Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches

[Mr Meow]

I want Collingwood in week 1.

Get the monkey off the back regarding MCG final against MCG tenant. Winning that would send the belief through the roof. Why would we rather a soft QF then play the Pies in a prelim, for example? Or are some of us thinking our path is going to be Brisbane, Freo and Sydney or something?

Collingwood (QF) -> Brisbane (PF) -> Melbourne/Sydney (GF) is fine by me and semi-realistic.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I want Collingwood in week 1.

Get the monkey off the back regarding MCG final against MCG tenant. Winning that would send the belief through the roof. Why would we rather a soft QF then play the Pies in a prelim, for example? Or are some of us thinking our path is going to be Brisbane, Freo and Sydney or something?

Collingwood (QF) -> Brisbane (PF) -> Melbourne/Sydney (GF) is fine by me and semi-realistic.

It's not so much about fearing Collingwood as it is prefering other teams.

We've copped the rough end of the stick in just about every QF so far (Having to go to Adelaide twice, Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn on the MCG etc)

If we play our best football we have no reason to fear anybody, we're the best team in it. It would just be a nice change of pace to get an easy path to the GF for once. I can accept the KP circumstances (especially this year) but seeing as we're going to finish on top we'd like an actual 'home' final wouldn't we? That's why why you work so hard to finish on top in the first place.

 

[catstragic]

Fxxk knows why they think I might be interested in attending some right wing f sticks’ event!

Odds are you go into the "male 25+" category. They ain't super precise but you'll be in roughly the same demographic as the majority of his audience.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's not so much about fearing Collingwood as it is prefering other teams.

We've copped the rough end of the stick in just about every QF so far (Having to go to Adelaide twice, Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn on the MCG etc)

If we play our best football we have no reason to fear anybody, we're the best team in it. It would just be a nice change of pace to get an easy path to the GF for once. I can accept the KP circumstances (especially this year) but seeing as we're going to finish on top we'd like an actual 'home' final wouldn't we? That's why why you work so hard to finish on top in the first place.

Our record at the G is about as good as it's been since at least 2013 I reckon. Our game plan + personnel are finally suited to playing there. I've had the MCG tenant dread in previous years but I don't have it for this one. Playing a team with a % of around 107 is nice - noisy MCG crowds are something any Geelong team advancing to the GF have had to deal with. If we're especially lucky, we get an interstate team on the big dance. There isn't an Eagles 92 or 94 awaiting.

Rip the bandaid off early I say - at least we get a second chance if we fail unlike leaving it to a prelim/GF.

 

[kickazz]

Have mentioned it in another thread, but regarding a hostile MCG crowd in an intense game - I recon that 3rd quarter against Port a couple of weeks ago was as good a trial as we are going to get and we came out of it ok.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Have mentioned it in another thread, but regarding a hostile MCG crowd in an intense game - I recon that 3rd quarter against Port a couple of weeks ago was as good a trial as we are going to get and we came out of it ok.

Same with the Tigers game in that last quarter a few weeks ago.

 

[D BRIDGE]

We will play Collingwood week 1

Nothing better than finishing top to claim the honor of playing a team on their home deck.

We will burst their bubble at any ground though, but I'd prefer the Lions at the G.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Nothing better than finishing top to claim the honor of playing a team on their home deck.

We will burst their bubble at any ground though, but I'd prefer the Lions at the G.

Yeah I know.
It sucks but it’s the same old argument.
Nothing we can do about it. May as well embrace it.

 

[JohnZ]

Yeah I know.
It sucks but it’s the same old argument.
Nothing we can do about it. May as well embrace it.

Next year, 40k at KP, make it happen.

This year, the G will do.

 

[And_ROOS]

Having a play around on the ladder predictor and there are only a few matches I struggled to pick a winner.
Went with Swans at home over Collingwood. That could legitimately be anything.

And went Brisbane at home over Melbourne. Thats the other one where if either team wins I will not be surprised.

So based on those 2 results, and the other results being predictable on ladder/form;
1. Cats
2. Swans
3. Lions
4. Pies
5. Dockers
6. Demons
7. Tigers
8. Bulldogs

That would be huge if the ladder ends like that, guaranteed to see one of Demons/Tigers eliminated first week of finals. Dogs could be up for an upset too over Freo.

