Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches

[fpm84]

Go Blues, Go Swans

 

[SuperVolley11]

It never is comfortable
That's the good thing about the final 8 system
To win it you have to beat 3 of the best teams. It's always richly deserved

Not always. Eagles only had to beat the pies and demons in 2018.

 

[Mr Meow]

It never is comfortable
That's the good thing about the final 8 system
To win it you have to beat 3 of the best teams. It's always richly deserved

It's all on a scale though. None are undeserved but some paths are easier than others.

An MCG tenant playing finals (especially the GF) against interstate teams or Geelong is a preferable path. Hawthorn 2013, Hawthorn 2014, Richmond 2017, Richmond 2019. Moreso if you nab a G match as the lower ranked team.

Sometimes you'll avoid one or two of the best three teams if other results go your way (West Coast 2018).

Geelong's best case scenario is playing interstate teams or Marvel tenants.

Sometimes the field is weak. I'd argue that this is currently the case. Getting two interstate teams and then Melbourne would match the 2020 run where we had one tough road trip (Port), one easier one (Lions finals chokers) and played two MCG tenants at neutral grounds.

 

[And_ROOS]

It's all on a scale though. None are undeserved but some paths are easier than others.

An MCG tenant playing finals (especially the GF) against interstate teams or Geelong is a preferable path. Hawthorn 2013, Hawthorn 2014, Richmond 2017, Richmond 2019. Moreso if you nab a G match as the lower ranked team.

Sometimes you'll avoid one or two of the best three teams if other results go your way (West Coast 2018).

Geelong's best case scenario is playing interstate teams or Marvel tenants.

Sometimes the field is weak. I'd argue that this is currently the case. Getting two interstate teams and then Melbourne would match the 2020 run where we had one tough road trip (Port), one easier one (Lions finals chokers) and played two MCG tenants at neutral grounds.

Current ladder has us with a home final against Sydney. Of all the interstate clubs, that is by far the hardest. Whats worst, is I know people will say "to win the flag you have to beat the best teams" but theres legitimately the chance we beat Sydney at the MCG, and then meet them there again in a GF where we will have played our hand.

That said, I expect a Sydney win, and we will have Freo at the MCG instead. Still a hard match up but Sydney match up better on us than Fremantle.

 

[Toe Poke]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
First qualifying final
Geelong v Collingwood at the MCG, 4.35pm AEST

https://www.afl.com.au/news/827656/the-finals-are-here-who-plays-who-week-one-fixture-revealed

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
Second elimination final
Brisbane v Richmond at The Gabba, 7.20pm AEST

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
Second qualifying final
Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG, 7.50pm AEST

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
First elimination final
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, 6.10pm AWST

(if Geelong loses, then they play the winner of Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs)

 

[Wellsy35]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
First qualifying final
Geelong v Collingwood at the MCG, 4.35pm AEST

https://www.afl.com.au/news/827656/the-finals-are-here-who-plays-who-week-one-fixture-revealed

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
Second elimination final
Brisbane v Richmond at The Gabba, 7.20pm AEST

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
Second qualifying final
Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG, 7.50pm AEST

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
First elimination final
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, 6.10pm AWST

(if Geelong loses, then they play the winner of Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs)

So if we win the QF, our prelim opponents are one of Melbourne, Sydney (whoever loses), Brisbane or Richmond (if either win the semi).

If we lose the QF, our prelim opponents are the winner of Melbourne - Sydney, having gone through Freo or the Dogs.

So looks like we're nearly guaranteed to get one of Melbourne/Sydney along the way, likely both.

Assuming Richmond beat the Lions and we beat the Pies, I'd be comfortable with either of Melbourne or Sydney at the G, in the prelim or the GF. Sydney have only played there twice so far this year (small win against Melb, loss against Dons), and considering we were able to nullify Melbourne's interceptors at KP, I'd be confident we could do the same on a wider ground. I don't think my heart rate would go over 70 with a Brisbane prelim.

Although logic would have us going in as outright favourites, a Tigers prelim would have me nervous...

 

[Mr Meow]

So if we win the QF, our prelim opponents are one of Melbourne, Sydney (whoever loses), Brisbane or Richmond (if either win the semi).

If we lose the QF, our prelim opponents are the winner of Melbourne - Sydney, having gone through Freo or the Dogs.

So looks like we're nearly guaranteed to get one of Melbourne/Sydney along the way, likely both.

Assuming Richmond beat the Lions and we beat the Pies, I'd be comfortable with either of Melbourne or Sydney at the G, in the prelim or the GF. Sydney have only played there twice so far this year (small win against Melb, loss against Dons), and considering we were able to nullify Melbourne's interceptors at KP, I'd be confident we could do the same on a wider ground. I don't think my heart rate would go over 70 with a Brisbane prelim.

Although logic would have us going in as outright favourites, a Tigers prelim would have me nervous...

Spot on. It's very likely to be Collingwood, Sydney and Melbourne (order variable, but I'd say Sydney prelim) if we are good enough. I think we are. Should best Collingwood and Sydney. Melbourne is a toss of the coin.

 

[Gazzathegoat]

Spot on. It's very likely to be Collingwood, Sydney and Melbourne (order variable, but I'd say Sydney prelim) if we are good enough. I think we are. Should best Collingwood and Sydney. Melbourne is a toss of the coin.

It's really set up for a Geelong (touch wood) v Melbourne grand final now all things considered.

Richmond is clearly the biggest smokey and could cause some serious damage come September. If we end up playing them in the prelim they will have had to beat Brisbane (Away) and then Sydney (away) before traveling back to Melbourne to play us at their beloved MCG.

Could Richmond pull a Collingwood of 2018? Very possible.

It's ours to lose.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The good news is we are well set up not to have to leave the G all finals series.

 

[Kitcat]

It's really set up for a Geelong (touch wood) v Melbourne grand final now all things considered.

Richmond is clearly the biggest smokey and could cause some serious damage come September. If we end up playing them in the prelim they will have had to beat Brisbane (Away) and then Sydney (away) before traveling back to Melbourne to play us at their beloved MCG.

Could Richmond pull a Collingwood of 2018? Very possible.

It's ours to lose.

What does "It's ours to lose" mean? We haven't played anyone in the top 7 since Melbourne in Round 17.

 

[fpm84]

What does "It's ours to lose" mean? We haven't played anyone in the top 7 since Melbourne in Round 17.

Why top 7 and not top 8? Both Bulldogs (round 20) and St Kilda (round 21) were in the top 8 when we played them and the Dogs are now finalists. Carlton were 7th when we played them (round 18) and only slipped out of finals yesterday.

 

[Kitcat]

Why top 7 and not top 8? Both Bulldogs (round 20) and St Kilda (round 21) were in the top 8 when we played them and the Dogs are now finalists. Carlton were 7th when we played them (round 18) and only slipped out of finals yesterday.

Because the cream floats to the top and Carlton and St Kilda failed under the pressure to make the 8. I will put it another way - we haven't played any of the teams who made the final 4 since Round 17, so we haven't been tested recently to see how well we play against the best, hence my query on how it can be ours to lose.