Opinion Knightsight, Hinesight and Hindsight Nov 2016 and 2017

BPikkers

Cancelled
Oct 14, 2014
5,077
5,888
AFL Club
Collingwood
Not sure why there is all of this Lukosius talk, unless you think we are going to finish bottom 3.

No-one is going to trade a top 5 pick next year, let alone a top 3 pick.

That - along with the fact that Lynch costs salary cap cost only, and we are now in a premiership window - are the reasons why we are are focussing on him.... & maybe a key back like McDonald. Right?
If we are in our premiership window, then the comp must be extremely ordinary. I don’t see us finishing any higher than this year.

Having said that, for the Tigers to win this year’s premiership, maybe the comp is at its worst.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

PIrOed

Senior List
Oct 7, 2016
192
357
Area Unknown
AFL Club
Collingwood
Cox if that happened. Thst said while we go Grundy, Cox, Moore there won't be much use of Moore in the ruck.
I'd go the other way on that. If playing all three of Moore, Cox and Grundy I'd rather see Moore relieve Grundy in the ruck and Cox spend his time up forward. My thinking is that provides a more stable structure, both when Grundy is in the ruck or on the bench. Additionally if the club does pull one out of the hat and recruit Lynch then it would be an easy swap of Cox for Lynch thus improving the team with minimal disruption to how the team plays.
 

Dynamics

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 23, 2007
5,992
9,397
AFL Club
Collingwood
Perhaps rather than Moore becoming a pure defender, he replaces Reid and becomes a genuine swingman who can also ruck as required. Asking too much of him? Maybe. Risks him becoming a jack of all trades and master of none.

He looks good when he spells in the ruck, that's for sure. But then Cox can be a very good tap ruck.

The way we have been drafting and the way the game seems to be going, I don't know that we need three big men all fighting for spots up front, especially when there is a need for a second younger KPD to come through with Farty, who is yet to play senior footy let alone cement a spot.

For perspective, Lynch is a beast and is the shortest of the 3 at 199cm.
 

Saintly Viewed

Premium Platinum
Aug 10, 2015
47,337
38,982
AFL Club
Collingwood
Not sure why there is all of this Lukosius talk, unless you think we are going to finish bottom 3.

No-one is going to trade a top 5 pick next year, let alone a top 3 pick.

That - along with the fact that Lynch costs salary cap cost only, and we are now in a premiership window - are the reasons why we are are focussing on him.... & maybe a key back like McDonald. Right?
You really have nailed a key point here.

Nobody is readily giving away those golden tickets bottom draft picks. Will not happen.
And can see the afl integrity being as high as it is, somehow giving GC an extra low pick.

I'd love a low pick and will be happy speculating on it, but just won't happen in reality.
You're right on this.
 

TradeDraft

Premium Gold
Oct 18, 2009
123,341
53,243
Mornington Peninsula
AFL Club
Collingwood
Not sure why there is all of this Lukosius talk, unless you think we are going to finish bottom 3.

No-one is going to trade a top 5 pick next year, let alone a top 3 pick.

That - along with the fact that Lynch costs salary cap cost only, and we are now in a premiership window - are the reasons why we are are focussing on him.... & maybe a key back like McDonald. Right?
We where Heavily Linked to Sloane during the Trade Period
 

jackcass

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 8, 2007
18,691
16,177
Bendigo
AFL Club
Collingwood
De Goey needs to play full time in the midfield to achieve this. He has not played a full game at all that I can remember. I fully believe he can easily achieve those figures but he hasn't been given the chance to prove it. Given our list profile i am not confident he will be given the chance this year either. I think he might be stuck in starvation corner again a lot.
DeGoey needs to:
1. build the tank to an acceptable standard to play midfield full time; and
2. show that he offers more than the incumbents on a consistent basis.
 

ash84

Club Legend
Mar 18, 2008
1,682
1,146
Exmouth
AFL Club
Collingwood
If we are in our premiership window, then the comp must be extremely ordinary. I don’t see us finishing any higher than this year.

