Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Have you seen any vision of Anthony Treacy looks a good late pick up for WCE.

 

[Misunderstood]

Hi Knightmare in terms of draft for 20 or ranking how high do you rate Jamarra Ugle Hagan? i know you will get this 3 billion times for the next 12 months but i thought id get your honest 2019 opinion? thanks

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Hi Knightmare in terms of draft for 20 or ranking how high do you rate Jamarra Ugle Hagan? i know you will get this 3 billion times for the next 12 months but i thought id get your honest 2019 opinion? thanks

His thoughts on Jamarra are here.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/28191579/afl-draft-************-top-20-prospects-2020

 

[Knightmare]

Have you seen any vision of Anthony Treacy looks a good late pick up for WCE.

Can crumb. Reasonably quick. Good overhead.

Certainly wouldn't have been suitable for selection in the national draft. As a rookie I felt there were better small forward options still available with the sheer depth of small forwards in this draft. Only averages the 1 goal per game and is low production and not much of a tackler. Haven't seen much of him applying forward pressure. Would need to become an elite pressure player before he gets a look in at AFL level realistically.

Hi Knightmare in terms of draft for 20 or ranking how high do you rate Jamarra Ugle Hagan? i know you will get this 3 billion times for the next 12 months but i thought id get your honest 2019 opinion? thanks

I have a clear cut top-5 next year and a 6-25 from there. Ugle-Hagan is one of those 5.

I'll reveal just how high up that top-5 next year in the first of my power rankings for 2020.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Josh Shute, Angus Baker, Ben Sokol, Sam Lowson, Luke Partington, Hewago Paul-Oea, Brodie Newman, Dyson Hilder, Karl Finlay, Josh Gore, Jackson Davies, Nicholas Murray and Bailey Schmidt are those undrafted guys from my extended draft board.

Of those Baker/Sokol/Lowson/Partington are the mature agers.

Newman/Murray/Schmidt went undrafted due to lack of athleticism. The others all could have but weren't preferences. But with the way they impact games I don't feel they require it. Sokol isn't quick either but is quick of mind and has the endurance - he received a more serious look compared to those other guys.

Basically none of these guys were preferred options more so than having red flags or turnoffs that would have too many people saying they wouldn't draft them. Shute has class and production, Baker production off hb, Sokol scoreboard impact/marking, Partington performance, Paul-Oea brings the fwd pressure to a high level, Newman, Hilder, Finlay and Murray 1v1 and intercepting are good KPDs, Gore hits the scoreboard like crazy, Davies intercepts to a high level and can rebound, Schmidt is a powerful ruckman and follows up well and can take a grab. For me they're all well or well enough performed and have the points of difference to have a shot at AFL level of doing something.

Daniel Mott? Thought he’d thrive on an AFL list.

 

[Knightmare]

Daniel Mott? Thought he’d thrive on an AFL list.

High production but low to no impact.

Received strong consideration from a couple of clubs but wasn't on my extended draft board. For me fits that same category with fellow Cannon in Ramsay who Carlton selected with both volume accumulators who don't influence games.

 

[maanco]

Knightmare Who will be the better player Ryan Byrnes or Jack Bytel?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare Who will be the better player Ryan Byrnes or Jack Bytel?

Byrnes for me. Better skills, faster, a better rounded footballer.

 

[maanco]

Byrnes for me. Better skills, faster, a better rounded footballer.

Does that make the 2019 draft deeper?

 

[Knightmare]

Does that make the 2019 draft deeper?

It's comparing a guy I rated inside my top-20 from 2019 (Byrnes) to Bytel who I had in my top-40 in 2018.

I just view Byrnes as significantly underrated relative to this year's draft class.

Neither draft is particularly deep.

The major difference is the top end of 2018 was a lot better. Perhaps one of the best first rounds ever and much better selection of KPPs available to choose from early.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Can crumb. Reasonably quick. Good overhead.

Certainly wouldn't have been suitable for selection in the national draft. As a rookie I felt there were better small forward options still available with the sheer depth of small forwards in this draft. Only averages the 1 goal per game and is low production and not much of a tackler. Haven't seen much of him applying forward pressure. Would need to become an elite pressure player before he gets a look in at AFL level realistically.



I have a clear cut top-5 next year and a 6-25 from there. Ugle-Hagan is one of those 5.

I'll reveal just how high up that top-5 next year in the first of my power rankings for 2020.

I attached some video highlights there like the way he moves, got a lot to work with now he is over his acl
and got his speed back

 

[mustang]

There were a number of analysts who rated Jeka 12 months ago and seemed to jump early on him as an early prospect.

My take differs vastly from the mainstream on Jeka as someone 12 months ago I'd noted as someone I would not draft unless he improved drastically.

I found him to not hit the scoreboard enough (10 goals from 14 games isn't enough), didn't find nearly enough of the footy or take enough marks - often dropping marks and looking mediocre at ground level. I can't say I find him meaningfully better this year. More sure of hands overhead perhaps and decent on the lead but not finding much more of it or hitting the scoreboard any more.

He doesn't tick any of my criteria for key forwards. Doesn't have the production, nor the improvement and he lacks that point of difference that makes him stand out/suggests he can exploit defenders at the next level. He's a good athlete, solid on the lead, but that's not enough. Reminds me a lot of Spencer White for those who watching him 5+ years ago for the Saints, struggling in the VFL to find any consistency.

KM can I ask what we’re your feelings on Mitchell Lewis when he was first drafted why I ask could Jeka come on as well as Lewis has or has Lewis really surprised you also.

 

[Knightmare]

KM can I ask what we’re your feelings on Mitchell Lewis when he was first drafted why I ask could Jeka come on as well as Lewis has or has Lewis really surprised you also.

