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Prediction Ladder Predictor

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We most likely finish 3rd (if hawks beat lions) or 5th (if lions beat hawks) assuming we beat Melbourne.
Finishing 3rd and getting the cats at the MCG is a result we all would have been stoked with at the start of the year.
We were as dominant as a team could be last night without getting the win.

Bobby and Howe back in against the dee's.

I'm bullish we still have a real shot at the flag this year.
 
Call me crazy but it’s not a disaster if we finish 5th. With the pre finals bye, it’s shown of late that building momentum over finals can be better than losing your qualifying final and playing a team with momentum.

If we can’t finish 3rd, I’d love to get Freo at the G in the first elimination final and go from there.
 
Peters_Nuts said:
Call me crazy but it’s not a disaster if we finish 5th. With the pre finals bye, it’s shown of late that building momentum over finals can be better than losing your qualifying final and playing a team with momentum.

If we can’t finish 3rd, I’d love to get Freo at the G in the first elimination final and go from there.
Click to expand...
Do you think they have any hope of beating the Dogs at Marvel Stadium? I don't.
 

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Peters_Nuts said:
We’ll play them at the G if we beat Melbourne, so yes we’ll beat them.
Click to expand...
But I just explained why it's almost impossible to suggest we could play the Dockers at the G in an elimination final or any other kind of final. They are highly unlikely to beat the Dogs at Marvel Stadium.
 
domus said:
But I just explained why it's almost impossible to suggest we could play the Dockers at the G in an elimination final or any other kind of final. They are highly unlikely to beat the Dogs at Marvel Stadium.
Click to expand...
Oh sorry! I read that as you don’t think we’ll beat them at Marvel if we played them in finals. My mistake (still seeing red from last night).

Agree it’s unlikely but would be an ideal outcome for us.
 
The ladder is bonkers.
We can wind up anywhere between 3-8th by the look of it.
Thank god we at least make finals, least all is not lost.
We are at least able to compete anywhere on our best.
Must admit wouldn’t be a fan of playing at shit Engie stadium thou, so please avoid that.
 
domus said:
Do you think they have any hope of beating the Dogs at Marvel Stadium? I don't.
Click to expand...
I think Freo win
Freo have structure and method, and a very good formline over 3 months
They will be Top 4 next year
Dogs gameplan isnt up to scratch, they havent been able to defend the ground for a decade
 
This may have been written above, sorry haven’t read all the way back but I think there are four ways we can finish top 4, all assuming we win against Melbourne:
  • Hawks beat Brisbane, we win and percentage differential gets us ahead of Dawks
  • Geelong lose to Sydney (I think will happen) and to North (won’t).
  • Suns lose to Port
  • Suns don’t make up the percentage differential to us (would assume we win well against the Dees).
 
I think the thing that will kill us is that Gold Coast will know how much they need to beat Essendon by to make the top4, and an Essendon who will arguably not be fielding their full side
 
magpiemaniac44 said:
I think the thing that will kill us is that Gold Coast will know how much they need to beat Essendon by to make the top4, and an Essendon who will arguably not be fielding their full side
Click to expand...

Has any of your maths peeps done the math? Let's assume we beat dees by 4 goals 100-76. What does GC have to do to better our percentage. Can anyone give us an idea of what we need to do / GC not do?
 
BoneBones said:
Has any of your maths peeps done the math? Let's assume we beat dees by 4 goals 100-76. What does GC have to do to better our percentage. Can anyone give us an idea of what we need to do / GC not do?
Click to expand...

If we won by 20 points, GC would have to beat both team by 70 (in total) to overtake us.

Every extra goal we win by, GC have to score 8 points
 

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PiCkLeJuiCe said:
If we won by 20 points, GC would have to beat both team by 70 (in total) to overtake us.
Click to expand...
Nice thank you. That seems like we can actually achieve 4th. Port will play with some heart to send Hinkley off so there's no more than a 20 point victory there. Which leaves GC having to beat bombers by 50 which is never easy. Assuming we win by 20!
 
BoneBones said:
Has any of your maths peeps done the math? Let's assume we beat dees by 4 goals 100-76. What does GC have to do to better our percentage. Can anyone give us an idea of what we need to do / GC not do?
Click to expand...
This is assuming the losing teams score around 60 points, which is probably reasonable. The equation only alters by a point or two if someone scores a bit more or less than that.

Pies winning marginGC combined margin required to overtake
1054
2065
3075
4086
5097
60108
70118
80129
90140
 
BoneBones said:
Has any of your maths peeps done the math? Let's assume we beat dees by 4 goals 100-76. What does GC have to do to better our percentage. Can anyone give us an idea of what we need to do / GC not do?
Click to expand...
The Gold Coast scenario was posted below, and if us and Hawthorn are tied on points after next round, it likely comes down to who wins their game by more as our percentages are essentially equal

Eg
If we beat Melbourne by roughly 10 points, we'd need Hawthorn to win by roughly 1-10, as Brisbane would overtake us if they win, and Hawthorn would overtake us if they win by more than roughly 10 points in this scenario
 
Basically it seems you can throw a blanket over Collingwood Gold Coast and Hawthorn for fourth fifth and sixth. I think the Giants are a bit far back and the Dockers are miles back and will be more interested in just winning to make the eight.

So we need to stay ahead of two of them on percentage to retain the double chance… and with the hawks playing Brissy in Brissy they will be up against it to just win let alone claw back percentage

Percentage-wise this weekend has worked out as well as it could for Collingwood without actually winning the game.

Still in it. Amazingly. Just need to approach the Dees with a big score being the objective. And then watch the rest of the weekend pan out watching the live ladder closely.

suns however have two easy games. They are most likely to make the four. Hoping port and Essendon make them work hard… even better if they win a game!

It might come down to the “ closing round” game on the Wednesday night to see if we made top four
 
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Need to come out against the Dees like we did in round 24 last season where we needed to win by like 120 to give us a chance.

If we come out like we did last night, we should beat them comfortably. The Dees have tapped out.
 

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