evo said:
A few times during the lead up to the election I posted the bookies odds.It was mainly in response to a few people who thought the ALP could win or that it was going to be a close result.From a long way out the Coalition was always a fairly short priced favourite.After following the odds of various elections over recent years, I've found that they never get it wrong.
Incidently ......the latest U.S election odds on Betfair for those that think Kerry has a good chance....
Odds for $1.00
Republicans 1.70
Democrats 2.45
there ********ing good odds for the republicans imo ...
here is a good article outlining how kerry's opinion polls have slumped and a bit about the US electorate.
my prediction is republican win!
US opinion polls show Bush in the lead PRINT FRIENDLY EMAIL STORY
AM - Monday, 18 October , 2004 08:20:00
Reporter: Leigh SalesTONY EASTLEY:
three new polls released today all have President Bush ahead in the race for the White House.
North America Correspondent Leigh Sales reports.
LEIGH SALES: In the past two weeks, John Kerry trounced President Bush in two debates, and narrowly won in a third, yet he's still trailing in the polls.
Here's why.
VOX POP 1: John Kerry's performance again, it did well, but just the same things over and over.
LEIGH SALES: Is there anything he could do from this point onwards to change your mind?
VOX POP 1: No, definitely not.
VOX POP 2: They did well, both of them. I'm pretty independent, so I wouldn't want to guess which one won.
LEIGH SALES: Did it influence how you're going to vote at all?
VOX POP 2: No, no it did not.
LEIGH SALES: Less than five per cent of Americans are undecided about who to vote for. The rest of the population is strongly and firmly divided. So no matter how well Kerry did in the debates, he was never going to budge many voters.
Three polls out today support that. The surveys, by Newsweek, the Washington Post and Time Magazine, all have Kerry trailing the President anywhere from two to six points. Taking into account error margins, that still makes it a tight race.
The Kerry campaign's chief strategist, Bob Shrum, is focusing on a breakdown of the polls, rather than the overall voter intentions.
BOB SHRUM: Inside these polls, all of them, there are numbers that should be very troublesome to the President. For example, in the Newsweek poll, 47 per cent of people give him a job approval rating… below 50 per cent in job approval – very hard to get re-elected.
55 per cent say the country is on the wrong track, so I think Bush has got some big problems and I think the country is asking a big question – who can defend America and fight for the middle class? The answer to that question, I think, is going to be John Kerry.
LEIGH SALES: The Bush-Cheney campaign manager, Ken Mehlman, prefers a straighter reading.
KEN MEHLMAN: But I think those polls reflect where most things are. If you look at most of the public polls, we lead by anywhere from 2 to 6 points.
I think people looked at those debates and they saw some important things – they saw that John Kerry is in fact the Masachusetts liberal who will increase taxes and increase government involvement in health care.
They worry about the notion of a global test, they disagree with his vision of the war on terror, dealing with it like a nuisance.
LEIGH SALES: Several of the major newspapers in the United States have begun endorsing candidates in the election.
In its editorial today, the New York Times demolishes the Bush Presidency, describing it as "heartbreaking" and a "disaster".
It reads: "With the grieving country united behind him, Mr. Bush had an unparalleled opportunity to ask for almost any shared sacrifice. The only limit was his imagination.
He asked for another tax cut and the war against Iraq.
"The President's refusal to drop his tax-cutting agenda when the nation was gearing up for war is perhaps the most shocking example of his inability to change his priorities in the face of drastically altered circumstances."
Another important publication, the Chicago Tribune, has gone for President Bush, saying he has a broader vision for America's security than his Democrat opponent.
This is Leigh Sales in Washington for AM.