Prediction Ladder Prediction: 2022 Home and Away Season

Remove this Banner Ad

Minga

Club Legend
Mar 23, 2021
1,689
9,239
AFL Club
St Kilda
Since trade season is over, thought I’d start thinking about ladder predictions for 2022. AKA, I’m bored. Hopefully this can be a time capsule I can look back on and laugh at when I’m horribly wrong come September next year. Feel free to post yours also - whether it be silly or serious, biased or painfully objective 😉.

Minga’s 2022 AFL Home and Away season ladder prediction:
  1. Brisbane
  2. Western Bulldogs
  3. Melbourne
  4. Port Adelaide
  5. GWS
  6. St Kilda
  7. Sydney
  8. Carlton
  9. Geelong
  10. Richmond
  11. Essendon
  12. Gold Coast
  13. Fremantle
  14. West Coast
  15. Collingwood
  16. Adelaide
  17. North Melbourne
  18. Hawthorn
Grand Final: Brisbane v. Bulldogs 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

Log in to remove this ad.

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Sydney
4. GWS
5. Port
6. Doggies
7. St Kilda
8. Fremantle
9. Geelong
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. West Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. Gold Coast
16. North
17. Hawks
18. Collingwood


I reckon we make finals with an easier draw, I still am not convinced by the dons, with a harder draw I can't see their young side make finals again. Doggies will slip with no key forward with Bruce out for the year. Geelong and West Coast are too old and too slow. I rate Sydney, I love how they play the game and think at home they'll be too strong, away form will be iffey but they'll finish top 4. It's really hard to place where Richmond and Carlton will finish. Ive chucked GC in the bottom 4 as they just haven't improved in the off season.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Always love doing these and looking back post-season at how horrifically wrong I get it.

-Bulldogs
-Melbourne
-Brisbane
-Port Adelaide
-Geelong
-Sydney
-GWS
-St Kilda

-Essendon
-Carlton
-Fremantle
-Richmond
-West Coast
-North Melbourne
-Gold Coast
-Adelaide
-Hawthorn
-Collingwood

Hahah yeah last year I think the only one I got right was North in last place. Had saints higher then Dogs and Demons lmao.
 
Saints 10th to 8th
 
Saints 1st and premiers. Max King Coleman, Steele Brownlow, Sharman Norm Smith
 
Anywhere from 5th to 10th. It all depends on injuries to our ring ins, Marshall staying on the park, growth from our young guys, and blokes like Coffield and Clark stepping up.


I think with the ladder you need to group sides with variables changing the ladder position but sides staying in their pool unless they have a massive turn around like Melbourne or Richmond did.

I'd say it's a pretty open ladder next year. To me the pools are....

Top pool, playing for top 4 or a premiership.....
Melbourne- could hang-over but have a list that is capable of a few in a row
Bulldogs- Should be top 4 again, need a few pieces but have the talent to stay top 4 for a few years, luck could win them one.
Brisbane- still well and truely in the window.
Port- Not quite as good as their mates in this pool but a bit of luck and development and who knows.


Next tier down of teams playing for spots from 3rd to 8th....
Giants- list is too good to not bounce back.
Geelong- last chance saloon, look like they have a system that wins home and away games. Struggle to get loose in finals. Could drop.
Richmond- Still have the core but look a bit beaten up. Could possible shark a finals campaign but time not on their side.

The next tier, sides that are playing for a spot in the 8
St Kilda- need a fit list and luck but no reason we can't otherwise
Carlton- have a better list than others around their level.
Essendon- youthful energy and a solid core, look a bit like the 2020 Saints. Could drop or rise.
Sydney- See Essendon.
Fremantle- Have good youth, bad luck with injury but no reason they can't jump up.
West Coast- solid core, battered older brigade but could jump back with luck.
Collingwood- still a good core of players but look mentally damaged after off field ructions.

Next tier down...
Gold Coast- look like a side that could do a rapid improvement at some stage, amazing list of kids but have been a serial disappointment. Need Witts.
Adelaide- a better list than a bottom 4 side.

Playing for pick one....
Hawks- look messy and hard to see the near future as too bright.
North Melbourne- look a way off but doing it right.


