Draft Watcher LemmingMaster's 2017 Rankings

[LemmingMaster]

Thanks I am really buying into this draft with all the names you have mentioned and that is ignoring Ballendan, Balta, Brander, Sutherland and CCJ as decent KPP players seems like a great top 15 IMO.

On Cerra he seems like a player as you say with few flaws and a two way game, great to know he has such clean skills. Is his only knock potentially pace?

To be honest, you'd probably have to talk to other draft watchers with regards to his main flaws. If his pace is slow, it does not stand out as a major concern. He seems to always get to the contest, so he I would not be shocked to see him having a very solid tank and his repeat sprints results would be solid.

I guess his main knock would have to be not being one of the star 17 year old players compared to others and may need time to build a bandwagon. (Or my thoughts on him are completely off the mark)

I am slightly worried I may have a touch of confirmation bias now and need to start looking at his game with a critical eye.

 

[foj1]

Updated 30th of June.
No Player State Height Weight Position
1 Adam Cerra Vic Metro 186 85 MID
2 Cameron Rayner Vic Metro 186 85 MID/FWD
3 Luke Davis-Uniacke Vic Country 187 85 MID
4 Jarrod Brander Allies 195 90 DEF/FWD
5 Lochie O'Brien Vic Country 184 75 MID
6 Jaidyn Stephenson Vic Metro 189 76 MID
7 Nick Coffield Vic Metro 190 83 DEF/MID
8 Hunter Clark Vic Country 186 79 MID/DEF
9 James Worpel Vic Country 185 84 MID
10 Joel Garner Vic Metro 183 81 MID/DEF
11 Charlie Constable Vic Metro 190 83 MID
12 Paddy Dow Vic Country 184 78 MID
13 Jack Higgins Vic Metro 178 76 MID/FWD
14 Oscar Clavarino Vic Country 195 86 DEF
15 Sam Taylor WA 196 85 DEF
16 Aaron Naughton WA 194 84 DEF
17 Sam Hayes Vic Metro 203 93 RUCK/FWD
18 Andrew Brayshaw Vic Metro 183 80 MID
19 Jack Petruccelle Vic Metro 184 73 DEF/MID
20 Darcy Fogarty SA 192 88 DEF/FWD
21 Patrick Naish Vic Metro 180 69 MID/FWD
22 Conner Ballenden Allies 199 96 FWD/RUCK
23 Oscar Allen WA 191 83 FWD
24 Lachlan Fogarty Vic Metro 179 75 MID
25 Will Sutherland Vic Metro 195 90 FWD
26 Charlie Ballard SA 195 81
27 Jordan Houlihan SA 185 78 FWD
28 Callan England WA 183 76 MID
29 Charlie Spargo Allies 174 73 FWD/MID
30 Stefan Giro SA 177 70 MID

Previous Rankings

No Player State Height Weight Position
1 Adam Cerra Vic Metro 186 85 MID
2 Luke Davis-Uniacke Vic Country 187 85 MID
3 Cameron Rayner Vic Metro 186 85 MID/FWD
4 Jarrod Brander Allies 195 90 DEF/FWD
5 Lochie O'Brien Allies 184 75 MID
6 Joel Garner Vic Metro 183 81 MID/DEF
7 Hunter Clark Vic Country 186 79 MID/DEF
8 Nick Coffield Vic Metro 190 83 DEF/MID
9 Jaidyn Stephenson Vic Metro 189 76 MID
10 James Worpel Vic Country 185 84 MID
11 Jack Higgins Vic Metro 178 76 MID/FWD
12 Oscar Clavarino Vic Country 195 86 DEF
13 Sam Taylor WA 196 85 DEF
14 Paddy Dow Vic Country 184 78 MID
15 Darcy Fogarty SA 192 88 DEF/FWD
16 Aaron Naughton WA 194 84 DEF
17 Charlie Constable Vic Metro 190 83 MID
18 Sam Hayes Vic Metro 203 93 RUCK/FWD
19 Patrick Naish Vic Metro 180 69 MID/FWD
20 Jack Petruccelle Vic Metro 184 73 DEF/MID
21 Conner Ballenden Allies 199 96 FWD/RUCK
22 Charlie Ballard SA 195 81 MID
23 Lachlan Fogarty Vic Metro 179 75 MID
24 Jordan Houlihan SA 185 78 FWD
25 Stefan Giro SA 177 70 MID
26 Gryan Miers Vic Country 177 73 MID
27 Dylan Moore Vic Metro 175 66 MID/FWD
28 Charlie Spargo Allies 174 73 FWD/MID
29 Will Sutherland Vic Metro 195 90 FWD
30 Callum Coleman-Jones SA 203 85 RUCK

