Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Pie 4 Life]

Jesus, if you’re relying on NAB League best on ground lists to help determine your rankings, you’ve no clue.

They can be wildly laughable at times.

Sam Walsh basically never made the Falcons best / was low down on the bests as a point of reference. NAB League clubs are notorious for putting lesser lights up for best-ons to help get the chatter out there (their job is to get as many drafted as possible).

 

[WilloTree]

Just my opinion, but from what I've seen of Chesser he will absolutely be at an AFL club come draft day,

He has a really reliable 'neat' kick, and that's in vogue at the moment.

He also knows when to go hard down the line and when to head inside, which is also part of the modern-day wing.

If he's there at 19 and Freo take him there, I won't be surprised.

 

[eDPS]

Just my opinion, but from what I've seen of Chesser he will absolutely be at an AFL club come draft day,

He has a really reliable 'neat' kick, and that's in vogue at the moment.

He also knows when to go hard down the line and when to head inside, which is also part of the modern-day wing.

If he's there at 19 and Freo take him there, I won't be surprised.

Makes me feel better that I took him at that pick in the Final Siren Podcast Phantom Draft

 

[Knightmare]

Just my opinion, but from what I've seen of Chesser he will absolutely be at an AFL club come draft day,

He has a really reliable 'neat' kick, and that's in vogue at the moment.

He also knows when to go hard down the line and when to head inside, which is also part of the modern-day wing.

If he's there at 19 and Freo take him there, I won't be surprised.

No doubt Chesser will be on an AFL list and there is a good chance he goes first round.

It's the same story with Warner who I didn't include in my 75 either. There is a chance he along with Chesser features inside the first round.

Chesser joining Fremantle at 19 wouldn't surprise me at all. Fremantle want an outside type and if the Dockers don't take NWM earlier, I think that's a likely outcome.

I mostly get the 'idea' of him digging in from watching the game, personally I'm not all that bothered by stats when I've watched a game, especially when I don't have access to CP/UP, and know that a prospect was going at it when it was their time to, I'm happy to 'back my own judgement' in that regard. He was playing Wing and got involved when it was on his side of the ground, I'd be worried if he wasn't able to hold space and decide he wanted to do it all himself

Stats definitely hold value and provide context to what you're seeing. Analysis with stats is missing a considerable part of the picture. If assessing a midfielder in particular, not having those CP numbers would not make evaluating midfielders easy as it's the stat with by far and away the highest correlation with success at AFL level among midfielders.

I'm fortunate enough to have the CP/UP stats for at least the Victorian prospects from their games. I'm happy for you or others any to give me a yell if after stats from this year or years past on a specific player or specific game.

For the first game by Chesser v Oakleigh he had 4cp/20up. I was surprised v Northern to see he had 6cp/8up. Albeit both are pedestrian numbers for only mild impact. In watching the game v Northern, I didn't expect even 6cp from Chesser, my notes from that game were his impact game from his attempts to take on the game with his run rather than winning the hard ball. And given that game felt outsidish, the game v Oakleigh with such a lopsided cp/up ratio tells me that was a very outside game.

 

[Davo-27]

Chesser had a good game the first game i saw him play, he went into the contest and won some hard ball as well as added run(i think it was the Northern Game? not sure), but i agree the other couple games i saw from him were underwhelming(he barely got involved for Country and he did seem to not be on the ground for long but even when he was in the play was very poor) and his injuries didnt help him prove himself, his u16 footage he looks a very loose outside mid which can leave a poor impression if you have any need for him to be an inside mid and not exclusively outside.

in conclusion, i think he should be picked in the draft as he has a good skill set for outside play and potential for inside mid play(if he can be more brave and increase his contested play), he also has good athletic qualities and interviews well, the negatives are injury prone, lacks a good contested side to his game and a lack of proven performance in his draft year, especially his lackluster state game.

Warner from my PoV is being a bit too highly rated based on combine results, he was very middle of the road for WA during the state series.

 

[blueiris]

I want Chesser even more now just to prove Knightmare wrong I feel Chesser will come back and bite him on the arse when he becomes a star

 

[Knightmare]

Chesser had a good game the first game i saw him play, he went into the contest and won some hard ball as well as added run(i think it was the Northern Game? not sure), but i agree the other couple games i saw from him were underwhelming(he barely got involved for Country and he did seem to not be on the ground for long but even when he was in the play was very poor) and his injuries didnt help him prove himself, his u16 footage he looks a very loose outside mid which can leave a poor impression if you have any need for him to be an inside mid and not exclusively outside.

in conclusion, i think he should be picked in the draft as he has a good skill set for outside play and potential for inside mid play(if he can be more brave and increase his contested play), he also has good athletic qualities and interviews well, the negatives are injury prone, lacks a good contested side to his game and a lack of proven performance in his draft year, especially his lackluster state game.

