Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[gungho]

Actually Knightmare I take some of my criticism back of your selections of WA kids. You seem to around the mark for most but way off for others. There is not a single example of you rating a WA kid far higher than what other experts do, but there are 2 examples of you rating them far lower. (Twomey has Amiss at 11, you have him at 23, Twomey has Jack Williams at 24, you have him at 42).

 

[deano28]

Now the problem is you're directly comparing an 18 year old Horne-Francis with peak level Dangerfield. There's no point even continuing this discussion if that's the playing ground. If JHF is being held to that standard, then I can't even imagine how poorly the likes of Daicos, Callaghan and anyone else would fare.

Don’t bother mate , he’s so deep in his own head he refuses to see others good points / opinions.

 

[Knightmare]

Not into arguing the semantics so will just keep it concise.

This is where you have the WA kids:
Erasmus: 12
Johnson 18
Amiss 23
Van Rooyan 24
Motlop 26
Hough 29
Dittmar 36.

Almost every draft expert I have read has predicted these guys will get picked up earlier. (with the exception of perhaps Motlop) Heck, Twomey even lists Amiss at 10.

They're not the only WA boys on my board. Avery at 7. Schlensog at 22. Rogers at 34. Browne at 38. Williams at 42. Bazzo at 43. Thorne at 44. Sheldrick at 50. That's a high concentration of WA prospects. And I'd imagine with those mature agers I'd have a much greater appreciation for their games than others will.

I haven't seen other media draft boards to know which of these names they also list or how high they have them, but I would expect I'd have Erasmus and Amiss lower than many others will, with those others you name roughly in the same territory.

In the case Erasmus I worry for because by foot he's a liability, and with Amiss in the small sample of games I've seen, he hasn't shown me more than just taking it on the lead and slotting his set shots.

Josh Ward is clearly a better midfield prospect than Daicos. Daicos doesn't win contested ball and is too light at the next level to do damage at stoppages. He will accumulate outside footy and be an effective link player, at best like Gaff at worst like Andrew Carrazzo. Ward can win his own footy and will put his head over the ball. He runs much harder defensively and will crack in when it's his turn. His skills are just as effective. Putting Daicos ahead of Ward is severely over-rating how Daicos' transitions into an AFL mid without an effective defensive game. Ward is far superior in "my rankings" and will be the better pro no doubt.

I'm a huge Ward fan also. After Horne-Francis and Callaghan have gone, of the non father-son guys, Ward is my next pick, and I still give thought to whether Ward is the pick ahead of Callaghan. He's certainly the safer pick with the much higher floor.

I'm not sure why you're talking about Daicos like he's too small and inept at stoppages. He's is no sense a liability or a negative at stoppages. v Geelong's VFL side, Daicos was the only midfielder with double figure contested possessions. He has been consistent with his ball winning and he gets his 10+ every game, and only had the one with less. He's a solid contested ball winner but as with a Pendlebury, it's his work in traffic that is his special sauce and ideally he's best suited playing alongside a premier first possession winner. Daicos can play outside, but for me he's definitely someone I like best inside.

Who is the better contested ball winner of Ward/Daicos? I happen to agree with you from a contested perspective Ward is the stronger ball winner. While 2cm smaller than Daicos, he's 2kg heavier and the stronger over the ball relatively. Defensively again I agree with you Ward works harder and that's been all year my contention with Daicos that that's what he needs to put a good deal of time into if he wants to be an elite midfielder. To Daicos' credit in his later games he showed substantial growth with his tackling - anticipating opposition handballs in traffic and getting to the receiver so quicker that as soon as they've receive, Daicos is all over them and tackling them. He's unbelievable when it comes to reading the play and seeing the game unfold before it does.

I would even add onto what you're saying that Ward is the better ball user and more explosive straight-line runner.

Where does Daicos have the edge? Volume of goalkicking and forward craft. His versatility more broadly. Composure and evasion in traffic, how easily he draws free kicks, how he sees the game unfold before it happens and uses that to anticipate and make better decisions. He draws the ball to a greater degree and has such an easy time finding the footy around the field as one of those who at will draws the football.

