Opinion Knightsight v Hinesight v Hindsight 2015

[sirlothie]

It's all in the name of freeing up The Matrix I reckon

Whose the Matrix? Pendlebury? I think he will still get targetted but we are sure to have gun mids off the leash, Treloar might go untagged which would be handy.

 

[rand corp]

Thanks NM, really appreciate your work and always an interesting read

 

[MyManLynch]

Whose the Matrix? Pendlebury? I think he will still get targetted but we are sure to have gun mids off the leash, Treloar might go untagged which would be handy.

Yes Mr Anderson.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Like you Knightmare, I got very excited when our pick came along because there was still Bonner and Hibberd available.

They were clearly our best list fits as we lack so badly for ball carriers with good footskills.

But it's very hard to be critical of the selection of Sier as I simply don't know anything about him. I thought to myself for a moment that if we wanted a big bodied midfielder, then Mathieson was still also available...however the more I am reading on Sier it is obvious he has much more speed and ability to spread and his footskills look solid.

I'm also reading that a number of teams had tested him, so Hine must have been of the opinion that he wouldn't last until the next selection.

It doesn't strike me as a real 'needs' selection because we have De Goey and Crisp who are big bodied mids. But clearly 190cm mids are the future of the game and I've got no problem stocking up....especially because this guy seemingly has great pace and endurance.

It's a huge investment by Hine & co because Hibberd was the most logical selection at our pick.


I do agree 100% on your call with Wills. I never saw that much in him, but it's interesting to read the comment today that we have been trying to 'hide him'.

From what Hine said he was going purely for best available rather than a needs basis. This gives us an insight that they are quite happy with list balance as is and didn't see an obvious need that needed specific chasing. I have this feeling that Hine had Sier high on his list and was the logical best available to him. Hine has a tried & true rating system method.

It was curious he picked Wills and also Crocker. By the sound of it he was going to pass but rated Crocker too highly to leave him. Once again his rating system probably dictated these picks. He must have seen enough of Wills to think that he can provide an immediate impact. Will be interested to see how they utilise the rookie list and perhaps that will provide us with more clarity over this decision.

I guess it can be dangerous to second guess what other clubs may or may not do or may or may not know. I think this is Hine's greatest strength he sticks to what he knows and doesn't worry what others are doing. If he picks the players he believes to be the best at the time then he can be comfortable knowing it was the right pick and there is no danger of letting someone get missed that he wanted in order to sneak in a player he sees as an inferior player.

 

[4#Didak#4]

Always interesting read KM. I love the retrospectives. I was shocked to see I actually picked alright back in 2013. A point of difference was Sheed over Freeman/Acres. I am still a fan of Sheed.

This year I had a few that I thought may sneak to our pick. Tucker as an outside chance, but one of Partington, Redman or Lovell I thought were real chances. I really liked Partington, but alas the damn Eagles got my man again! By the time we got to our pick I was quite deflated as the guys I wanted were gone. So I was quite open minded to Sier as makes me feel like we snuck one through like we did with Beams all those years ago.

I can't say anyone past our pick really got me all that interested so I am happy to attach myself to Sier! However given I had no idea about this kid I will nominate Harley Balic as the one I would have picked.

Happy with Phillips at 58 and Crocker at 65 both nice enough players to get late. However, instead of Wills I would have picked Hartley (again). He adds good depth to our defenders and is capable of playing round 1.

 

[TradeDraft]

I think at Times Hine goes for Character over Talent. Agree Knightmare

 

[Knightmare]

Always interesting read KM. I love the retrospectives. I was shocked to see I actually picked alright back in 2013. A point of difference was Sheed over Freeman/Acres. I am still a fan of Sheed.

This year I had a few that I thought may sneak to our pick. Tucker as an outside chance, but one of Partington, Redman or Lovell I thought were real chances. I really liked Partington, but alas the damn Eagles got my man again! By the time we got to our pick I was quite deflated as the guys I wanted were gone. So I was quite open minded to Sier as makes me feel like we snuck one through like we did with Beams all those years ago.

I can't say anyone past our pick really got me all that interested so I am happy to attach myself to Sier! However given I had no idea about this kid I will nominate Harley Balic as the one I would have picked.

Happy with Phillips at 58 and Crocker at 65 both nice enough players to get late. However, instead of Wills I would have picked Hartley (again). He adds good depth to our defenders and is capable of playing round 1.

I think you're spot on with Hartley late. I completely forgot about him, I just looked at him as drafted and in looking back at the draft order I just didn't consider that he went after our final selection and was available. I'd be very comfortable taking Hartley with that final selection, even after Coughlan as a second key defender and in fact I'll edit the op now to reflect that (with my top 45 power rankings going into the draft earmarked as worthwhile national draft selections).

