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Ladder Predictor

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There are essentially five teams fighting for top four - Swans, Port, Hawthorn, Freo and us.

Break each team's remaining draw down:

Sydney
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 2 (Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, both away)
Other potential danger games on paper: 1 (West Coast away, not many people would be tipping the Eagles though)
Games against current bottom 8: 4 (Carlton, St Kilda, Dogs, Richmond)

Port Adelaide
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 4 (Fremantle, Gold Coast and Collingwood all away; Sydney at AO)
Other potential danger games on paper: Tonight v Essendon at AO seems to be the only one
Games against current bottom 8: 3 (Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton)

Hawthorn
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 4 (Swans at MCG, us, Collingwood, Fremantle away)
Other potential danger games on paper: 1 (Adelaide at AO next week, minus Rioli/Gibson/Sewell/perhaps Lake)
Games against current bottom 8: 2 (Bulldogs, Melbourne)

Fremantle
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 3 (us in Geelong, Hawthorn and Port both at Subi)
Other potential danger games: 0
Games against current bottom 8: 5 (Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane)

Geelong
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 3 (North, Hawthorn, Fremantle at Geelong)
Other potential danger games: 0 (if we genuinely want to finish top 4 we shouldn't drop any other game)
Games against current bottom 8: 5 (Dogs, GWS, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane)

Sydney and Fremantle clearly have the easiest runs home hence many people tipping them to finish top 2.

We no doubt have an easier run home than Port or Hawthorn. Both still need to travel to Perth to play Fremantle and both play Collingwood at the MCG, who may be fighting for a home elimination final.

It's also worth noting that when we play Hawthorn in round 22, we'll be coming off an 8 day break playing Carlton at Etihad and the Hawks will be coming off a 6 day break and a trip to Perth in what will no doubt be a taxing game v Fremantle. We've rarely had fixturing luck like that this season and it could be an important advantage.

I reckon Hawthorn's loss last night has well and truly opened the door for us to finish top 4, and would go so far to say that if we win two of our games v North-Fremantle-Hawthorn, we'll be very hard to remove.
 
Vdubs said:
Swans Haw?
Freo Haw?
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Hawthorn are gone. They won't make top four with their draw and injuries. This may be decided within the next two weeks before they even play Freo away and Geelong. Although I'm guessing you have Hawthorn pencilled in for a win against the Cats with almost certainty. But even then they still won't make top four.
 
Seeds said:
Hawthorn are gone. They won't make top four with their draw and injuries. This may be decided within the next two weeks before they even play Freo away and Geelong. Although I'm guessing you have Hawthorn pencilled in for a win against the Cats with almost certainty. But even then they still won't make top four.
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No, I don't do that, I haven't got past Footscray yet.
 
fpm84 said:
There are essentially five teams fighting for top four - Swans, Port, Hawthorn, Freo and us.

Break each team's remaining draw down:

Sydney
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 2 (Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, both away)
Other potential danger games on paper: 1 (West Coast away, not many people would be tipping the Eagles though)
Games against current bottom 8: 4 (Carlton, St Kilda, Dogs, Richmond)

Port Adelaide
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 4 (Fremantle, Gold Coast and Collingwood all away; Sydney at AO)
Other potential danger games on paper: Tonight v Essendon at AO seems to be the only one
Games against current bottom 8: 3 (Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton)

Hawthorn
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 4 (Swans at MCG, us, Collingwood, Fremantle away)
Other potential danger games on paper: 1 (Adelaide at AO next week, minus Rioli/Gibson/Sewell/perhaps Lake)
Games against current bottom 8: 2 (Bulldogs, Melbourne)

Fremantle
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 3 (us in Geelong, Hawthorn and Port both at Subi)
Other potential danger games: 0
Games against current bottom 8: 5 (Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane)

Geelong
Games remaining against current top 8 teams: 3 (North, Hawthorn, Fremantle at Geelong)
Other potential danger games: 0 (if we genuinely want to finish top 4 we shouldn't drop any other game)
Games against current bottom 8: 5 (Dogs, GWS, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane)

Sydney and Fremantle clearly have the easiest runs home hence many people tipping them to finish top 2.

We no doubt have an easier run home than Port or Hawthorn. Both still need to travel to Perth to play Fremantle and both play Collingwood at the MCG, who may be fighting for a home elimination final.

It's also worth noting that when we play Hawthorn in round 22, we'll be coming off an 8 day break playing Carlton at Etihad and the Hawks will be coming off a 6 day break and a trip to Perth in what will no doubt be a taxing game v Fremantle. We've rarely had fixturing luck like that this season and it could be an important advantage.

