Analysis Ladder vs Top Eight

[philohk]

I did this last year for a bit of a diversion and was bored enough to do it again.

• Brisbane is either a very good side or flattered by their draw.
• Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went. Maybe a result of the Tigers' injury blip.
• On the other hand, Port's percentage is higher than only the Bulldogs'.
• Collingwood has a strong record, but a couple of costly losses have seen them get a Perth trip that might do them in.
• The Bulldogs are the clear outlier, a bit like Essendon last year (who were 2-7). Are they good enough to be there? 1-6 might suggest no, but 9-1 against non-finalists suggests yes. Another example of the value of consistently beating sides below you.
• Last year, Essendon was beaten easily in their EF, but they were eighth and playing a very good fifth side (West Coast) at an away ground. Bit harder to see that happening this week.
• The Dogs' record makes for the only difference between the 'eight' here and the real one, with them dropping out and GWS coming in.
• Only one side was winless against finalists last year (Melbourne at 0-11) - not sure how often there are two, but I'd guess not very.

Thoughts? Any surprises? Does this provide any predictive value for finals?

 

[catstorm]

Every single one of those 5 top 8 victories for Brisbane was at the Gabba, every single one.

The only top 8 matches Brisbane played away from the Gabba (Geelong and Richmond) they lost comprehensively.

 

[JasRulz63]

Every single one of those 5 top 8 victories for Brisbane was at the Gabba, every single one.

The only top 8 matches Brisbane played away from the Gabba (Geelong and Richmond) they lost comprehensively.

That's okay, I'm happy if win all our games at the Gabba and nowhere else for the next month or so.

 

[TedDougChris]

Dogs only have themselves to blame, should have beaten both Geelong and Port - but couldn’t get it done.

Hopefully they have learnt.

We played Pies and Saints early - they were very good, we were terrible.

This week will show if we have improved

 

[Greggy]

Would love to see what the vs top 8 ladder says historically about finals success.

 

[jsdsgn]

Would love to see what the vs top 8 ladder says historically about finals success.

I remember in 2018 we were criticised for not having beaten good sides.
Think we hadnt lost a game to a bottom 10 side but had only won 1 or 2 against the top 8.
We were competitive in all of those games though, and i didnt feel we couldnt do it.
We ultimately fell short but I wouldnt ever look too far into the H&A season - finals are a different ball game and Richmond have proved that 2 of the last 3 years, by having just decent seasons and then exploding come finals time.

 

[Football Tragic]

Perhaps the best measure at this stage of the year is percentage against the other top eight teams....that, and well, actual ladder position.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Wow, Essendon were even worse than North against the teams who made the finals!

 

[Power Raid]

I did this last year for a bit of a diversion and was bored enough to do it again.

View attachment 974263

• Brisbane is either a very good side or flattered by their draw.
• Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went. Maybe a result of the Tigers' injury blip.
• On the other hand, Port's percentage is higher than only the Bulldogs'.
• Collingwood has a strong record, but a couple of costly losses have seen them get a Perth trip that might do them in.
• The Bulldogs are the clear outlier, a bit like Essendon last year (who were 2-7). Are they good enough to be there? 1-6 might suggest no, but 9-1 against non-finalists suggests yes. Another example of the value of consistently beating sides below you.
• Last year, Essendon was beaten easily in their EF, but they were eighth and playing a very good fifth side (West Coast) at an away ground. Bit harder to see that happening this week.
• The Dogs' record makes for the only difference between the 'eight' here and the real one, with them dropping out and GWS coming in.
• Only one side was winless against finalists last year (Melbourne at 0-11) - not sure how often there are two, but I'd guess not very.

Thoughts? Any surprises? Does this provide any predictive value for finals?

can you do my footy tipping next year?

 

[philohk]

can you do my footy tipping next year?

Can you wait till after the season?

 

[Captain_Bender]

Gee West Coast really are flat track bullies aren't they

 

[Percel]

North are in good shape

 

[SloppyJoe]

Gee West Coast really are flat track bullies aren't they

FTBs is a bit of a stretch but our record sure doesn't stack up against how we went in 2018 (6-3 before finals).

A concern to be sure, particularly when our opponent this week has a marginally better record against the top 8.

 

[telsor]

I did this last year for a bit of a diversion and was bored enough to do it again.