Sam Menegola as a tall, big bodied midfielder is a second player from my top 45 like Hartley I've edited into the op as a second further selection. I was evidently last night too focused on answering draft questions and not focused enough looking at the eventual draft positions of some of these guys.

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

Well done again on keeping us informed for another year. Reading your draft notes is one of my favourite things this time of year.

I have to say I really knew Sier was a left field selection when you said you hadn't 'sighted' him. This is the first time I've ever heard you say that!

In any case, I like the way you've adjusted your thinking re contested ball winning. I would not be surprised if Hopper (another St Pats boy!) goes on to have the season you describe and becomes the next Wines, Cripps, De Goey etc.

Also here's hoping Sier surprises us all and is more Josh Kennedy less Tom Bell.

 

[Bard]

Well done again on keeping us informed for another year. Reading your draft notes is one of my favourite things this time of year.

I have to say I really knew Sier was a left field selection when you said you hadn't 'sighted' him. This is the first time I've ever heard you say that!

In any case, I like the way you've adjusted your thinking re contested ball winning. I would not be surprised if Hopper (another St Pats boy!) goes on to have the season you describe and becomes the next Wines, Cripps, De Goey etc.

Also here's hoping Sier surprises us all and is more Josh Kennedy less Tom Bell.

I wouldn't mind Tom Bell... if his fitness level & kicking wasn't complete shite. But even if he's somewhere inbetween JPK and Bell we've done very well

 

[Knightmare]

Well done again on keeping us informed for another year. Reading your draft notes is one of my favourite things this time of year.

I have to say I really knew Sier was a left field selection when you said you hadn't 'sighted' him. This is the first time I've ever heard you say that!

In any case, I like the way you've adjusted your thinking re contested ball winning. I would not be surprised if Hopper (another St Pats boy!) goes on to have the season you describe and becomes the next Wines, Cripps, De Goey etc.

Also here's hoping Sier surprises us all and is more Josh Kennedy less Tom Bell.

When I see Hopper I think Fyfe level dominance at stoppages and with his contested ball winning without the marking ability. His contested possession numbers are off the charts along with his stoppage work.

I'm only one guy and if guys don't play u18 championships, don't play any TAC Cup footy (or at least games I've been to) or have footage of their games online (prior to the draft) it's hard to really have anything to day beyond just having a vague understanding based on what limited I've heard from others.

Every year you have to learn and adjust and the more I study drafts over the years contested ball winning consistently comes back as that clear area of the game that so consistently converts to AFL relevance and even AFL dominance. And the more you learn, the more you need to tweak your thinking to maximise the accuracy of what you do and that's what I'll continue to do ongoing.

It's possible the Collingwood recruiters may be taking that theory up a further notch and putting a greater weighting on height and size in these freak contested ball winners. I'll be studying the success or otherwise of this strategy. It's clear with the sub 180cm contested ball winners it's not a high % approach, so using backward logic from that it makes sense that you'd look for that height and size.
My concern within this years theory is the relative lack of performance by Sier and Wills as two guys who just haven't found that much of the footy in the TAC Cup and VFL respectively. And guys who don't have that production at the lower levels don't tend to suddenly get that production at the next level (with some exception to late bloomers which gives Sier some chance) but it's risky even with the attributes in combination with the height and size both guys have. Fingers crossed the risk pays off.

 

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't mind Tom Bell... if his fitness level & kicking wasn't complete shite. But even if he's somewhere inbetween JPK and Bell we've done very well

Bell actually has excellent endurance, that and his contested ball winning ability and size are what make him good. As for his kicking, he has a long but unreliable kick and some decision making issues.

 

[TradeDraft]

Knightmare our of the Late Picks Phillips,Wills and Crocker. Who has the Best Chance to make a Impact at AFL Level and Why and how you rate the other 2?

 

[wednesdaywarrior]

When I see Hopper I think Fyfe level dominance at stoppages and with his contested ball winning without the marking ability. His contested possession numbers are off the charts along with his stoppage work.

I'm only one guy and if guys don't play u18 championships, don't play any TAC Cup footy (or at least games I've been to) or have footage of their games online (prior to the draft) it's hard to really have anything to day beyond just having a vague understanding based on what limited I've heard from others.

Every year you have to learn and adjust and the more I study drafts over the years contested ball winning consistently comes back as that clear area of the game that so consistently converts to AFL relevance and even AFL dominance. And the more you learn, the more you need to tweak your thinking to maximise the accuracy of what you do and that's what I'll continue to do ongoing.

