Let's beat 90,151 for our opening match 2020!

[SunshineBoy]

* me we just went into a lockdown a student returned from Japan didn’t feel well now we are in shutdown because of It

 

[Tiger Toffee]

fu** me we just went into a lockdown a student returned from Japan didn’t feel well now we are in shutdown because of It

Everyone is freaking out like no one has ever been sick before, world has lost the plot.
These massively low numbers being reported are doing my head in.

Doesn't help when the media trot out the big scary headlines on an hourly basis.

103 people in Australia infected and 25,718,037 people approx perfectly fine but that doesn't suit the big scary agenda.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

21 confirmed cases in Victoria , the other 6mn are ok
Do you know the number that catch a cold a week , it’s > 21

I know all that mate it’s early days.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Show me any new virus that had an instant vaccine for it in it's infancy, everyone is vulnerable to new virus' because of that fact, when a vaccine is found for this and there will be then people will just treat it like any other virus out there in the world.

Yeah when it happens they will but for now they aren’t and as a doctor explained to me the issue is a lot will get this and flu.
Unfortunately every time these viruses come along there are a group of people who are sitting ducks basically. There is * all we can do about but let’s not pretend there will not be some unfortunate people.
Hopefully nobody you know.

 

[Bojangles17]

That is a fact and it’s most unfortunate however those that are susceptible are against any infection going around , just add this to the list

 

[Bojangles17]

Everyone is freaking out like no one has ever been sick before, world has lost the plot.
These massively low numbers being reported are doing my head in.

Doesn't help when the media trot out the big scary headlines on an hourly basis.

103 people in Australia infected and 25,718,037 people approx perfectly fine but that doesn't suit the big scary agenda.

21 in Victoria , I repeat 21

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Yeah when it happens they will but for now they aren’t and as a doctor explained to me the issue is a lot will get this and flu.
Unfortunately every time these viruses come along there are a group of people who are sitting ducks basically. There is fu** all we can do about but let’s not pretend there will not be some unfortunate people.
Hopefully nobody you know.

Mate i have some elderly relatives who freak out over anything but for this they are virtually rolling their eyes and they have daughters who are nurses, 103 ( number could've skyrocked by 1 or 2 off course since ) people at last report in this country were infected, i thought that report was taking the piss and the real number of 103,000 was going to revealed but no it was 103 only and in what 2 months since it broke out.

 

[smasha]

Couldn’t buy a single pack of bog roll anywhere,all the loonies from the asylum bought em all.

 

[eipuorg_]

Couldn’t buy a single pack of bog roll anywhere,all the loonies from the asylum bought em all.

wash your bum in the tub simples

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Mate i have some elderly relatives who freak out over anything but for this they are virtually rolling their eyes and they have daughters who are nurses, 103 ( number could've skyrocked by 1 or 2 off course since ) people at last report in this country were infected, i thought that report was taking the piss and the real number of 103,000 was going to revealed but no it was 103 only and in what 2 months since it broke out.

It’s not elderly people I’m referring to. It’s people with lung or aesophagael cancers, people with low lung capacity, asthmatics, people with things like MND, cystic fibrosis and the like be wise whilst they may take every precaution they will come into contact with people who won’t.
I feel for these people.

 

[smasha]

wash your bum in the tub simples

Shower mate,not sitting in my own poop.

 

[eipuorg_]

Shower mate,not sitting in my own poop.

tub girl

 

[Dr Awkward]

21 in Victoria , I repeat 21

Wait and see what the number is in two weeks mate.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Mate i have some elderly relatives who freak out over anything but for this they are virtually rolling their eyes and they have daughters who are nurses, 103 ( number could've skyrocked by 1 or 2 off course since ) people at last report in this country were infected, i thought that report was taking the piss and the real number of 103,000 was going to revealed but no it was 103 only and in what 2 months since it broke out.

the thing with coronovirus isnt the individual impacts, its the impact upon the health system which then starts effecting individuals.

look at Wuhan, Iran, and Italy, where people have been dying in hospital hallways. They all have one thing in common - their hospital systems were overwhelmed.

so here is the math

15% of coronavirus patients require oxygen. lets ignore them.

5% of coronavirus patients require being put on a respirator, and that normally means being put into the ICU. Now the fun starts.

Australia has 2000 ICU beds across our national public and private hospital system. Normally the occupancy average is 75-88%. Lets round down and assume corona hits us hard when its nationally at 70%. That means excluding the normal peeps we have going into ICU, we only have 600 beds available nationally.

if this 600 is 5% of active infections, that means Australia needs only 12,000 active infections to push our hospital network to the limit.