Warner from my PoV is being a bit too highly rated based on combine results, he was very middle of the road for WA during the state series.

Chesser I'm fine with being drafted. Just knowing how highly others rate him, he's one I'm not worried about. And it's a bit the same with Warner. I know I don't rate either of them in a range where if I had a pick I'd end up picking them, so whether they're just in/just out of my top-75, I'm not at all worried as they're not guys I'd be considering to draft anyway with numerous who will go undrafted that I'd be picking ahead of them anyway, as from my perspective at least, better footballers.

I wasn't expecting combine results to boost Warner that far. Over the past couple of weeks, he has for me been that real surprise mover up draft boards I wasn't expecting. A bit like Chesser on a strong Sandringham team, Warner is another who almost in an extent gets lost on a talented East Fremantle team, with a few others on that team I don't necessarily love, but view slightly favourably, as I'd say with Sandringham liking a lot of others to Chesser from that team.

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

So does Knightmare got a final Phantom draft?

 

[Knightmare]

So does Knightmare got a final Phantom draft?

My final phantom draft (every bid, every pick) will be up on ESPN.com.au/afl tomorrow morning.

 

[year of the cat]

My final phantom draft (every bid, every pick) will be up on ESPN.com.au/afl tomorrow morning.

Quick late advice. Don’t have Cats taking Conway with our first few picks.

 

[Prochard123]

Knightmare

Apologies if other variations of the same question has been asked before.

But if Callum Twomey's prediction of Darcy bid at 2 and Daicos bid at 4 is true, then we can trade both 36 and 38 as long as we bring in pick 61 or better back for points.

With that in mind, how do you think we will approach the draft day trading?

Is this 36 + 38 for future 2nd + pick 61 (or another 4th round pick) feasible?

Which clubs would be interested?

 

[Knightmare]

Quick late advice. Don’t have Cats taking Conway with our first few picks.

I don't plan to. Geelong have a lot of young developing rucks, so I'm expecting others to be targeted.

Knightmare

Apologies if other variations of the same question has been asked before.

But if Callum Twomey's prediction of Darcy bid at 2 and Daicos bid at 4 is true, then we can trade both 36 and 38 as long as we bring in pick 61 or better back for points.

With that in mind, how do you think we will approach the draft day trading?

Is this 36 + 38 for future 2nd + pick 61 (or another 4th round pick) feasible?

Which clubs would be interested?

I imagine Collingwood will be cautious and wait to see if GWS bid on Daicos. If they pass or hear from them they're going to pass, Collingwood I imagine would have already done the planning and have another pick swap in mind to move some of those picks out and inside the 2022 draft. Then after the Daicos bid is made by the Suns and matched, likely move back in if there is a particular target at a pick they see good value at.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Knightmare

Apologies if other variations of the same question has been asked before.

But if Callum Twomey's prediction of Darcy bid at 2 and Daicos bid at 4 is true, then we can trade both 36 and 38 as long as we bring in pick 61 or better back for points.

With that in mind, how do you think we will approach the draft day trading?

Is this 36 + 38 for future 2nd + pick 61 (or another 4th round pick) feasible?

Which clubs would be interested?

Id say Port would be interested in that if they are confident the picks come in before Burgoyne.

We have 14 and 60ish at this stage.

We'd like to get 2 earlier picks.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM what are Leek Aleers skills like? All the highlights only really show his intercept and contested marking, which looks elite however rarely see him kicking the ball.

 

[Mutineer]

KM what are Leek Aleers skills like? All the highlights only really show his intercept and contested marking, which looks elite however rarely see him kicking the ball.

Kick lotto.

 

[Knightmare]

Final ESPN AFL Draft podcast of the year:

Quick early phantom yesterday afternoons podcast:
1. NM = Horne-Francis
2. WBD = Darcy
3. Coll = Daicos (will this remain the same for my final phantom?)
4. GWS = Callaghan
5. GC = Andrew

Point of discussion: Jake and Matt also loved the Hugh Greenwood

1

Hugh Greenwood

Age

33

Ht

190cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.9

4star

K

8.8

3star

HB

8.1

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

6.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

8.9

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.2

3star

T

7.6

5star

CL

4.4

5star

addition by North Melbourne. Of all the midfielders to appear for the Suns, at the peak of their powers, was Greenwood a top-6 midfielder in their club history?

@ESPNFootyPod | Linktree

Join ESPN's Matt Walsh and Jake Michaels as they discuss the AFL's hot topics.

linktr.ee

For my final phantom draft. Stay tuned.

 

[Knightmare]

KM what are Leek Aleers skills like? All the highlights only really show his intercept and contested marking, which looks elite however rarely see him kicking the ball.

