Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches
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Kobe Gryant
Professional Quidditch Player
I'm on the fence with them personally.
I can understand the threat they pose but we've also seen the media beat up with every dynasty side who are no longer in their prime but still have enough quality to strike fear.
Hawthorn of '16 and a little bit in '18, Cats '12 and '14 etc...they all got the 'you wouldn't want to play them' talk based on past success, not what is currently being displayed and it amounted to nothing.
We'll wait and see. I really haven't seen them beat anybody that would give us any reason to fear them, but that could change after their week 1 performance.
Isaac Norm Smith
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Yeah that's all very reasonable.
Isaac Norm Smith
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Is it just me or have they flown under the radar? Maybe just me. They're a threat for sure.
I would be pretty comfortable playing them on the G though.
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If we could get some tasty bulldogs 16 umpiring that would be good.
So many scenarios this weekend but in my mind the most likely 2 are either Brisbane win/Collingwood win, or Melbourne win/Collingwood win.
A Brisbane/Collingwood win gives us;
Geelong V Collingwood
Sydney V Brisbane
Freo V Bulldogs
Melbourne V Richmond
These aren't as straight forward as everyone thinks.
We would have a Collingwood team, who on paper we should beat, but they have had a knack of pulling out bullshit results, and they would have an advantage at the MCG, possibly no Cameron for us, and they would have more fans there. I still think we win, its just not the foregone conclusion some think.
Brisbane beat Sydney at the SCG earlier this season with Franklin kicking 6. Brisbane also have a horrendous finals record. But bad finals records have to end eventually and Brisbane have the right team to beat Sydney.
Freo would beat the Bulldogs, and we would see the back of either Melbourne or Richmond. I think in that game Melbourne would win, but not without a massive scare from a Tigers team that probably gets Martin back.
If Melbourne beat the Lions, only 2 games change.
Sydney would host Melbourne in a QF at the SCG and I would be tipping a Sydney win but it would be very close.
In the other game, I think Richmond might actually beat Brisbane. Its at the Gabba but I think the choke would be on.
But if I had my way, I would love Pies/Blues to end in a draw, then we would get an EF between Collingwood and Richmond where you would have 100k ferals going absolutely mental for 2 hours.
A Brisbane/Collingwood win gives us;
Geelong V Collingwood
Sydney V Brisbane
Freo V Bulldogs
Melbourne V Richmond
These aren't as straight forward as everyone thinks.
We would have a Collingwood team, who on paper we should beat, but they have had a knack of pulling out bullshit results, and they would have an advantage at the MCG, possibly no Cameron for us, and they would have more fans there. I still think we win, its just not the foregone conclusion some think.
Brisbane beat Sydney at the SCG earlier this season with Franklin kicking 6. Brisbane also have a horrendous finals record. But bad finals records have to end eventually and Brisbane have the right team to beat Sydney.
Freo would beat the Bulldogs, and we would see the back of either Melbourne or Richmond. I think in that game Melbourne would win, but not without a massive scare from a Tigers team that probably gets Martin back.
If Melbourne beat the Lions, only 2 games change.
Sydney would host Melbourne in a QF at the SCG and I would be tipping a Sydney win but it would be very close.
In the other game, I think Richmond might actually beat Brisbane. Its at the Gabba but I think the choke would be on.
But if I had my way, I would love Pies/Blues to end in a draw, then we would get an EF between Collingwood and Richmond where you would have 100k ferals going absolutely mental for 2 hours.
I have the Blues and Lions winning this week which set up a Freo QF and a Lions PF - would take that in a heart beat.
So important to win our QF
That’s my tip as well F2G. Reckon the Blues will be fired up.
CatToTheFuture
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Dees are not in great form. I couldn't call it
CatToTheFuture
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Sydney are making me nervous
Gazzathegoat
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If Brisbane beat Melbourne& and Carlton beat Collingwood. We play Fremantle in round 1 of the finals.
If Brisbane beat Melbourne & Collingwood beat Carlton. We play Collingwood in round 1 of the finals
If Melbourne beat Brisbane & Carlton beat Collingwood. We play Fremantle in round 1 of the finals.
If Melbourne beat Brisbane & Collingwood beat Carlton. We play Collingwood in round 1 of the finals ---> this would likely result in a Semi-Final between Melbourne and Richmond with Geelong versing the winner in the prelim.
Best case scenario: Brisbane beat Melbourne this week. This pushes Melbourne to 6th place and will have to play Richmond in the Semi-Final. The winner of Richmond and Melbourne will then have to travel to Sydney or Brisbane to play the loser of their Semi-Final. Geelong will then play the winner of this final (Either Brisbane or Sydney @ THE MCG or Melbourne after traveling back from Brisbane/Sydney. This scenario leaves the winner of the Brisbane / Sydney semi-final in a very strong position to win the flag as they will get a week off before playing a home prelim against either Collingwood or Freo.
If Brisbane beat Melbourne & Collingwood beat Carlton. We play Collingwood in round 1 of the finals
If Melbourne beat Brisbane & Carlton beat Collingwood. We play Fremantle in round 1 of the finals.
If Melbourne beat Brisbane & Collingwood beat Carlton. We play Collingwood in round 1 of the finals ---> this would likely result in a Semi-Final between Melbourne and Richmond with Geelong versing the winner in the prelim.