View attachment 974263

• Brisbane is either a very good side or flattered by their draw.
• Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went. Maybe a result of the Tigers' injury blip.
• On the other hand, Port's percentage is higher than only the Bulldogs'.
• Collingwood has a strong record, but a couple of costly losses have seen them get a Perth trip that might do them in.
• The Bulldogs are the clear outlier, a bit like Essendon last year (who were 2-7). Are they good enough to be there? 1-6 might suggest no, but 9-1 against non-finalists suggests yes. Another example of the value of consistently beating sides below you.
• Last year, Essendon was beaten easily in their EF, but they were eighth and playing a very good fifth side (West Coast) at an away ground. Bit harder to see that happening this week.
• The Dogs' record makes for the only difference between the 'eight' here and the real one, with them dropping out and GWS coming in.
• Only one side was winless against finalists last year (Melbourne at 0-11) - not sure how often there are two, but I'd guess not very.

Thoughts? Any surprises? Does this provide any predictive value for finals?

AFL bias and corruption on display here!

All the teams that made finals only played 7 teams that made the 8, while those that missed out played 8!

The fix is clearly in!

 

[Rod Stroker]

So Essendon had a worse season than us. LOL!


And piss off, we're not losing pick 2!

 

[cherrypie]

Dogs only have themselves to blame, should have beaten both Geelong and Port - but couldn’t get it done.

Hopefully they have learnt.

We played Pies and Saints early - they were very good, we were terrible.

This week will show if we have improved

Also didn't help that we played Richmond-Port-Brisbane consecutively with short breaks in-between. All in different cities too, was a tough stretch

 

[philohk]

• Percentage is often said to be a strong indicator of a flag side, which suggests Richmond and Geelong will be hard to beat. But Geelong was the clear leader in this last year (136.5%, next best 109) and look how that went.

Well...

 

[WN123]

So Essendon had a worse season than us. LOL!


And piss off, we're not losing pick 2!

Last I checked we beat you and finished above you. We were s**t. You were shitter!

 

[PowerForGood]

Also didn't help that we played Richmond-Port-Brisbane consecutively with short breaks in-between. All in different cities too, was a tough stretch

What team DIDN'T have short breaks and tough stretches then?

You played in Brisbane on the Thursday, 6 days to the Wed, then 5 days break to us in Adelaide on the Monday.
We played in Adelaide on the Saturday, 5 days to the Thu in Brisbane, and then a 4 day break back to Adelaide on the aforementioned Monday.

Its just how it goes.

 

[PowerForGood]

AFL bias and corruption on display here!

All the teams that made finals only played 7 teams that made the 8, while those that missed out played 8!

The fix is clearly in!

I get the joke.... but interesting that 7 of the 8 finals teams, all achieved a better record in 7 games against the top 8, than the other teams with 8 games against the top 8.
Maybe we need a ladder against the bottom 10, to see how large that gap really is.

 

[cherrypie]

What team DIDN'T have short breaks and tough stretches then?

You played in Brisbane on the Thursday, 6 days to the Wed, then 5 days break to us in Adelaide on the Monday.
We played in Adelaide on the Saturday, 5 days to the Thu in Brisbane, and then a 4 day break back to Adelaide on the aforementioned Monday.

Its just how it goes.

I understand that, it's not a complaint. Just pointing out that we faced three very good sides in the difficult part of our fixture. Not like we had to play North or something in our most congested period

 

[telsor]

I get the joke.... but interesting that 7 of the 8 finals teams, all achieved a better record in 7 games against the top 8, than the other teams with 8 games against the top 8.
Maybe we need a ladder against the bottom 10, to see how large that gap really is.

Joke?

 

[WN123]

Also didn't help that we played Richmond-Port-Brisbane consecutively with short breaks in-between. All in different cities too, was a tough stretch

What’s that? 2 short breaks in a row? Essendon had 7 consecutive 5 day breaks. And games in Darwin, Adelaide, Qld, back to Adelaide, back to Qld in that time.

 

[aussierulesrules]

What team DIDN'T have short breaks and tough stretches then?

You played in Brisbane on the Thursday, 6 days to the Wed, then 5 days break to us in Adelaide on the Monday.
We played in Adelaide on the Saturday, 5 days to the Thu in Brisbane, and then a 4 day break back to Adelaide on the aforementioned Monday.

Its just how it goes.

It also doesn't explain their percentage of 66% v the other teams in the finals, which is almost 30% worse than the next worst (of teams who made the 8).