 12th best team, or a couple of 30+ year olds and you get 3rd and 4th next year when you want academy picks, surely it's not an E! Maybe a C,bbut not an E.
Seems a little bit of trolling here, maybe jumping on the media crows bashing bandwagon. I respect your draft intel, but perhaps you didn't understand the strategy moving forward before writing

As a concept, rebuilding or building through the draft I regard not only as a poor strategy but a strategy that has little viability. Clubs who try get stuck in rebuilding loops and are unable to get out of it - see Carlton pre Judd, see Richmond before they started trading for talent under Hardwick, see Melbourne pre Paul Roos, see Brisbane pre Hodge, see Gold Coast, see GWS pre Mumford/Shaw. The special circumstances it can work is when not only the coaching group and other staff are of a high level, recruiters pick the right talent, but it also takes a strong foundation of veteran leadership and a strong culture created around them as we've seen in Brisbane these past two seasons, as with a lot of the instances of a number the better AFL sides coming up over the past 15 years with Geelong, Hawthorn (08), Collingwood and St Kilda those who did it but had that leadership and coaching/staff/recruiting combination with the stars aligning to make it work.

My view is the players departing from Adelaide all left for unders and were best 22 players (with the exception of Jacobs). Jacobs and Betts are the only two I considered were expendable of those who left with Adelaide worse in the short-medium term as a consequence.

From a long term standpoint I don't see Adelaide as any better. The picks gained were of little significance with the relevant draft knowledge this year and next year being both drafts are not only below average in strength but also relatively shallow. Picks in the second round are low percentage picks this year and next year and likely lower than normal. Future picks help with Edwards next year and having the points towards him, but Adelaide hardly needed to trade that much just to get points towards that.

Had Adelaide retained some of those leavers and/or added some players from opposition clubs of genuine best 22 quality I would have been a lot more positive towards Adelaide. Each of Keath/Jenkins/Ellis-Yolmen/Greenwood I view as underrated and people's responses to me describing each of them as best 22 quality players and Keath as one of Adelaide's best only speaks to that separation in my view on their respective capabilities to how a lot of Adelaide people seemed to view them. Keath was one of this year's best tall defenders in the competition. Jenkins has kicked 2 goals each of the past 6 years and is best 22 on any list for mine on span of work. While Ellis-Yolmen and Greenwood specifically at stoppages are among the most effective in the competition even if their games are far from complete.

 

[Inzy7]

Hey Knightmare what do you see Carlton targeting with the picks they have??

Can you see us trading pick 9 and trying to get our hands on more picks??

Would Sokol make it to our later picks and would he fit into our team??

 

[Knightmare]

KM any chance you could take your current top 20 players for this year's draft and rank them purely on foot skills?

To put them roughly into tiers. And there is so much variation in why one ahead of another. Whether it's hurt factor, vision, decision making, placement out in front to lead onto, penetration, speed they move it on etc. Rowell many will look at with surprise to see in the bottom group. His kicking is mostly reliable though has had inconsistencies - his biggest issue is the speed with which he moves it on and particularly following marks/frees. I'd also say of Rowell he relatively lacks hurt factor by foot, favouring short, simple passes which isn't at all problematic and in many respects a good thing.
Then you can have a Henry in that top group who lacks penetration but his precision kicking, placement out in front + vision and decision making makes it hard to put almost anyone in front of him.

--
Young
Henry
Gould
Ash
Sharp
--
McAsey
Maginness
Kemp
Williams
Anderson
Flanders
Stephens
Schoenberg
Byrnes
Nyuon
--
Green
Rowell
Serong
Robertson
Jackson

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare what do you see Carlton targeting with the picks they have??

Can you see us trading pick 9 and trying to get our hands on more picks??

Would Sokol make it to our later picks and would he fit into our team??

Lachlan Ash, Dylan Stephens and Luke Jackson are the three I see Carlton strongly considering at 9 depending on availability and making the most sense. My view is Carlton at 9 are in a sweet spot and should retain the pick and enjoy the leftovers that are there to get.

