Ladder after Round 22

[GOALden Hawk]

Ok, so now every team has played each other once, and there is 7 weeks to go. I've decided to use a couple of methods to show what MIGHT happen to the ladder by Round 22.

Now I'm just using simple arguments for these 2 scenarios, so don't all jump down my throat - I'm not trying to prove anything, and these ladders obviously have flaws as they don't allow for all the factors. But still, it's an interesting guide as to what MAY happen over the next 2 months.

This first ladder has been compiled ASSUMING that each team will beat the same opponents it did when they clashed from Rounds 1-7. If teams have equal amounts of wins I've given the team with the higher percentage currently a higher ranking.

1. Essendon 76
2. Hawthorn 68
3. Port 64
4. Brisbane 56
5. Richmond 56
6. Carlton 52
7. Collingwood 44
8. Sydney 44
9. Adelaide 44
10. Bulldogs 44
11. Kangaroos 40
12. Melbourne 40
13. Geelong 36
14. St. Kilda 20
15. West Coast 20
16. Fremantle 0


The 2nd ladder has been compiled ASSUMING that each team on the ladder will beat anyone currently lower on the ladder than them and will lose to anyone higher on the ladder than them. Again, pretty simplistic but gives a bit of a guide as to how tough a run home each team has.

1. Essendon 80
2. Hawthorn 68
3. Port 64
4. Brisbane 64
5. Carlton 56
6. Richmond 56
7. Sydney 52
8. Collingwood 44
9. Kangaroos 40
10. Adelaide 40
11. Bulldogs 40
12. Geelong 40
13. Melbourne 28
14. St. Kilda 16
15. West Coast 16
16. Fremantle 0

Obviously this ladder favours teams who are higher at the moment - the key games will be those where Collingwood, Sydney, North, Adelaide and the Bulldogs play each other.

 

[red+black]

geez, carlton at 5th or 6th - i'd like to see that

 

[GOALden Hawk]

Interesting to note both ladders have Carlton v Collingwood in the 1st week of the finals!

Carlton have a tough run home, still have to play Essendon, Hawthorn and Collingwood amongst others - the losses to Sydney and Adelaide and Melbourne at Princes Park may come back to haunt them.

 

[Pessimistic]

Just shows how tight Hawthorn's hold on 2nd place was. They need to win all their remaining games (it will be tough) to get in front of Brissy and Port.

If they do manage to shark into the top 4 at the end, Essendon or Brisbane in brisbane is a horrible choice - still, there's no percentage in finals !

 

[blues^rock]

gee, carlton at 5th or 6th, the way we're playing it looks like it could happen but somehow i don't think so, we seem to play well against the teams that matter, with a good game plan (and maybe a few less injuries) we could end up in teh top 4 easily, of ocurse not with the 2 ways you've decided teh ladder... i just hope we won't end up 5th or 6th!

 

[Darky]

Essendon 80 (will win 7/7)
Brisbane 64 (6)
Carlton 60 (6)
Hawthorn 60 (5)
Port Adel. 52 (3)
Richmond 52 (4)
Kangaroos 52 (5)
Sydney 48 (4)
--------------------------
Adelaide 48 (4)
Collingwood 40 (2)
Bulldogs 40 (2)
Geelong 36 (2)
Melbourne 36 (3)
West Coast 24 (3)
St.Kilda 12 (0)
Fremantle 0 (0)

 

[Pessimistic]

Lets just say that Essendon should win top spot, 3 games ahead and only seven to go.

If brisbane come second the choice between a beating by essendon or a beating by brisbane at home is not so attractive

As a victorian team you might as well come 5th or 6th if you can't make 2nd.


come ON hawks !

 

[BIG POPPA PUMP]

They will finish like this...

Essendon
Brisbane
Carlton
Port Adel.
Hawthorn
Richmond
Sydney
Melbourne
--------------------------
Adelaide
Collingwood
Kangaroos
Bulldogs
Geelong
West Coast
St.Kilda
Fremantle

 

[IlGino]

Originally posted by Pessimistic
Just shows how tight Hawthorn's hold on 2nd place was. They need to win all their remaining games (it will be tough) to get in front of Brissy and Port.

If they do manage to shark into the top 4 at the end, Essendon or Brisbane in brisbane is a horrible choice - still, there's no percentage in finals !

I have wondered for a while. As a hawks fan I think they are a better chance coming 5th than 4th. I think most sides would rather a home final win first up (even with the risk of eliminiation) as opposed to getting thrashed by the bombers and then slumping...although if you can push them like the cats did you would be happy

 

[TigerTank]

While I sincerely hope you are right, on current form Richmond are in dreadful strife.

The last two games have been nothing less than terrible.

 

[Stucey]

I think that I might put some money on Richmond finishing 9th.

Probably on percentage only, wouldn't that be sad for the Tigers'

Ladder

Essendon
Brisbane
Carlton
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Kangaroos
Sydney
-----------------
Richmond
Collingwood
Adelaide
Geelong
Melbourne
West Coast
St Kilda
Fremantle



Well, that's what I think anyway

 

[Asgardian]

Darky,

I see you still have that PORT phobia mate

 

[Darky]

Originally posted by Asgardian
Darky,

I see you still have that PORT phobia mate

Ease up, old chum!

I didn't just allocate a number of wins to each side without basis... it was done analysing the fixture, game by game. I no longer have the exact record of my workings out, but of Port's remaining games, I judged them like this :

Brisbane (Gabba) - Brisbane win
Essendon (FP) - Essendon win
Adelaide (FP) - Adelaide win
St.Kilda (CS) - Port Adelaide win
Geelong (FP) - Port Adelaide win
Bulldogs (CS) - Bulldogs win
West Coast (FP) - Port Adelaide win

Brisbane and Essendon would go into their games as firm favourites.
Games against St.Kilda, Geelong and West Coast should be good wins for Port.

Games against Adelaide and Western Bulldogs would be 50-50. I think the Bulldogs will beat Port at Colonial. Port have never won at Colonial, and I don't think either side is playing the sort of footy at the moment that will get them very far if they make the finals (although this can obviously improve). Given that form is hard to pick here, I picked the Bulldogs with little confidence, but I would have had no more confidence picking Port either.

It might be a little harder for me to justify picking Adelaide to beat Port, but why should I have to? I think Adelaide will win, but it won't particularly concern me if Port get up. All it is, is a prediction - if it ends up being wrong, then so be it.

 

[Port01]

Ahhh, but Darky, if the games follow your predictions then by the time the Bulldogs game comes around, Port will have won at Colonial

 

[Darky]

Originally posted by Port01
Ahhh, but Darky, if the games follow your predictions then by the time the Bulldogs game comes around, Port will have won at Colonial

Against St.Kilda shouldn't count.

Well spotted Port01, but once again that's a hypothesis. I can't say Port have won that game when it hasn't been played yet, although yes it is likely that they will win that game.