Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[VinnieB]

Jackson is all of about 1cm off 200cm; and for all I know he could be 200cm since being drafted.

For all the words you've used, and I appreciate your detailed reply, you've not once touched on what makes Jackson the player he is. His footy IQ.

He's just about the smartest young ruck I've seen. And it's those smarts that made him such an influencer in a premiership side as a teenager.

It's also why he's better than your original power rankings and better than your present assessment.

It's what you ''missed'' and I suspect still do.

Right now I think Jackson is the best player from that draft and will only continue to get better.
Has influenced games at the best team in the game, rather than being a good player in an ordinary team.

 

[brooksnk]

Right now I think Jackson is the best player from that draft and will only continue to get better.
Has influenced games at the best team in the game, rather than being a good player in an ordinary team.

someones a little salty about an opinion they heard on the internet...

 

[VinnieB]

someones a little salty about an opinion they heard on the internet...

??

 

[ArdentEagle]

Proven big game players are worth their weight in gold. Its a no contest thus far, IMO. Has to be Smith.

Hopefully for Norths sake, all their shiny new toys we've heard so much about will come to fruition and they'll get themselves to some big finals...TT can actually show us what he can do on the big stage.

 

[Shinboner1]

Proven big game players are worth their weight in gold. Its a no contest thus far, IMO. Has to be Smith.

Hopefully for Norths sake, all their shiny new toys we've heard so much about will come to fruition and they'll get themselves to some big finals...TT can actually show us what he can do on the big stage.

Beat your mob with poor endurance and stamina.
Wait to see what happens with this new SC team and another year of development into the kids bodies.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Beat your mob with poor endurance and stamina.
Wait to see what happens with this new SC team and another year of development into the kids bodies.

We were awful the further the season progressed. Hanging on to a dated gameplan that the players lost more and more faith in the further it went on.
You guys deserved the win that day, no doubt. That wasn't what my initial comment was really about. (Big game player value)

However, there seems to be a lot of commentary from some North supporters now you've managed to get the #1 pick (really something to be proud of??), hopefully a good slider and Greenwood to add to that midfield. It's almost coming across as cocky. I suppose for a team starved of recent success, it's great to have something to cheer for and have genuine reason for hope on the horizon. Success is more than just the some of its parts though....Counting Chickens and all of that.

 

[the big lebowski]

However, there seems to be a lot of commentary from some North supporters now you've managed to get the #1 pick (really something to be proud of??), hopefully a good slider and Greenwood to add to that midfield. It's almost coming across as cocky. I suppose for a team starved of recent success, it's great to have something to cheer for and have genuine reason for hope on the horizon. Success is more than just the some of its parts though....Counting Chickens and all of that.

Obviously finishing last is nothing to be proud of. But hopefully it’s the one and only time it happens in this rebuild. And given the nature of the rebuild that would be a pretty good thing and somewhat surprising to many.

I’m hoping for a minimum 7 wins, which is double the back half of 2021. But wouldn’t be surprised with more.

 

[Shinboner1]

We were awful the further the season progressed. Hanging on to a dated gameplan that the players lost more and more faith in the further it went on.
You guys deserved the win that day, no doubt. That wasn't what my initial comment was really about. (Big game player value)

However, there seems to be a lot of commentary from some North supporters now you've managed to get the #1 pick (really something to be proud of??), hopefully a good slider and Greenwood to add to that midfield. It's almost coming across as cocky. I suppose for a team starved of recent success, it's great to have something to cheer for and have genuine reason for hope on the horizon. Success is more than just the some of its parts though....Counting Chickens and all of that.

Yeah its almost like poor endurance and stamina in games led to North not being able to play a full competitive season.
The team did get better in the 2nd half once the game plan started to shine through.
Norths never had the #1 pick and we've got a stud out of it.
Most fans are excited by the way direction the clubs moving and the improvements after being stuck for so long.
Wont be long until we start playing finals.

 

[Usayed Givashe]

Jackson is all of about 1cm off 200cm; and for all I know he could be 200cm since being drafted.

For all the words you've used, and I appreciate your detailed reply, you've not once touched on what makes Jackson the player he is. His footy IQ.

He's just about the smartest young ruck I've seen. And it's those smarts that made him such an influencer in a premiership side as a teenager.

It's also why he's better than your original power rankings and better than your present assessment.

It's what you ''missed'' and I suspect still do.

He’s the best young ruckman/Utility since Corey McKernan. An Brownlow winning superstar.

I see the same athletic ability and skill combination but also ability to influence the result.

Corey had 29 possessions in a grand final 25 years ago playing Ruck. It’s unheard of, and Jackson is just as good IMO.

 

[brooksnk]

??

You made the point that the distinction between output in a top and bottom team is a silly point - then made the same point yourself in the next post, which I could only assume was sarcasm? Perhaps I interpreted wrong, if so, my apologies.