Good luck, development and smarts could get a few jump up into the next group and there is no reason why we can't have that happen for us but all those other sides around us are in the same boat. Fixture, injury and game plans will sort the wheat from the chaff. I'm cautiously optimistic.
 
I actually did ok with my 2021 prediction, though I clearly overrated us. I'll probably do the same this year.

2022 AFL End of season ladder

Melbourne
Brisbane
Sydney
St Kilda
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
GWS

Geelong
Carlton
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
West Coast
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Gold Coast

Sydney or Brisbane beat Melbourne in the GF
Brownlow, C Oliver.
Dew first coach out, possibly Hinkley and Hardwick too. In my predo, Saints play prelim finals and Ratts survives.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

I actually did ok with my 2021 prediction, though I clearly overrated us. I'll probably do the same this year.

2022 AFL End of season ladder

Melbourne
Brisbane
Sydney
St Kilda
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
GWS

Geelong
Carlton
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
West Coast
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Gold Coast

Sydney or Brisbane beat Melbourne in the GF
Brownlow, C Oliver.
Dew first coach out, possibly Hinkley and Hardwick too. In my predo, Saints play prelim finals and Ratts survives.
You were correct in saying overrated , hope your right , i just cant see it though
 
I actually did ok with my 2021 prediction, though I clearly overrated us. I'll probably do the same this year.

2022 AFL End of season ladder

Melbourne
Brisbane
Sydney
St Kilda
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
GWS

Geelong
Carlton
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
West Coast
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Gold Coast

Sydney or Brisbane beat Melbourne in the GF
Brownlow, C Oliver.
Dew first coach out, possibly Hinkley and Hardwick too. In my predo, Saints play prelim finals and Ratts survives.

Gold Coast finishing dead last could do wonders for getting Bing across the line. Unless the AFL decide to tamper some more 🤣
 
My predictions might need a bit of explanation. It's going to be long and not particularly informative so unless you're starved of reading material, I'd give it a miss. Here goes...

I think it's going to be a pretty tight competition next season. There won't be many standout teams due to the stagnation of the lists and for the last 5 years, it's been the tendance for any team to be capable of beating any team - I don't see any reason why that won't continue.

Having said that, there will be a few teams near the bottom who are deep into their rebuilds. It will be surprising if Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne or Gold Coast get out of the bottom, though I can't say for sure who will be picking up the spoon. Collingwood have Leppitch and McRae joining plus Krueger and Lipinski in, Moore back and the calamity of the 2020 off season further away, but are still starting from scratch. Hawks likewise have the new era of Sam Mitchell to freshen up the place but an ordinary list with one or two stars. Gold Coast have a list of on paper guns but are still so young and fragile it's hard to see them not imploding. North have a list that is getting better and better, but are still at the very start of their journey.

Of all the finalists from the season just gone, the only ones I can't see coming back up again are Geelong. It doesn't take a shrewd analyst to see that Chris Scott is death riding Geelong. He's got too many credits in the bank to get sacked but I think this will be the last year of their of this extended push before attempting a proper rebuild with what youth players they actually have left. Everyone's a little bit older and though their system will get them a few wins, I think enough teams will have too much power and energy for them to limp into the finals this time.

I think GWS might just make it again, but frankly the only reason they’ll make the finals is like 2021, the quality of the teams below them being even worse. If any of Fremantle or Carlton ended up Bradburying their way into 8th spot instead, it wouldn’t surprise me. Carlton are building a decent list, some of their big players are finding form and Vossy will give them a boost. I rate Freo - Cerra out is a setback but they are shaping up with a nice midfield albeit missing big names nearer both ends of the ground.

Unfortunately, I see Essendon growing in strength and belief, being consistently competitive from the get go and unlike this year being a true player in the finals series, not just a Plus One. They've turned over the list well and their if their key players progress at the same rate, I can see them breaking the comp open, especially with svengali Caracella behind the scenes.

Likewise, Melbourne are now undeniably a much more resilient outfit than I was prepared to give them credit for. It will be interesting to see how they handle a longer injury list and a harder fixture, as well as being the hunted, but I see them steeled by their achievements. Their game suits the current footy environment and though I still have doubts on whether they can go back to back, I don't see too many teams beating them unless they cave in like they have in the past.