Sokol I like late draft and really like as a fit for Carlton. Any team looking for a general forward who can play round one should be considering him strongly. Mid-late draft Sokol could come under consideration, but he's not a certain selection at this stage with those mature agers often difficult to predict.

 

[Chaisa]

Each of Keath/Jenkins/Ellis-Yolmen/Greenwood I view as underrated and people's responses to me describing each of them as best 22 quality players and Keath as one of Adelaide's best only speaks to that separation in my view on their respective capabilities to how a lot of Adelaide people seemed to view them. Keath was one of this year's best tall defenders in the competition. Jenkins has kicked 2 goals each of the past 6 years and is best 22 on any list for mine on span of work. While Ellis-Yolmen and Greenwood specifically at stoppages are among the most effective in the competition even if their games are far from complete.

I agree those losses hurt - but I will say in all cases bar Jenkins they wanted to go and had only a moderate track record behind them. Not a lot Adelaide could do.

In any case, can you really fit both Ellis-Yolmen and Greenwood in the same team given you're already having the Crouch bros and Sloane, and need onball minutes for Jones? Losing both a bit of a clanger though.

As for Keath, it's worth noting how good Lever looked pre-Melbourne and how good Doedee looked last year. Can't help but think Adelaide's structure makes a guy like Keath look better than he actually is. Doedee is a good replacement and Butts (who I remember you rating hard in his junior days) is apparently tracking very well at SANFL level.

Jenkins is an odd one. I can see why keeping him might hinder the development of a Fogarty or a Himmelberg but kicking him out entirely when he's still clearly AFL standard is a strange move, I agree. Very surprised that few clubs were actually keen on him.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Lachlan Ash, Dylan Stephens and Luke Jackson are the three I see Carlton strongly considering at 9 depending on availability and making the most sense. My view is Carlton at 9 are in a sweet spot and should retain the pick and enjoy the leftovers that are there to get.

Sokol I like late draft and really like as a fit for Carlton. Any team looking for a general forward who can play round one should be considering him strongly. Mid-late draft Sokol could come under consideration, but he's not a certain selection at this stage with those mature agers often difficult to predict.

Lachlan Ash would be an amazing get at pick 9.

Interesting watching watching Dylan Stephens’ highlights. He looks like the player we were hoping Lochie O’Brien would be. He seems to have that edge in acceleration/agility and willingness to take the game on that is missing from O’Brien’s make up. (O’Brien is fantastic at covering ground and has a good top speed, he’s just not explosive enough to break out of congestion.) These are all qualities that Zac Fisher has but having the extra 6cms in height should see him better able to break and stick tackles as he matures physically.

We definitely need some line breaking run in the side so both Ash and Stephens appeal.


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[scoman]

Hey Knightmare, who do you see as possible midfielders available at Lions picks 16 and 21? I'm more I interested in skillful even pacy types who can win their own ball when required as opposed to inside stoppage specialists.

 

[Knightmare]

I agree those losses hurt - but I will say in all cases bar Jenkins they wanted to go and had only a moderate track record behind them. Not a lot Adelaide could do.

In any case, can you really fit both Ellis-Yolmen and Greenwood in the same team given you're already having the Crouch bros and Sloane, and need onball minutes for Jones? Losing both a bit of a clanger though.

As for Keath, it's worth noting how good Lever looked pre-Melbourne and how good Doedee looked last year. Can't help but think Adelaide's structure makes a guy like Keath look better than he actually is. Doedee is a good replacement and Butts (who I remember you rating hard in his junior days) is apparently tracking very well at SANFL level.

Jenkins is an odd one. I can see why keeping him might hinder the development of a Fogarty or a Himmelberg but kicking him out entirely when he's still clearly AFL standard is a strange move, I agree. Very surprised that few clubs were actually keen on him.

