Ladder predictions

[Tom FC]

Taking all the ladder predictions from the '2001 ladder' topic, I found the overall predicted position for every club by every Bigfooty poster. There were 29 ladders posted, I eliminated the highest two and lowest two predictions for each club, and got the following results.

1. Essendon (average prediction 1.28)
2. Melbourne (3.44)
3. Brisbane (4.6)
4. Hawthorn (5.28)
5. Kangaroos (5.92)
6. St.Kilda (6.92)
7. Carlton (7.36)
8. Richmond (7.52)
9. Geelong (7.96)
10. Sydney (8.44)
11. Western (9.32)
12. Fremantle (11.76)
13. Adelaide (12.32)
14. Port (13.08)
15. West Coast (13.96)
16. Collingwood (15.08)

Just goes to show that there is a use for Excel after all.

 

[gocatsgo]

Interesting to note

Clubs 10-15 are all interstate clubs apart from the Bulldogs who have made the finals for the past few years.

Is Brisbane the only interstate club we rate? Or is it this way because the vast amount of supporters here are Brisbane supporters.

Yet people still rate Collingwood the lowest team in the entire competition.

Based on these results, it looks as though we're in for another boring season, Same Grand Final as last year, and StKilda the only real improver

 

[ant]

Fremantle is rated above Adelaide, that's a bit of a joke. (no offence freo fans)

 

[CJH]

Woo Hoo!

WOO HOO!

WOO HOO!!!

We didn't come 9'th!!!

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This is a hallucination and these faces are in a dream. A computer generated environment; a fantasy island you can do anything and not have to face the consequences.

[This message has been edited by CJH (edited 27 November 2000).]

 

[GoEagles]

ant - Just curious to ask, why is it a joke? Adelaide definately went down in 2000 while Fremantle went up and definately look to be in much better condition both players and future potential than Adelaide. If you think otherwise, say your piece

 

[sabre_ac]

Originally posted by ant:
Fremantle is rated above Adelaide, that's a bit of a joke. (no offence freo fans)

Adelaide have few decent young players that can carry them in the future, and there forward line is non existent .Blight the master that he is saw the writing on the wall when he bailed.
(No offence adelaide fans)

 

[walshy1993]

adelaide are completly lacking of key position players, strong midfield that carries the team
fremantle have a vast amount of talent that is only going to get better and better
i dont see this at adelaide
if you took away your typical adelaide narrow mindedness you would see this (no offence adelaide fans)

 

[Guest]

Why does everyone think Adelaide is such an old side. Our core group of players are:

Riccuito 25
Basset 24
Biglands 23
Burton 22
Eccles 21
Edwards 24
Goodwin 24
Hart 26
Johnson 22
Mcleod 24
Vardy 24
Welsh 22
Hewitt 22
Perrie 21
Bode 21

There's a still a few years left in most of them.

And hopefully Hewitt and possibly Richardson from the SANFL will strengthen our key positions. We may not do any good this year but I don't think were as bad as everyone is saying.

By the way, no offence taken.



[This message has been edited by Spogs (edited 27 November 2000).]

 

[dees*gal]

well, i'm sure that anything i say, someone would not agree, but personally, i don't think essendon will do too well. all fairytails come to an end, and because melbourne came so close, and pretty much tasted the victory, i think they will win the premier cup. here what i think.

1. melbourne
2. brisbane
3. carlton.
3. essendon
5. saints
and i'm not sure of the rest. i'll think about it and get back to you...

 

[ant]

Fremantle is a bit like Port Adelaide, so much young talent, yet unfulfilled. Every year it seems Fremantle are described as having such a young talented side, that just just happens to fail to live up to expectations, season after season. (At least Port made the finals in 1999). I see them improving slightly, but not enough to win consistently away from home or win 10 of their home games. 6 to 8 wins for Freo and at least 10 to 12 for the Crows, which isn't unreasonable.

As for my narrowmindedness, I admit I may be a little bias but its not like I'm saying the Crows will finish top two, but we'll definitely finish above Freo. My opinion, so don't take any offence, I didn't take any offence to your comments.

And Walshy, if you could see past your Adelaide hatred and Vic arrogance, you'd see that player for player the Crows are the better side than Freo. Any clear thinking individual can identify this. I suppose we'll just have to wait until next year to see what happens.

 

[CJH]

Tom,

This is quite a fair piece of analysis of the available data. Quite interesting.

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This is a hallucination and these faces are in a dream. A computer generated environment; a fantasy island you can do anything and not have to face the consequences.

 

[Tom FC]

I thought the most interesting thing to come out of the ladder was that most people believe that last year's wooden spooners, who won just one game, will do better than one of 2000's dominate teams, Carlton.
Regardless of recruiting, I believe this is just plain wrong.

 

[CJH]

At first glance this does appear flawed Tom, but under closer analysis, it is actually quite conservative.

It is my view that the St Kilda playing list of 2000 was better than the 16th rank. Given a few deficiencies in defence, I would put them between 8 - 12. (Their poor showing was caused by factors other than playing list) Combine this with the impressive influx of player recruiting and the aura of Blight and 6th position is not unreasonable.