Another footy team whose footy works currently is Sydney who somehow have revitalised their game without a rebuild. I still don't truly believe in them and have this nagging feeling this year was a mirage, but I can't argue with the results and they seem more resilient than the team's around them. I see a 70% chance they'll be very deep in finals and 30% chance of them dropping right out.

Brisbane have real quality everywhere, and they dropped away this year, but with Rayner back and their guns with another year of experience, I see them learning from their failures in recent years. They can't keep choking can they?

Talking of chokers, Port might slip back a bit after a disappointing end to 2021. Without Voss, their coaching is a lot less convincing and I wonder if the player Buy In will be a fraction less. I can't imagine them losing enough to put them out of finals but that fraction may just increase their inconsistency enough to cost them the premo finals placings and I wouldn't be surprised if the head honchos at Alberton are chatting to other clubs' more ambitious assistant coaches in June or July.

West Coast & Richmond will continue to wilt. The Tigers' footy is no longer à la mode and I feel the loss of Leppitch and Caracella can't be covered by A Kingsley, X Clarke and A MacQualter. I can envisage Hardwick ending up back at Port for 2023, leaving the reset to one of Clarke or Kingsley. The Eagles have got a bit more youth coming through but their system has proven faulty and will need a massive reset in the box before they are worthy contenders again.

They might even pass Adelaide on the way down. There's something about these Crows, it seems like they've put the past drama behind them and are turning the page. I still think they made a mistake retaining Walker but they could even use it to their advantage. don't think they will get far but will continue the progress of this year.

I've saved the two most interesting cases for last: the Bulldogs have a strong list with few holes, (as many of us predicted when we were trying to sell them Juicy Brucey). Sadly, Josh will miss most of the season, but Jamara's first full year should be exciting enough to more than make up for it. I feel that the Bulldogs are an exciting, emotive side rather than a ruthless machine like Geelong or Richmond in their day. It's that emotion which leaves me with question marks. How do they handle getting rolled in the 2021 GF, not firing a shot after half time? Do the doubts creep in? Do the umps go less easy on them? Does the harder fixture increase their pressure? Something tells me they'll slip back and be less consistent, and although I'd expect them to still go deep in finals, I don't see them making the big dance this time round.

So why on earth would I tempt fate by putting St Kilda so high? I know we don't have a strong list, and this past season has been a chastening experience leaving us with so many more doubts.

In short, I see our players and coaches benefiting from the mistakes they made this year. The players should come back to the club in far better nick for starters. Rath and Ratts inexplicably got caught out with the rules change this time last year; if they're as smart as folks claim they are, I don't expect them to be so blindsided again. We've turned over a few coaches but no one hugely impressive has come in, yet I think/hope Rath and Ratts are shrewder than they seemed this year. Additionally, surely our injuries & fixture can't possibly be as bad next season. All the boys started sniffing their own farts down at Moorabbin after the glorious achievement of a four-game winning streak in winter and winning one final. Expect them to be a bit wiser this time.

2021 was another year of experience for King, Higgins, Clark, Coffield, Butler, Howard, Wilkie, Billings, Marshall all of whom have experienced ups and downs that they will hopefully learn from. Steele and Sinclair came to the fore as leaders. It was an emerging year for Highmore, Byrnes, Bytel, Sharman, Connolly, Joyce. Paton and Gresh back in the 22. Allison and Heath bedding in. Hopefully Owens, Windhager and whichever elite midfielder we select coming in. Ross, Battle, Long and Billings both got a really good look at their standing in the comp and hopefully that spurs them on to be something greater than what they are.

And if none of the above happen, then it will definitely be the end of Ratten's career as senior coach. He's the coach under the most pressure in the comp, possibly excepting Hinkley. Everyone expects Dew to be s**t, he'll be gone regardless barring a miracle, the others are either too new or have too many credits in the bank, or their team is slowly rebuilding. If Ratts is axed, we'll be left with whichever of Richmond's assistant coaches didn't replace Dimma, or some mad leftfield smoky, unless Grant Thomas or Ross Lyon get a godfather offer to "come home", so let us just hope that Ratts is successful.