Having said that, for the Tigers to win this year’s premiership, maybe the comp is at its worst.
I don't think the comp is at its worst.
I think it is at its most even.
I don't think the Tigers premiership team is as good as any of the premiership teams from the past decade apart from the Dogs, so i think that is a sign of the comp evening out.
I reckon about 10 teams have a genuine shot next year.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
16,949
15,276
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
To me, I just don't see where the improvement will come from with Wright. He's a mark and kick forward who doesn't have the pace to get separation and isn't strong or aggressive in a contest. He's very neat, but I just don't ever see him getting much of the ball, particularly if Lynch goes and he gets more defensive focus put on him.
Wright as a junior more than had the pace to create separation on the lead. Unless this has changed more recently and I just haven't watched enough Gold Coast due to their infrequent free to air appearances?

His issue as a junior was his 1v1 stuff, if you so much as blew on him, he'd drop the ball, doing all his work on the lead, relying on his pace to find most of his ball.

Not sure why there is all of this Lukosius talk, unless you think we are going to finish bottom 3.

No-one is going to trade a top 5 pick next year, let alone a top 3 pick.

That - along with the fact that Lynch costs salary cap cost only, and we are now in a premiership window - are the reasons why we are are focussing on him.... & maybe a key back like McDonald. Right?
It's going to be no easy task to get a pick that could get Lukosius, unless a bottom three pick as you say, but if you trade aggressively enough and put the chips on the table, you can never say never.
 

Scodog10

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 25, 2008
18,435
26,974
The Linc
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Oakland Raiders
On the night I would have gone:

6 - Aiden Bonar

I reckon Bonar could be the best player from this draft. I like his range of goal scoring avenues. He does it all from pack marks, to leads, speed to find space, crumbs and snaps. And at an almost key position height he addresses a need for tall forwards. I reckon he could fit in well with Lynch if we get him and is a perfect modern forward. Big gamble though!

Next in line: Nick Coffield then Jaidyn Stephenson.

In hindsight: - I wouldn't have traded for Aish. We'd have retained our 2016 2nd rounder and used that on WHE. In that scenario we have this years 2017 2nd rounder.

25 - Harry Petty

He'd be the key back i'd take. I like his all round game. Great kick of the ball. Intercepts. Good hand ball. Good pace. Can lock down on an opponent. Needs to fill out though.

Next in line: Sam Taylor - Actually may have been the better option, is a unit and ready to go.

39 - Nathan Murphy

Can't go past Nathans footskills here. But hard to pass on Ben Paton for me also. I like Bens combination of pace and footskills off half back.One of my favourites of the draft. That said I like the Murphy selection, his kicking is more elite but without the pace.

50 - Matched bid for Tyler Brown. I love Tylers agility. Knows how to move. Plenty to develop there.

60 - Jordan Butts.

I would have punted on the youngest player in the draft on potential. He is a key position, can play both ends, agile and a marking machine. I'd begin by developing him as a key forward as a project player. I'm thinking 3 years down the track.

We get: Aiden Bonar (KPF, third tall, midfielder), Harry Petty (KPD), Nathan Murphy (HBF, third tall), Tyler Brown (wing), Jordan Butts (KPF/KPD).
I love your draft from a list management perspective Quicky, but would have just made some slight adjustments by sticking with Stephenson and taking Barry over Butts. I’d have gone with Butts in the rookie draft.

The Stephenson pick has really won me over post draft as more information about him has come to the surface re his heart. In the modern game the premium mids have that mix of inside and out because they break games open and make things happen. Spread from the contest is a huge area of weakness for Collingwood and once Stephenson has built up his core strength he’ll become a weapon, IMO. Barry would have given us that extra option as a dasher off HB if Murray isn’t it and a bit (as we expect him to be).

What I can’t help reflecting on though is what were we thinking with Aish? With the benefit of hindsight it just feels like we did it to one up Brisbane after the Beams saga and given how we’ve developed him since it just hasn’t worked. The most frustrating aspect is that we didn’t identify a role for him before making the move. You also have to wonder what we offered for him to make the call and come down, it wasn’t Mayne level craziness, but still we’d be in a much better position without it.*

Overall though that draft and collection of movements leaves us in a stronger place, IMO.