Lewis is better than Jeka was at the same age and projected to me at the time Lewis looks like a future VFL footballer much more than a future AFL footballer.

Lewis kicked 13 goals from 10 games in his draft year in the TAC Cup. Who knew two years on in the VFL Lewis would be kicking 2 per game? Or in the AFL this year kicking 20 from 12 games and develop as strongly as he did over the second half of the year.

He could take a grab is was tall and was improving. But credit to Hawthorn for developing him on this level because he didn't appear to have enough in the performance or points of difference categories for me to have interest.

If Hawthorn can do the same with Jeka they've worked a miracle because Jeka isn't on the same level as even Lewis was at the same stage, with Jeka someone who is worse for production as a sub 1 goal per game key forward who isn't as strong of a contested mark and doesn't find nearly as much of the footy.

 

[briztoon]

Lewis is better than Jeka was at the same age and projected to me at the time Lewis looks like a future VFL footballer much more than a future AFL footballer.

Lewis kicked 13 goals from 10 games in his draft year in the TAC Cup. Who knew two years on in the VFL Lewis would be kicking 2 per game? Or in the AFL this year kicking 20 from 12 games and develop as strongly as he did over the second half of the year.

He could take a grab is was tall and was improving. But credit to Hawthorn for developing him on this level because he didn't appear to have enough in the performance or points of difference categories for me to have interest.

If Hawthorn can do the same with Jeka they've worked a miracle because Jeka isn't on the same level as even Lewis was at the same stage, with Jeka someone who is worse for production as a sub 1 goal per game key forward who isn't as strong of a contested mark and doesn't find nearly as much of the footy.

What about turning Jeka in to a KPD?

 

[curnow inferno]

KM, do you plan on doing a revised re-do of past 5 or 6 drafts again like you did last summer? with the criteria being who you would take from this point on for rest of their careers rather than what they have achieved so far..

 

[Knightmare]

What about turning Jeka in to a KPD?

That's the more plausible vision I'd consider given the height, athleticism and not great but decent marking, though the reality I've found is he doesn't have the production on the board in any position.

Guys like Hilder/Finlay/Newman/Murray each showed a lot more in defence and all went undrafted, though none at 198cm or as athletic which is Jeka's case and what makes him appeal more to clubs.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, do you plan on doing a revised re-do of past 5 or 6 drafts again like you did last summer? with the criteria being who you would take from this point on for rest of their careers rather than what they have achieved so far..

If I get a fair bit of interest I might go again on the draft re-dos and go 2014-2018 with my top 20. If I get a good number of likes on this post I'll pose the suggestion to ESPN.

As it's not so much a structured time of year where I may get a bit of flexibility, I'm open to suggestions if there is any content people would be interested in me producing either in the leadup to or during the preseason.

 

[LittleG]

If I get a fair bit of interest I might go again on the draft re-dos and go 2014-2018 with my top 20. If I get a good number of likes on this post I'll pose the suggestion to ESPN.

As it's not so much a structured time of year where I may get a bit of flexibility, I'm open to suggestions if there is any content people would be interested in me producing either in the leadup to or during the preseason.

List analysis.
Focused on key players and how they relate to team performance? Looking at a best 22 and talking about the new players or those 11-22, rather than the teams top players we all know about.

 

[weltschmerz]

Who do you think will play first round? Besides the obvious early picks.

 

[I got the outside word]

That's the more plausible vision I'd consider given the height, athleticism and not great but decent marking, though the reality I've found is he doesn't have the production on the board in any position.

Guys like Hilder/Finlay/Newman/Murray each showed a lot more in defence and all went undrafted, though none at 198cm or as athletic which is Jeka's case and what makes him appeal more to clubs.

Could Jeka play ruck if he adds a little bit of height next year?

 

[briztoon]

That's the more plausible vision I'd consider given the height, athleticism and not great but decent marking, though the reality I've found is he doesn't have the production on the board in any position.

Guys like Hilder/Finlay/Newman/Murray each showed a lot more in defence and all went undrafted, though none at 198cm or as athletic which is Jeka's case and what makes him appeal more to clubs.

Could Jeka play ruck if he adds a little bit of height next year?

On a draft focused podcast shortly after the U18 Championships, they had a discussion about Jeka and turning him in to a KPD, and funnily enough, they said Hawthorn would be perfect for him. They discussed how he’d fit in and be developed, in the Hawthorn system. It was a good listen.

 

[I got the outside word]

On a draft focused podcast shortly after the U18 Championships, they had a discussion about Jeka and turning him in to a KPD, and funnily enough, they said Hawthorn would be perfect for him. They discussed how he’d fit in and be developed, in the Hawthorn system. It was a good listen.

Do you happen to have a link?

 

[Knightmare]

Could Jeka play ruck if he adds a little bit of height next year?

Not great at ground level and not sure he'd cover the ground well enough. Would need to not only grow but improve drastically.

Key defence is his better shot. Not dominant or even adequately productive by position which makes forward a big no for me, key defence potentially if his reading and intercepting behind the play is good and he backs himself in enough. I'm more familiar with his play as a forward, but if he can develop that side as Aliir Aliir has since being drafted by Sydney, that may be his way to carving out a niche for himself.

 

[Euku]

Where would you rate riley garcia pre injury

 

[Knightmare]

Where would you rate riley garcia pre injury

Around 40-50. There's a bit to like with him. Good ball winner but moves and uses the ball pretty well.

He was suitable for selection late draft. Just a puzzling pick for the Dogs though who don't need more midfielders and will find a hard time finding a spot for him.