I had a bit of time today, so decided to nerd out and create a ladder based on results vs the final top 8. As teams haven't all played the same number of matches vs the finalists, I've sorted it by win percentage.
A couple of observations:
- The differing number of games played even among last year's top 6 (e.g. West Coast 8, Hawthorn 12) probably shows that weighting the fixture is not very useful, as team quality fluctuates significantly from year to year
- As with the season overall, Geelong is the only team to have a very strong percentage - here, most is due to the Richmond and West Coast games
- Brisbane had two poor early games - their recent record is better, and probably a better pointer to their finals form
- A few of Richmond's results are from when their injury crisis was deepest
- The Bulldogs' record suggests they'll be competitive
- Essendon's record is the poorest of the finalists, with GWS only slightly better
- As for my team, it's both satisfying and a bit frustrating to see we've been competitive. A couple of those close losses...
- Adelaide's record suggests they wouldn't have done well if they'd made it
- Melbourne is the only side not to have beaten any of the finalists
EDIT: updated to fix a couple of mistakes people pointed out. This pushes Freo up surprisingly high and Essendon even lower - Freo is the only non-finalist inside the 'eight' and Essendon the only finalist outside.
A couple of observations:
- The differing number of games played even among last year's top 6 (e.g. West Coast 8, Hawthorn 12) probably shows that weighting the fixture is not very useful, as team quality fluctuates significantly from year to year
- As with the season overall, Geelong is the only team to have a very strong percentage - here, most is due to the Richmond and West Coast games
- Brisbane had two poor early games - their recent record is better, and probably a better pointer to their finals form
- A few of Richmond's results are from when their injury crisis was deepest
- The Bulldogs' record suggests they'll be competitive
- Essendon's record is the poorest of the finalists, with GWS only slightly better
- As for my team, it's both satisfying and a bit frustrating to see we've been competitive. A couple of those close losses...
- Adelaide's record suggests they wouldn't have done well if they'd made it
- Melbourne is the only side not to have beaten any of the finalists
EDIT: updated to fix a couple of mistakes people pointed out. This pushes Freo up surprisingly high and Essendon even lower - Freo is the only non-finalist inside the 'eight' and Essendon the only finalist outside.
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