That said, swap the Pies/Swans result, and the Demons/Lions result and we get;
1. Cats
2. Pies
3. Demons
4. Dockers
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

I feel like the above are the two likeliest ladders to happen. But all it takes is an upset here or there from Blues over Dees/Pies, or Saints over anyone, and Essendon over Richmond, and it completely *s everything.

The only certainty I have is we will finish top two. No chance we lose both games, maybe the Suns match but then not the Eagles at home. Feels like WCE will put people in for early surgery for that game and send a young team over.
The only other thing I am confident of is that Sydney will finish top 4. Can't see them losing the matches they need to, and then other results going against them. Think they will beat Pies this week by 15ish.

 

[Jemaine]

Same with the Tigers game in that last quarter a few weeks ago.

That was a Saturday afternoon game though, there were actual Cats fans there.

Won't happen on a Friday night which a 1v 4 Cats vs Pies game would be slotted.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

That was a Saturday afternoon game though, there were actual Cats fans there.

Won't happen on a Friday night which a 1v 4 Cats vs Pies game would be slotted.

We will just have to deal with it.

Premiership teams deal with this and I suspect we are in a good position to do just that.

If we can't beat the Pies because of their supporters, then we probably aren't premiership material are we?

 

[standupand]

That was a Saturday afternoon game though, there were actual Cats fans there.

Won't happen on a Friday night which a 1v 4 Cats vs Pies game would be slotted.

It's been happening for decades. Remember '98 when we finished 2nd and got fixtured to play a 7th placed NM on a Friday night at their home ground? Lost and then had to go to Adelaide to play a knockout.

 

[00VicWard001]

Having a play around on the ladder predictor and there are only a few matches I struggled to pick a winner.
Went with Swans at home over Collingwood. That could legitimately be anything.

And went Brisbane at home over Melbourne. Thats the other one where if either team wins I will not be surprised.

So based on those 2 results, and the other results being predictable on ladder/form;
1. Cats
2. Swans
3. Lions
4. Pies
5. Dockers
6. Demons
7. Tigers
8. Bulldogs

That would be huge if the ladder ends like that, guaranteed to see one of Demons/Tigers eliminated first week of finals. Dogs could be up for an upset too over Freo.

That said, swap the Pies/Swans result, and the Demons/Lions result and we get;
1. Cats
2. Pies
3. Demons
4. Dockers
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

I feel like the above are the two likeliest ladders to happen. But all it takes is an upset here or there from Blues over Dees/Pies, or Saints over anyone, and Essendon over Richmond, and it completely *s everything.

The only certainty I have is we will finish top two. No chance we lose both games, maybe the Suns match but then not the Eagles at home. Feels like WCE will put people in for early surgery for that game and send a young team over.
The only other thing I am confident of is that Sydney will finish top 4. Can't see them losing the matches they need to, and then other results going against them. Think they will beat Pies this week by 15ish.

Thaanks,

this made me curious about the alternative combinations.

So as you pointed out the first two are as below:

1. Swans beat Collingwood. Brisbane beat Melbourne.

1. Geelong
2. Sydney
3. Brisbane
4. Collingwood
5. Fremantle
6. Melbourne
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

2. Collingwood beats Swans. Melbourne beats Brisbane.

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Melbourne
4. Fremantle
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

The second two are as below:

3. Swans beat Collingwood. Melbourne beat Brisbane.

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. Fremantle
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

4. Collingwood beats Swans. Brisbane beat Melbourne

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Brisbane
4. Fremantle
5. Melbourne
6. Sydney
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

Looks like it's likely (based on all higher seeds winning in all games - and any of the above 4 combinations happening for the Swans/Pies and Lions/Demons matches) that we will play either Collingwood of Fremantle in the first week.

Our four main contenders are as follows.

Sydney could play Brisbane, Richmond, Melbourne or the Bulldogs.

Collingwood could play Geelong (2x), Melbourne or Brisbane.

Melbourne could play Collingwood, Richmond, Sydney or the Bulldogs

Brisbane could play Sydney, Richmond (2x) and Collingwood

 

[allrighty]

I gave this a like for all the hard work put into this

I gave you a like for thinking like me

 

[And_ROOS]

Thaanks,

this made me curious about the alternative combinations.