It's possible the Collingwood recruiters may be taking that theory up a further notch and putting a greater weighting on height and size in these freak contested ball winners. I'll be studying the success or otherwise of this strategy. It's clear with the sub 180cm contested ball winners it's not a high % approach, so using backward logic from that it makes sense that you'd look for that height and size.
My concern within this years theory is the relative lack of performance by Sier and Wills as two guys who just haven't found that much of the footy in the TAC Cup and VFL respectively. And guys who don't have that production at the lower levels don't tend to suddenly get that production at the next level (with some exception to late bloomers which gives Sier some chance) but it's risky even with the attributes in combination with the height and size both guys have. Fingers crossed the risk pays off.

I agree with your assessment ie I think the Pies are really going after those big midfield types as the way of the future. They seem to also have an eye toward guys that are close to being AFL ready perhaps with the thinking that our list is set to peak in the relatively near future.

It also seems quite possible that our recruiters feel they 'missed the boat' with Bontempelli and Cripps. Though there's no point re hashing the debate on whether the dogs responded to our interest in Bont or otherwise. Certainly if Sier did turn into a serviceable mid then we have some impressive size through the middle with Crisp and De Goey as well as Pendles.

I guess it's important to remember that the premier ball winning midfield for 3 years now has not been a monstrous outfit - neither Hodge nor Mitchell being huge but rather tough and skilful. Which is why you don't want to overdo it and in this respect I really like the look of Phillips as another option. Seems to have terrific skill and match instincts. I think both Hine and yourself can claim to have nailed that pick!

 

[Bard]

Bell actually has excellent endurance, that and his contested ball winning ability and size are what make him good. As for his kicking, he has a long but unreliable kick and some decision making issues.

Idk always thought his endurance is what stopped him being a permanent midfielder
But yeah his contested ball winning ability is fantastic, don't get me wrong I think he's a pretty good player but at the same time far from a complete package.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare our of the Late Picks Phillips,Wills and Crocker. Who has the Best Chance to make a Impact at AFL Level and Why and how you rate the other 2?

Phillips for me.

Why? Best performed player of the three (look at his numbers) http://www.foxsportspulse.com/team_...nt=1-118-10456-339768-20320243&ocompID=339768

Phillips had 23 goals from 14 games and found plenty of it. In his one VFL game (v Collingwood August 29 for those who want to revisit it via the Collingwood website) he featured in the bests. In addition to having "the numbers" Phillips has the skills by hand and foot, decision making ability and vision. He has the pace, agility and an excellent sidestep on him. Big improver from last year. Versatility to play forward, midfield (outside or inside) or back. Isn't allergic to winning the contested ball. So he has the game that translates given the mix of attributes and the performance.

Idk always thought his endurance is what stopped him being a permanent midfielder
But yeah his contested ball winning ability is fantastic, don't get me wrong I think he's a pretty good player but at the same time far from a complete package.

With Bell in 2011 he managed a 15.2 beep and his agility also is right up there with an excellent 8.03. And that's incredible for a guy with an 98kg frame. In saying that though I know where you're coming from as Bell isn't someone who looks overly quick or explosive on matchday. He just covers the ground really well more generally.

 

[TradeDraft]

Phillips for me.

Why? Best performed player of the three (look at his numbers) http://www.foxsportspulse.com/team_...nt=1-118-10456-339768-20320243&ocompID=339768

Phillips had 23 goals from 14 games and found plenty of it. In his one VFL game (v Collingwood August 29 for those who want to revisit it via the Collingwood website) he featured in the bests. In addition to having "the numbers" Phillips has the skills by hand and foot, decision making ability and vision. He has the pace, agility and an excellent sidestep on him. Big improver from last year. Versatility to play forward, midfield (outside or inside) or back. Isn't allergic to winning the contested ball. So he has the game that translates given the mix of attributes and the performance.
.

Do you feel Phillips was bit of a Steal?

Brett Anderson on SEN said we where very keen on him at Pick 32 IF Siers was gone

 

[Heritier 09]

Got a feeling about wills. He obviously showed the recruiters something and was then tucked away. Great size, and looked explosive in the video. Averaged around 20 possies, not too shabby production I would have thought for a late bloomer.

KM I know you rate broomhead, and he never really stacks up huge numbers. (I like him too by the way) Can you explain what you mean by production if it isn't possies?

We went in thinking we'd take 3 blokes, and if Crocker got taken at 66 I reckon we would have. Meaning we like wills, and I'm thinking he's some chance to make it.

 

[Kirby]

^ Broomhead racks up some big numbers in the VFL, just hasn't in the AFL yet.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you feel Phillips was bit of a Steal?

Brett Anderson on SEN said we where very keen on him at Pick 32 IF Siers was gone

Phillips at 32 is a very interesting comment and a big endorsement.

Phillips was the highest rated player on my draft board of the guys who weren't consensus draftees.

Phillips may well prove to be a steal (if he makes it). Certainly a good value prospect to my eyes if you ask me today as my definite best available.