 

[sunsofanarchy]

Hey KM, what is your predicted 1-18 for season 22?

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Knightmare]

He couldn't keep his spot in the best 22 of a side that didn't have a capable forward line in 2020 in a role of need being tall forward.
Has put up mediocre numbers across the board and seems to need to be fed the ball to get possessions vs getting them himself.
Was most likely scouted as a person of interest because he has played 'some footy' across his career, and his averages don't exactly scream pick me pick me.
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I think North are perfectly fine with CCJ now even in a ruck/forward role considering we have xerri and edwards building into the position and the club has actively said they'll be playing 2 rucks moving forward. Also have comben who debuted last year and has been going from strength to strength in the preseason. Seems to be really highly rated at the club also.
Agree with your principle around tall forwards and I'm glad the trade never happened.

I agree with you in as much as I don't rate Weideman as a key forward for AFL purposes.

CCJ though I can't say I'm all that high on anymore and I worry about the long deal offered to someone with off-field problems who hasn't shown at AFL level he can game after game produce to a sufficient level, with only a few tastes here/there of good play.

Xerri doesn't appear to be in North Melbourne's long term plans and would need to make a jump in 2022 for that to change.

Edwards is promising and should develop while Comben needs to remain healthy before he can be included in long term calculations.

Jackson is all of about 1cm off 200cm; and for all I know he could be 200cm since being drafted.

For all the words you've used, and I appreciate your detailed reply, you've not once touched on what makes Jackson the player he is. His footy IQ.

He's just about the smartest young ruck I've seen. And it's those smarts that made him such an influencer in a premiership side as a teenager.

It's also why he's better than your original power rankings and better than your present assessment.

It's what you ''missed'' and I suspect still do.

200cm is short for a ruckman. That's shorter than Nic Nat who isn't tall either by position. Only Mumford and Ryder of the recent good ruckmen top of mind are shorter.

Those who are taller ordinarily will develop a lot later while Jackson relatively as with a lot of those ruckmen taken early draft historically could be another of those to develop earlier, but may not continue improving into his mid 20s as others do.

I wouldn't class Jackson as an 'influential' player to a premiership side at this point in his development. That's a reach. He was a component who played his role and contributed solidly, but he's not at this point one of Melbourne's best 10. He's not there yet. Next year he may be though if he keeps developing to expectation.

Early days, it does look like Jackson will be a good deal better than the 13th best from the 2019 draft, but whether he's going to be a top-5 player from that draft I'd class today, that's where I see the question around him long term being, with that a 50/50 equation for me at this point. I have him roughly as the 5th/6th best from the 2019 draft long term.

For the record you see Jackson as the best player there at 3 long term? Because I'll be on record and say I'd still today bid on Tom Green (which would be matched) before picking Caleb Serong. With a view of rotating Serong between midfield and forward as he was at the time he was drafted a genuine dual position impact player, and really a great deal better in hindsight as a midfielder than I was projecting.

Whether Green and/or Serong will be better long term, we'll have to wait and see. But they're as of today as I would have said this time last year my preferred players given the simplicity of securing a good ruckman be it via trade or through a rookie draft.

An interesting point on Melbourne's 2019 draft, and Pickett I didn't nearly rate highly enough, though like Jackson he is another beneficiary of Melbourne getting everything right - from coaching, the culture, to group buy-in among other factors. But is Jackson definitely better than Pickett even? If I could have one or the other, and it might depend on a club's needs, but on performance today I view Pickett as the much more influential player and given the greater scarcity of players his type at his position v Jackson, I'd probably take him also ahead of Jackson as someone I felt was unlucky not to be an All-Australian this year. Judging today, I see Pickett as having a higher probability of being the best small forward in the competition than I'd say of Jackson being the best ruckman or ruck/forward depending on how Melbourne want long term to use him.

 

[Knightmare]

He’s the best young ruckman/Utility since Corey McKernan. An Brownlow winning superstar.

I see the same athletic ability and skill combination but also ability to influence the result.

Corey had 29 possessions in a grand final 25 years ago playing Ruck. It’s unheard of, and Jackson is just as good IMO.

That's a big call. Where McKernan has an edge I don't see Jackson making up for is craft forward of centre, or taking contested grabs.

Hey KM, what is your predicted 1-18 for season 22?

On SM-G991B using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'll make a video with a ladder prediction during the preseason.

Melbourne I tip to go back to back. The rest of the positions though I'll take my time considering until then, as some moves during the PSP may change my mind on some teams and slightly move the needle.

 

[weltschmerz]

Where do you see Darcy settling? We need a KPD, but I can also see Darcy going forward where he’s shown a lot of ability, and English going back as a marking tall defender.

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you see Darcy settling? We need a KPD, but I can also see Darcy going forward where he’s shown a lot of ability, and English going back as a marking tall defender.