Interesting list- I like how you have backed your judgement
For me the following are too high: Cerra, Clark, Coffield Worpel,Ballard,Houlihan, Giro, Miers

The following are too low: Balta, Hayes, Ling, Sutherland (if nominates), D Fogarty (reckon he is hurt), Allen, Brayshaw, Floyd,

 

[LemmingMaster]

Interesting list- I like how you have backed your judgement
For me the following are too high: Cerra, Clark, Coffield Worpel,Ballard,Houlihan, Giro, Miers

The following are too low: Balta, Hayes, Ling, Sutherland (if nominates), D Fogarty (reckon he is hurt), Allen, Brayshaw, Floyd,

Balta - Watched him live and he was horrible, so maybe I've not seen the best of him.
Ling - I was considering placing him on my list, I will adjust my list after wednesday games and I may rewatch some of the other games to get a better feeling for the likes of Ling.
Sutherland - If he does nominate, I may pay more attention. Only seen two games of his and was not blown away.
Fogarty - He has to be injured because what he is displaying is not great.
Allen - I have visions of Tim Membrey that was an undersized forward and went a lot later in the draft. I guess those 191cm forwards often get dropped down the order a little.
Brayshaw - I have a feeling that he will move up my rankings with my vision. I loved his speed and attacking nature, I could see him moving into the top 10 as he has more AFL attributes.
Floyd - I will keep an eye out for him. Watching live games and on TV it can be hard to look for names that have no been massively on your radar.

Cerra - This is probably just me having a bandwagon player, probably too high but I might stick this one out.
Coffield - You do highlight a proper concern with regards to the Langford comparison and it has been in the back of my mind a heap.
Worpel - I thought his kicking looked solid in the champs but he may not have a heap of upside.
Houlihan - This is a touch of listening to others, so I could easily drop him out of my rankings, but then he just shows a few elite attributes that makes me want to keep him in there.

Giro and Miers - Two players that probably are more rookie selections and I did consider in my last rankings to drop them down, I just struggled for names that screamed pick me.
Ballard - This is another slight bandwagon that I may jump off and it was once again watching him live that is sticking in my memory. I think there are a few names that probably should jump infront of him.

 

[Newatthis]

Balta - Watched him live and he was horrible, so maybe I've not seen the best of him.
Ling - I was considering placing him on my list, I will adjust my list after wednesday games and I may rewatch some of the other games to get a better feeling for the likes of Ling.
Sutherland - If he does nominate, I may pay more attention. Only seen two games of his and was not blown away.
Fogarty - He has to be injured because what he is displaying is not great.
Allen - I have visions of Tim Membrey that was an undersized forward and went a lot later in the draft. I guess those 191cm forwards often get dropped down the order a little.
Brayshaw - I have a feeling that he will move up my rankings with my vision. I loved his speed and attacking nature, I could see him moving into the top 10 as he has more AFL attributes.
Floyd - I will keep an eye out for him. Watching live games and on TV it can be hard to look for names that have no been massively on your radar.

