Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Sep 22, 2010
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I literally said fair play to him for fleecing cash out of ESPN when he clearly has never played footy. I actually think that's pretty impressive. However, even you must admit that it's pretty ******* cooked that he's literally admitted to thinking that he knows better than AFL recruiters. like there's ******* narcissism and then there's that.

As I said though, If he's played at anything above a junior level, I'll delete these posts.

As a point of curiosity, do you believe all National Recruiting Managers have played football?
 

Hazardinho

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That hasn't happened yet where an AFL recruiter has claimed JHF to be Dangerfield, so it's a hypothetical and not reality. That's like saying a guy approaches you and says " i'm gonna steal your girl" and you tell them i'll beat you up if you try but the guy gets charged assault for something he hasn't done yet as the guy doesn't approach your gyal. Seriously though, you're so outraged and cynical on this guy for saying JHF will not be the next Dangerfield, flip sake that's such a first world problem we have and getting angry over that just proves you're joyless reactionary.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Don't avoid the question. Have you ever played footy?

Could Melbourne be there without the years Roos contributed? Can you say for sure they wouldn't be where Carlton are today? If so, on what grounds?

Do you believe all National Recruiting Managers have played football?

They're points of discussion with scope to add to the discussion and directly applicable to the argument you are attempting to make.

As I said, I'm more than happy to complete an in depth video detailing my pathway to where I am today if there is the genuine interest from a number of my readers. That would be inclusive of exactly how much football I have played and against what levels of competition if that's a point of interest.

Given the lack of courtesy provided though, I can't imagine today will be the day I provide any spoilers.
 
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Don't avoid the question. Have you ever played footy?

This is absolute dogshit commentary and contributes to the ever lower standard of these threads. Go after the ball, not the man. If you think having played the game to a > reasonable level is mandatory for assessing talent then I think you’re coming at this from the wrong angle.

I’m sure there are elements first hand playing experience would help with, but it’s secondary to having the right level of understanding/intelligence/analytical ability.

In 15 years most of this stuff will be driven by supernerds analysing data anyway. It’s already moving in that direction, AFL slower than other sports. Recruiting will be more about maths and IT ability than playing history


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Nov 15, 2020
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Any mention of JHF should get you permabanned from the board at this point. Jesus Christ, what a mess.
Why?

This is the perfect time to discuss JHF in this thread. He just played the game of his life in a seniors prelim and proved he is an offensive force. Given knightmare's take on JhF and his offensive capabilities, it's obviously topical and I am looking forward to knightmare's thoughts
 

Dundalis

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And that's all well and good. And your opinions on these players are your opinions (that's the point). However, you are consistently disparaging, bordering condescending, to those who rate JHF. You literally said their talent ID i.e., comparisons to Danger and Buckley were "almost disrespectful"... So again, you haven't resolved why it's ok for you to create these comparisons between draft prospects and future greats but shoot down others when they do the same?

I have literally no investment in JHF and don't care how he turns out as a player, but it is frustrating to consistently see you position your opinions beyond reproach while borderline ridiculing others. It's all well and good to say "develop your own opinions" but it's a bit rich to then turn around and say "but they are wrong because I see or say xyz" when you have been wrong (as is everybody incl. Recruiters) many many times, as you willingly shared in your previous post.

I have no problem with your opinion or analysis of JHF and you very well may turn out correct. Your level of hubris and self-indulgence I could do without.
Honestly, Knightmare's comments are WAY more tolerant of criticism than I or probably most others would respond with given similar circumstance. He actually displays pretty admirable self restraint, trying to simply give his analytical breakdown, divorcing a lot of emotional rhetoric you typically see from most people responding to him. Given it's clearly an area of expertise or he wouldn't be in the position he's in. Everyone with any self respect is protective of their fields of acquired expertise with a strong backbone to stand behind their opinions and I wouldn't expect anything different. Given how restrained he is (which I sure as hell wouldn't be), you and some others seem a little overly sensitive that he isn't backing down to your differing opinions on players. Like, if you think he's full of hubris and self indulgence, you must not get out much.
 
