Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Crow till I die

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CCJ does as per your observation have that combo of contested marking and that mobility and ground level capability. He just can't jump over a sheet of paper as one of the more ground-bound players you'll see.

Coleman-Jones has had his 4 years in the system and still isn't quite that best-22 piece. Maybe it's just a regular run of games required and given he is that big taller, that additional leeway is possible, but for me I think he could remain on that fringe and I continue to worry about him off-field. If there are off-field question marks, long term deals are a no-no.

It's like if Collingwood signed Jordan De Goey to a 6 year deal let's say. I'd be calling them out for that. If it's a two year deal, that's fine, but when you have someone at risk of being stood down, it's not playing the percentages and it can get you from a salary cap perspective in a lot of trouble.



Melbourne fans are welcome to be fully on the Jackson bandwagon.

I'm expecting a very strong career, 250 games and he can be one of the best ruckmen in the competition.

I can't say I'm going to make any too the moon projections on him though. I know all too well the history of ruckmen taken early draft and how they tend to stop developing sooner and tend to have their careers cut shorter. Being protected by Gawn being the no.1 greatly helps him in this respect, but still we've had others still have their time early days playing more as key forwards and still fail to keep improving later.

Nic Nat is the most successful of those early picked rucks, but the vast majority of others have really been sad stories of shortened careers and bodies falling apart too soon where by 30 they're often shot, whereas those taken later tend to have started to really come good at 24/25 and have those prime years out the back end.

I'm more than happy to be on record that at pick 1 or pick 3, I'm passing on Jackson. Both because of how cheaply good ruckmen can be acquired, and my expectation that there will be several midfielders who will have better careers. My expectation remains both Green and Serong have the better careers of those still available at 3.

Being early stages, it could well go either way, but I'm more than happy to be the contrarian if others believe Jackson will be the best from his pool.



Max will qualify as his father played 200 games for Norwood before 1991 which is the requirement.

The official rule is as follows:
"The Adelaide Football Club may include a person on its Primary List if that person’s father played 200 or more Senior Matches (being either home and away or finals series matches) at one of the following clubs prior to but not including, 1991: (A) Norwood Football Club; (B) Glenelg Football Club; (C) Sturt Football Club; or (D) South Adelaide Football Club"

That would be strange if preseason games are counted in his officially listed 211 played. I haven't heard of a competition counting preseason games as part of total games played. Maybe the SANFL did at that time? I'll leave answering that to those more familiar with how the SANFL counted games played during those times.



Jackson should be just as competitive through the ruck if not a touch better through there even, but I don't ever see him developing that forward of centre game to that McKernan level. If he does though, he'll needless to say be a problem as McKernan was.

From that booming kick, to that contested mark, to that scoreboard impact. I don't see Jackson touching any of that.

I do respect Jackson at ground level just as I do McKernan though, both are those not just athletic, but smart footballers.
Thanks KM

Just following on, we think that to get to 200 games, Jim played some escort cup games (night games) so the tally of H & A games and finals is less than 200 games - and we only go by this because Darryl Borlase played 201 games for Port Magpies in the same period of which a number were escort cup and as such his son James - who is now a crow ironically, missed out on eligibility as a father son for port.

I hope you and the herald sun writers are correct, but I get a feeling that it won't pan out that way which will be a shame as Max projects as a very good footballer and would be great to think he could be a crows Father son pick in 2022
 

mustang

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KM what do you think of Hawthorns intake of kids in 2021 starting from Bramble in the Preseason supp to Newcombe,Carlow in the mid season to Ward, MacDonald, Butler,Serong, in the main draft and Long in the rookie draft.
 

Shinboner1

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KM, North touted to bring in a KPD from SA and WA to train with the club over the offseason in hopes of getting a rookie spot.
Who'd be the best for the club that's still available from either state?
 

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Knightmare

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KM what do you think of Hawthorns intake of kids in 2021 starting from Bramble in the Preseason supp to Newcombe,Carlow in the mid season to Ward, MacDonald, Butler,Serong, in the main draft and Long in the rookie draft.