Cerra - This is probably just me having a bandwagon player, probably too high but I might stick this one out.
Coffield - You do highlight a proper concern with regards to the Langford comparison and it has been in the back of my mind a heap.
Worpel - I thought his kicking looked solid in the champs but he may not have a heap of upside.
Houlihan - This is a touch of listening to others, so I could easily drop him out of my rankings, but then he just shows a few elite attributes that makes me want to keep him in there.

Giro and Miers - Two players that probably are more rookie selections and I did consider in my last rankings to drop them down, I just struggled for names that screamed pick me.
Ballard - This is another slight bandwagon that I may jump off and it was once again watching him live that is sticking in my memory. I think there are a few names that probably should jump infront of him.

Was Balta hampered by the thumb he dislocated in his last Cannons game?
Miers can turn his opposition inside out but has been well held by some.
Is Fogarty doing himself a disservice by playing injured, if he is injured or just not performing as you would expect?
Southerland seems to be over rated from what others are expecting from him.

 

[briztoon]

Balta - Watched him live and he was horrible, so maybe I've not seen the best of him.
Ling - I was considering placing him on my list, I will adjust my list after wednesday games and I may rewatch some of the other games to get a better feeling for the likes of Ling.
Sutherland - If he does nominate, I may pay more attention. Only seen two games of his and was not blown away.
Fogarty - He has to be injured because what he is displaying is not great.
Allen - I have visions of Tim Membrey that was an undersized forward and went a lot later in the draft. I guess those 191cm forwards often get dropped down the order a little.
Brayshaw - I have a feeling that he will move up my rankings with my vision. I loved his speed and attacking nature, I could see him moving into the top 10 as he has more AFL attributes.
Floyd - I will keep an eye out for him. Watching live games and on TV it can be hard to look for names that have no been massively on your radar.

Cerra - This is probably just me having a bandwagon player, probably too high but I might stick this one out.
Coffield - You do highlight a proper concern with regards to the Langford comparison and it has been in the back of my mind a heap.
Worpel - I thought his kicking looked solid in the champs but he may not have a heap of upside.
Houlihan - This is a touch of listening to others, so I could easily drop him out of my rankings, but then he just shows a few elite attributes that makes me want to keep him in there.

Giro and Miers - Two players that probably are more rookie selections and I did consider in my last rankings to drop them down, I just struggled for names that screamed pick me.
Ballard - This is another slight bandwagon that I may jump off and it was once again watching him live that is sticking in my memory. I think there are a few names that probably should jump infront of him.

I'd be happy with Miers as a top 30, picked inside round two type of selection. Teams are all looking for a speedy small forward. He's to good to be a rookie selection.

 

[foj1]

Was Balta hampered by the thumb he dislocated in his last Cannons game?
Miers can turn his opposition inside out but has been well held by some.
Is Fogarty doing himself a disservice by playing injured, if he is injured or just not performing as you would expect?
Southerland seems to be over rated from what others are expecting from him.

sutherland kicked 2 goals in the 1st quarter of a nationals game on a preparation of one other national game, school footy and no tac preseason
aggressive 195cm chf with an aggressive streak and goes into centre square
reminds me of jarryd roughead at the same age

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

I would guess so, hard to tell with this draft class who will go where. I think Rayner is about the only lock player that probably should not drop out of the top 3.

LDU is a lock top 3. No question. Schoolboys football is the best in the country and hasn't done anything wrong in champs just not as prolific (I think people are basing this off WA game, its one game. First game of champs was fantastic plus his efforts in the vs Vic Country game) Him and Rayner are locks at top 3.
You could also most certainly say that Sam Hayes will be a lock inside the top 10 but exact pick is unknown.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

sutherland kicked 2 goals in the 1st quarter of a nationals game on a preparation of one other national game, school footy and no tac preseason
aggressive 195cm chf with an aggressive streak and goes into centre square
reminds me of jarryd roughead at the same age