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Honestly, Knightmare's comments are WAY more tolerant of criticism than I or probably most others would respond with given similar circumstance. He actually displays pretty admirable self restraint, given it's clearly an area of expertise or he wouldn't be in the position he's in. Everyone with any self respect is protective of their fields of acquired expertise with a strong backbone to stand behind their opinions and I wouldn't expect anything different. Given how restrained he is (which I sure as hell wouldn't be), you and some others seem a little overly sensitive that he isn't backing down to your differing opinions on players. Like, if you think he's full of hubris and self indulgence, you must not get out much.
And I commend knightmare for that. He cops a barrage for some of his takes..some of it crosses the line and at other times it is rigorous debate. I personally have not crossed that line but have shared some of my criticisms of his tone. He has no problem with it so I am not sure why you do.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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This is absolute dogshit commentary and contributes to the ever lower standard of these threads. Go after the ball, not the man. If you think having played the game to a > reasonable level is mandatory for assessing talent then I think you’re coming at this from the wrong angle.

I’m sure there are elements first hand playing experience would help with, but it’s secondary to having the right level of understanding/intelligence/analytical ability.

In 15 years most of this stuff will be driven by supernerds analysing data anyway. It’s already moving in that direction, AFL slower than other sports. Recruiting will be more about maths and IT ability than playing history


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AFL clubs have been slow in their adoption of analytics and data experts, and it's to their detriment. There is too much of the old guard and doing things the old way rather than aggressively seeking solutions and opportunities to grow and improve continually. If we look at its adoption in other sports globally, they've managed decisive advantages over those who haven't.

Dom Milesi, the National Recruiting Manager of the Dogs while we're on the topic of Grand Finalists and those involved, for those who are unaware, actually comes from an economics background and wasn't a footballer. Does that make him unqualified to make recruiting decisions? I'd suggest without ever exchanging notes with him on his methodology as to how he goes about picking players or developing his own draft board, that his background makes him all the more qualified because he would I imagine have a better grasp of what the data means and how that can guide what his eyes are telling him to help make sound decisions.

When you have a recruiting team, it's a collaborative effort. You want people from different backgrounds with different skills and with different core competencies. Or at least if I'm forming a team, that would be my focus. I'd have no problem if forming such a team to have former footballers, but I'd be making sure I have my numbers guys as part of the team. I'd go as far as to suggest that's a non-negotiable.
 
I might have to save my review of Horne-Francis' game for my weekly wrap on ESPN. Maintain the suspense.

I'll give JHF what I feel will be appropriate kudos. Will be interesting to see if the JHF fan club will agree.

I was watching. I'll be providing my thoughts on how Horne-Francis has gone as always in a good amount of depth.

I would imagine any reasonable analyst would agree with the observations I'll share, with some of the hyperbole being shared on this thread, perhaps not.

But I'll reserve responses on JHF's game for until my weekly wrap has been released on ESPN so as to keep the discussion here going smoothly so that we don't have more pages getting bogged down in more of the same on JHF.
I can write it for you in a few lines but no doubt you want to take three pages.

Good defensively.

Not as good as Daicos.

Doesn't have an offensive game.

Will be a solid player but don't dare compare him to the golden god Nafan.

Not as good as Daicos.

He's Hugh Greenwood.

giphy.gif
 

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Why?

This is the perfect time to discuss JHF in this thread. He just played the game of his life in a seniors prelim and proved he is an offensive force. Given knightmare's take on JhF and his offensive capabilities, it's obviously topical and I am looking forward to knightmare's thoughts
It has been done over and over again and has become bloody boring, how about giving some other kids a fair go.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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I can write it for you in a few lines but no doubt you want to take three pages.

Good defensively.

Not as good as Daicos.

Doesn't have an offensive game.

Will be a solid player but don't dare compare him to the golden god Nafan.

Not as good as Daicos.

He's Hugh Greenwood.

giphy.gif

It's curious the extent to which people believe I'm down on Horne-Francis.

I actually consider myself a fan an appreciator of his game, as I'd say of Daicos and as I'd say of Darcy, and I could go on.

There is in my mind at least no meaningful separation between Horne-Francis and Daicos. It's just down to preference who people have #1. For those who watched my power rankings/tier list video on YouTube last week, I classed Daicos and Horne-Francis as part of the top tier. I've been consistent in saying for a while now, they can both be top-20 midfielders in the competition.
 

