Ladder conference farce

Remove this Banner Ad

I kind of want results next week to make the Conference system an even bigger farce:
- Carlton (B1, 3-3) to lose to the Bulldogs (A5, 2-4)
- Geelong (B2, 3-3) to lose to the Giants (B4, 1-5)
- Brisbane (B3, 2-4) to lose to Collingwood (B5, 0-6)
- Adelaide (A1, 5-1) to lose to Melbourne (A4, 4-2)
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Even if Melbourne lose to Adelaide, the 4th placed team in Conference A will likely finish with the same points and a better percentage than the 1st placed team in Conference B. They will also likely finish a full game and percentage clear of the 2nd best team in Conference B.

If Melbourne beat Adelaide, the 4th placed team in Conference A will finish a game and a large percentage clear of the 1st place team in Conference B.

There have been 13 cross-conference games and Conference B has only won 1 of those games.

To say this years' conferences have been terrible would be putting it nicely.
 
The conferences were picked as per the finals conference system in the VFL 1898-1900, which Nicole Livingstone proudly announced 6 months ago.

Conference A were teams 1-3-5-7 from 2018, while Conference B were teams 2-4-6-8 (should have been 1-4-5-8 and 2-3-6-7).

I presume they then flipped a coin to decide where North and Geelong went.

Based on 2018 results and the composition of the conferences, Conference A started 25% stronger. Everyone knew that North would be strong, so the imbalance was compounded by adding an obviously strong team to an already stronger conference. And we ended up with the 4 strongest teams in Conference A, as well as the Western Bulldogs, 2018 premiers, who are the only team that was not scheduled to play Collingwood (0-6) and GWS (1-5).
 
It is now guaranteed that at least one team in Conference B will play finals despite having fewer wins than losses. If Bulldogs beat Carlton, then both finallists from Conference B will have won fewer games than they lost.

If Brisbane lose to Collingwood, Geelong will make the finals despite having a percentage of 65.5%. Their opponents have been, on average, more than 50% better than them.

Meanwhile it's entirely within the realms of possibility that there will be two teams in Conference A with 5-2 records and percentages more than double that of Geelong missing out.
 
If the Bulldogs beat Carlton, you will have:
- Bulldogs finish last in Conference A
- Carlton most likely top Conference B
- both teams finish 3-4
- Bulldogs with possibly a better %
- Carlton make finals and possibly host a final
 
The dogs didn't even get to play gws or pies. Carlton didn't play freo or dees. There's another comparison based on draw.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Adelaide - won last 5, just defeated Melbourne 68-8 AWAY
will most likely play
Brisbane - lost 4 of last 5, in Round 3 lost to Melbourne 21-60 AT HOME!

and Adelaide's percentage is currently more than 3 times that of Brisbane (212.9% to 69.9%).

If somehow Brisbane loses, Adelaide will play Geelong who averages a whopping 22 points per game.
 
Tiger Toffee said:
With crossover games they did not need to have conference's, just a straight 1 to 10 ladder and then the 4 best teams play in the finals. As it looks and if the dogs beat the blues by about 33 pts then it will be 1 v 7 and 2 v 6 instead of 1 v 4 and 2 v 3.
Click to expand...
With a single ladder, the prelims next week would be Adelaide v Melbourne and Fremantle v North... Suddenly not the most appetising set of finals, if you watched the R7 Saturday games.

To re-answer an earlier question: The one benefit of this year's system, which I didn't think about until now, is that it increases the chance of teams getting to play each other who otherwise wouldn't have (ie Crows v Lions, Blues v Dockers).

Might end up stumbling into something good here, if Brisbane get their act together.
 
SunGirl89 said:
Adelaide - won last 5, just defeated Melbourne 68-8 AWAY
will most likely play
Brisbane - lost 4 of last 5, in Round 3 lost to Melbourne 21-60 AT HOME!

and Adelaide's percentage is currently more than 3 times that of Brisbane (212.9% to 69.9%).

If somehow Brisbane loses, Adelaide will play Geelong who averages a whopping 22 points per game.
Click to expand...