Sutherland is a bit overhyped. Didn't do a whole lot against WA, went into the middle to try and impact the game, still couldn't. You got two midfielders kicking 5 goals a piece, an "aggressive 195cm CHF" should be bagging at least 4. Nathan Kreuger from SA, first game of the champs = an impact a forward should make on the game. Sutherland was to busy trying to bump and niggle players off the ball. He did it to LDU and apparently speaking to a recruiter who was sitting on the fence, he heard LDU say to Sutherland "who are you kidding mate".
He just makes my first round off what I've seen at champs. You can only base rankings off what you've seen and if LemmingMaster has only seen his champs, like myself then his rankings is pretty close to spot on. Hasn't done anything amazing that speaks top 10. Sure hasn't focussed solo on AFL or had a full pre season but you can't keep using that as an excuse.

 

[LemmingMaster]

My rankings are based on championships only really, so obviously my rankings at the moment and what they will be in October could change a heap.

Sutherland at the moment, I am not completely sure he will even pick AFL so my desire to place him higher is reduced.

 

[LemmingMaster]

LDU is a lock top 3. No question. Schoolboys football is the best in the country and hasn't done anything wrong in champs just not as prolific (I think people are basing this off WA game, its one game. First game of champs was fantastic plus his efforts in the vs Vic Country game) Him and Rayner are locks at top 3.
You could also most certainly say that Sam Hayes will be a lock inside the top 10 but exact pick is unknown.

LDU is probably a lock.

 

[Chris25]

Houlihan - This is a touch of listening to others, so I could easily drop him out of my rankings, but then he just shows a few elite attributes that makes me want to keep him in there.

Houlahan is underrated at 27.

 

[M Malice]

He just makes my first round off what I've seen at champs. You can only base rankings off what you've seen and if LemmingMaster has only seen his champs, like myself then his rankings is pretty close to spot on. Hasn't done anything amazing that speaks top 10. Sure hasn't focussed solo on AFL or had a full pre season but you can't keep using that as an excuse.

Like reading your thoughts on the draft prospects on various threads Hutchy, have you got a draft thread (I can't find it but I might be going blind/senile)? Would love to see a more detailed analysis from you.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Good read for someone like myself who doesn't get to watch a heap of championships.

What are your thoughts on any Tassie boys? Are any in the mix this year, if so are any likely to go top 30 in the draft?

 

[LemmingMaster]

Houlahan is underrated at 27.

I love this about the draft, one mans underrated is anothers overrated.

Looks like I may be somewhere in the middle.

 

[Hutchy Jnr]

Like reading your thoughts on the draft prospects on various threads Hutchy, have you got a draft thread (I can't find it but I might be going blind/senile)? Would love to see a more detailed analysis from you.

Very new to BFF so still trying to workout how to even created a thread, at the moment.
I will hopefully get something up on here by the end of the champs. Stay tuned haha

 

[It Just Is]

Really like your rankings. Very similar to my own thoughts based almost entirely on the Championships.

I haven't seen anyone I would draft ahead of Cerra either (although Rayner is close). If he has a query over his leg speed then that is news to me. All power and so good in the contest.

I have my suspicions about Stephenson being another Jimmy Toumpas type. If I am drafting a purely outside player I'd want them to have cleaner disposal than Stephenson. Skeptical on Brander too but talls who can kick like that are always going to go early.

I actually think this draft has some nice key position depth without the top end quality. Taylor, Naughton, Balta, Krueger, Allen, Dixon, Hayes and CCJ all have enough going for them to suggest that with the right development they could be serious AFL players. Particularly the 3 WA boys.

 

[GoGrows]

The danger of relying purely on the Champs is that you are at risk of underrating guys who happen to have a quiet tournament.

SPS didn't have a great tournament last yr, in fact his entire draft yr wasn't that good. But those that saw him as an U16 and U17 prospect knew what this kid had. If clubs drafted him purely on his U18 Champs performances then he wouldn't have gone as high as he did. And boy are Carlton glad they assessed him on his entire body of work, not just a 6 week stretch of games.

 

[foj1]

Houlahan is underrated at 27.