If you've read this far than I truly thank you. Just me and my vague ill-informed musings.
 
My predictions might need a bit of explanation. It's going to be long and not particularly informative so unless you're starved of reading material, I'd give it a miss. Here goes...

I think it's going to be a pretty tight competition next season. There won't be many standout teams due to the stagnation of the lists and for the last 5 years, it's been the tendance for any team to be capable of beating any team - I don't see any reason why that won't continue.

Having said that, there will be a few teams near the bottom who are deep into their rebuilds. It will be surprising if Collingwood, Hawthorn, North Melbourne or Gold Coast get out of the bottom, though I can't say for sure who will be picking up the spoon. Collingwood have Leppitch and McRae joining plus Krueger and Lipinski in, Moore back and the calamity of the 2020 off season further away, but are still starting from scratch. Hawks likewise have the new era of Sam Mitchell to freshen up the place but an ordinary list with one or two stars. Gold Coast have a list of on paper guns but are still so young and fragile it's hard to see them not imploding. North have a list that is getting better and better, but are still at the very start of their journey.

Of all the finalists from the season just gone, the only ones I can't see coming back up again are Geelong. It doesn't take a shrewd analyst to see that Chris Scott is death riding Geelong. He's got too many credits in the bank to get sacked but I think this will be the last year of their of this extended push before attempting a proper rebuild with what youth players they actually have left. Everyone's a little bit older and though their system will get them a few wins, I think enough teams will have too much power and energy for them to limp into the finals this time.

I think GWS might just make it again, but frankly the only reason they’ll make the finals is like 2021, the quality of the teams below them being even worse. If any of Fremantle or Carlton ended up Bradburying their way into 8th spot instead, it wouldn’t surprise me. Carlton are building a decent list, some of their big players are finding form and Vossy will give them a boost. I rate Freo - Cerra out is a setback but they are shaping up with a nice midfield albeit missing big names nearer both ends of the ground.

Unfortunately, I see Essendon growing in strength and belief, being consistently competitive from the get go and unlike this year being a true player in the finals series, not just a Plus One. They've turned over the list well and their if their key players progress at the same rate, I can see them breaking the comp open, especially with svengali Caracella behind the scenes.

Likewise, Melbourne are now undeniably a much more resilient outfit than I was prepared to give them credit for. It will be interesting to see how they handle a longer injury list and a harder fixture, as well as being the hunted, but I see them steeled by their achievements. Their game suits the current footy environment and though I still have doubts on whether they can go back to back, I don't see too many teams beating them unless they cave in like they have in the past.

Another footy team whose footy works currently is Sydney who somehow have revitalised their game without a rebuild. I still don't truly believe in them and have this nagging feeling this year was a mirage, but I can't argue with the results and they seem more resilient than the team's around them. I see a 70% chance they'll be very deep in finals and 30% chance of them dropping right out.

Brisbane have real quality everywhere, and they dropped away this year, but with Rayner back and their guns with another year of experience, I see them learning from their failures in recent years. They can't keep choking can they?

Talking of chokers, Port might slip back a bit after a disappointing end to 2021. Without Voss, their coaching is a lot less convincing and I wonder if the player Buy In will be a fraction less. I can't imagine them losing enough to put them out of finals but that fraction may just increase their inconsistency enough to cost them the premo finals placings and I wouldn't be surprised if the head honchos at Alberton are chatting to other clubs' more ambitious assistant coaches in June or July.

West Coast & Richmond will continue to wilt. The Tigers' footy is no longer à la mode and I feel the loss of Leppitch and Caracella can't be covered by A Kingsley, X Clarke and A MacQualter. I can envisage Hardwick ending up back at Port for 2023, leaving the reset to one of Clarke or Kingsley. The Eagles have got a bit more youth coming through but their system has proven faulty and will need a massive reset in the box before they are worthy contenders again.

They might even pass Adelaide on the way down. There's something about these Crows, it seems like they've put the past drama behind them and are turning the page. I still think they made a mistake retaining Walker but they could even use it to their advantage. don't think they will get far but will continue the progress of this year.

