Analysis Ladder / top4 scenarios based on remaining matches

[Mr Meow]

Melbourne will get sydney in a QF now. If sydney win by 50 + it will be at SCG otherwise MCG.

We will get either coll or freo (unless they both lose which is unlikely and would give us brisbane at the G). My tip is we get coll but we could get freo as carlton have everything to play for.

Richmond will get brisbane at GABBA unless carlton wins in which case they get collingwood in a huge elim final (they would prefer that as it keeps them in melb).

If coll and freo both win freo will get whichever of carlton or dogs finishes 8th (at optus).

To me the most likely finals are
QF1 geel vs coll mcg
QF2 syd vs melb scg
EF1 freo vs bulldogs optus
EF2 bris vs rich gabba

Carlton to beat Pies by a point, otherwise I agree. A possible road map would be:

QF: Geelong Vs Freo at the MCG
PF: Geelong Vs Sydney at the MCG
GF: Geelong Vs Melbourne at the MCG

No path to a premiership this season will be comfortable, but this would give us every chance.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yep. Go Blues.

Yeah same for me. I would prefer freo to coll in week one simply because freo are a young group and dont have much experience playing at the G but i think we can beat either of them.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Carlton to beat Pies by a point, otherwise I agree. A possible road map would be:

QF: Geelong Vs Freo at the MCG
PF: Geelong Vs Sydney at the MCG
GF: Geelong Vs Melbourne at the MCG

No path to a premiership this season will be comfortable, but this would give us every chance.

Depends on the winner of syd vs melb. If syd beat melb as i think they can and we were to beat freo in week 1 then we get either melb coll or rich in a PF then probably sydney in GF. I agree we have a really good chance with that draw.

 

[Mr Meow]

Depends on the winner of syd vs melb. If syd beat melb as i think they can and we were to beat freo in week 1 then we get either melb coll or rich in a PF then probably sydney in GF. I agree we have a really good chance with that draw.

I think at the MCG Melbourne will reverse results from the Collingwood or Sydney H&A fixtures. I think both Geelong and Melbourne will get to the GF without losing in the QF.

Sydney or Collingwood could bring an upset of course. I can't see Freo doing it.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think at the MCG Melbourne will reverse results from the Collingwood or Sydney H&A fixtures. I think both Geelong and Melbourne will get to the GF without losing in the QF.

Sydney or Collingwood could bring an upset of course. I can't see Freo doing it.

Sydney are formidable especially at the SCG and they know exactly what margin they need to be saints by to get a home QF. I reckon melb lose qf win SF and then lose PF. But i do think the flag is a race in three between us melb and sydney.

 

[year of the cat]

Sydney are formidable especially at the SCG and they know exactly what margin they need to be saints by to get a home QF. I reckon melb lose qf win SF and then lose PF. But i do think the flag is a race in three between us melb and sydney.

You reckon Sydney will jump ahead of Melbourne today? How much do they need to beat the Saints by?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You reckon Sydney will jump ahead of Melbourne today? How much do they need to beat the Saints by?

Tomorrow 4.40 last game of the round.
Im not a great maths guy but im fairly sure a 50-60 point win (depending on how many points conceded) will make up the 2 %on melb and pass them. Saints dont have much to play for so swans should smash them.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

I don't trust Freo, wouldn't surprise me if they lose to GWS in Sydney.

I think Carlton beats the Pies if they play like they did against the Dee's last week.

So it could still be Lions. Unlikely, both Pies and Dockers lose, but possible. I just don't trust the Dockers outside of WA.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I don't trust Freo, wouldn't surprise me if they lose to GWS in Sydney.

I think Carlton beats the Pies if they play like they did against the Dee's last week.

So it could still be Lions. Unlikely, both Pies and Dockers lose, but possible. I just don't trust the Dockers outside of WA.

Lions would have Chris Scott salivating. They're a pathetic bunch, we'd back ourselves to be physical early and get it over with and focus on the prelim.

As I've said before I back us against anybody, but the Lions inspires a different level of confidence.

 

[Overhang]

I think the best thing for us would be
GWS beats Freo
Dogs beat Hawks (so that Carlton are actually playing for something)
Carl beat Pies.
Swans beat Saints but not enough to overtake Melb

Then it would be
QF Geelong vs Brisbane
QF Melb vs Sydney
EF Freo vs Richmond
EF Pies vs Carlton

SF Brisbane vs Pies
SF Sydney vs Freo

PF Geelong vs Sydney
PF Melb vs Collingwood

GF Geelong vs Melb

Geelong by 84 points

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Lions would have Chris Scott salivating. They're a pathetic bunch, we'd back ourselves to be physical early and get it over with and focus on the prelim.