I still place the blame squarely on Adelaide.

Why is Greenwood leaving? He's leaving because Adelaide because Gold Coast offered more years.

Why is Ellis-Yolmen leaving? He's a South Australian. But he also wants more years than Adelaide offered.

On Jake Lever, I've felt his play with Melbourne has been strong and actually an improvement in 2018 on what he did with Adelaide previously. He still intercepted/rebounded but as a stopper he became a lot more reliable than he was. I agree to an extent that Adelaide's system allows Doedee to look better than he would elsewhere, and I'd even say the same of Jenkins, but they're still guys where you put them on other teams and they're all walk-up starts, or at least should be based on what they can do.

My view of Keath is he is worth a late first this year. With Western Bulldogs having a lot of surplus midfielders I would have been enquiring into who they would be willing to trade. Liber? McLean? Wallis and a pick?

Hey Knightmare, who do you see as possible midfielders available at Lions picks 16 and 21? I'm more I interested in skillful even pacy types who can win their own ball when required as opposed to inside stoppage specialists.

Deven Robertson may be there at 16. Jeremy Sharp for someone more outside. Cooper Stephens perhaps at that next selection with Trent Rivers, Trent Bianco and Harry Schoenberg others who around there should be in the conversation.

If you want more outside types Sharp and Bianco are more those guys with Sharp having the pace and skill, Bianco the skill.

 

[M Malice]

Deven Robertson may be there at 16. Jeremy Sharp for someone more outside. Cooper Stephens perhaps at that next selection with Trent Rivers, Trent Bianco and Harry Schoenberg others who around there should be in the conversation.

If you want more outside types Sharp and Bianco are more those guys with Sharp having the pace and skill, Bianco the skill.

I like Sharp who is apparently elite by foot and Rivers with x factor and upside at 16 & 21 for us if still available and there is no unexpected slider who we rate higher.

Has Sharp got much of an inside game because Fagan does not rate players who can't at least hold their own on the inside when needed? eg. Cutler & Taylor being traded.

Would you be for us giving up 16 & 21 to move up to a selection in the 8-11 range or do you think we'd get better value sticking with what we have? l'm thinking Ash or Flanders, are they much of a chance to be available at 8-11 in your opinion KM? Maybe we could offer 16, 21 and next years 1st to move up to the top 6?

 

[Knightmare]

I like Sharp who is apparently elite by foot and Rivers with x factor and upside at 16 & 21 for us if still available and there is no unexpected slider who we rate higher.

Has Sharp got much of an inside game because Fagan does not rate players who can't at least hold their own on the inside when needed? eg. Cutler & Taylor being traded.

Would you be for us giving up 16 & 21 to move up to a selection in the 8-11 range or do you think we'd get better value sticking with what we have? l'm thinking Ash or Flanders, are they much of a chance to be available at 8-11 in your opinion KM? Maybe we could offer 16, 21 and next years 1st to move up to the top 6?

Sharp projects as a wing or back flankers. Hasn't shown any inside/contested game.

This year I'm liking the top 10 and after the top 10 I do see a drop off. In saying that, with my feeling being that Will Gould could be there at 16, I'd personally keep the two picks as I don't see him being much worse than anyone who would go at pick 3/4.

If not confident Gould or another notable slider would be there, I'd be open to a trade into the top 10 in Brisbane's situation and Fremantle could be a club to talk to if they think a bid will come on Henry from either Melbourne or Carlton before them.

 

[M Malice]

Sharp projects as a wing or back flankers. Hasn't shown any inside/contested game.

This year I'm liking the top 10 and after the top 10 I do see a drop off. In saying that, with my feeling being that Will Gould could be there at 16, I'd personally keep the two picks as I don't see him being much worse than anyone who would go at pick 3/4.

If not confident Gould or another notable slider would be there, I'd be open to a trade into the top 10 in Brisbane's situation and Fremantle could be a club to talk to if they think a bid will come on Henry from either Melbourne or Carlton before them.