So as you pointed out the first two are as below:

1. Swans beat Collingwood. Brisbane beat Melbourne.

1. Geelong
2. Sydney
3. Brisbane
4. Collingwood
5. Fremantle
6. Melbourne
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

2. Collingwood beats Swans. Melbourne beats Brisbane.

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Melbourne
4. Fremantle
5. Sydney
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

The second two are as below:

3. Swans beat Collingwood. Melbourne beat Brisbane.

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. Fremantle
6. Brisbane
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

4. Collingwood beats Swans. Brisbane beat Melbourne

1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Brisbane
4. Fremantle
5. Melbourne
6. Sydney
7. Richmond
8. Bulldogs

Looks like it's likely (based on all higher seeds winning in all games - and any of the above 4 combinations happening for the Swans/Pies and Lions/Demons matches) that we will play either Collingwood of Fremantle in the first week.

Our four main contenders are as follows.

Sydney could play Brisbane, Richmond, Melbourne or the Bulldogs.

Collingwood could play Geelong (2x), Melbourne or Brisbane.

Melbourne could play Collingwood, Richmond, Sydney or the Bulldogs

Brisbane could play Sydney, Richmond (2x) and Collingwood

I still feel Carlton have an upset in them somewhere. Either they upset the Dees, upset the Pies, or they upset their fan base getting smashed the next two weeks

 

[TEDDY24INC]

It's been happening for decades. Remember '98 when we finished 2nd and got fixtured to play a 7th placed NM on a Friday night at their home ground? Lost and then had to go to Adelaide to play a knockout.

That was 97 and extraordinarily fixtured on a Sunday night

 

[jim boy]

That was 97 and extraordinarily fixtured on a Sunday night

Rescheduled from the original day time slot due to the funeral of princess Diana!! If it had been played at the scheduled time it would have been during the day and in dry weather, not at night and in slippery conditions, both of which heavily favored the roos

 

[juzcat]

Have no editorial control over that at all?

None. In fact user has more control. Only reason for Nick Farage ads is person did a Google search on it. Try it yourself, search for any large ecommerce item on google, click on it and likely it will appear as an advert in Bigfooty or Instagram

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[standupand]

That was 97 and extraordinarily fixtured on a Sunday night

Cheers, yes you're right. For some reason I thought it was Friday night. Back then NM played many games at night - more than other sides - so it was a big advantage.

 

[Jemaine]

Rescheduled from the original day time slot due to the funeral of princess Diana!! If it had been played at the scheduled time it would have been during the day and in dry weather, not at night and in slippery conditions, both of which heavily favored the roos

Wow, I didn't realise this was why. I was in year 12 at the time (went to the game) and have hated the fact that Sunday night fixture ended up leading to the Leigh Colbert mark that wasn't paid, costing us a flag IMO. Jeez 25 years later just thinking about the butterfly effect that essentially ended up having on all of our lives is bananas.

 

[Toe Poke]

But what if Geelong wins one game?

If Geelong wins only one of its two remaining matches, then only Collingwood can overtake it. But as mentioned, this would require some massive margins. Almost as massive as Massive Merv from Moorabbin.

Just doing some maths to see what needs to happen in order for Collingwood to overtake Geelong for 1st position.

Collingwood has two matches remaining: Sydney at SCG on Sunday, then Carlton at MCG next weekend.
Geelong's one remaining match is against West Coast at Kardinia Park next weekend.

Across those three remaining matches, it looks like there needs to be an average margin of approximately 160 points (in Collingwood's favour).

For example:

Collingwood

Collingwood currently FOR 1714 AGAINST 1612

Assume that their next two matches give the results of
Collingwood 185 Sydney 25
Collingwood 185 Carlton 25

then their new aggregates would be

FOR 2084 AGAINST 1662, with a percentage of 125.39%

Geelong

Geelong currently FOR 2015 AGAINST 1442

Assume the following result for the West Coast match
West Coast 185 Geelong 25

new aggregates would be

FOR 2040 AGAINST 1627, with a percentage of 125.38%

 

[AWOL]

So best result now is for the lions to beat the dees and for Carlton to beat the pies…

 

[CoolCat75]

Assuming Swans and Freo win.

Think Lions and Dees will just swap 3rd and 5th depending on who wins.

If Pies win, we play them (home game LOL).
If Pies lose, we play Freo


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[Pure_Ownage]

Coll or freo are odds on now (melb is thereotically possible but only if sydney lose).