Dundalis

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And I commend knightmare for that. He cops a barrage for some of his takes..some of it crosses the line and at other times it is rigorous debate. I personally have not crossed that line but have shared some of my criticisms of his tone. He has no problem with it so I am not sure why you do.
One of the mods said it best. Many a great contributor have been scared off the board due to the incessant critical environment that comes with becoming respected as someone highly knowledgeable in a specific area like junior scouting. I don't post that much, but I've been around this board a long arse time, so I've seen it happen even with posters that display an overtly high level of tolerance. If you are gonna be one that jumps on the critic bandwagon in a situation like that, don't get all sensitive when the guy in the spotlight copping it serves it back. You're assessing tone on a message board when you are having a disagreement. Unless you're experience arguing on the internet is 5 minutes long, it's such an overly touchy thing to complain about. Knightmare has been nothing more than bluntly matter of fact, and you seem to display exactly the same style in your opinions on prospects so I dunno what you would have an issue with. Which is perfectly fine. But criticisms can snowball, and if they are touchy feely, rather than analytical, well to me the latter is fine, the former is irritating, especially if it leads to something that drifts into emotional backlash rather than straight analysis of prospects. That s**t happens very very easily on this board.
 

foodles05

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It's curious the extent to which people believe I'm down on Horne-Francis.

I actually consider myself a fan an appreciator of his game, as I'd say of Daicos and as I'd say of Darcy, and I could go on.

There is in my mind at least no meaningful separation between Horne-Francis and Daicos. It's just down to preference who people have #1. For those who watched my power rankings/tier list video on YouTube last week, I classed Daicos and Horne-Francis as part of the top tier. I've been consistent in saying for a while now, they can both be top-20 midfielders in the competition.

Maybe it's that he is obviously delivering things you have suggested he isn't strong in under the most intense pressure and in the biggest games he has ever played in. He absolutely dominated a pre-lim final in clearly the second best comp in the land as a kid who just turned 18. It's truly rarified air. So maybe people are expecting you will address your criticisms of his game based on the things he is doing in massive games to show you may be mistaken. However each to their own and maybe you still see the lack of quality in the areas you have questioned. I think it's that most people disagree with those assessments especially now. No one unless they are being stupid are suggesting you don't rate him. However that's a stupid point to make because of course he is rated. He is objectively a junior star. It's more the question marks you have, that seem harder and harder to justify in some people's eyes.
 

foodles05

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It's curious the extent to which people believe I'm down on Horne-Francis.

I actually consider myself a fan an appreciator of his game, as I'd say of Daicos and as I'd say of Darcy, and I could go on.

There is in my mind at least no meaningful separation between Horne-Francis and Daicos. It's just down to preference who people have #1. For those who watched my power rankings/tier list video on YouTube last week, I classed Daicos and Horne-Francis as part of the top tier. I've been consistent in saying for a while now, they can both be top-20 midfielders in the competition.

Does that mean if he becomes a top 15 mid in the game you have underrated him?
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Maybe it's that he is obviously delivering things you have suggested he isn't strong in under the most intense pressure and in the biggest games he has ever played in. He absolutely dominated a pre-lim final in clearly the second best comp in the land as a kid who just turned 18. It's truly rarified air. So maybe people are expecting you will address your criticisms of his game based on the things he is doing in massive games to show you may be mistaken. However each to their own and maybe you still see the lack of quality in the areas you have questioned. I think it's that most people disagree with those assessments especially now. No one unless they are being stupid are suggesting you don't rate him. However that's a stupid point to make because of course he is rated. He is objectively a junior star. It's more the question marks you have, that seem harder and harder to justify in some people's eyes.

There isn't a lot I imagine I'll have to update as I already view my perception around Horne-Francis' game as being exceedingly high. There isn't too much higher than future top-20 midfielder in the competition to go. Particularly when compared to historical choices going as early and looking at how their careers have turned out. And he's still not Dangerfield or Buckley or projecting to have that level of great career. Those who believe he will be the best in the competition can, but they're bolder than me if they're making that call.

In the offensive and ball winning categories where I've been saying before tonight's game Horne is very good and detailing to the precise extent to which I believe he's good, he's to his credit continuing to lift his standard of play and making them into even stronger areas of competency.

As per my earlier comment though, I'll be addressing Horne-Francis' game in my weekly wrap this week. My comments are needless to say going to be very positive, as it's the best he has played.

Will my comments please the comments section in this thread? I guess that's a wait and see.

Does that mean if he becomes a top 15 mid in the game you have underrated him?

It could well be a Sam Walsh-like situation where I suggest Walsh isn't the best or even the best midfielder in the draft (I thought Bailey Smith was the best mid in that draft), yet I fully believe and publicly suggest in the leadup to the draft Walsh can be as good as Josh Kelly.