Among the strongest cohorts broadly I've seen Hawthorn bring in, and great returns across all periods, particularly from a value standpoint. Bramble has been better than expected. Newcombe I liked, and again, better than expected. Callow I felt was the best available and can be a long term piece if Hawthorn's player development remains strong. Ward I felt was best available. MacDonald and Butler are solid and have a chance to be pieces. Long as a rookie is terrific value and could surprise. Serong speculative.

Hawthorn's strength over the years has been a lot more in the player development space than the drafting space, which has led to outsized returns for the picks used. Just seeing to isolate just one area, how Hawthorn have developed poor kicks into good and in some cases excellent kicks has been something I haven't seen happen anywhere else.

If Hawthorn's strong player development continues, several long term core pieces could well have been found from the various drafting opportunities from 2021 for the Hawks.

KM, North touted to bring in a KPD from SA and WA to train with the club over the offseason in hopes of getting a rookie spot.
Who'd be the best for the club that's still available from either state?

Blake Schlensog is the clear best option.

Noah Pegoraro is another to have on that shortlist. Jack Avery, though he's too short to be a genuine key defender and is more one if looking for a 3rd tall/component.

They're all WA boys.

From the SANFL there are no key defenders I'd advocate given Sam Skinner has been picked up already. Jack Hayes is the best remaining KPP in the SANFL and could possibly switch back if need be though. He's currently training with the Saints.
 

THE A5

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KM whats your thoughts on Jack Williams? For most of the championship I thought he looked but at 195cm I thought he was a bit of tweener and too short to play as a fwd/ruck but now the Eagles have listed him as 198cm and 94kg’s. Looking at him he seems like he will be a solid lad once he fills out. His legs in particular are tree stumps and his overall physique reminds me of a young Tom Hawkins.
 

Knightmare

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KM whats your thoughts on Jack Williams? For most of the championship I thought he looked but at 195cm I thought he was a bit of tweener and too short to play as a fwd/ruck but now the Eagles have listed him as 198cm and 94kg’s. Looking at him he seems like he will be a solid lad once he fills out. His legs in particular are tree stumps and his overall physique reminds me of a young Tom Hawkins.

If Williams has grown to 198cm, that's more exciting and suggests added upside, as I had him listed at 195cm.

Tom Hawkins is the player there are those shades of. Watch him at boundary throw-ins. He is strong enough to grab it out of ruck contests and create shots on goal in the same way. He's a strong boy and a presence up forward.

Williams could be a fwd/ruck or possibly a key defender.

Be mindful, he's a project and will take time to develop. He's a big, strong boy, but he doesn't have an AFL game yet with no way to take advantage of AFL key defenders as he won't be able to outmuscle them. He'll need a number of years developing at state league level and once dominant there, he can be considered for AFL play.
 

THE A5

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If Williams has grown to 198cm, that's more exciting and suggests added upside, as I had him listed at 195cm.

Tom Hawkins is the player there are those shades of. Watch him at boundary throw-ins. He is strong enough to grab it out of ruck contests and create shots on goal in the same way. He's a strong boy and a presence up forward.

Williams could be a fwd/ruck or possibly a key defender.

Be mindful, he's a project and will take time to develop. He's a big, strong boy, but he doesn't have an AFL game yet with no way to take advantage of AFL key defenders as he won't be able to outmuscle them. He'll need a number of years developing at state league level and once dominant there, he can be considered for AFL play.
He's at the right club then cause Eagles seem to be very patient with tall talent. I've heard the term apprenticeship at WAFL level thrown around when it came to Gov, Barrass and Rotham. I suspect both him and Bazzo will be doing the same.
 

Knightmare

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He's at the right club then cause Eagles seem to be very patient with tall talent. I've heard the term apprenticeship at WAFL level thrown around when it came to Gov, Barrass and Rotham. I suspect both him and Bazzo will be doing the same.

WCE have a good history developing tall talent.

If Bazzo and Williams become long term pieces, all involved in the development of those KPPs really deserve a great deal of credit as it's not often mid and late draft KPPs become long term pieces. nd it's not like Bazzo or Williams were projected first round picks, they were drafted in appropriate draft positions.
 

