Draft Profile - Liam Stocker | Page 15 | BigFooty

Draft Profile Liam Stocker

Discussion in 'Drafts, Trading & Free Agency' started by Lore, Oct 30, 2018.

  1. Monkey King

    Monkey King Brownlow Medallist

    Carlton
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    Silvagni took over a bottom of the ladder list almost devoid of young talent; he hit the draft hard and now 3 years down the track, about half the team are btw 18-21yo. Reckon your method for assessing a list manager needs calibration of you think this strategy was designed to payoff in 2018. Let’s be real, whether SOS has done a brilliant job or not won’t be known for at least a couple of years.
     
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  2. blueboy25

    blueboy25 Norm Smith Medallist

    Carlton
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    Maybe they feel that because they have turned over 40+ players in 3 years and have a lot of young talent come into the club and are happy with their tall forward options (Curnow, Mckay and McGovern) and their key defensive posts (Weitering, Marchbank, Jones) but realise they need more midfield depth.

    So what do they do? Take a risk and draft a midfielder who they think can play in 2019 instead of waiting until next years draft and hope for the best.

    Drafting best available talent instead of taking a risk is like tambling over buddy. I am sure you must understand that reference.
     
  3. Marcel Proust

    Marcel Proust Senior List

    Richmond
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    Apart from Carlton and Adelaide fans on this forum, betting markets on the afl 2019, what would you like to use as a unbias fair and accurate guide?

    bottom 2

    Not maybe this is whats happened. IMHO a risky strategy

    richmond, and a number of clubs have around half under 22
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018 at 12:49 PM
  4. Arr0w

    Arr0w Brownlow Medallist

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    Finally we have something that is definitive, I take it you will be placing a wager on that outcome?
     
  5. Red Bull

    Red Bull Norm Smith Medallist

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    images (23).jpeg

    Get in the que behind the adelaide supporters mate .
    The next decade gonna be fun :D
     
  6. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

    Carlton
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    Folks always seem to forget we have Adelaide's first round pick. An inconvenient truth?

    Let's say Carlton finishes 2nd last and Crows finish 7th.

    Pick 2 gets swapped for 12 (and Stocker).

    Pick 2 could be a gun, or a dud.
    Pick 12 could be a gun, or a dud.
    Stocker may be a gun, or a dud.

    In 2015 pick 2 was Josh Schache, pick 12 Charlie Curnow. How'd that turn out?

    This trade can NOT be evaluated until at least four years from now.
     
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  7. The Falcon Strike

    The Falcon Strike Hall of Famer

    West Coast
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    In your 2015 scenario - with Pick 2 - you could have chosen Charlie Curnow.

    Ultimately the player that decides the value of this trade is Stocker.

    If he guns it - it's a deal well done. if not - then assuming carlton finish below adelaide - then Carlton have traded significant draft currency for a dud.
     
  8. Arr0w

    Arr0w Brownlow Medallist

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    So there is no value in the 1st rounder we have next year?
     
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  9. Jeremias

    Jeremias Moderator

    Carlton
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    This is an incredibly simplistic way of looking at things, with little thought put into why we are where we are, and what we've done over the past few years with Silvagni in charge.

    When you shed as much experience and bring in as many kids as we have over the past few years, the reality is a few lowly finishes are to be expected.

    And yet, if I asked you to expand on this, I'd bet a significant amount that have no understanding of the rationale behind the decision to recruit these players.

    You can talk about lazy recruiting, but the reality is this is a lazy and tired argument.

    Really? Even when he has said a number of times over the past few years, that he has stepped away from the process completely, when it comes to his sons and deciding whether or not to draft them?

    Was it nepotistic for Dororo to bid on Jack in the 2015 draft?

    All well and good to put this forward, but you haven't exactly explained it particularly well.
     
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  10. The Falcon Strike

    The Falcon Strike Hall of Famer

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    Sure there is - but it's expected to be less currency than what you would have had.
     
  11. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

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    But Carlton, and a heap of other teams, skipped over Charlie Curnow. That's the whole flamin' point.

    The lower pick Curnow (12) turned out heaps better than the higher pick Schache (2).

    This trade is years away from evaluating winners and losers.

    Heck, what if Carlton finishes higher than Adelaide. What then? Unlikely sure, just like Magpies in this year's GF was unlikely.
     
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  12. RobR

    RobR Club Legend

    Carlton
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    Thats right, but we also have Stocker. Is that so hard to understand?
     
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  13. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

    Carlton
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    Some expected WCE to finish outside the 8 this year. You ended up premiers.