I'll stick with Daicos over Ward and respect your call for picking Ward ahead of Daicos. And I'll back Daicos to be the better player by comparison to Gaff and Carrazzo respectively, as much as I respect both of them, I do see their games as contrasting, with Daicos for me something more like a smaller Pendlebury or Macrae stylistically, or at his height, more like a Zac Merrett in physical profile.

You'd be in the minority for having the view that Ward is better than Daicos, but I applaud you for having your say, explaining your position and projecting what you believe will be their career outcomes.

I am hoping what North pick him up with pick 1 without biding on Daicos, I don’t see the advantage to the Roos outside of making life more difficult for Collingwood.

I encourage North Melbourne take whoever they believe is the best first. If that's JHF, go take your guy.

 

[Hazardinho]

Not sure why posters are getting offended with KMs rating of players.

Like every AFL recruiter he gets some right and some wrong.

As a Roo I hope he is under rating JHF.

As a Roo I hope we take him - after last year i won’t be confident until his name is read out.

I can't help but feel sometimes North might read out Callaghan' name over JHF based on taking Phillips over Logan.

 

[Wild Bill]

I can't help but feel sometimes North might read out Callaghan' name over JHF based on taking Phillips over Logan.

Same!! I can’t send anymore emails to the club “Horne - no matter what”

 

[Wild Bill]

I can't help but feel sometimes North might read out Callaghan' name over JHF based on taking Phillips over Logan.

Bo Callaghan.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

That would depend on whether you plan to play any youth!! Just stating the obvious.

List is about to get a hell of a lot younger quickly

 

[Wrenny]

Hey KM, what are your main differences between Ward and Callaghan? Why is one better than the other etc? Who do you project to be the better player?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, what are your main differences between Ward and Callaghan? Why is one better than the other etc? Who do you project to be the better player?

This is one I've been back and fourth on.

Callaghan is an unbelievable mover. He moves through the midfield like a Bontempelli but then + some added agility and evasion and is a late grower. He's the taller upside guy in a comparison to Ward where his ceiling could be anything. He just doesn't have any of the ball winning, tackling or hardness and will need to develop those components which was actually the same for Bont who at the same age and stage didn't have those components established either. So he's one of those people will speculate and drool over and hope fulfils his upside.

Ward by contrast is the far safer pick and is AFL ready which can't be said of Callaghan with certainty yet. Ward is the better footballer today and was incredible in the second half of the NAB League season, nearing Daicos' level even. He's not a tall midfielder but one of those who does everything to a very good to excellent level - from having the ball winning and accumulation, to the skills, to the speed and agility. There just isn't that special sauce on a level where he doesn't have something we haven't seen before as can be said of the likes of Daicos/Horne-Francis/Darcy/Callaghan.

Better player today? Ward. Who will be better long term? With a higher degree of confidence, Ward will be excellent, but if things go right, Callaghan could be special and on another level.

If picking, probably depends on the team and my confidence in player development. If I have a great culture, great veterans and a team that has a good history of developing talent, I'd take a Callaghan. If I'm a Gold Coast or a team who struggle developing talent and don't have that core of veteran leaders and established players and history of developing players, I'd go with Ward.

 

[the big lebowski]

I can't help but feel sometimes North might read out Callaghan' name over JHF based on taking Phillips over Logan.

Did you know McDonald and Phillips took the same amount of contested marks in their debut seasons? Fun little fact.

The exact same.

 

[Hazardinho]

Hey KM, hope you're well mate. Who would you recommend Essendon pick on draft night? Are players like NWM, Rachele, Goater, Sinn the profiles they should choose from? Should Essendon trade it's future first considering the davey twins are Highley rated in the 2022 draft to this years draft? and a bit away from draft talk, would you recommend Essendon selling the farm for Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

23

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

in 2022 or back in the likes of Eyre, Jones, Wright, Baldwin?

 

[Hazardinho]

Did you know McDonald and Phillips took the same amount of contested marks in their debut seasons? Fun little fact.

The exact same.

did not know that, thats one of them bandulu stats.

 

[Knightmare]

Did you know McDonald and Phillips took the same amount of contested marks in their debut seasons? Fun little fact.

The exact same.