But here is the thing that really hurts us - our geography both protects us and hurts us. While our large open spaces mean we are more likely to be protected by personal space, it also hurts our ability to share patients amongst hospital resources (45% of ICU beds are in regional Australia). If we look at Sydney, they have 385 of Australia's 2000 ICU beds. run the math, if Sydney gets 4,200 active cases, odds are its hospital system will be on the bubble. For Melbourne, we only have 215 beds, meaning Melbourne needs just 1300 active infections to put pressure on our system.

Once the numbers exceed this, we are into Italy territory. Northern Italy is the richest part of Italy, so you cant blame poverty or underfunded facilities. They were broke by numbers. emergency rooms cannot cope, ICU's are overflowing, staff are working insane shifts AND getting infected while doing it, and that then pushes into causing problems with the rest of the health network

the 95% who will overload GP clinics isnt the problem. Its the 5% who hit the ICU's that are the worry and the reason we need to reduce the size of this at any one time as much as possible (ie its better for everyone to be effected over the course of a year, than have everyone effected in one month).

 

[Madtiger2006]

Wait and see what the number is in two weeks mate.

why worry about round 2 when round 1 is 1 week away

 

[Madtiger2006]

Nice forecast next week. 99k

 

[Bojangles17]

Wait and see what the number is in two weeks mate.

Probably 31-32

 

[Bojangles17]

the thing with coronovirus isnt the individual impacts, its the impact upon the health system which then starts effecting individuals.

look at Wuhan, Iran, and Italy, where people have been dying in hospital hallways. They all have one thing in common - their hospital systems were overwhelmed.

so here is the math

15% of coronavirus patients require oxygen. lets ignore them.

5% of coronavirus patients require being put on a respirator, and that normally means being put into the ICU. Now the fun starts.

Australia has 2000 ICU beds across our national public and private hospital system. Normally the occupancy average is 75-88%. Lets round down and assume corona hits us hard when its nationally at 70%. That means excluding the normal peeps we have going into ICU, we only have 600 beds available nationally.

if this 600 is 5% of active infections, that means Australia needs only 12,000 active infections to push our hospital network to the limit.

But here is the thing that really hurts us - our geography both protects us and hurts us. While our large open spaces mean we are more likely to be protected by personal space, it also hurts our ability to share patients amongst hospital resources (45% of ICU beds are in regional Australia). If we look at Sydney, they have 385 of Australia's 2000 ICU beds. run the math, if Sydney gets 4,200 active cases, odds are its hospital system will be on the bubble. For Melbourne, we only have 215 beds, meaning Melbourne needs just 1300 active infections to put pressure on our system.

Once the numbers exceed this, we are into Italy territory. Northern Italy is the richest part of Italy, so you cant blame poverty or underfunded facilities. They were broke by numbers. emergency rooms cannot cope, ICU's are overflowing, staff are working insane shifts AND getting infected while doing it, and that then pushes into causing problems with the rest of the health network

the 95% who will overload GP clinics isnt the problem. Its the 5% who hit the ICU's that are the worry and the reason we need to reduce the size of this at any one time as much as possible (ie its better for everyone to be effected over the course of a year, than have everyone effected in one month).

Australia is a continent rather than a jigsaw puzzle of Europe with nil borders , think about it before spruiking hysteria ,,,,,

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Australia is a continent rather than a jigsaw puzzle of Europe with nil borders , think about it before spruiking hysteria ,,,,,

And that is exactly why I isolated the numbers for melbourne and Sydney as standalone.

And it's not about hysteria. 85% of infected will just get a mild to funky flu situation. The issue is the 5%, and the reason for social isolation techniques is to minimize the size of the 5% at any one time

Noone wants our hospital system being slammed

 

[eipuorg_]

Nice forecast next week. 99k

u gonna wear your mask to the game or full gimp suit ?

 

[k31th]

There will be 90 there... not 90k, 90!

those three are all different numbers
90
90,000
and 90 factorial, which is hard to write down it's so big... approximately 1.485716e+138, or in full numbers:
1,485,715,964,481,761,497,309,522,733,620,825,737,885,569,961,284,688,766,942,216,863,704,985,393,094,065,876,545,992,131,370,884,059,645,617,234,469,978,112,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

 

[damicky]

Probably not going to happen

 

[biaseddustyfan]

Probably not going to happen

sauce?

 

[damicky]

sauce?

Covid-19 told me to tell you

 

[NaturalDisaster]

Round one officially to get playing without a crowd.

Im banning TigerTrain23 for putting this moz on us