Ahh, thanks KM, that puts me off Sharp though.

 

[Knightmare]

Ahh, thanks KM, that puts me off Sharp though.

For me I don't find it troubling as he has the WAFL League performances on the board and is not only high impact per possession but finding plenty of it.

But it depends on what you're after ultimately.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

Hi Knightmare.

Do you forsee Carlton being in a position to consider Brodie Kemp (should he still be on the board) at #9.

He might be a slow burn with his rehab but may fill that need for a bigger body in the midfield?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare.

Do you forsee Carlton being in a position to consider Brodie Kemp (should he still be on the board) at #9.

He might be a slow burn with his rehab but may fill that need for a bigger body in the midfield?

Kemp could be there and if he is worth strong consideration. As a midfielder he will probably take a few years to come into his own but if you're after high ceiling, Kemp could with time become really good through there and could be a compliment to Cripps and Walsh as not only a ball winner but from the perspective that he has genuine speed, good skills and can also rest forward and become a target there.

 

[Supersuns]

Sharp projects as a wing or back flankers. Hasn't shown any inside/contested game.

This year I'm liking the top 10 and after the top 10 I do see a drop off. In saying that, with my feeling being that Will Gould could be there at 16, I'd personally keep the two picks as I don't see him being much worse than anyone who would go at pick 3/4.

If not confident Gould or another notable slider would be there, I'd be open to a trade into the top 10 in Brisbane's situation and Fremantle could be a club to talk to if they think a bid will come on Henry from either Melbourne or Carlton before them.

Any reason why Gould will slide? Would love if we could get him with pick 15

 

[Knightmare]

Any reason why Gould will slide? Would love if we could get him with pick 15

Size/weight/poor athletic testing. He's probably a 10-20 prospect and is a real chance to be there at 15.

Very much because of his heavier size/body composition he is someone who divides opinions in clubland.

 

[Supersuns]

Size/weight/poor athletic testing. He's probably a 10-20 prospect and is a real chance to be there at 15.

Very much because of his heavier size/body composition he is someone who divides opinions in clubland.

I’m surprised he tested poorly, I saw him play live in the champs and a game for Glenelg and he looked to have a real burst of speed. Just one of those players who test poor but play better? We are desperately needing a decent rebounding defender with Harbrow right at the end and no one else really stepping up so I hope we get him

 

[Knightmare]

I’m surprised he tested poorly, I saw him play live in the champs and a game for Glenelg and he looked to have a real burst of speed. Just one of those players who test poor but play better? We are desperately needing a decent rebounding defender with Harbrow right at the end and no one else really stepping up so I hope we get him

Gould as you say does have a good burst of speed in game.

Some guys test well on the track but can't apply it in game, others look good in game but then don't test that well.

I'm personally more interested in their application of athleticism in game, so I can't say I'm concerned with Gould's testing. He will need to build his endurance and build his size into leaner muscle, but he has game and has the performances on the board, so he's someone I'd be more than happy to select in Gold Coast's position with pick 15.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

So Gould will have his distinct body shape sapped from him just to look like the other thick buggers in the league.

 

[Knightmare]

So Gould will have his distinct body shape sapped from him just to look like the other thick buggers in the league.

My view is there is room in the AFL for all body shapes.

Just like in the NBA Zion Williams has a radically different bodyshape to anyone else in theNBA, and he's going to be all-time dominant despite that.

Gould is no Zion, I'm not thinking dominance like that, but with his unique size and body composition a bit like a Steven May, I feel he can make it work.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

but with his unique size and body composition a bit like a Steven May, I feel he can make it work.

Of the snippets I've seen, I agree with you.

Give Steven May the roosting power of Val Perovic and you've got Gould.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

In fact Knightmare, when Gould makes his senior debut and is entrusted with kicking into play/out of the goal square, I challenge you to shout "WOOF" at the TV.