Champion Data's analytics interestingly had Logan McDonald's game as most comparable in 2020 to Eddie Betts. Incredible for someone who led the goalkicking for most of the year and was a part of the WAFL team of the year.

What it is a reflection of is firstly how he plays, but secondly he still likely has a lot of physical development and growth left in him given his rate of improvement in recent years.

Probably a spoiler for if I do a 2020 draft re-do at some point, but Logan McDonald would still be my #1.

And no disrespect to Phillips in making this statement. I still remain confident he'll be an excellent midfielder longer term.

Hey KM, hope you're well mate. Who would you recommend Essendon pick on draft night? Are players like NWM, Rachele, Goater, Sinn the profiles they should choose from? Should Essendon trade it's future first considering the davey twins are Highley rated in the 2022 draft to this years draft? and a bit away from draft talk, would you recommend Essendon selling the farm for Ben King in 2022 or back in the like Eyre, Jones, Wright, Baldwin?

I'd go best available from my order.

Matthew Roberts, *would love Leek Alleer but don't believe he'll be there so probably Jack Avery and if Gold Coast don't want him Bodhi Uwland (if they do Connor MacDonald if available would be nice as another good midfielder).

It's a midfielders draft, so it's an opportunity to load up on a few.

If a club were willing to overpay for that first round, I'd have no personal attachment to the pick, and explore opportunities to move down and what opportunities could come from doing that or into next year's draft. I'm not infatuated with the first round in this draft, so if it could be made into a few second round picks, or a second round pick and a player I'd explore that possibility based at least on my own draft order.

As for who I think Essendon may take with that first round pick, NWM I suspect will be high on the list as a natural list fit on a wing.

If Ben King can be had, he's worth paying up for. If he's moving anywhere though, I believe it will be to St Kilda to play with his brother. They're not just passionate Saints fans, but they're the kind of guys where even though they're both best suited as #1 options i50, they'd rather play together and make it work than be apart.

I feel like people make a big deal about nothing with Essendon's key position players and needing more. If a superstar key position player at either end for that matter can be added, go do that. Otherwise, hold tight and don't add any more, as it's a quality over quantity position.

Essendon I feel like have the competition's worst imbalance, containing far too many key position players, and needing a clear-out. Those who are there I believe to be in the category where they're worth giving more time and development to. Jones if he can stay healthy is solid. Wright I feel like is one Gold Coast didn't develop well and is AFL quality. While Baldwin I've heard Essendon have a fair bit of optimism around also, and he's someone who just needs a good run with injury and if so could be another of AFL quality. So just having those three may pretty much be enough and if Eyre doesn't take meaningful steps in his development, he's one I'd be letting go.

 

[chopflop]

Champion Data's analytics interestingly had Logan McDonald's game as most comparable in 2020 to Eddie Betts. Incredible for someone who led the goalkicking for most of the year and was a part of the WAFL team of the year.

What it is a reflection of is firstly how he plays, but secondly he still likely has a lot of physical development and growth left in him given his rate of improvement in recent years.

Probably a spoiler for if I do a 2020 draft re-do at some point, but Logan McDonald would still be my #1.

And no disrespect to Phillips in making this statement. I still remain confident he'll be an excellent midfielder longer term.



I'd go best available from my order.

Matthew Roberts, *would love Leek Alleer but don't believe he'll be there so probably Jack Avery and if Gold Coast don't want him Bodhi Uwland (if they do Connor MacDonald if available would be nice as another good midfielder).

It's a midfielders draft, so it's an opportunity to load up on a few.

If a club were willing to overpay for that first round, I'd have no personal attachment to the pick, and explore opportunities to move down and what opportunities could come from doing that or into next year's draft. I'm not infatuated with the first round in this draft, so if it could be made into a few second round picks, or a second round pick and a player I'd explore that possibility based at least on my own draft order.

As for who I think Essendon may take with that first round pick, NWM I suspect will be high on the list as a natural list fit on a wing.

If Ben King can be had, he's worth paying up for. If he's moving anywhere though, I believe it will be to St Kilda to play with his brother. They're not just passionate Saints fans, but they're the kind of guys where even though they're both best suited as #1 options i50, they'd rather play together and make it work than be apart.