As I've said before I back us against anybody, but the Lions inspires a different level of confidence.

Absolutely. When Jonathon Brown says hes embarrassed to be a Lions supporter, that says a lot.

I think it's a chance. Blues / Pies is as 50/50 as it gets and Freo just can't be trusted IMO. I think Freo will win but if GWS decide to have a crack and turn up, it could be interesting.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

So it's either Freo or Pies depending on the winner of Carlton/Pies game. Pies win and we vs them, Carlton win we play Freo.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So it's either Freo or Pies depending on the winner of Carlton/Pies game. Pies win and we vs them, Carlton win we play Freo.

Go blues

 

[Toe Poke]

Two matches remain to determine Geelong's opponent in the qualifying final: Carlton vs Collingwood at 3.20pm on Sunday, and St Kilda vs Sydney at 4.40pm on Sunday.

**********************************************************

If both Collingwood and Sydney win

Geelong 68 + 4 from West Coast match
Melbourne / Sydney 64
Collingwood 64
Fremantle 62
Brisbane 60

Then Geelong will play Collingwood in week 1.

**********************************************************

If both Carlton and St Kilda win

Geelong 68 + 4 from West Coast match
Melbourne 64
Fremantle 62
Sydney 60
Brisbane 60
Collingwood 60

Then Geelong will play Sydney in week 1 (assuming that St Kilda doesn't win by a big amount (about 100 points), which could push Sydney down to 5th below Brisbane).

**********************************************************

If Sydney wins and Carlton wins

Geelong 68 + 4 from West Coast match
Melbourne / Sydney 64
Fremantle 62
Brisbane 60
Collingwood 60

Then Geelong will play Fremantle in week 1

**********************************************************

If Collingwood wins and St Kilda wins

Geelong 68 + 4 from West Coast match
Melbourne 64
Collingwood 64
Fremantle 62
Sydney 60
Brisbane 60

Then Geelong will play Fremantle in week 1

**********************************************************

If there is a draw in either match

Then I haven't bothered to work out the ladder positions, because this post is already long enough

 

[Toe Poke]

So it's either Freo or Pies depending on the winner of Carlton/Pies game. Pies win and we vs them, Carlton win we play Freo.

This assumes a guaranteed win for Sydney against St Kilda. Although a St Kilda loss is likely, it's not definite.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

This assumes a guaranteed win for Sydney against St Kilda. Although a St Kilda loss is likely, it's not definite.

Yeah, I think that is the most unlikely result out of all of them so didn't factor it in.

 

[Macca180]

Geelong will beat Freo by 10 goals

 

[Romeoh1]

Don’t care who we play- have to beat them all to win the flag. Let’s win the first final and get the week off- sets us up. Be good to play all our finals at the G. We are good enough this year- bring it on.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Carlton to beat Pies by a point, otherwise I agree. A possible road map would be:

QF: Geelong Vs Freo at the MCG
PF: Geelong Vs Sydney at the MCG
GF: Geelong Vs Melbourne at the MCG

No path to a premiership this season will be comfortable, but this would give us every chance.

It never is comfortable
That's the good thing about the final 8 system
To win it you have to beat 3 of the best teams. It's always richly deserved

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I don't trust Freo, wouldn't surprise me if they lose to GWS in Sydney.

I think Carlton beats the Pies if they play like they did against the Dee's last week.

So it could still be Lions. Unlikely, both Pies and Dockers lose, but possible. I just don't trust the Dockers outside of WA.

They have actually been better on the road this year than at home.

They haven’t been great in WA..

 

[Overhang]

What a great way to end the season that the final 3 games determine the positions of 2nd to 8th

Barracking for the 2 upsets today

Saints to beat Sydney
Carlton to beat Pies

 

[Catman]

What a great way to end the season that the final 3 games determine the positions of 2nd to 8th

Barracking for the 2 upsets today

Saints to beat Sydney
Carlton to beat Pies

If that happens we play Sydney in the QF. Not sure I'm comfortable with that!

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If that happens we play Sydney in the QF. Not sure I'm comfortable with that!

Sydney will win i reckon. Just a matter of whether we get coll (if carl lose)or freo in the QF.

 

[Overhang]

If that happens we play Sydney in the QF. Not sure I'm comfortable with that!

I think I would prefer that to the Pies, not that I think the Pies are great or anything but they are capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat in finals on the G with their fanbase behind them. It also means Pies play Richmond in the EF and frankly seeing 1 of those 2 sides eliminated is always welcome.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

If that happens we play Sydney in the QF. Not sure I'm comfortable with that!

I am.