His intercept marking is where he's special.

Nothing exceptional about his skills. Not damaging and can lack some consistency. He's not someone you're looking to get the ball into the hands of, as you'd say really of Aliir Aliir.

 

[Knightmare]

My 2021 AFL phantom draft. Every pick. Every bid:

1. North Melbourne - Jason Horne-Francis
Height, Weight: 185cm, 81kg
Profile: What separates Horne-Francis from the rest of the pool is his application and influence defensively, with his aggression, pressure, tackling, second and third efforts and run back in support elite even by AFL standards. He also plays a high impact per possession game, wins the ball at full speed through the midfield and causes headaches up forward aerially, when the ball hits the deck and when isolated one-on-one.

2. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (Western Bulldogs father-son) - bid matched
Height, Weight: 205cm, 93kg
Profile: In a draft lacking in the way of premier talls, Darcy is the standard of excellence with his long arms and reach, one grab contested marking, attack on the ball aerially, one-touch ground level skills and his speed and agility for someone his height. Given his rapid rate of improvement and mix of rare attributes, he is one of this draft's highest upside choices for the long term.

3. GWS -

Point of discussion: How many successive picks will I have right this year? 1 to what number?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...-full-afl-phantom-draft-every-club-every-pick

 

[Lore]

Final ESPN AFL Draft podcast of the year:

Quick early phantom yesterday afternoons podcast:
1. NM = Horne-Francis
2. WBD = Darcy
3. Coll = Daicos (will this remain the same for my final phantom)
4. GWS = Callaghan
5. GC = Andrew

Point of discussion: Jake and Matt also loved the Hugh Greenwood addition by North Melbourne. Of all the midfielders to appear for the Suns, at the peak of their powers, was Greenwood a top-6 midfielder in their club history?

@ESPNFootyPod | Linktree

Join ESPN's Matt Walsh and Jake Michaels as they discuss the AFL's hot topics.

linktr.ee

For my final phantom draft. Stay tuned.

Daicos apparently said on radio yesterday that GWS haven't interviewed him at all and have no intention of bidding on him.

I think the rest of that top 5 is pretty much a consensus.

 

[blueiris]

Not really a fan of Darcy Wilmot but basically everyone has him as a Lions player next season is the census he’s a top 20 pick and the Lions seem a right pick after drafting Sharp last year

 

[Happy Mastenator]

My 2021 AFL phantom draft. Every pick. Every bid:



Point of discussion: How many successive picks will I have right this year? 1 to what number?

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...-full-afl-phantom-draft-every-club-every-pick

Not sure West Coast will be taking a ruck and a key defender with their two second rounders. Might take a ruck, maybe, but we need midfielders, certainly not key defenders (given we have Barrass (26) and Edwards (21) backing up McGovern).

 

[Knightmare]

Not really a fan of Darcy Wilmot but basically everyone has him as a Lions player next season is the census he’s a top 20 pick and the Lions seem a right pick after drafting Sharp last year

Brisbane like their late year birthdays and need the drive off half-back. Brisbane I think would like him with that second pick, but may have to take him sooner as Sydney and Melbourne both could be a threat to take him, respectively needing some additional drive.

 

[Knightmare]

Not sure West Coast will be taking a ruck and a key defender with their two second rounders. Might take a ruck, maybe, but we need midfielders, certainly not key defenders (given we have Barrass (26) and Edwards (21) backing up McGovern).

Roberts and Erasmus is still two midfielders, and two solid midfielders.

It's possible West Coast take more, but having just three key defenders and three ruckmen is thinner than most clubs like to be, and with Nic Nat and McGovern in the latter stages of their careers, Conway and a further capable key defender I would imagine would be on the shopping list either for this offseason if it's the right player, or next.

 

[blueiris]

Brisbane like their late year birthdays and need the drive off half-back. Brisbane I think would like him with that second pick, but may have to take him sooner as Sydney and Melbourne both could be a threat to take him, respectively needing some additional drive.

Has he finished high school or will he be studying in Melbourne Sharp moved to Queensland but is Wilmot willing to do the same also he’s that more shutdown defender right like Answerth and Starcevich

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Roberts and Erasmus is still two midfielders, and two solid midfielders.

It's possible West Coast take more, but having just three key defenders and three ruckmen is thinner than most clubs like to be, and with Nic Nat and McGovern in the latter stages of their careers, Conway and a further capable key defender I would imagine would be on the shopping list either for this offseason if it's the right player, or next.

Could imagine us going for a Conway, but key defenders we seem to be able to develop at will over our history. Just think we need to use our top picks on the best midfielders available.

No one else seems to have Roberts sliding so far, what have you based this on? is it your personal ranking or what you think might actually happen?