Deadly Dunkley

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The Bulldogs destroyed Schache at the Lions he was playing pretty good football for a junior forward

surely you jest. Has played his best footy this year now the penny has dropped and we finally found the right role for him. He did 2 parts of bugger all up north as he was 1. clearly struggling mentally to adapt And 2. Needed the time to develop his game as many tall players do. He’s a good cog in a wheel and playing a solid but not starring role now. Shame he went so early in the draft. If he’d gone at pick 36 everyone would now be admiring how well he has come on. He’s just a later bloomer IMO. Hopefully he keeps working hard and holds his spot with Darcy and JUH looking for spots as well.
 

ArdentEagle

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surely you jest. Has played his best footy this year now the penny has dropped and we finally found the right role for him. He did 2 parts of bugger all up north as he was 1. clearly struggling mentally to adapt And 2. Needed the time to develop his game as many tall players do. He’s a good cog in a wheel and playing a solid but not starring role now. Shame he went so early in the draft. If he’d gone at pick 36 everyone would now be admiring how well he has come on. He’s just a later bloomer IMO. Hopefully he keeps working hard and holds his spot with Darcy and JUH looking for spots as well.
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Knightmare

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My plans for my AFL Draft Expert YouTube channel 2022 and beyond:

Quick summary: Starting Chris Doerre Invests (YouTube channel). Will be looking to continue growing my AFL Draft Expert YouTube into the future with the objective of growing the AFL YouTube space.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9MZif4AatA
 

Andre the Giant

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Our recruiters said, if you go best available at every pick, you end up with a midfield top heavy team, with little quality in most of the other positions, like GWS.

Problem is Knightmare, you end up with the exact type of list and problems that teams who continually struggle to climb the ladder end up with.

I’ve got no issue with your rankings, they’re your personal opinion, but for non Victorian teams, list building requires a lot more than taking best available talent every time.

If your recruiters think that of us they should probably stop drinking their own bathwater and get some reality.

We recruited Jeremy Cameron, Patton, Lobb, McCarthy, Boyd who were all highly rated with some being victims of injuries and others leaving for other reasons. It’s not the recruiters fault this happened.

I love hearing clubs acting like knowitalls after the event, you guys were such a basket case the AFL had to rescue you. I reckon just look at your own backyard and not use others as a benchmark.
 

GUMBLETRON

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We recruited Jeremy Cameron, Patton, Lobb, McCarthy, Boyd who were all highly rated with some being victims of injuries and others leaving for other reasons. It’s not the recruiters fault this happened.
The last of whom was picked, what, 8 years ago? Since then it's been midfielders with almost every early pick.
 

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Andre the Giant

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The last of whom was picked, what, 8 years ago? Since then it's been midfielders with almost every early pick.

We lost Cameron last year and had Patton and Lobb for a good period. Can’t blame the recruiters for not predicting we would lose the lot.

You guys for example still don’t have a dominant key forward (hence the Ben King rumours) despite not playing a final prior to this year since what 2004? You probably didn’t anticipate losing Danaher and quality key forwards are like hens teeth.

Silvagni buggered up some picks, some were bad luck but we have lost a heap of players. To stay a competitive side and max the draft capital I’d say they’ve done ok.

The whole thing is an unprecedented experiment with the amount of initial capital and having to manage that being picked apart and keeping high picks in a non footy state with little support or resources.
 
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briztoon

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If your recruiters think that of us they should probably stop drinking their own bathwater and get some reality.

We recruited Jeremy Cameron, Patton, Lobb, McCarthy, Boyd who were all highly rated with some being victims of injuries and others leaving for other reasons. It’s not the recruiters fault this happened.

I love hearing clubs acting like knowitalls after the event, you guys were such a basket case the AFL had to rescue you. I reckon just look at your own backyard and not use others as a benchmark.
Yep, attack the opposition instead of actually addressing the point.

Let’s talk about your recent drafts, post your foundation, top heavy drafts.

In regards to what I mentioned, that was mentioned at the beginning of the draft night function, before any picks were made.
 

Andre the Giant

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Yep, attack the opposition instead of actually addressing the point.