Assuming the Crows don't get ahead of themselves, the first final could get really messy.
 
Teen Wolf said:
With a single ladder, the prelims next week would be Adelaide v Melbourne and Fremantle v North... Suddenly not the most appetising set of finals, if you watched the R7 Saturday games.

To re-answer an earlier question: The one benefit of this year's system, which I didn't think about until now, is that it increases the chance of teams getting to play each other who otherwise wouldn't have (ie Crows v Lions, Blues v Dockers).

Might end up stumbling into something good here, if Brisbane get their act together.
Click to expand...
Based on their season records, I doubt the Lions and Blues are going to be more competitive than the Demons and Kangas. It's also ridiculous that Freo, a 6-1 team have to travel to play Carlton, a 3-4 team.
 
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
Based on their season records, I doubt the Lions and Blues are going to be more competitive than the Demons and Kangas.
Click to expand...
Except we have more information available than just raw win-loss numbers. Carlton led Adelaide by 3 goals midway into the third quarter, remember? Their best football is as good as anybody's. Brisbane also put up a better fight in Perth this year than North Melbourne. I don't think it's as clear cut as a lot of people think, especially since form is always fluctuating.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
It's also ridiculous that Freo, a 6-1 team have to travel to play Carlton, a 3-4 team
Click to expand...
A predictable talking point, but why? Because Carlton didn't "earn" it, some would say. Did Melbourne and Fremantle earn home ground advantage yesterday for such crucial matches, and did it sway the ultimate outcome of either? Not even a little bit, in my opinion.
 
Teen Wolf said:
Except we have more information available than just raw win-loss numbers. Carlton led Adelaide by 3 goals midway into the third quarter, remember? Their best football is as good as anybody's. Brisbane also put up a better fight in Perth this year than North Melbourne. I don't think it's as clear cut as a lot of people think, especially since form is always fluctuating.
Click to expand...
It does work out weird, North beat Carlton and we robbed of redeeming it with another clash in finals. conferences been incredibly lopsided in how it has ended.
 
Teen Wolf said:
Except we have more information available than just raw win-loss numbers. Carlton led Adelaide by 3 goals midway into the third quarter, remember? Their best football is as good as anybody's. Brisbane also put up a better fight in Perth this year than North Melbourne. I don't think it's as clear cut as a lot of people think, especially since form is always fluctuating.

[...]

A predictable talking point, but why? Because Carlton didn't "earn" it, some would say. Did Melbourne and Fremantle earn home ground advantage yesterday for such crucial matches, and did it sway the ultimate outcome of either? Not even a little bit, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

You're right to say we shouldn't be writing off the Conference B finalists so early, but I can't see how the equivalent of 1st v 6th/7th is remotely more appealing than 1st v 4th (yes, even with 1st having demolished 4th already this week without the added home advantage). Uneven allocation of home games can rightly be questioned, but H&A isn't about "earning" the right to host certain teams, it's about fair allocation of hosting rights and travel (or at least, ought to be) - whereas the right to host a final very much is about who deserves it, which on any reasonable measure Carlton don't (irrespective of how advantageous or otherwise it is).
 
hcd199 said:
You're right to say we shouldn't be writing off the Conference B finalists so early, but I can't see how the equivalent of 1st v 6th/7th is remotely more appealing than 1st v 4th (yes, even with 1st having demolished 4th already this week without the added home advantage).
Click to expand...
We don't really know who the 4th best team is though, ladder position should be viewed with a lot of skepticism in such a short season.

hcd199 said:
Uneven allocation of home games can rightly be questioned, but H&A isn't about "earning" the right to host certain teams, it's about fair allocation of hosting rights and travel (or at least, ought to be) - whereas the right to host a final very much is about who deserves it, which on any reasonable measure Carlton don't (irrespective of how advantageous or otherwise it is).
Click to expand...
The alternative of automatically giving home ground advantage to 2nd-placed finishers with more wins is just as likely to reward so-called undeserving teams, considering the factor of unequal fixtures etc.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Connar
AFLW AFLW Season 8 Ladder Predictions 2023
Replies
20
Views
4K
The Victorian
The Victorian

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top