* That wasn’t to pot Aish either because he’s still young, has returned in a good way this off-season and could still be a player. However from a list management POV (which this thread is all about) it was an ill advised move for us...
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Quicky

Premium Platinum
May 27, 2008
20,568
19,718
Wherever I May Roam
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Socceroos, Melbourne Victory
I love your draft from a list management perspective Quicky, but would have just made some slight adjustments by sticking with Stephenson and taking Barry over Butts. I’d have gone with Butts in the rookie draft.

The Stephenson pick has really won me over post draft as more information about him has come to the surface re his heart. In the modern game the premium mids have that mix of inside and out because they break games open and make things happen. Spread from the contest is a huge area of weakness for Collingwood and once Stephenson has built up his core strength he’ll become a weapon, IMO. Barry would have given us that extra option as a dasher off HB if Murray isn’t it and a bit (as we expect him to be).

What I can’t help reflecting on though is what were we thinking with Aish? With the benefit of hindsight it just feels like we did it to one up Brisbane after the Beams saga and given how we’ve developed him since it just hasn’t worked. The most frustrating aspect is that we didn’t identify a role for him before making the move. You also have to wonder what we offered for him to make the call and come down, it wasn’t Mayne level craziness, but still we’d be in a much better position without it.*

Overall though that draft and collection of movements leaves us in a stronger place, IMO.

* That wasn’t to pot Aish either because he’s still young, has returned in a good way this off-season and could still be a player. However from a list management POV (which this thread is all about) it was an ill advised move for us...
I'm really stoked with Stephenson. I had Coffield then Stephenson in order of preference right to about draft day. And then changed my mind to Bonar. Bonar because I felt we needed some contingency in the event we missed out on Lynch. We're very vulnerable there because we have no one developing. But i'm really comfortable with the clubs decision.

On Coffield I love him as a player but it was probably easier to recruit for a half back later in the draft so i'm easy about leaving him also. We got Murphy and other options to us were Paton and Barry. If we went for Barry we would have missed Appleby and I really like him and think we needed a stopper back there.

I still wonder what on earth we do about key forward. We have no depth this year. There are a lot of eggs in the Lynch basket for into the future. If we miss him we likely can't adjust for another mature option. It would be hit the draft time which means 3-4 years of development. It leaves us vulnerable.
 

Bard

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2012
5,785
5,153
Fitzroy
AFL Club
Collingwood
I love your draft from a list management perspective Quicky, but would have just made some slight adjustments by sticking with Stephenson and taking Barry over Butts. I’d have gone with Butts in the rookie draft.

The Stephenson pick has really won me over post draft as more information about him has come to the surface re his heart. In the modern game the premium mids have that mix of inside and out because they break games open and make things happen. Spread from the contest is a huge area of weakness for Collingwood and once Stephenson has built up his core strength he’ll become a weapon, IMO. Barry would have given us that extra option as a dasher off HB if Murray isn’t it and a bit (as we expect him to be).

What I can’t help reflecting on though is what were we thinking with Aish? With the benefit of hindsight it just feels like we did it to one up Brisbane after the Beams saga and given how we’ve developed him since it just hasn’t worked. The most frustrating aspect is that we didn’t identify a role for him before making the move. You also have to wonder what we offered for him to make the call and come down, it wasn’t Mayne level craziness, but still we’d be in a much better position without it.*

Overall though that draft and collection of movements leaves us in a stronger place, IMO.

* That wasn’t to pot Aish either because he’s still young, has returned in a good way this off-season and could still be a player. However from a list management POV (which this thread is all about) it was an ill advised move for us...
Agree massively with this. Truth be told I liked the trade at the time, and still hold some hope for Aish but as you say, in hindsight, it’s not looking positive. We won so massively with Howe/WHE/Treloar over that same period though that it’s definitely not the end of the world.
 

Pleasedontfail11

Club Legend
Oct 28, 2010
2,268
1,058
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
F1 racing
We just need to finish last. Simple.
We could get Lynch free agent (don't you match GC or we take him in the PSD and then get Petracca in the PSD after GC don't match. Then we just have to convince someone to pick up Blair for a million a year and we get the first and second pick. Oh and we get Clarkson as a coach after Bucks resigns.
 