I've saved the two most interesting cases for last: the Bulldogs have a strong list with few holes, (as many of us predicted when we were trying to sell them Juicy Brucey). Sadly, Josh will miss most of the season, but Jamara's first full year should be exciting enough to more than make up for it. I feel that the Bulldogs are an exciting, emotive side rather than a ruthless machine like Geelong or Richmond in their day. It's that emotion which leaves me with question marks. How do they handle getting rolled in the 2021 GF, not firing a shot after half time? Do the doubts creep in? Do the umps go less easy on them? Does the harder fixture increase their pressure? Something tells me they'll slip back and be less consistent, and although I'd expect them to still go deep in finals, I don't see them making the big dance this time round.

So why on earth would I tempt fate by putting St Kilda so high? I know we don't have a strong list, and this past season has been a chastening experience leaving us with so many more doubts.

In short, I see our players and coaches benefiting from the mistakes they made this year. The players should come back to the club in far better nick for starters. Rath and Ratts inexplicably got caught out with the rules change this time last year; if they're as smart as folks claim they are, I don't expect them to be so blindsided again. We've turned over a few coaches but no one hugely impressive has come in, yet I think/hope Rath and Ratts are shrewder than they seemed this year. Additionally, surely our injuries & fixture can't possibly be as bad next season. All the boys started sniffing their own farts down at Moorabbin after the glorious achievement of a four-game winning streak in winter and winning one final. Expect them to be a bit wiser this time.

2021 was another year of experience for King, Higgins, Clark, Coffield, Butler, Howard, Wilkie, Billings, Marshall all of whom have experienced ups and downs that they will hopefully learn from. Steele and Sinclair came to the fore as leaders. It was an emerging year for Highmore, Byrnes, Bytel, Sharman, Connolly, Joyce. Paton and Gresh back in the 22. Allison and Heath bedding in. Hopefully Owens, Windhager and whichever elite midfielder we select coming in. Ross, Battle, Long and Billings both got a really good look at their standing in the comp and hopefully that spurs them on to be something greater than what they are.

And if none of the above happen, then it will definitely be the end of Ratten's career as senior coach. He's the coach under the most pressure in the comp, possibly excepting Hinkley. Everyone expects Dew to be sh*t, he'll be gone regardless barring a miracle, the others are either too new or have too many credits in the bank, or their team is slowly rebuilding. If Ratts is axed, we'll be left with whichever of Richmond's assistant coaches didn't replace Dimma, or some mad leftfield smoky, unless Grant Thomas or Ross Lyon get a godfather offer to "come home", so let us just hope that Ratts is successful.

If you've read this far than I truly thank you. Just me and my vague ill-informed musings.

A thoroughly enjoyable read - nice prediction!
 
A better draw, a good pre season and a decent run with injuries should see us finish between 5-8 I think.

I think we are definitely potentially in that range but until we see what those around us have managed in the preseason it's hard to know. Carlton and Freo types are in exactly the same type of band. We probably have to improve 10% to stay still every year and 25% to move forward. Our fortunes hinge on half a dozen players stepping up. Someone should pay Logan Austin to carry a cattle prod while he trains them up. Keep the *ers moving.
 
1. Port Adelaide
2. Brisbane
3. Melbourne
4. St Kilda
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Fremantle
7. Sydney
8. GWS

9. Richmond
10. Geelong
11. West Coast
12. Carlton
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. North Melbourne
16. Adelaide
17. Hawthorn
18. Collingwood
 
  1. Brisbane
  2. Melbourne
  3. Bulldogs
  4. Port
  5. Sydney
  6. Eagles
  7. Saints
  8. GWS
  9. Geelong
  10. Richmond
  11. Essendon
  12. Adelaide
  13. Carlton
  14. Collingwood
  15. Gold Coast
  16. Hawthorn
  17. Fremantle
  18. North

North just not there yet, I have no hope for Freo kicking a score to win much, rebuild, and individual not a team to raffle the last 4 spots. Blues consistently overrate themselves, Crows are fragile, Dons and Tigers are a bit like Port, can go well and can s**t the bed horribly on any given day, so raffle those spots. Cats still have enough to middle just depends on randoms all the way up to Eagles, what pieces where and how are they firing at any given time given what will generally happen as spikes and dips still happen since eventual laxing of vigilance due to benchmarking. Swans and Port are interesting, could go very high as structured clubs with means to do so, but could start really damned horribly and play catch up.