He has the capacity to do some terrific things but geez his lack of athleticism really stood out on Friday
Could keep up with coffield when at half forward and had no speed or work rate when he went in the midfield
I have seen some marks and goals he has kicked so he obviously has talent but it is becoming a running game more and more!

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The danger of relying purely on the Champs is that you are at risk of underrating guys who happen to have a quiet tournament.

SPS didn't have a great tournament last yr, in fact his entire draft yr wasn't that good. But those that saw him as an U16 and U17 prospect knew what this kid had. If clubs drafted him purely on his U18 Champs performances then he wouldn't have gone as high as he did. And boy are Carlton glad they assessed him on his entire body of work, not just a 6 week stretch of games.

I wouldn't trade him for anyone taken after him in the draft and I think he will be elite. ATM though he is only averaging 12.8 touches a game (all quality) He has to improve on that. Who knows we may be looking back in a couple of years and he is only averaging 16 touches and be saying that we should have known better because he didn't improve in his final year before being drafted (I highly doubt it but)

 

[LemmingMaster]

Updated my rankings list with more information from the weekends games and today's games.

There will no doubt be heaps of movement in the back half of the year but here is my current thoughts.
A few notes
1. I still love Cerra, but I thought I would move him down a little.
2. Brayshaw moves into my top 10 with a combination of speed and kicking ability, I like him.
3. Sutherland, Fogarty - I really want to see them dominate a game to either maintain or increase their draft ranking. Otherwise I could see me dropping them down a little.
4. Bailey - Loved his work and moved him into my rankings with a bang
5. Crossley - I think he is the best ruck in the 18's this year
6. After about pick 25, I start to get a little worried about the AFL ability.


No Player State Height Weight Position
1 Cameron Rayner Vic Metro 186 85 MID/FWD
2 Jarrod Brander Allies 195 90 DEF/FWD
3 Adam Cerra Vic Metro 186 85 MID
4 Luke Davis-Uniacke Vic Country 187 85 MID
5 Andrew Brayshaw Vic Metro 183 80 MID
6 Jaidyn Stephenson Vic Metro 189 76 MID
7 Paddy Dow Vic Country 184 78 MID
8 Jack Higgins Vic Metro 178 76 MID/FWD
9 Nick Coffield Vic Metro 190 83 DEF/MID
10 Lochie O'Brien Allies 184 75 MID
11 Will Sutherland Vic Metro 195 90 FWD
12 Darcy Fogarty SA 192 88 DEF/FWD
13 Sam Hayes Vic Metro 203 93 RUCK/FWD
14 Zac Bailey Allies 180 70 MID
15 Charlie Constable Vic Metro 190 83 MID
16 James Worpel Vic Country 185 84 MID
17 Lachlan Fogarty Vic Metro 179 75 MID
18 Conner Ballenden Allies 199 96 FWD/RUCK
19 Joel Garner Vic Metro 183 81 MID/DEF
20 Aaron Naughton WA 194 84 DEF
21 Hunter Clark Vic Country 186 79 MID/DEF
22 Oscar Clavarino Vic Metro 195 86 DEF
23 Sam Taylor WA 196 85 DEF
24 Oscar Allen WA 191 83 FWD
25 Charlie Spargo Allies 174 73 FWD/MID
26 Jack Powell Allies 181 81 MID
27 Charlie Ballard SA 195 81 MID
28 Noah Balta Vic Metro 194 92 DEF/FWD
29 Patrick Naish Vic Metro 180 69 MID/FWD
30 Mathew Ling Vic Country 182 74 MID
31 Jack Petruccelle Vic Metro 184 73 DEF/MID
32 Stefan Giro SA 177 70 MID
33 Gryan Miers Vic Country 177 73 MID
34 Dylan Moore Vic Metro 175 66 MID/FWD
35 Brayden Crossley Allies 199 105 RUCK
36 Ryley Stoddart Vic Metro 183 73 DEF/MID
37 Callum Coleman-Jones SA 203 85 RUCK
38 Callun England WA 183 76 MID
39 Thomas North Vic Metro 186 87 MID
40 Nathan Murphy Vic Metro 188 84 DEF/MID
41 Jackson Edwards SA 185 77 MID
42 Jordan Houlihan SA 185 78 FWD
43 Alex Martini SA 184 80 MID
44 Ethan Floyd Vic Country 179 70 MID
45 Harrison Petty SA 194 80 DEF
46 Isaac Hewson SA 184 78 MID
47 Brayden Ainsworth WA 183 75 MID
48 Kyron Hayden WA 185 88 MID
49 Thomas Mundy Allies 185 79 MID
50 Ben Miller WA 196 98 FWD