I feel like people make a big deal about nothing with Essendon's key position players and needing more. If a superstar key position player at either end for that matter can be added, go do that. Otherwise, hold tight and don't add any more, as it's a quality over quantity position.

Essendon I feel like have the competition's worst imbalance, containing far too many key position players, and needing a clear-out. Those who are there I believe to be in the category where they're worth giving more time and development to. Jones if he can stay healthy is solid. Wright I feel like is one Gold Coast didn't develop well and is AFL quality. While Baldwin I've heard Essendon have a fair bit of optimism around also, and he's someone who just needs a good run with injury and if so could be another of AFL quality. So just having those three may pretty much be enough and if Eyre doesn't take meaningful steps in his development, he's one I'd be letting go.

I reckon I did a knightmare on Logan McDonald last year. Most overrated KPP I have seen in recent memory. Only needed a few highlights packages to see he lacks awareness in pack situations, doesn't judge the ball in flight, and can really only take contested marks at a high frequency with quick delivery and he is one on one and generally, when the ball gets out the back he is quite good at working his man under it. In the team defense landscape of afl, these opportunities are few and far between and kpfs must work against multiple zoning/blocking players. Logan projects to be an average to above average KPF based on his endurance and kicking. He won't be a star of the comp. He got towelled up when playing on a 75 odd kg Will Day. Literally got smoked. Average average player. Braeden Campbell will be a far better recruit for Sydney and I still rate the call of Phillips over Lmac everyday.

 

[cairo tiger]

This is one I've been back and fourth on.

Callaghan is an unbelievable mover. He moves through the midfield like a Bontempelli but then + some added agility and evasion and is a late grower. He's the taller upside guy in a comparison to Ward where his ceiling could be anything. He just doesn't have any of the ball winning, tackling or hardness and will need to develop those components which was actually the same for Bont who at the same age and stage didn't have those components established either. So he's one of those people will speculate and drool over and hope fulfils his upside.

Ward by contrast is the far safer pick and is AFL ready which can't be said of Callaghan with certainty yet. Ward is the better footballer today and was incredible in the second half of the NAB League season, nearing Daicos' level even. He's not a tall midfielder but one of those who does everything to a very good to excellent level - from having the ball winning and accumulation, to the skills, to the speed and agility. There just isn't that special sauce on a level where he doesn't have something we haven't seen before as can be said of the likes of Daicos/Horne-Francis/Darcy/Callaghan.

Better player today? Ward. Who will be better long term? With a higher degree of confidence, Ward will be excellent, but if things go right, Callaghan could be special and on another level.

If picking, probably depends on the team and my confidence in player development. If I have a great culture, great veterans and a team that has a good history of developing talent, I'd take a Callaghan. If I'm a Gold Coast or a team who struggle developing talent and don't have that core of veteran leaders and established players and history of developing players, I'd go with Ward.

thanks doe this, so tigers are after ward reading b/w lines. Cotchin replacement and the rumours about trading up make sense, once again thanks KM

 

[Billyc]

People here have lost the plot. KM rates JHF second in the draft and thinks he will be an excellent player, top 20 midfielder in the comp and possibly the best defensive midfielder in the comp. He doesn’t think he will be an all time great like Nathan Buckley or Dangerfield. Very high probability he is correct. Very few players in the history of the game get to that level (Buckley at least). Get over it. Cannot believe people have wasted so much time on something this petty

 

[Glenny83]

I reckon I did a knightmare on Logan McDonald last year. Most overrated KPP I have seen in recent memory. Only needed a few highlights packages to see he lacks awareness in pack situations, doesn't judge the ball in flight, and can really only take contested marks at a high frequency with quick delivery and he is one on one and generally, when the ball gets out the back he is quite good at working his man under it. In the team defense landscape of afl, these opportunities are few and far between and kpfs must work against multiple zoning/blocking players. Logan projects to be an average to above average KPF based on his endurance and kicking. He won't be a star of the comp. He got towelled up when playing on a 75 odd kg Will Day. Literally got smoked. Average average player. Braeden Campbell will be a far better recruit for Sydney and I still rate the call of Phillips over Lmac everyday.