Got a feeling about wills. He obviously showed the recruiters something and was then tucked away. Great size, and looked explosive in the video. Averaged around 20 possies, not too shabby production I would have thought for a late bloomer.

KM I know you rate broomhead, and he never really stacks up huge numbers. (I like him too by the way) Can you explain what you mean by production if it isn't possies?

We went in thinking we'd take 3 blokes, and if Crocker got taken at 66 I reckon we would have. Meaning we like wills, and I'm thinking he's some chance to make it.

Production I refer to as everything stat - disposals, goals, marks, tackles etc.

I don't look at 20 disposals per game and only the one goal from those games for an onballer as particularly strong production. What matters to me is how strongly he improves next year which will be what will justify his selection.

I'm not going to count Wills out though. Good height and size. Like Siers has some attributes so I'm open to seeing more without necessarily feeling a great deal of enthusiasm until he proves to me I should through performance.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

KM as always great reading.
Of our picks in the draft,
Who do you think will play senior footy next year? If any?
Assuming standard injury run.

I may have mssed it, sorry, who do you like for our rookies tomorrow
Assuming keefe thomas our 2 last picks

 

[TradeDraft]

Knightmare I see you are not a big as Fan of Crocker as other.

Snoop Dog is a Big Fan of others had Him in the 30-50 Range. We got him at 65.

So why you don't think he is a Steal?

 

[Apex36]

Phillips at 32 is a very interesting comment and a big endorsement.

Phillips was the highest rated player on my draft board of the guys who weren't consensus draftees.

Phillips may well prove to be a steal (if he makes it). Certainly a good value prospect to my eyes if you ask me today as my definite best available.



Production I refer to as everything stat - disposals, goals, marks, tackles etc.

I don't look at 20 disposals per game and only the one goal from those games for an onballer as particularly strong production. What matters to me is how strongly he improves next year which will be what will justify his selection.

I'm not going to count Wills out though. Good height and size. Like Siers has some attributes so I'm open to seeing more without necessarily feeling a great deal of enthusiasm until he proves to me I should through performance.

In Hines draft review he said we tried to hide Wills away a bit, which I found interesting. Could be a reason he didn't play more senior VFL games this year (aside from injury of course).

 

[AmellyPies]

^ Broomhead racks up some big numbers in the VFL, just hasn't in the AFL yet.

Great logic, Been injured for majority of his time here.

 

[Knightmare]

KM as always great reading.
Of our picks in the draft,
Who do you think will play senior footy next year? If any?
Assuming standard injury run.

I may have mssed it, sorry, who do you like for our rookies tomorrow
Assuming keefe thomas our 2 last picks

If I had to pick a guy who plays next year. I'll go with Phillips as the more likely. Our midfield is loaded so it's going to be hard for Sier and Wills even if they develop out of their minds. Crocker as a forward maybe if Fasolo/Broomhead and others aren't performing.

But Phillips is the most advanced and as more of an outside player with high level production. He offers the most immediate but also most best 22 compatible game.

Given we have two live rookie picks I would personally of those available take Nick Dodge and Daniel Capiron as per page one. Dodge as a small forward who can provide heavy scoreboard impact and Capiron as a backman with a balanced game (good mix of offense and defence).

In saying that who do we pick? I can see us looking at one of Ash Close or Callum Moore as key forwards. With the other pick we probably look at a wing/half back with the view to add extra pace and footskills and that could be any number of players. Otherwise Ben Moloney and Jake Lovett are two Cal Twomey has linked to us. Kade Answerth as another Oakleigh player who had a big finals series and a strong overage season wouldn't shock me although we don't need more inside players.

Knightmare I see you are not a big as Fan of Crocker as other.

Snoop Dog is a Big Fan of others had Him in the 30-50 Range. We got him at 65.

So why you don't think he is a Steal?

Crocker I'm ok with and see value in without being overly excited. He was expected to go earlier and early season was looked at as a late 1st - 2nd round selection but I never quite saw it that way.

Able but not a fantastic contested ball winner so he won't be a midfielder at AFL level. Ok leaper but only an average athlete. While he has a classy feel his execution by foot is below average. Not a natural crumber. Exceptional mark overhead and has strong, sticky hands. And he is a worker from reports which is what you want to hear. And he was arguably Oakleigh's best player this season (not that that is saying much as they had the most even team I've seen 1-22 with such an evenly spread load).

Late draft is about where I'd be willing to pick Crocker. So my view is that Crocker is a solid selection, but it's not a selection that makes me excited as the Phillips choice did by comparison.

 

[TradeDraft]

In Hines draft review he said we tried to hide Wills away a bit, which I found interesting. Could be a reason he didn't play more senior VFL games this year (aside from injury of course).

I say there is a Chance that we did not play Wills on Purpose and I doubt you be out that long with a Concussion and Still get Drafted