 

[Gingerbread man]

Great list, probably the closest to my own thoughts, Cant argue with your top 2, I also feel that paddy Dow may do a McGrath and will be in top 3 contention by end of the season.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Great list, probably the closest to my own thoughts, Cant argue with your top 2, I also feel that paddy Dow may do a McGrath and will be in top 3 contention by end of the season.

I'd have to see more of Dow, his kicking at times seems to be a long bomb it out of a contest. Those were my initial thoughts but on another viewing it did not seem as bad as my first thoughts. Still, I'd like him to be a little more composed when kicking.

 

[SumTingWong]

Hope Brayshaw doesn't go that high. Would love him at RFC.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Balta - Watched him live and he was horrible, so maybe I've not seen the best of him.
Ling - I was considering placing him on my list, I will adjust my list after wednesday games and I may rewatch some of the other games to get a better feeling for the likes of Ling.
Sutherland - If he does nominate, I may pay more attention. Only seen two games of his and was not blown away.
Fogarty - He has to be injured because what he is displaying is not great.
Allen - I have visions of Tim Membrey that was an undersized forward and went a lot later in the draft. I guess those 191cm forwards often get dropped down the order a little.
Brayshaw - I have a feeling that he will move up my rankings with my vision. I loved his speed and attacking nature, I could see him moving into the top 10 as he has more AFL attributes.
Floyd - I will keep an eye out for him. Watching live games and on TV it can be hard to look for names that have no been massively on your radar.

Cerra - This is probably just me having a bandwagon player, probably too high but I might stick this one out.
Coffield - You do highlight a proper concern with regards to the Langford comparison and it has been in the back of my mind a heap.
Worpel - I thought his kicking looked solid in the champs but he may not have a heap of upside.
Houlihan - This is a touch of listening to others, so I could easily drop him out of my rankings, but then he just shows a few elite attributes that makes me want to keep him in there.

Giro and Miers - Two players that probably are more rookie selections and I did consider in my last rankings to drop them down, I just struggled for names that screamed pick me.
Ballard - This is another slight bandwagon that I may jump off and it was once again watching him live that is sticking in my memory. I think there are a few names that probably should jump infront of him.

It terms of Cerra, I was at the Vic Metro WA game and he just dominated the second half and understand and share your like for him. There was a lot to like and he carried it on in the next 2 games, probably not as dominant but he wins his one on ones, makes good decisions, passes well (hand and foot) and just damn well knows where to go to get the ball.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Updated my rankings list with more information from the weekends games and today's games.

20 Aaron Naughton WA 194 84 DEF

LemmingMaster - good list

Have you seen what Naughton has done post championships? He is now playing for Peel seniors and has really delivered in his first 2 games. I can see him rising up the table. I expect people to start labelling him more like Rance (Alex is in vogue so gets to be a yardstick by many) however I personally like the comparison to Lever better.

His work at the champs was outstanding. At 194 cm (not sure if he will grow any more) he is already a good height to be second tall and playing the more attacking defender. Reads the play and will take on the intercept mark.

Update on England - he has been released by Hale to play more colts and is continuing to get heaps of the ball at Claremont colts. I was not 100% on him as he was a little sloppy in disposal in the U18 but his burst of speed is something special and he would be a great 3rd rounder.