If he was literally smoked, and, I'm not saying he wasn't, Will Day's capabilities on the football field have been vastly understated.

 

[Chris25]

People here have lost the plot. KM rates JHF second in the draft and thinks he will be an excellent player, top 20 midfielder in the comp and possibly the best defensive midfielder in the comp. He doesn’t think he will be an all time great like Nathan Buckley or Dangerfield. Very high probability he is correct. Very few players in the history of the game get to that level (Buckley at least). Get over it. Cannot believe people have wasted so much time on something this petty

What else is there to do?

 

[Smythe]

Bo Callaghan.

“You get Bo, say it with me you pancake eating mutha f”

 

[Knightmare]

I reckon I did a knightmare on Logan McDonald last year. Most overrated KPP I have seen in recent memory. Only needed a few highlights packages to see he lacks awareness in pack situations, doesn't judge the ball in flight, and can really only take contested marks at a high frequency with quick delivery and he is one on one and generally, when the ball gets out the back he is quite good at working his man under it. In the team defense landscape of afl, these opportunities are few and far between and kpfs must work against multiple zoning/blocking players. Logan projects to be an average to above average KPF based on his endurance and kicking. He won't be a star of the comp. He got towelled up when playing on a 75 odd kg Will Day. Literally got smoked. Average average player. Braeden Campbell will be a far better recruit for Sydney and I still rate the call of Phillips over Lmac everyday.

Key forwards typically aren't great in their first year. He'll get stronger, improve as a mark and kill teams with what he does at ground level for a tall.

Given what sounds like a very low view of McDonald. Are you prepared to state your valuation as to your perception of his worth and state what you believe his career outcome is likely to be?

thanks doe this, so tigers are after ward reading b/w lines. Cotchin replacement and the rumours about trading up make sense, once again thanks KM

He's a good target. I'm sure it won't count for anything among Richmond's recruiting team, but Ward gets my tick of approval. Once Horne-Francis and Callaghan are off the board of those non father-sons, Ward is definitely my guy.

 

[Billyc]

What else is there to do?

Refrain from a 5 page pile on when somebody thinks an 18 year old who hasn’t played a game is likely to be a very good player but unlikely to be a Hall of Fame level player?

 

[Rusty Beam]

What else is there to do?

You’re not in lockdown are you?

I’d suggest more than a lot of us!

 

[WaynesWorld19]

As per my earlier comments, I'm not in agreement that JHF will be Danger quality or a Danger type of player. His game contrasts to Danger because he's so much better defensively and lacks the same level of ball winning or hurt-factor offensively.

Clayton Oliver is the most thoughtful stylistic comparison I've heard to date and certainly a lot more representative of the balance to his game. And he's not nearly going to be that level of ball winner or accumulator, but stylistically at least it's getting warmer.

Sorry to intrude .....but the Danger comparison in any form is misleading with JFH ....shouldn't be in any discussion

Danger had a rare combination of speed & strength, I have rarely seen in my decades of following footy .....early days it would take 2 guys + to bring him down in a tackle, such was the combative way he played his early footy
He was never strong defensively & clubs have used this weakness to try and exploit Danger over the years

I certainly can see more of the Oliver traits .....but I see JFH and, although currently topical, I see more of Michael Voss's playing style than even Oliver

I just find too many want to identify the next Dangerfield .....it's going to be a very rare individual that can be compared

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Don’t bother mate , he’s so deep in his own head he refuses to see others good points / opinions.

Can I just say .....over the nearly 20 years on Big Footy, I've seen a few too many good posters with Draft Knowledge driven off the Draft Boards

Why this happens so often is hard to understand .....but it appears after a few years, every comment gets harshly questioned

Please lets appreciate every POV ....doesn't mean you agree, debate certainly ......but the put downs serves no beneficial purpose at all, except potentially to rob us of yet another valuable contributor

 

[Chris25]

Refrain from a 5 page pile on when somebody thinks an 18 year old who hasn’t played a game is likely to be a very good player but unlikely to be a Hall of Fame level player?

It always seems to bother other people more than it does KM. Not sure why that is. He’s always willing to have a discussion and can fight his own battles. And never being challenged is so boring.