Also look at recent history for some kind of precedent. In 1997 Melbourne finished 16th with a good but injury ravaged list. They turned this around the following year - with a new coach - to finish 4th after the Home and Away rounds and 3rd after the completion of the finals.

In 1998, Brisbane finished 16th also with a list that should be ranked higher. The following year they completed the h&a series in 3rd place, again after changing coach.

In 1999 Collingwood finished last and also changed coaches but only managed to rocket up to 15th place. The difference here is that Collingwood's 1999 list was a genuine #16 in the rankings.

Also consider that Melbourne finished 14th in 1999 and made it to the Grand Final last year.

Carlton have lost a few players through salary cap restrictions they probably would have rather kept - Hamill and Murphy - and also have a replaced the experienced Parkin with a novic - albeit highly credentialled and regarded - coach. This may explain an increase in the pessimism towards Carlton.

Then again, we may look at our lists again at the end of next season shaking our heads saying what were we thinking!

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This is a hallucination and these faces are in a dream. A computer generated environment; a fantasy island you can do anything and not have to face the consequences.

 

[Blues2001]

Originally posted by Tom FC
Taking all the ladder predictions from the '2001 ladder' topic, I found the overall predicted position for every club by every Bigfooty poster. There were 29 ladders posted, I eliminated the highest two and lowest two predictions for each club, and got the following results.

1. Essendon (average prediction 1.28)
2. Melbourne (3.44)
3. Brisbane (4.6)
4. Hawthorn (5.28)
5. Kangaroos (5.92)
6. St.Kilda (6.92)
7. Carlton (7.36)
8. Richmond (7.52)
9. Geelong (7.96)
10. Sydney (8.44)
11. Western (9.32)
12. Fremantle (11.76)
13. Adelaide (12.32)
14. Port (13.08)
15. West Coast (13.96)
16. Collingwood (15.08)

Just goes to show that there is a use for Excel after all.

Interesting to see this now. Collingwood, Port, Adelaide and Carlton underrated. Melbourne, Brisbane and St Kilda all badly overrated. Richmond rated one spot too high!

 

[Jars458]

Originally posted by sabre_ac


Adelaide have few decent young players that can carry them in the future, and there forward line is non existent .Blight the master that he is saw the writing on the wall when he bailed.
(No offence adelaide fans)

You are demented

5-4 vs 0-9

only you can rationalise that!!

All our best players are about 24-25 or less except D Jarman

We don't need youngsters

All you have is youngsters. Can't do it that way

You need a balanced list

Oh - and a coach!!!

 

[Joel]

Bit different from what people expected, ha?

 

[ant]

Originally posted by Jars458


You are demented

5-4 vs 0-9

only you can rationalise that!!

All our best players are about 24-25 or less except D Jarman

We don't need youngsters

All you have is youngsters. Can't do it that way

You need a balanced list

Oh - and a coach!!!

Ah, Jars, I was trying to tell everybody this but they all had a go at me, Sabre, Walshy, GoEagles. Rating Freo ahead of the Crows was a joke back then, and it's a joke now (no offence Freo fans)

 

[GOALden Hawk]

Originally posted by Tom FC
Taking all the ladder predictions from the '2001 ladder' topic, I found the overall predicted position for every club by every Bigfooty poster. There were 29 ladders posted, I eliminated the highest two and lowest two predictions for each club, and got the following results.

1. Essendon (average prediction 1.28)
2. Melbourne (3.44)
3. Brisbane (4.6)
4. Hawthorn (5.28)
5. Kangaroos (5.92)
6. St.Kilda (6.92)
7. Carlton (7.36)
8. Richmond (7.52)
9. Geelong (7.96)
10. Sydney (8.44)
11. Western (9.32)
12. Fremantle (11.76)
13. Adelaide (12.32)
14. Port (13.08)
15. West Coast (13.96)
16. Collingwood (15.08)

Just goes to show that there is a use for Excel after all.

Just thought I'd put this up again for people to have a look at with 6 rounds to go...

Collingwood last...I don't think so!
Port 14th, Melbourne 2nd...no
St. Kilda 6th...now that is funny!
Fremantle above Port....

 

[The Hitman]

Originally posted by Tom FC
Just goes to show that there is a use for Excel after all.

Funny, I never saw any use in Gavin Excell...

 

[GOALden Hawk]

Originally posted by The Hitman


Funny, I never saw any use in Gavin Excell...

Except when he kicked 9 goals against us at Princes Park in 1989!

 

[sabre_ac]

Originally posted by Jars458


You are demented

5-4 vs 0-9

only you can rationalise that!!

All our best players are about 24-25 or less except D Jarman

We don't need youngsters

All you have is youngsters. Can't do it that way

You need a balanced list

Oh - and a coach!!!

Your the demented one, have a look at the date I posted that.

Come back to me when you realise your stupid mistake.

 

[The Hitman]

Originally posted by GOALden Hawk


Except when he kicked 9 goals against us at Princes Park in 1989!

Sorry, selective memory