Ladder Predictor

[The rabbi]

I take that as not a negative?
Anyway, at this stage of my 6th decade of life, I fear there is very little I can do to change. Reading posts here that are so different to my way of thinking is definitely beneficial.

There is plenty of time for us old blokes to change. It's called decomposing.

 

[Teriyakicat]

NM is undefeated against the top 4 . And we play them at Etihad, their preferred venue, roof shut, multiple inside mids, our weakness, NM is just as tough as Port from here on in.

Let's have the roof open, shall we? And watch Brad Scott explode

 

[Teriyakicat]

There is plenty of time for us old blokes to change. It's called decomposing.

I understand that it starts with the brain, rabbi

 

[Teriyakicat]

If everthing goes our way, then we can finish very high on the ladder, but as we all know, that is extremely unlikely to happen.

A couple of people are saying that we won't drop another game for the season, but there is such a low probability of that occuring.
Everybody is highlighting the "Danger Games" as the Dockers, Hawks and Kangas. That makes sense, but you also have to take into account that we also have:
The Blues (who we nearly lost to just a few weeks ago)
The Lions (who we beat by only 1 point last year, even though it was at Simonds Stadium)
So realistically, by the end of the H&A season, I think that the worst-case scenario is that we have lost 4 more games from now on.

BUT, and it is a very big "but", if we play at our very best for the remainder of the H&A season and our key players return to full fitness and form, I honestly think we can give the top 3 a good shake.

My concern is that even if we finish high on the ladder, we would have had to work so very hard to get there, and we as a team will be burnt out when we get to the finals.

That's why resting significant players is so important- so they don't burn out.

 

[The rabbi]

I understand that it starts with the brain, rabbi

It certainly does. I would forget my head if it wasn't screwed on.

 

[The rabbi]

Anyway, for what it's worth. I think that the Dawks and Sydney or Freo will play off. Geelong will finish around 6th. Their poor percentage won't help their cause. I hope that the Cats can win at the very least one finals game and give the young kids some valuable big stage experience.

 

[kimodgers]

More than happy for posters to disagree with me as long as they respond to questions and use well thought out argument (it's the best way to learn new things). Partridge often does as well as many others on here. You struggle a bit in this area though and seem to disappear from discussions once your argument has been refuted.

Have looked back on various threads and I have yet had an argument refuted by you. And I have not disappeared anywhere. Always about.

I am happy to help you out here coz Partridge says you are a reasonable guy.

Give me your top 3 questions that I apparently have not responded to and I'll give you the full courtesy of full replies. I have just looked back on some of our recent exchanges and my word count has been 5 times yours. I know, I know - quality versus quantity.

Anyway, please fire away. I'll get back to them after G Ablett finishes with the Cobblers.

Edit: Assuming they can pop his shoulder back in. Awful.

 

[kimodgers]

Doesn't that comment apply to everyone in the thread doing their predictions? What's your gripe?

Hey Cat

You scored an apology from Seeds!

How did you do that?

 

[Catatonic Shock]

I have us finishing second to the Swans winning every game by 100 points to end the year with a percentage of 155%.
Bias? Whats that?
Oh we also beat Port in the first final and face the dawks in the prelim to play the Swans in the Grannie (and win, duh).

 

[The rabbi]

I have us finishing second to the Swans winning every game by 100 points to end the year with a percentage of 155%.
Bias? Whats that?
Oh we also beat Port in the first final and face the dawks in the prelim to play the Swans in the Grannie (and win, duh).

I often dream about having a bed full of Victoria's Secret models.

 

[year of the cat]

I often dream about having a bed full of Victoria's Secret models.

I'm more realistic. Only one for me.

 

[Micksy]

Supporters are supposed to be optimistic.

And members are pessimistic.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Don't forget, because our % is so low (lol@the idiots that think it doesn't count), we pretty much have to win 1 extra game to any other team atm.

