Let's talk Ports! Part 2

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Andre

Premium Platinum
Sep 3, 2002
23,256
25,278
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide

Arintaraj

Debutant
Mar 24, 2015
112
231
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I fell into doing a ladder predictor because it's sort of that time of year to let your hopes be lifted and then watch them get smashed like the masochists we all are.

12 wins gets us there for sure, 11 still gives us a good chance.

In before what happen power and we finish on 10 wins.
According to Matter of Stats' latest estimates:

- If we get 12 wins, our probability of making finals is 87%
- If we get 11 wins, our probability of making finals is 24%

So 11 wins probably won't cut it.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Magus

Brownlow Medallist
Dec 31, 2013
13,637
32,684
AFL Club
Port Adelaide

Watching this video I have two questions.

1. Why was (Leslie?) wearing a t-shirt under his guernsey in the 88 grand final?

2. What was Rohan Smith thinking with that little tuft of hair on his forehead?
 

Steve Dore

International Trade Facilitator
Aug 30, 2004
27,212
36,203
a three hour tour.
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Minnesota Vikings, Canadiens, Ports

Watching this video I have two questions.

1. Why was (Leslie?) wearing a t-shirt under his guernsey in the 88 grand final?

2. What was Rohan Smith thinking with that little tuft of hair on his forehead?
Martin Leslie used to wear a neoprene (??) top under his guernsey for shoulder support.
 

Needs Gravy

Premium Platinum
Nov 16, 2014
1,492
4,574
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Plenty of greats in that era always had a soft spot for Phil Harrison on the wing. If he was playing now days would look pretty awesome running down the wing at AO.
 

Pappagallo

Co(m)poster
Jun 12, 2012
15,994
48,020
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
According to Matter of Stats' latest estimates:

- If we get 12 wins, our probability of making finals is 87%
- If we get 11 wins, our probability of making finals is 24%

So 11 wins probably won't cut it.
The last time 11 wins cut the mustard for finals was back in 2010 when there were still only 16 teams in the league (ignoring 2013 when Essendon’s ban promoted Carlton from 9th). 8 spots for 18 teams means the numbers are just against it from happening so you’ll need to hit better than 50% to get in most years.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,971
71,730
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
Jack Cahill has been at Wimbeldon watching our future AFLW special / marquee player signing ready to recruit her for our 2023 team.

Hopefully Jack will have one of his successful pre match pep talks, like Timmy G told some of us about last Friday night at Club 1870 event, with Simona before the big final against Serena tonight.

[B]john cahill[/B]‏ @[B]jvcahill40[/B]
As a player & a coach for @PAFC I have been involved in premiership teams. To win you need to be confident, disciplined & mentally strong. Today @Simona_Halep showed all of these qualities. Great win , love your talent .

and



and notice Jack bottom right hand corner.

 
Last edited:

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
54,971
71,730
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
The last time 11 wins cut the mustard for finals was back in 2010 when there were still only 16 teams in the league (ignoring 2013 when Essendon’s ban promoted Carlton from 9th). 8 spots for 18 teams means the numbers are just against it from happening so you’ll need to hit better than 50% to get in most years.
It could happen but it will be very rare and equalisation would have to be having a big impact at the bottom end of the table.

What you would need is 3 dominate teams and 4 strong bottom 4 teams. If the top 3 teams had 20,19 and 18 wins, the 4th team only had 13 or 14 wins, and the bottom team had 6 wins and the the 15-17th teams had 7 wins each, that leaves 100 wins to be shared between 10 teams.

Most wins in a season by a wooden spooner was 6 in 1976 by Collingwood when 12 teams played, and 5.5 wins by Brisbane in 1998 when 16 played.

In 2017 the bottom 4 sides had 3 x 6 wins and Brisbane won the wooden spoons with 5 wins, so its not that radical what I suggested above at the bottom of the ladder. 2017 WCE snuck into 8th spot over Melbourne with 12 wins and by about 9 pts re better percentage 105.71% vs 105.22%.

In 2011 you had 4 dominate sides because of GC entry and weak double up games and top 4 won 20,19,18 and 17 games respectively, Essendon were 8th with 11.5 wins and 9th were North 10 wins. The bottom 3 sides won 4,4,3 games.
 

Pappagallo

Co(m)poster
Jun 12, 2012
15,994
48,020
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
It could happen but it will be very rare and equalisation would have to be having a big impact at the bottom end of the table.

What you would need is 3 dominate teams and 4 strong bottom 4 teams. If the top 3 teams had 20,19 and 18 wins, the 4th team only had 13 or 14 wins, and the bottom team had 6 wins and the the 15-17th teams had 7 wins each, that leaves 100 wins to be shared between 10 teams.

Most wins in a season by a wooden spooner was 6 in 1976 by Collingwood when 12 teams played, and 5.5 wins by Brisbane in 1998 when 16 played.

In 2017 the bottom 4 sides had 3 x 6 wins and Brisbane won the wooden spoons with 5 wins, so its not that radical what I suggested above at the bottom of the ladder. 2017 WCE snuck into 8th spot over Melbourne with 12 wins and by about 9 pts re better percentage 105.71% vs 105.22%.

In 2011 you had 4 dominate sides because of GC entry and weak double up games and top 4 won 20,19,18 and 17 games respectively, Essendon were 8th with 11.5 wins and 9th were North 10 wins. The bottom 3 sides won 4,4,3 games.
Yeah it’s still possible but unlikely. I think most years from here on out the line will be 12/13 wins unless they unleash the so-called “wildcard” idea.
 
Top Bottom