I reckon Hawthorn's loss last night has well and truly opened the door for us to finish top 4, and would go so far to say that if we win two of our games v North-Fremantle-Hawthorn, we'll be very hard to remove.
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How do we have a tougher draw then Freemantle? They play Hawks, Geelong (in Geelong) and Port. We play Hawks, Freo (in Geelong) and North. So the difference is we play North and they play Port. Port is tougher than North. The other difference is we play them in Geelong. So I struggle how you don't find Freo's draw tougher than ours let alone easier.
 

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Seeds said:
Fair enough. Although if you don't look a week ahead then you can't really be making at a guess at who will playing in the GF then either.
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Well, I made that guess in October 2013, and have to stick to it, ie Haw Swans. But during the season, I am not up to games weeks ahead. Suppose that may be inconsistent, sorry.
And made the prediction Haw Freo in Oct 2012.
 
Catsmaninamerica said:
just completed the ladder predictor. I have the Cats finishing 2nd. We wont drop another game for the year imo - possibly Freo at Skilled, but if we rest players who are hurting now by then we will be ok i think. Swans finish 1st, Freo 3rd, and I have Gold Coast finishing 4th. Then Port Adelaide 5th (tough run home) Collingwood 6, Hawthorn 7 and Norf coming in 8th.

Would love to see where you guys have us finish. Go on. Have a crack. Lets see what you come up with!
http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor
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1. Geelong
2. Fremantle
3. Sydney
4. Hawthorn
5. Port Adelaide
6. Nth Melbourne
7. Gold Coast
8. Collingwood

Which sets up and interesting 1st round of the finals.

Geelong v Hawthorn
Fremantle v Sydney
Port Adelaide v Collingwood
Nth Melb v Gold Coast
 
Seeds said:
How do we have a tougher draw then Freemantle? They play Hawks, Geelong (in Geelong) and Port. We play Hawks, Freo (in Geelong) and North. So the difference is we play North and they play Port. Port is tougher than North. The other difference is we play them in Geelong. So I struggle how you don't find Freo's draw tougher than ours let alone easier.
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Fremantle play Hawthorn and Port at home. I wouldn't be as confident about them winning at MCG and AO respectively (in fact they've already lost at both this season) but it's a different story at Subi.

Likewise I'd feel more confident about our game v North if it was at Geelong rather than Etihad where they play their best football and have beaten us 2 of the past 3 times.
 
Seeds said:
You should go on holidays then. No point worrying. Its all been decided already. Wonder if anyone doing their ladder predictors yesterday had Hawthorn losing to North? What do you think?
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Doesn't that comment apply to everyone in the thread doing their predictions? What's your gripe?
 
I used to think the importance of the top four was all about the double chance. Having that safety net if you lose first week of finals.
But now, I think it's all about a week off & home prelim. A week off, no travel and you play against a team who won't be as fresh as you are.

We finished second got a home final at our fortress and what good did it do? We then ran out of legs in the final quarter of a prelim. Losing that first final puts you on death row. It's just delaying the end result.

So for me, IF we are lucky enough to finish top four, and IF it pans out we travel we just SET ourselves to go anywhere and just beat them. Just do it. Give everything for that one game. Fanatical, gut running, never give up. There will be pressure on the home team and we should make them feel it.

Because if we do it, week off, MCG prelim, against a less fresh team. That is our best shot.
It's what Freo did in 2013, Sydney did in 2012. They finished 3rd, they travelled, and they just got the job done.
Finish top four, kill yourself to win week one, and regenerate your spent body for the next fortnight.
 
catempire said:
Doesn't that comment apply to everyone in the thread doing their predictions? What's your gripe?
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A lot of discussion on another thread about who should rested this week

My suggestion is that 'seeds' be rested. He has been in a foul mood all week. Disagrees with everyone about everything

Your making sense to me Cat
 
Seeds said:
You should go on holidays then. No point worrying. Its all been decided already. Wonder if anyone doing their ladder predictors yesterday had Hawthorn losing to North? What do you think?
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Which is why ladder predictors this far from the finish line, are pretty worthless. Look at the H&A games we dropped last year, for example: an undermanned Collingwood, Brisbane, Adelaide and North Melbourne. My opinion is that if your destiny is in your own hands (which it is with us; if we win every remaining game, it would take something absolutely extraordinary to keep us out of the top two and the lowest we could possibly finish is third), you shouldn't waste your time with ladder predictors.
 