Despite Port and Hawks losses, a win tomorrow will still leave us in 5th with our woeful %.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

the funny thing about that though, while those teams with superior % have been exerting all that energy on a weekly basis by winning games by 10 goals every 2nd or 3rd week, they have actually lost the same amount of games as ourselves (god forbid we fall short tomorrow). So what happens when those teams really hit some shitty form?
What if Sydney and Port suffer a few more critical injuries?
I mean let's be brutally honest, Geelong can only go up from here, right? We have been belted by 100, scraped over the lines against really mediocre sides but after all that, to be equal 4th is pretty ironic given there's another eight matches still to be played.

As long as we keep winning and don't drop games re: the Lions one last year or Crows, then we have a chance.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I have us finishing second to the Swans winning every game by 100 points to end the year with a percentage of 155%.
Bias? Whats that?
Oh we also beat Port in the first final and face the dawks in the prelim to play the Swans in the Grannie (and win, duh).

So do I!! So it must be true!!!

 

[BotsMaster]

Despite Port and Hawks losses, a win tomorrow will still leave us in 5th with our woeful %.

What if we win by 100+ points?

 

[Teriyakicat]

As long as we keep winning and don't drop games re: the Lions one last year or Crows, then we have a chance.

In 2010, we lost R13, R16 and R19.
In 2011, we lost R15, R16 and R23
In 2012, we lost R13, R16 and R20
In 2013, we lost R13, R17 and R19.

I know we're laughing at the Hawks and Port right now but I feel that we are in great danger ourselves this weekend and over the next few weeks, in fact, of dropping our own "easy games"

 

[Vdubs]

In 2010, we lost R13, R16 and R19.
In 2011, we lost R15, R16 and R23
In 2012, we lost R13, R16 and R20
In 2013, we lost R13, R17 and R19.

I know we're laughing at the Hawks and Port right now but I feel that we are in great danger ourselves this weekend and over the next few weeks, in fact, of dropping our own "easy games"

Scary.
In 2011, we were 14-0 before we lost rd 15 though.

 

[Vdubs]

What if we win by 100+ points?

It'd help. Don't count on it though. We are still a little unsettled for wins like that. I'd be happy with 1 point.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Scary.
In 2011, we were 14-0 before we lost rd 15 though.

But then we dropped winnable games against Essendon and the Eagles (away).
My main point was that there is a block of games here, in the second half of the season, in which we have been known to play ordinary footy- winning most but sometimes dropping some "unlosable" games, eg the Brisbane and Adelaide games last season

 

[Teriyakicat]

It gets worse. The R 13 losses were after the mid-year bye. The R23 loss to Sydney in 2011 came after our bye late in the season.

Geelong need less byes, not more!

 

[Vdubs]

But then we dropped winnable games against Essendon and the Eagles (away).
My main point was that there is a block of games here, in the second half of the season, in which we have been known to play ordinary footy- winning most but sometimes dropping some "unlosable" games, eg the Brisbane and Adelaide games last season

Totally agree. I'm just adding that in 2011, those losses were almost necessary, but here we are with 4 losses already.

 

[catstorm]

Just did a ladder predictor on the AFL site and got

1st: Sydney 18 wins
2nd: Freo 18 Wins
3rd: North 16 wins ( Couldn't believe it myself to be honest)
4th: Geelong 16 wins
5th: Hawthorn 15 wins
6th: Gold Coast 15 wins
7th: Port 14 wins
8th: Collingwood 14 wins

9th: Adelaide 13 Wins

I didn't do margins so those margins between 1-2 and 3-4 might of changed if i had, they were pretty close but Hawthorn and Port have way better % then GC or Collingwood.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Totally agree. I'm just adding that in 2011, those losses were almost necessary, but here we are with 4 losses already.

I think the evenness of the comp this year means that our 4 losses to date don't leave us in dire straits, whereas it might've been different in past years. What happens from here on in is important, though - we really can't afford to drop more than one more game, unless teams above us are also dropping games....which appears very likely. I feel that, if any team is going to win a GF from 5th position or so, this year is more likely than other years. I do, however, believe that the week off after the Qualifying Finals is a huge advantage in finals.

 

[SuperCats9]

You've got to finish top 2, it's crucial.

IF we can manage to win every game from here on we should grab a top 2 spot, but I can't see that happening, we will most likely lose another 2, possibly 3.

A realistic finish for us is anywhere between 4-6th.