Saintly Viewed

Premium Platinum
Aug 10, 2015
47,337
38,982
AFL Club
Collingwood
We could get Lynch free agent (don't you match GC or we take him in the PSD and then get Petracca in the PSD after GC don't match. Then we just have to convince someone to pick up Blair for a million a year and we get the first and second pick. Oh and we get Clarkson as a coach after Bucks resigns.
Lol Clarkson comes and he's past his prime....
 

pugsville

Club Legend
Nov 28, 2001
1,957
1,181
leningrad
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
collingwood
I

What I can’t help reflecting on though is what were we thinking with Aish? With the benefit of hindsight it just feels like we did it to one up Brisbane after the Beams saga and given how we’ve developed him since it just hasn’t worked. The most frustrating aspect is that we didn’t identify a role for him before making the move. You also have to wonder what we offered for him to make the call and come down, it wasn’t Mayne level craziness, but still we’d be in a much better position without it.*
Both drafts in 2015 and 2016 were fairly shallow.we had picks around that mark. I wasn't keen of getting Aish and he's now one of a bunch of NQR mids (Aish, Broomhead Wills, Phillips, Smith)

2016 pick 33 William Drew (a Knightmare fav) but we had picks at 30 (McLarty) and f/s at 35 (Cal Brown)
2015 pick 26 Kieran Collins (we had 32 Sier)
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
16,949
15,276
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Knightmare I think you win 2016, but 2017 Pies recruiting team won. Stephenson out and out freak. Fogarty needs to show more, but time will tell.
2016 looks a chance. Willem Drew/Liam Ryan v Callum Brown/Josh Daicos/Max Lynch. I feel like I have the two best of those.

2017 is interesting and another year I feel I drafted well, but Collingwood obviously did also. D.Fogarty/Ballard/Miers/Butts. I like all those guys. Stephenson/Murphy/T.Brown/Applyby/Mihocek though is a strong haul. Stephenson is that best guy from those lists and looks clearly ahead of Fogarty. Though Ballard for mine is a clear second and looks really nice for Gold Coast. Miers and D.Fogarty v Mihocek will be interesting. Can Murphy/T.Brown/Appleby push through? Or Butts on my side of the equation. TBD
 

sr36

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 20, 2009
14,455
18,966
Vietnam
AFL Club
Collingwood
2016 looks a chance. Willem Drew/Liam Ryan v Callum Brown/Josh Daicos/Max Lynch. I feel like I have the two best of those.

2017 is interesting and another year I feel I drafted well, but Collingwood obviously did also. D.Fogarty/Ballard/Miers/Butts. I like all those guys. Stephenson/Murphy/T.Brown/Applyby/Mihocek though is a strong haul. Stephenson is that best guy from those lists and looks clearly ahead of Fogarty. Though Ballard for mine is a clear second and looks really nice for Gold Coast. Miers and D.Fogarty v Mihocek will be interesting. Can Murphy/T.Brown/Appleby push through? Or Butts on my side of the equation. TBD
You're very good KM, but you're cheating a bit with Liam Ryan. The whole football world knew he was a freakshow, but also knew he wasn't willing to move to interstate, so he wasn't really an option for Dekka.
 

Chrispiesssss

Premiership Player
Aug 31, 2014
4,391
5,372
AFL Club
Collingwood
You're very good KM, but you're cheating a bit with Liam Ryan. The whole football world knew he was a freakshow, but also knew he wasn't willing to move to interstate, so he wasn't really an option for Dekka.
You pick him, and then trade him for multiple first round picks (aka Tim Kelly).
 

manicpie

All Australian
Jul 19, 2019
604
589
AFL Club
Collingwood
But you're assuming that he would have come over and knuckled down like he has at WCE. Him succeeding at home doesn't show that he would have succeeded interstate.
You could reverse that, anyway, if he nominates for the draft and say's he won't go interstate, which he never said publicly, he would be in breach of the rules, he was there for the taking the year before but we were too conservative in our thinking once again
 

Top Bottom