Prediction Ladder Prediction 2022

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kulak

Premiership Player
May 16, 2006
3,967
5,304
Sydney!!!
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
GWS
Last edited:

GROTTO

TheBrownDog
Jul 5, 2013
53,561
65,358
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
There was one betting company William Hill that offered $100m for the correct ladder position for the year.

:$
 

Ciao Giacomo

Ciao Giacomo
Nov 8, 2021
31
69
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
1 Brisbane
2 Bulldogs
3 Melbourne
4 Richmond
5 GWS
6 Essendon
7 Geelong
8 St Kilda

9 Poort
10 Fremantle
11 Sydney
12 Carlton
13 West Coast
14 Adelaide
15 Collingwood
16 Gold Coast
17 North Melbourne
18 Hawthorn
 

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dude316

Club Legend
Apr 26, 2009
2,623
13,722
The Armada Room
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt
There was one betting company William Hill that offered $100m for the correct ladder position for the year.

:$

Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.
 

arrowman

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 27, 2004
11,747
13,315
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.
6.402E15 - so yes, quite a large number!
 
May 24, 2006
67,319
125,707
Car 55
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Redbacks, Sturt, Liverpool, Arizona
Melbourne
Bulldogs
GWS
Brisbane
Essendon
Geelong
Richmond
Sydney

Port
Carlton
West Coast
Adelaide
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Fremantle
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
 

pjcrows

Hall of Famer
Sep 10, 2004
33,115
52,045
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Minnesota Vikings
Melbourne
Bulldogs
Essendon
Port
Sydney
Brisbane
GWS
Fremantle

Carlton
Geelong
Richmond
St Kilda
Adelaide
West Coast
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
 

Jcpdragonx

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 19, 2010
12,386
13,514
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Lakers, Chiefs
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Essendon
Port
Sydney
GWS
St.Kilda

Geelong
Carlton
Fremantle
West Coast
Richmond
Collingwood
Adelaide
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
North
 

Thylacinus

Club Legend
Apr 10, 2008
2,421
2,325
Ubiquitous
AFL Club
Adelaide
Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
Essendon
Geelong
Crows
Port
GWS
Carlton
Sydney
Fremantle
Richmond
St Kilda
West Coast
Gold Coast
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Hawthorn
 

WetCrow1991

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 23, 2016
11,557
10,515
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Essendon
Richmond
St Kilda
Geelong
GWS
Fremantle
Carlton
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Hawthorn
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Adelaide
 

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latinoheat

Club Legend
Sep 8, 2008
2,930
3,451
argentina
AFL Club
Adelaide
1. Bulldogs
2. Brisbane
3. Port
4. Melbourne
5. GWS
6. Essendon
7. Richmond
8. Geelong

9. Sydney
10. West Coast
11. Crows
12. Carlton
13. St kilda
14. Freo
15. Collingwood
16. North Melbourne
17. Hawks
18. Gold Coast
 

Scorpus

Fair Value
Apr 16, 2014
47,334
116,481
AFL Club
Adelaide
I did this once and I was horrible that time. So here goes

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. GWS
4. Richmond
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Port Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. Geelong

9. Sydney
10. St Kilda
11. Carlton
12. West Coast
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. North Melbourne
16. Adelaide
17. Gold Coast
18. Hawthorn

I reckon there's a huge gulf between Fremantle and the bottom 5 teams. Hawthorn close to having a historically bad list and no genius coach any more
 

BrissyCrow

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2011
3,781
4,058
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg & Most Other Tiger Teams
Who really knows. Too many ifs and buts. Struggled everywhere but I found the bottom four the hardest to pick. But here goes.

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
GWS
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Geelong

Sydney
Carlton
Fremantle
West Coast
Adelaide
St Kilda
Gold Coast
North
Collingwood
Hawthorn
 

George Kramer

Club Legend
Aug 30, 2021
1,940
3,356
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
WB
Port
Lions
Cats
Essendon
GWS
Sydney

Carlton
Richmond
Saints
West Coast
Freo
Adelaide
North
Hawks
Pies
Gold Coast

Port to lose another prelim
 

GreyCrow

TheBrownDog
Mar 21, 2016
61,503
94,509
Down South Corvus Tristis
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8
 

George Kramer

Club Legend
Aug 30, 2021
1,940
3,356
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8
Ports older players have one more reasonable year in them to keep them in the 8, but how high you are right depend on the kids. The unknown is the impact of another finals failure, that has to play with their psyche, plus will Wines produce another year like that? Unlikely. They won’t be a serious contender as they didn’t address their midfield weakness and their older players are getting older.
 

PoholkMe10

Debutant
Sep 7, 2020
88
192
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Dallas Cowboys
Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.

Yes but thats assuming ladder position is completely random.

If we were to assume the average footy fan could correctly group teams into the top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6, with the order of teams within these groups being random (a somewhat more realistic proposition, as some teams are clearly stronger than others).

Using this we have a 6!, or 1/720 chance of correctly ordering any one group.

Then the probability of correctly ordering all 3 groups (using a binomial distribution with probability of success being 1/720) is 2.6792e-09 or 1 in 373 million - which is still less likely than winning the lottery.
 

BrissyCrow

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2011
3,781
4,058
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg & Most Other Tiger Teams
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8

I agree. For me I am also influenced by my loathing of the club and I tend to push them down the list because I dont want them to win another flag especially as they would then be able claim bragging rights to two premierships just like us.
 

relapse

Moderator
Jun 21, 2004
26,356
25,154
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
49ers, AFC Wimbledon, Utah Jazz
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Richmond
Melbourne
Geelong
West Coast
Port
St Kilda

Essendon
Sydney
GWS
Freo
Carlton
Adelaide
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
 

footy4ever

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 23, 2008
22,745
28,043
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
Bulldogs
Brisbane
GWS
Sydney
Richmond
Geelong
Essendon

Port
West Coast
Adelaide
Carlton
St Kilda
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
 

Danger in Texas

DID I STUTTER?
Mar 28, 2011
26,021
20,209
Pluto
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Reds, Lakers, Gold City, Knights
1: Melbourne
2: Brisbane
3: GWS
4: Western Bulldogs
5: Essendon
6: Richmond
7: Port Adelaide
8: Fremantle

9: Geelong
10: Carlton
11: Sydney
12: St Kilda
13: Adelaide
14: North Melbourne
15: West Coast
16: Gold Coast
17: Collingwood
18: Hawthorn
 

WeeBlake

Club Legend
Aug 5, 2006
1,686
2,140
Melbourne
AFL Club
Adelaide
Brisbane
Bulldogs
GWS
Melbourne
Port
Richmond
Sydney
Carlton

Geelong
Essendon
Saints
West Coast
Freo
Gold Coast
North
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks

Couple of punts here, chiefly Carlton, but they could get a bounce from their new coach and have a very good young spine, and a decent midfield, especially if Cripps can recover.

GWS were very impressive late last year and still stacked with talent.
 

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