Darcy I look at as best utilitised up forward. Like Jamarra, he's one of those special key forwards who can be among the very best in the competition by position in time. Both of them on any other team would be #1 options i50, so that's a really fortunate dynamic to have.

I'd personally play Darcy forward and shift English back.

If English shifts back to support Keath and O'Brien is there for an additional intercept marking threat, the Dogs should be well positioned in defence and much improved.

Only dilemma then would be who can be the ruckman.

 

[THE A5]

KM what do you think Dittmar was snubbed?

 

[Knightmare]

KM what do you think Dittmar was snubbed?

Why I think you mean?

Other clubs ultimately at their various picks rated someone else more highly.

Eagles will have Dittmar training on with them in hope of still winning a list position during the PSP. So it's not like he wasn't considered.

Had West Coast not passed during the rookie draft and if we didn't have a PSP or MSD, they would have taken either Dittmar or Strnadica as a booster to their ruck depth.

 

[Shinboner1]

I agree with you in as much as I don't rate Weideman as a key forward for AFL purposes.

CCJ though I can't say I'm all that high on anymore and I worry about the long deal offered to someone with off-field problems who hasn't shown at AFL level he can game after game produce to a sufficient level, with only a few tastes here/there of good play.

Xerri doesn't appear to be in North Melbourne's long term plans and would need to make a jump in 2022 for that to change.

Edwards is promising and should develop while Comben needs to remain healthy before he can be included in long term calculations.

I would have said the same until I saw him at training this preseason.
Super mobile and agile for a tall player who's almost as good getting ground balls as he is in the air.
He'll look good in the forward line backing up goldy as 2nd ruck.
Larkey needs that 2nd tall who can take some pressure off and CCJ 100% gives him that.

 

[jakkowiz]

In Jackson's draft year you were not the only one to underrate Jackson's ability including alot of Melbourne people on here, the same Melbourne people have quickly jumped on the Jackson bandwagon as they now know how wrong they were, not only would 99.9 % of Melbourne supporters take Jackson at pick 3 we would take with pick 1

 

[Crow till I die]

Hi KM

Not sure if this one has been raised with you before but there was an article in the herald sun and this part of it has our board curious as we think it is wrong...but hope it is right. Can you shed any light on the accuracy of Max Michalanney qualifying as a father son for Adelaide next year (2022). Cheers

Max Michalanney
Norwood/SA

Defender, 190cm, 70kg

Adelaide father-son prospect

Michalanney qualifies as Crows father-son prospect after his dad, Norwood great Jim, played 211 SANFL games for the Redlegs between 1974 and 1986. And the versatile, mid-sized defender, with a nice turn of speed, is one who will receive plenty of attention in 2022.

Michalanney, who reads the play well and is very composed, can play taller than his height suggests and was the sixth-ranked player for intercept possessions at SANFL under-18 level last season.

 

[Usayed Givashe]

That's a big call. Where McKernan has an edge I don't see Jackson making up for is craft forward of centre, or taking contested grabs.

Agree with this, Corey managed to go forward and be match-winner in a GF, but Jackson has 6 years to get to that point and learn forward craft.

McKernan in 1994-1996 is where I see Jackson should he remain injury free.

It’s also not just about stats, it’s the knock ons, sheer athleticism in being the 4th midfielder and the implied/real pressure that he brings around the ball. Corey could rove his own hit-outs and then kick 70m torps on the run, or punch the ball forward 25m and absolute freak in finals. Genuine freak.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Hi KM

Not sure if this one has been raised with you before but there was an article in the herald sun and this part of it has our board curious as we think it is wrong...but hope it is right. Can you shed any light on the accuracy of Max Michalanney qualifying as a father son for Adelaide next year (2022). Cheers

Max Michalanney
Norwood/SA

Defender, 190cm, 70kg

Adelaide father-son prospect

Michalanney qualifies as Crows father-son prospect after his dad, Norwood great Jim, played 211 SANFL games for the Redlegs between 1974 and 1986. And the versatile, mid-sized defender, with a nice turn of speed, is one who will receive plenty of attention in 2022.

Michalanney, who reads the play well and is very composed, can play taller than his height suggests and was the sixth-ranked player for intercept possessions at SANFL under-18 level last season.

I'm pretty sure that includes SANFL pre season games so he doesn't have over 200 official SANFL games.

 

[Crow till I die]

I'm pretty sure that includes SANFL pre season games so he doesn't have over 200 official SANFL games.

Thats our line of thinking..escort cup night games. But it curious that one of the main papers has run with the story. Has there been a change to the eligibility rules we may not be aware of?..surely not as otherwise james borlase would have qualified also as a f/s for port?

 

[foodles05]

Thats our line of thinking..escort cup night games. But it curious that one of the main papers has run with the story. Has there been a change to the eligibility rules we may not be aware of?..surely not as otherwise james borlase would have qualified also as a f/s for port?