Sometimes guys overshoot your estimations and sometimes they undershoot. All you can do is learn from each instance to better your powers of prediction for the next go round.
 

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Im surprised Horne hasnt been compared to Jason Akermanis. Probably polar opposites as people and team attitudes but athletically seems very similar to me. Wouldnt say Aker was the greatest contested ball player but give him an inch of space and he was magic. To me the only big difference is that Horne seems to want to apply pressure and tackle in any circumstance, where as Aker only wanted to do it when it would result in him being the hero of the day.

Perhaps my infant brain remembers him wrong, but as my favourite non Carlton player I see a lot of similarities in their athletic make up and ability to create something out of nothing. Would say Aker was a better kick, he was a genuine circus act on his left or right. Both can kick with penetration at absolute top speed which is rare.

Maybe people have just avoided any comparison to Aker after how his career ended but to me he looks a modern day Akermanis (where doing the team thing is valued above anything else)
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Im surprised Horne hasnt been compared to Jason Akermanis. Probably polar opposites as people and team attitudes but athletically seems very similar to me. Wouldnt say Aker was the greatest contested ball player but give him an inch of space and he was magic. To me the only big difference is that Horne seems to want to apply pressure and tackle in any circumstance, where as Aker only wanted to do it when it would result in him being the hero of the day.

Perhaps my infant brain remembers him wrong, but as my favourite non Carlton player I see a lot of similarities in their athletic make up and ability to create something out of nothing. Would say Aker was a better kick, he was a genuine circus act on his left or right. Both can kick with penetration at absolute top speed which is rare.

Maybe people have just avoided any comparison to Aker after how his career ended but to me he looks a modern day Akermanis (where doing the team thing is valued above anything else)

Aker is the shorter and less contested footballer in the comparison, but an unbelievable footballer and an absolute magician with ball in hand be it around the ground or around goal on a level beyond Horne.

What I will say is they're definitely both big game, big moment players who on the big stage deliver and plainly put 'bring it'. He combines talent with a rare level of will and effort.

Horne-Francis, and I'll be saying as much in my weekly wrap, but unbelievable in that final quarter in particular, he did everything humanly possible. For those who watch South Adelaide, he has been their best midfielder over the past couple of months. And easily. And that's the best individual performance from any prospect in the junior ranks. Again, easily. That could have been a 4 goal final quarter if not for his two shots in a minute that hit the post, and had O'Neil not missed that gimme, a goal assist to go with it.
 

foodles05

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There isn't a lot I imagine I'll have to update as I already view my perception around Horne-Francis' game as being exceedingly high. There isn't too much higher than future top-20 midfielder in the competition to go. Particularly when compared to historical choices going as early and looking at how their careers have turned out. And he's still not Dangerfield or Buckley or projecting to have that level of great career. Those who believe he will be the best in the competition can, but they're bolder than me if they're making that call.

In the offensive and ball winning categories where I've been saying before tonight's game Horne is very good and detailing to the precise extent to which I believe he's good, he's to his credit continuing to lift his standard of play and making them into even stronger areas of competency.

As per my earlier comment though, I'll be addressing Horne-Francis' game in my weekly wrap this week. My comments are needless to say going to be very positive, as it's the best he has played.

Will my comments please the comments section in this thread? I guess that's a wait and see.



It could well be a Sam Walsh-like situation where I suggest Walsh isn't the best or even the best midfielder in the draft (I thought Bailey Smith was the best mid in that draft), yet I fully believe and publicly suggest in the leadup to the draft Walsh can be as good as Josh Kelly.

Sometimes guys overshoot your estimations and sometimes they undershoot. All you can do is learn from each instance to better your powers of prediction for the next go round.

100 percent and I did do you a disservice because as you mentioned you will be writing your views in your weekly wrap. So in that sense I didn't even give you the chance to re-evaluate a few things and take a slightly different position. Also I agree wholeheartedly that the misses allow you to become better at what you do.

Anyway as I have said before unquestionably you know more through the amount of research you do than me, so I almost always defer to you greater knowledge base. However when it comes to Horne I have probably seen him play live 20 times over the last 3 years and feel confident you are slightly underrating him and some important aspects of his game.

As you said though time will tell and much more than you I have been very wrong before. For example I think Rankine is without question the most talented junior player I have seen but that ain't looking good at the moment hahahah.