I'd probably expect Eagles, us to drop depeding on happenstances and Freo/North to be the ones to switch as I just don't rate Freos F50 at all, it's disgusting. Brissie for the flag if they fix up their goal kicking, Lions v Demons.
 
I see one of two things happening. First, we completely smash expectations, we come back fit and fired up, we have luck with injuries (or lack thereof), we get an easier fixture. Secondly, same old, same old, we struggle at times, we lose games from inaccuracy time and time again, Ratten is replaced at seasons end. Personally, I like the first option more. So...

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Port
4. Saints
5. Essendon
6. Bulldogs
7. Carlton
8. Geelong
9. West Coast
10. Gold Coast
11. Sydney
12. North
13. Fremantle
14. Hawks
15. GWS
16. Adelaide
17. Richmond
18. Collingwood

I see 2022 as being a pretty big shake up year, I think Melbourne will cement themselves as the top club throughout the year, Carlton will break into the eight and look very promising. Geelong is that annoying fly on the wall that won't piss off. I keep tipping them to fall out of the 8 and they never do.

Finals R1:
Saints 10.12 - 72 vs Melbourne 14.8 - 92
Brisbane 15.6 - 96 vs Port 7.7 - 49
Geelong 10.10 - 70 vs Essendon 10.9 - 69
Bulldogs 13.7 - 85 vs Carlton 18.4 - 112

Finals R2:
Saints 16.9 - 105 vs Geelong 6.14 - 50
Port 12.7 - 79 vs Carlton 11.11 - 77

Finals R3:
Saints 10.14 - 74 vs Brisbane 9.9 - 63
Melbourne 15.15 - 105 vs Port 16.13 - 109

Grand Final:
Saints 5.19 - 49 vs Port 7.8 - 50 (can you imagine the melts)
 
I see one of two things happening. First, we completely smash expectations, we come back fit and fired up, we have luck with injuries (or lack there of), we get an easier fixture. Secondly, same old, same old, we struggle at times, we lose games from inaccuracy time and time again, Ratten is replaced at seasons end. Personally, I like the first option more. So...

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Port
4. Saints
5. Essendon
6. Bulldogs
7. Carlton
8. Geelong
9. West Coast
10. Gold Coast
11. Sydney
12. North
13. Fremantle
14. Hawks
15. GWS
16. Adelaide
17. Richmond
18. Collingwood

I see 2022 as being a pretty big shake up year, I think Melbourne will cement themselves as the top club throughout the year, Carlton will break into the eight and look very promising. Geelong is that annoying fly on the wall that won't piss off. I keep tipping them to fall out of the 8 and they never do.

Finals R1:
Saints 10.12 - 72 vs Melbourne 14.8 - 92
Brisbane 15.6 - 96 vs Port 7.7 - 49
Geelong 10.10 - 70 vs Essendon 10.9 - 69
Bulldogs 13.7 - 85 vs Carlton 18.4 - 112

Finals R2:
Saints 16.9 - 105 vs Geelong 6.14 - 50
Port 12.7 - 79 vs Carlton 11.11 - 77

Finals R3:
Saints 10.14 - 74 vs Brisbane 9.9 - 63
Melbourne 15.15 - 105 vs Port 16.13 - 109

Grand Final:
Saints 5.19 - 49 vs Port 7.8 - 50


After hearing a guy on radio yesterday I honestly believe that the Pies could easily play finals if they get an injury free run. Their back line was missing Howe and Moore for large chunks of last year, they still have a good midfield and probably only need a bit of a good run from their forwards and Grundy to play like he used to and they might be. better than expected. I could see them do an Essendon with some youth and experience mixed together. DeGoey is probably their most important player, if he can get fit they might surprise. He seems to have decided to step up.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top