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kimodgers said:
A lot of discussion on another thread about who should rested this week

My suggestion is that 'seeds' be rested. He has been in a foul mood all week. Disagrees with everyone about everything

Your making sense to me Cat
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No way. He's one of our most important posters. In the top 10 every week.
 
Partridge said:
No way. He's one of our most important posters. In the top 10 every week.
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I had detected a little man love between you & Seeds over the journey. But, hey, that's OK. You may be right tho about Seeds being amongst the first 10 picked - a sort of a posters Ballantine. Not a lot of talent, not pretty, mentally challenged & nobody likes him.

On that basis, I would also have him picked in the first 10 for a schoolyard kick about.
 
kimodgers said:
I had detected a little man love between you & Seeds over the journey. But, hey, that's OK. You may be right tho about Seeds being amongst the first 10 picked - a sort of a posters Ballantine. Not a lot of talent, not pretty, mentally challenged & nobody likes him.

On that basis, I would also have him picked in the first 10 for a schoolyard kick about.
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You couldn't be more wrong (I'm presuming "over the journey" is used as the approved footy commentary term instead of "over time"). We rarely agree on much to be honest, but most of his points are well argued and he's got an independent mind - a very good thing to have.
 
We are a littl
Partridge said:
You couldn't be more wrong (I'm presuming "over the journey" is used as the approved footy commentary term instead of "over time"). We rarely agree on much to be honest, but most of his points are well argued and he's got an independent mind - a very good thing to have.
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We are a little off-topic, so best leave it there

But given that you 'rarely agree' with Seeds, I will now pay all your coming posts with far more respect

What these forums need are more posters disagreeing with Seeds
 
BotsMaster said:
Really? You sure you're not spouting bullshit?
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As real as Haw Swans for this year. Do you think Haw Freo last year sounded far fetched in oct 2012? I seriously thought Hawks would want it so much and had the ability, and that Freo was emerging and ready, and even this year, Freo look very good to me, just lack a KF to assist Pav.
 

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kimodgers said:
A lot of discussion on another thread about who should rested this week

My suggestion is that 'seeds' be rested. He has been in a foul mood all week. Disagrees with everyone about everything

Your making sense to me Cat
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I'm in a fantastic mood. always am after Hawthorn lose the night before.
 
kimodgers said:
We are a littl

We are a little off-topic, so best leave it there

But given that you 'rarely agree' with Seeds, I will now pay all your coming posts with far more respect

What these forums need are more posters disagreeing with Seeds
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More than happy for posters to disagree with me as long as they respond to questions and use well thought out argument (it's the best way to learn new things). Partridge often does as well as many others on here. You struggle a bit in this area though and seem to disappear from discussions once your argument has been refuted.
 
If everthing goes our way, then we can finish very high on the ladder, but as we all know, that is extremely unlikely to happen.

A couple of people are saying that we won't drop another game for the season, but there is such a low probability of that occuring.
Everybody is highlighting the "Danger Games" as the Dockers, Hawks and Kangas. That makes sense, but you also have to take into account that we also have:
The Blues (who we nearly lost to just a few weeks ago)
The Lions (who we beat by only 1 point last year, even though it was at Simonds Stadium)
So realistically, by the end of the H&A season, I think that the worst-case scenario is that we have lost 4 more games from now on.

BUT, and it is a very big "but", if we play at our very best for the remainder of the H&A season and our key players return to full fitness and form, I honestly think we can give the top 3 a good shake.

My concern is that even if we finish high on the ladder, we would have had to work so very hard to get there, and we as a team will be burnt out when we get to the finals.
 
Seeds said:
How do we have a tougher draw then Freemantle? They play Hawks, Geelong (in Geelong) and Port. We play Hawks, Freo (in Geelong) and North. So the difference is we play North and they play Port. Port is tougher than North. The other difference is we play them in Geelong. So I struggle how you don't find Freo's draw tougher than ours let alone easier.
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NM is undefeated against the top 4 . And we play them at Etihad, their preferred venue, roof shut, multiple inside mids, our weakness, NM is just as tough as Port from here on in.
 
Vdubs said:
NM is undefeated against the top 4 . And we play them at Etihad, their preferred venue, roof shut, multiple inside mids, our weakness, NM is just as tough as Port from here on in.
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Maybe. North lost to Brisbane last week and were very sloppy with disposal last night despite their win. very hard to judge them at the moment.
 

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