Keep up the good work legend and agree or disagree I love reading your assessments and really appreciate them.
 
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We've been pretty lenient here, and all over the draft board for that matter with feedback and criticism for Draft Watchers given that it is a topic that generally is up for personal interpretation and discussion, even heated discussion, is generally positive. What happened in here last night was about 3 steps too far, when it gets personal and isn't even about a draft prospect or the draft in general, take a step back and assess whether you're too attached or fired up to be having those discussions, especially when it's your first time posting on the board this year and it's clear what your intentions are. If you don't agree and you don't think KM or someone else is seeing what you're seeing, there's a point where you bow out and don't bother.
 
It's curious the extent to which people believe I'm down on Horne-Francis.

I actually consider myself a fan an appreciator of his game, as I'd say of Daicos and as I'd say of Darcy, and I could go on.

There is in my mind at least no meaningful separation between Horne-Francis and Daicos. It's just down to preference who people have #1. For those who watched my power rankings/tier list video on YouTube last week, I classed Daicos and Horne-Francis as part of the top tier. I've been consistent in saying for a while now, they can both be top-20 midfielders in the competition.

I was generally interested in your take on JHF after his game last night and as you were delaying I just thought I'd have a bit of light hearted fun. Definitely no offence meant.
 

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Why?

This is the perfect time to discuss JHF in this thread. He just played the game of his life in a seniors prelim and proved he is an offensive force. Given knightmare's take on JhF and his offensive capabilities, it's obviously topical and I am looking forward to knightmare's thoughts
This, but everyone should be playing the ball not the man. This is a discussion board and everyone has the right to an opinion.
I look forward to KMs next write up on JHF, especially his offensive traits.
Go Roos
 

dee64

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Vince and Cross I felt were sensible additions in that first offseason as Roos was coming in to take over as coach. Salem was drafted. Hunt and Harmes were both drafted that same offseason. How does their development compare to those drafted in the years drafted before them?

Petracca and Brayshaw were drafted that next offseason. Neal-Bullen also came in. Garlett was secured for a late pick and was a successful list addition. He had some good years and was a piece.

The next offseason, Oliver was added.

That's a good deal of Melbourne's most important ingredients even if you don't agree with the leadership and culture development narrative.

Before Roos, Melbourne would take early picks and end up with Watts/Scully/Trengove/Toumpas and have those career outcomes and lack of development. Until Roos, there wasn't an environment where those kinds of talents could develop. Roos was an essential part of that process to developing the leaders in Jones/Viney/Gawn to enable those guys drafted while Roos was there to then develop meaningfully under Roos and into stars in more recent seasons.

Roos obviously isn't responsible for Melbourne's jump this year specific. He's no longer at the club. And all the staff you mention were huge. In my video which is what's being references, I mention the coaching staff inclusive of assistant coaches as having been one of those most influential components to Melbourne's rise.
Scully left for money, and Trengove's career was ruined through injury. Both players careers were tracking fine till then. Watts and Toumpas (2nd year player) were still in the infancy of their careers when Roos arrived. Any lack of development is on Roos. And how was Jeremy Howe's development under Roos? A future AA was traded for Ben Kennedy, lol.

Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver were top 4 draft picks gifted because of our lack of success. You can't give credit to a coach for that. And as others have mentioned, Roos essentially traded away Josh Kelly.

So let's go through the players acquired from other clubs via trades during the Roos and Goodwin tenures:

Roos

IN: Dom Tyson, Jeff Garlett, Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba, Tom Bugg, Jake Melksham, Sam Frost, Viv Michie, Ben Newton, Ben Kennedy, Aidan Riley

Goodwin

IN: Jordon Lewis, Michael Hibberd, Pat McKenna, Jake Lever, Harley Balic, Steven May, Kade Jolodjashnij, Brayden Preuss, Ben Brown

Roos: The list is horrific. Jake Melksham is the only player that remains on our list, but not in our best 22, and the club is looking to offload him. Bernie Vince was the only real success, and Goodwin was responsible for his acquisition. Traded out a future AA in Howe. None of the players had any trade value when they left.

Goodwin: Hibberd, Lever and May All Australians. Brown best 22. Lewis provided leadership for our 2018 finals run. Preuss traded out for pick 31, which was part of Ben Brown's trade in.

And you are trying to tell us that Paul Roos is the main reason for our success.
 
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