    F*** expectations, the Blues aim to be heaps better. We will be anti-tanking next year :D
     
  14. Marcel Proust

    Marcel Proust Senior List

    Richmond
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    99% of the people reading this thread 'understand the trade'.

    the top 8 and bottom four, were almost entirely as expected apart from Adelaide/WCE

    for example, the market correctly predicted Melbourne making the finals for the first time in a while
     
  15. La Dispute

    La Dispute La Dispute

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    I’ll reiterate - ladder predictions aren’t just a point blank evaluation on the basis of one wholesale projection: they are created on 22 smaller predictions, some of which are made over 8 months in advance.

    Remember when Carlton were flag favourites after Round 3, 2012?

    And how much were Richmond paying to win the premiership in 2017 after Round 23, 2016?

    It’s a very flimsy, overtly rigid assessment.
     
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  16. Arr0w

    Arr0w Brownlow Medallist

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    Changing currency has nothing to do with the level of outcome
     
  17. dlb99

    dlb99 Club Legend

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    Untrue. Fake news.

    Pretty much no one expected Collingwood in the 8, let alone top 2.

    As George Costanza once said, it's not a lie if you believe it's true. Keep believing your fairytales.
     
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  18. Blues_Man

    Blues_Man Brownlow Medallist

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    Draft picks are speculative...as you should well know Tambling lol
     
  19. Blues_Man

    Blues_Man Brownlow Medallist

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    Pretty ignortant post..those aren't the only to factors in the deal newby
     
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  20. jezzajay

    jezzajay Premiership Player

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    :drunk:
     
  21. LemmingMaster

    LemmingMaster Norm Smith Medallist

    Carlton
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    Can you highlight the trades SOS made as Carlton list manager which you disagree with, then we can decide on the true value of those trades?

    I am always interested if people actually know facts or just love to throw out random insults.
     
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  22. LemmingMaster

    LemmingMaster Norm Smith Medallist

    Carlton
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    Once again, can we deal in facts?

    Stocker + Adelaides 2019 1st (14 at a rough guess?) v Carltons 2019 1st (3 at a rough guess?)


    1. Now an important aspect of this trade is Carlton knew exactly who there were getting in 2018.
    2. Rightly or wrongly, Carlton rated Stocker as the 6th best player based on our needs
    Considering the top end talent in Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine and Max King were some of the most highly rated juniors I've seen in a long time, they may have viewed Stocker as a top 4 pick in most normal years.
     
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  23. Malifice

    Malifice Moderator

    Carlton
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    You're full of it, and either trolling or oblivious to football. I made a thread about this on the main board, detaling the drafting over the past few years since SOS has come on board.

    Our current predicament isnt due to SOS, it's due to our woeful drafting from 2007-2014 (in the time before SOS came on board). We blew 8/9 first round Picks in that time on Lucas, Bootsma, McLean, Yarran, Menzel, Boekhoest, Jacksch, Watson (only Cripps was a win and remains on the list), and our 2nd, 3rd and later picks didnt fare any better.

    Accordingly we had a huge hole in our list with almost no talent of the ages of 18-26 at the start of 2015 with Murphy, Gibbs, Kruezer and Simpson being our core players, and not much else of note on the list (and those 3 blokes pushing 30).

    We were headed towards the edge of a massive cliff.

    SOS was given a mandate to fill the list full of young players and do a 'total list reset' from the ground up, essentially building a brand new list around Docherty (then 21) and Cripps (then 20) with everyone else expendible. In the last 4 drafts/ trade periods we've traded out senior players for extra picks (Gibbs, Yarran, Henderson, Tuohy) and brought in over a dozen quality young players (who are mostly still developing). Walsh, Stocker, Setterfield, Dow, Kennedy, McGovern, Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Fisher, Marchbank, Kennedy, Plowman, SPS, OBrien.

    Thats 15 x 1st round picks in just 4 drafts/ 3 years.

    We now have what we believe is the core of our list going forwards, but they're mostly still 18-21 years of age and in their first, second or third years (I.e. too young to be regular stars, and in need of a few more pre-seasons).

    We're done with the draft for a few years now (as can be seen with the trading of next years 1st for Stocker). Next year we'll look to get a years development into the list we have, and then will look to supplement that list with F/A and trades in areas of need.
     
  24. Rich01

    Rich01 Norm Smith Medallist

    Richmond
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    They sure are. We found out Tambling was a dud. And Oliver is an AA.
    Looks like we both missed a trick there eh?
     
  25. Arr0w

    Arr0w Brownlow Medallist

    Carlton
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    I have come to the conclusion, that you are an uneducated football, troll

    Still waiting to know if you will be placing a wager on us finishing bottom 2, as you seem quite definitive. Happy to take on the wager, for any denomination that suits you
     
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