Best case scenario: Brisbane beat Melbourne this week. This pushes Melbourne to 6th place and will have to play Richmond in the Semi-Final. The winner of Richmond and Melbourne will then have to travel to Sydney or Brisbane to play the loser of their Semi-Final. Geelong will then play the winner of this final (Either Brisbane or Sydney @ THE MCG or Melbourne after traveling back from Brisbane/Sydney. This scenario leaves the winner of the Brisbane / Sydney semi-final in a very strong position to win the flag as they will get a week off before playing a home prelim against either Collingwood or Freo.
Sydney are a side that can play well at any ground any time, and they have beat us at home when no side could, they will play in the GF having 2 home finals
catempire
Premium Platinum
Much prefer Carlton beat Collingwood giving us Freo in week 1. Then let everyone else sort themselves out.
Carlton and Brisbane winning would make my week.
standupand
Club Legend
They beat us convincingly at the SCG. It was Freo who were the only side to knock us off at home.
I said it wrong as i am talking all time, Sydney have beaten us at home when no other side can a few times,
standupand
Club Legend
Yes, they did last year and a few other times in the past decade.
I notice they haven't played many matches at the MCG, but I think they knocked the dees off there earlier in the year.
My impression of them is a bit like we were in 2004. They've built an impressive squad now, but they're maybe two-three years off really dominating.
oh god that's just music to my ears
Kobe Gryant
Professional Quidditch Player
That's fair, but we're a completely different team right now and so are they.
They were red hot, and we were still struggling to get the new gameplan in check (it was so bad that we reverted back to the old style the next week against GWS)
I'd like the proposition of playing a young, inexperienced Freo side on the MCG. Gets us a 'home' ground advantage for once, and maybe even gets us the Saturday timeslot.
I'll back us against anybody, but I'd be particularly confident playing them week one. We're due a break for once. Everyone else seems to get them.
Freo are also not very good. I know that sounds arrogant because any team on their day can lift. However their median performance level this season is arguably the lowest of any team in the 8. A couple of corkers early in the season mask that a little.
The only downside is likely a tougher prelim. You could argue that getting Collingwood and passing that test with flying colours, to then meet Brisbane in a prelim - is preferable.
You have to be able to beat anybody but it'd be nice to not get the worst possible route - Collingwood, Melbourne and Sydney.
Round 1 Swans v Giants was easily game of the round for me but Swans form all way through, and in my opinion, after the bye was shaky and mostly had us with slow starts and bursts of scoring in 2nd half.
I think Swans since and including the Bombers game in Round 16 (which we lost) was when we starting to gel and started our actual hot form IMO. This also coincided with us starting fast and having alot of scoring shots due to forward pressure though often inaccurate
After saying that i decided to go back and compare Swans last 7 and Cats to see how it looks roughly and for 1st quarter scoring shots its average of 8.7 to 7.1 (swans/Cats), overall scoring shots last 7 weeks its 29.4 to 27 (swan/cats), average 1st quarter scores 34 to 27
In the end after all of that, i can safely deduce that ive helped waste 15 minutes on a Friday arvo before end of work and im none the wiser as to whether these 'stats' back up my feeling that its going to be Swans/Cats grand final and a ripper at that
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- #146
This is all based on the assumption that Fremantle defeats GWS, and Sydney defeats St Kilda. While both of these assumptions are likely (one bookmaker has Fremantle to win at $1.44 and Sydney to win at $1.35), they are not certain. An upset by GWS and/or St Kilda could change the calculus completely.
Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney all have a chance to finish fourth - it's not just Fremantle or Collingwood who can finish in that position.
Yep.
Factor in that the bookies odds are always a little less than true probability (so they make a profit) and with a litlle maths you can see the chances of Freo AND Sydney both winning are about 50/50 or even slightly worse.
Correct.
I remember in 2019 it was a real long shot to play Collingwood week 1, yet somehow we managed to draw them first up.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Melbourne will get sydney in a QF now. If sydney win by 50 + it will be at SCG otherwise MCG.
We will get either coll or freo (unless they both lose which is unlikely and would give us brisbane at the G). My tip is we get coll but we could get freo as carlton have everything to play for.
Richmond will get brisbane at GABBA unless carlton wins in which case they get collingwood in a huge elim final (they would prefer that as it keeps them in melb).
If coll and freo both win freo will get whichever of carlton or dogs finishes 8th (at optus).
To me the most likely finals are
QF1 geel vs coll mcg
QF2 syd vs melb scg
EF1 freo vs bulldogs optus
EF2 bris vs rich gabba
We will get either coll or freo (unless they both lose which is unlikely and would give us brisbane at the G). My tip is we get coll but we could get freo as carlton have everything to play for.
Richmond will get brisbane at GABBA unless carlton wins in which case they get collingwood in a huge elim final (they would prefer that as it keeps them in melb).
If coll and freo both win freo will get whichever of carlton or dogs finishes 8th (at optus).
To me the most likely finals are
QF1 geel vs coll mcg
QF2 syd vs melb scg
EF1 freo vs bulldogs optus
EF2 bris vs rich gabba
catempire
Premium Platinum
Yep. Go Blues.
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