He is father son and expect he goes top 20

 

[Knightmare]

I would have said the same until I saw him at training this preseason.
Super mobile and agile for a tall player who's almost as good getting ground balls as he is in the air.
He'll look good in the forward line backing up goldy as 2nd ruck.
Larkey needs that 2nd tall who can take some pressure off and CCJ 100% gives him that.

CCJ does as per your observation have that combo of contested marking and that mobility and ground level capability. He just can't jump over a sheet of paper as one of the more ground-bound players you'll see.

Coleman-Jones has had his 4 years in the system and still isn't quite that best-22 piece. Maybe it's just a regular run of games required and given he is that big taller, that additional leeway is possible, but for me I think he could remain on that fringe and I continue to worry about him off-field. If there are off-field question marks, long term deals are a no-no.

It's like if Collingwood signed Jordan De Goey to a 6 year deal let's say. I'd be calling them out for that. If it's a two year deal, that's fine, but when you have someone at risk of being stood down, it's not playing the percentages and it can get you from a salary cap perspective in a lot of trouble.

In Jackson's draft year you were not the only one to underrate Jackson's ability including alot of Melbourne people on here, the same Melbourne people have quickly jumped on the Jackson bandwagon as they now know how wrong they were, not only would 99.9 % of Melbourne supporters take Jackson at pick 3 we would take with pick 1

Melbourne fans are welcome to be fully on the Jackson bandwagon.

I'm expecting a very strong career, 250 games and he can be one of the best ruckmen in the competition.

I can't say I'm going to make any too the moon projections on him though. I know all too well the history of ruckmen taken early draft and how they tend to stop developing sooner and tend to have their careers cut shorter. Being protected by Gawn being the no.1 greatly helps him in this respect, but still we've had others still have their time early days playing more as key forwards and still fail to keep improving later.

Nic Nat is the most successful of those early picked rucks, but the vast majority of others have really been sad stories of shortened careers and bodies falling apart too soon where by 30 they're often shot, whereas those taken later tend to have started to really come good at 24/25 and have those prime years out the back end.

I'm more than happy to be on record that at pick 1 or pick 3, I'm passing on Jackson. Both because of how cheaply good ruckmen can be acquired, and my expectation that there will be several midfielders who will have better careers. My expectation remains both Green and Serong have the better careers of those still available at 3.

Being early stages, it could well go either way, but I'm more than happy to be the contrarian if others believe Jackson will be the best from his pool.

Hi KM

Not sure if this one has been raised with you before but there was an article in the herald sun and this part of it has our board curious as we think it is wrong...but hope it is right. Can you shed any light on the accuracy of Max Michalanney qualifying as a father son for Adelaide next year (2022). Cheers

Max Michalanney
Norwood/SA

Defender, 190cm, 70kg

Adelaide father-son prospect

Michalanney qualifies as Crows father-son prospect after his dad, Norwood great Jim, played 211 SANFL games for the Redlegs between 1974 and 1986. And the versatile, mid-sized defender, with a nice turn of speed, is one who will receive plenty of attention in 2022.

Michalanney, who reads the play well and is very composed, can play taller than his height suggests and was the sixth-ranked player for intercept possessions at SANFL under-18 level last season.

Max will qualify as his father played 200 games for Norwood before 1991 which is the requirement.

The official rule is as follows:
"The Adelaide Football Club may include a person on its Primary List if that person’s father played 200 or more Senior Matches (being either home and away or finals series matches) at one of the following clubs prior to but not including, 1991: (A) Norwood Football Club; (B) Glenelg Football Club; (C) Sturt Football Club; or (D) South Adelaide Football Club"

That would be strange if preseason games are counted in his officially listed 211 played. I haven't heard of a competition counting preseason games as part of total games played. Maybe the SANFL did at that time? I'll leave answering that to those more familiar with how the SANFL counted games played during those times.

Agree with this, Corey managed to go forward and be match-winner in a GF, but Jackson has 6 years to get to that point and learn forward craft.

McKernan in 1994-1996 is where I see Jackson should he remain injury free.

It’s also not just about stats, it’s the knock ons, sheer athleticism in being the 4th midfielder and the implied/real pressure that he brings around the ball. Corey could rove his own hit-outs and then kick 70m torps on the run, or punch the ball forward 25m and absolute freak in finals. Genuine freak.

Jackson should be just as competitive through the ruck if not a touch better through there even, but I don't ever see him developing that forward of centre game to that McKernan level. If he does though, he'll needless to say be a problem as McKernan was.

From that booming kick, to that contested mark, to that scoreboard impact. I don't see Jackson touching any of that.

I do respect Jackson at ground level just as I do McKernan though, both are those not just athletic, but smart footballers.