Let’s talk about your recent drafts, post your foundation, top heavy drafts.

In regards to what I mentioned, that was mentioned at the beginning of the draft night function, before any picks were made.

We have had high picks and taken best available Ash, Green, Bruhn, Callaghan all pretty good.

We liked Jackson but he went one pick before us, McDonald went before we had a chance, we bid on Darcy. What would you have done differently?

It’s easy to be a smartrarse after acceptances. Keys are hard to get for any team, it’s harder when they are father/son or right at the top of draft. I reckon Caruso is nearly as good as anyone in the space.
 

briztoon

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We have had high picks and taken best available Ash, Green, Bruhn, Callaghan all pretty good.

We liked Jackson but he went one pick before us, McDonald went before we had a chance, we bid on Darcy. What would you have done differently?

It’s easy to be a smartrarse after acceptances. Keys are hard to get for any team, it’s harder when they are father/son or right at the top of draft. I reckon Caruso is nearly as good as anyone in the space.
No one is being a smart arse.

No one has focused on KPP’s either.

I repeated exactly what one of our recruiters said.

When I have time, I’ll explain further the comment in full context.
 

Knightmare

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There is the possibility with picks that the picks can be sound, but the club - from the environment, to the coaching, to the player development, to the leadership within the playing group are lacking. And conversely, a club could be ordinary picking talent, but have everything else so right, that the players they pick can far exceed their draft position and talent projections.

In the case of the Giants, I consider them over the years to be one of the relatively worse pickers pickers through the draft on average and at the same time I do have questions around those other elements. Do they have the right coach? Coaching staff? Veteran leaders? Development coaches? Culture? A number of those elements need to improve for the Giants to improve, and some of those elements may be positive, but not enough are as we're not seeing success from the Giants.

My view on the Giants has been on paper really by default because of the sheer quantity of concessions and early picks the talent, then supplemented more recently by all the really good Academy talent coming in has on paper for a good period there been the best and most appealing in the competition, but internally there is given we have yet to see a premiership and don't expect to see a premiership with this group, there is a lot that went wrong, as the concessions had a lot of us predicting, myself included for the Giants to build a dynasty and win many premierships with their original group.

From a list management perspective, where I can give the Giants relative credit is towards their opposition talent ID. Adding good veteran talent from other teams and when they could to support the youth, adding good established players from other teams. The likes of Mumford and Shaw when they were added were really it felt like at the time the catalysts towards making the Giants a competitive side and developing the youth.
 

northeasttiger

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Hi Knightmare I have noticed a trend in Richmonds drafting in the last couple of seasons and this combined with some of the recruiters comments leads me to suspect that we are looking to draft like for like players whenever possible.

Dow for Edwards
Gibcus for Rance
Clarke for Lambert
Sonsie for Cotchin
Brown for Houli

We obviously are committed to our game plan and seem to be rebuilding our team with players who are equal to or better than the players they will eventually replace.

I know you didn't rate some of our selections very much, if the media pundits are all claiming we need to rebuild our midfield then when we pick a KPB with our first pick and a general defender with our second pick then it is understandable that the general consensus is we drafted poorly.

Maybe our recruiting dept. is backing RCD and Ross to fill any midfield void that injuries may make this season.
 

Knightmare

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Hi Knightmare I have noticed a trend in Richmonds drafting in the last couple of seasons and this combined with some of the recruiters comments leads me to suspect that we are looking to draft like for like players whenever possible.

Dow for Edwards
Gibcus for Rance
Clarke for Lambert
Sonsie for Cotchin
Brown for Houli

We obviously are committed to our game plan and seem to be rebuilding our team with players who are equal to or better than the players they will eventually replace.

I know you didn't rate some of our selections very much, if the media pundits are all claiming we need to rebuild our midfield then when we pick a KPB with our first pick and a general defender with our second pick then it is understandable that the general consensus is we drafted poorly.

Maybe our recruiting dept. is backing RCD and Ross to fill any midfield void that injuries may make this season.

I share your view that Richmond are drafting for need and looking at the players they're drafting with a succession plan perspective.

Some of those will hopefully develop though the value propositions for me at least don't excite me or make me think they'll be particularly good successors.

Richmond remain thin through the midfield. Hopefully RCD and Ross develop. I was hoping last year that both would do more than they did, so whether they're going to be the long term pieces you need either, I'm not entirely sure.

I'm a huge Balta fan as I was when he was drafted, but there aren't any younger pieces I'm necessarily seeing as having a high probability of becoming stars, so I do worry for Richmond in the longer term where that improvement will come from that can see Richmond once the current core of veterans retire, to continue winning games. I'd in Richmond's situation be looking at opposition talent ID and the state leagues over coming seasons so that there isn't at some point a dramatic drop off.
 

Shinboner1

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I share your view that Richmond are drafting for need and looking at the players they're drafting with a succession plan perspective.

Some of those will hopefully develop though the value propositions for me at least don't excite me or make me think they'll be particularly good successors.

Richmond remain thin through the midfield. Hopefully RCD and Ross develop. I was hoping last year that both would do more than they did, so whether they're going to be the long term pieces you need either, I'm not entirely sure.

I'm a huge Balta fan as I was when he was drafted, but there aren't any younger pieces I'm necessarily seeing as having a high probability of becoming stars, so I do worry for Richmond in the longer term where that improvement will come from that can see Richmond once the current core of veterans retire, to continue winning games. I'd in Richmond's situation be looking at opposition talent ID and the state leagues over coming seasons so that there isn't at some point a dramatic drop off.
Maybe they don't think that midfield is a huge need or hope to poach some midfield free agents to the side in the coming years?
It seems harder to develop talls in the key positions on field so its worth grabbing the good players when you can (backline harder than forward I reckon).
 

briztoon

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We have had high picks and taken best available Ash, Green, Bruhn, Callaghan all pretty good.

We liked Jackson but he went one pick before us, McDonald went before we had a chance, we bid on Darcy. What would you have done differently?

It’s easy to be a smartrarse after acceptances. Keys are hard to get for any team, it’s harder when they are father/son or right at the top of draft. I reckon Caruso is nearly as good as anyone in the space.
I said I’d reply more in depth when I could. So here goes.

I attended the Lions draft function this year, and the recruiter running the night gave a talk about our recruiting strategy for this year’s draft. Before the draft started.

Now I don’t remember if he was giving an answer to another attendees question, or just explaining the clubs thought process for this draft.

Basically what he said was that the Lions coaches had identified a couple of needs, by position and specific attributes that we were targeting. And he mentioned the two players we wanted for each position.

Remember this is before the draft started.

So we went in to the night wanting Wilmot and Lohman at our first two picks.

He went on to explain that if teams drafted purely on best available talent, then most teams would end up with heavily skewed lists, with lots of high quality mids. More than a team can play in their best 22.

And he specifically mentioned GWS as an example of this.

The recruiter went on to explain that most clubs don’t draft best available talent, outside of the very elite tier of any draft.

As the draft unfolded, and it looked like Hobbs and Gibcus were sliding, the recruiter made it clear that even though we rated Hobbs very highly on talent, that we’d still pick Wilmot ahead of him. He wasn’t so sure on whether we would go Gibcus or Wilmot if both were available at our first pick.


Now, I’m not here to defend what my club recruiter said. I do agree with him, as I mentioned in discussions in other threads on the draft board who I believed GWS and other clubs should target at their early picks.

I’ve been critical of our recruiting and list management moves on our own board enough. I believe we’re rather poor at trading picks for future picks, and poor at where we position new picks when we make trades. Nor have I always agreed with certain kids we’ve drafted, or the order in which we draft for certain positions.

And I get frustrated at our inability to make draft moves to go after specific players in the various drafts.

I do believe Port and Melbourne are two teams who a pretty good at trading picks to move up to draft specific players, or positioning picks well to draft certain players.
 

Andre the Giant

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I said I’d reply more in depth when I could. So here goes.

I attended the Lions draft function this year, and the recruiter running the night gave a talk about our recruiting strategy for this year’s draft. Before the draft started.

Now I don’t remember if he was giving an answer to another attendees question, or just explaining the clubs thought process for this draft.

Basically what he said was that the Lions coaches had identified a couple of needs, by position and specific attributes that we were targeting. And he mentioned the two players we wanted for each position.

Remember this is before the draft started.

So we went in to the night wanting Wilmot and Lohman at our first two picks.

He went on to explain that if teams drafted purely on best available talent, then most teams would end up with heavily skewed lists, with lots of high quality mids. More than a team can play in their best 22.

And he specifically mentioned GWS as an example of this.

The recruiter went on to explain that most clubs don’t draft best available talent, outside of the very elite tier of any draft.

As the draft unfolded, and it looked like Hobbs and Gibcus were sliding, the recruiter made it clear that even though we rated Hobbs very highly on talent, that we’d still pick Wilmot ahead of him. He wasn’t so sure on whether we would go Gibcus or Wilmot if both were available at our first pick.


Now, I’m not here to defend what my club recruiter said. I do agree with him, as I mentioned in discussions in other threads on the draft board who I believed GWS and other clubs should target at their early picks.

I’ve been critical of our recruiting and list management moves on our own board enough. I believe we’re rather poor at trading picks for future picks, and poor at where we position new picks when we make trades. Nor have I always agreed with certain kids we’ve drafted, or the order in which we draft for certain positions.

And I get frustrated at our inability to make draft moves to go after specific players in the various drafts.

I do believe Port and Melbourne are two teams who a pretty good at trading picks to move up to draft specific players, or positioning picks well to draft certain players.

Great context to your earlier comment and understood 👍

I will say GWS rated Gibcus very highly but we were unable to tempt Fremantle or Richmond to trade back to our Pick 15.

From what I’ve been told our Board had Darcy as top player for need/talent and Callaghan was actually number 2 so we were not leaving without him. That would be a big call given the immense known ability of Horne-Francis and Daicos. Callaghan’s height is the key point of difference.

Apparently Gold Coast, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Richmond and Freo all made enquiries to trade up to our selection specifically to get him. He looks quite untapped but the sample is limited so hopefully what has been seen is enough.
 

Shinboner1

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More established clubs like bris, dogs, rich, melb etc draft for talent needs.
Building clubs like North draft best available attributes and mould them to the positions on field, especially with most North forwards taking some time in the mids etc.
How many good HBF for example played pure midfield to build their endurance and speed as a junior.
Obviously when you've got less holes to fill you can go into the draft pretty confidently that you'll get what type you're looking for.
 

Knightmare

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Maybe they don't think that midfield is a huge need or hope to poach some midfield free agents to the side in the coming years?
It seems harder to develop talls in the key positions on field so its worth grabbing the good players when you can (backline harder than forward I reckon).

Midfield is beyond doubt a substantial need for Richmond. Their midfield is awful, and even when they were winning premierships their midfield wasn't their strength.

With talls, there is greater scarcity of good ones and they are certainly harder to develop.

If we look at success correlations for each part of the draft. The early part of the draft has historically been where the best midfielders have come, and the hit rate is at the same time higher than in other positions.

With the four best teams last year having the four best midfields, that's where games are in large part won and lost with midfielders having the greatest involvement in winning, being involved in the greatest number of plays over the course of a game.

Key position players, and in particular key forwards, the good ones come early draft. It's just about picking the right ones and having a high level of conviction around how their game will translate based on your own talent evaluation. Load up on great ones with durability so that you don't have to waste too many list positions on them.

On key defenders v key forwards. Good key defenders don't have to be taken early. Most of the great ones weren't early picks. You can get them as rookies, mid-late draft, mature agers, you can have failed key forwards switching back and often you can trade for really good ones. It's all about looking at those who intercept to a high level. Search for those, and it's pretty easy to notice Aliir Aliir last offseason.

One opinion, and it won't be a commonly held one I can't imagine, but my view is the best key defender today have a larger impact on winning today, and they really have over the past 10 years now because we're seeing a far increasing volume of intercept possessions, intercept marks and contested marks. The great key defenders today are becoming among the most influential players on the field because fundamentally, they're winning the ball back from the opposition and allowing their own team then to have the chance to score off of the turnover.
 
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