Draft Profile Liam Stocker

[Monkey King]

Yep, Bolton’s 66 game rebuild has run its race. If you didn’t at least triple your wins from 2018 they should be looking at him.

The 66 game rebuild was a list management strategy, not a win-loss objective; move on most of the existing players and hit the draft hard, which has been done. The next phase will be about stabilising the list and developing the players together as a group.

 

[Rich01]

The 66 game rebuild was a list management strategy, not a win-loss objective; move on most of the existing players and hit the draft hard, which has been done. The next phase will be about stabilising the list and developing the players together as a group.

That’s great but if there isn’t at least 6 wins in that list next year Bolton needs to be looked at. SOS has banked on this by ponying up their first pick for Stocker and Adelaides first.

Hopefully you guys picked the right kids and develop them the right way.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

As did Ben Cavarra. Who we picked up in the 40s. 5 years after he won it.

And this has what relevance?

 

[Rich01]

SOS has put it on the line. Perhaps smart, perhaps stupid. But it's rare that a club will actually what looks like a poor trade on face value because they rate things differently. I reckon there's quite a few trades that don't happen because clubs are worried how the supporters would take it.

This. SOS rated Stocker as well inside the top ten in a superdraft. Five years will tell us if he’s correct in his Stocker call. There’s always players outside the top ten that move up in their draft class several years on.

I think two of Stocker, Smith and RCD should be thereabouts. Time will tell which ones succeed from here.

 

[Rich01]

We have a 7 year period from now were Cripps, Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank, Curnow, McKay, McGovern, Weitering, SPS, Dow, LoB, Walsh, Stocker, Fisher, Williamson, Kennedy, Setterfield, Newman, Silvagni etc will all be peaking around the same time. We are in a good place.

That’s realistic and a reasonable timeframe. The kids you mention are promising and watching them develop and win a few games together is key over the next couple of seasons.

There will be deadwood you have to drop off- kids that just won’t make it, and I think the ones you didn’t mention are spot on. JSOS probably won’t be there as others develop ahead of him either.

Key will be having a blend of top tier mids (currently only Cripps) and second tier mids (hopefully guys that forfill their potential to support Kennedy) and guys who start to develop to their full potential as matchwinners (SPS, Weitering).

 

[Monkey King]

That’s great but if there isn’t at least 6 wins in that list next year Bolton needs to be looked at.

If injury management goes well and Bolts has close to his best 22 playing a majority of games together and still wins less than 5 games, then there’s gonna be a spotlight for sure, but you could lose 15 games by a point or 15 games by 100pts and the win-loss column will look exactly the same. If Carlton are consistent with their statements, performance over result is how he’ll be judged.

 

[Rich01]

,

If injury management goes well and Bolts has close to his best 22 playing a majority of games together and still wins less than 5 games, then there’s gonna be a spotlight for sure, but you could lose 15 games by a point or 15 games by 100pts and the win-loss column will look exactly the same. If Carlton are consistent with their statements, performance over result is how he’ll be judged.

The expectation is they are going to win many more games, based on trading out your first pick. Injuries or no injuries, if you pony up a top 3 pick this year the coach has to be under the gun as the club obviously wouldn’t have forecast to have traded away their future this year.

 

[bmaurizio]

So anyway, welcone Liam, looks a solid get...would like to think we have the makings of a midfield amongst Cripps, Kennedy, SPS, Dow, O'Brien, Fisher, Setterfield, Walsh and Stocker.

If can’t etch out a strong midfield from about the 10 quality talent youngsters avalable , we’ve got massive problems.

 

[bmaurizio]

If injury management goes well and Bolts has close to his best 22 playing a majority of games together and still wins less than 5 games, then there’s gonna be a spotlight for sure, but you could lose 15 games by a point or 15 games by 100pts and the win-loss column will look exactly the same. If Carlton are consistent with their statements, performance over result is how he’ll be judged.

Reckon we’ll win 6 to 8 games, Silvagni has obviously back us in to win more games, but with improvements in other teams list too 8 games is about the limit.
2020 onwards will be the new epoch for the club
It’s been a great trade/draft period fir CFC , high quality youngsters and good depth by trades and in the rookie list.

 

[Monkey King]

,
The expectation is they are going to win many more games, based on trading out your first pick. Injuries or no injuries, if you pony up a top 3 pick this year the coach has to be under the gun as the club obviously wouldn’t have forecast to have traded away their future this year.

The expectation I would assume is that injuries and performance will be better managed with Andrew Russell at the helm and that the team itself will have improved performance. I’m sure the club would expect those to translate into wins, but also be realistic to know that sometimes it won’t. The KPI’s on assessing Bolton will be more than just a win-loss record.

As for a top 3 pick, I’m sure the club looked at all the potential outcomes and still decided it was worth a shot to get their man. I doubt the club ticks off on this deal and then sacks Bolts if the team doesn’t run up the ladder. That would be stupid.

 

[Rich01]

I doubt the club ticks off on this deal and then sacks Bolts if the team doesn’t run up the ladder. That would be stupid.

Seems SOS and the club have banked on them running up the ladder. Will be interesting to see what they do with Bolton if they dont.

Realistically I don’t see them winning more than 6 games (which seems realistic and reasonable given their list and where they have come from), which would mean they are ponying up pick 4 next year to the crows. I would see that as improvement in the playing group and not worth sacking the coach, yet it’s still a high price to give for stocker if this likelihood eventuates.

 

[Kramer1]

Seems SOS and the club have banked on them running up the ladder. Will be interesting to see what they do with Bolton if they dont.

Realistically I don’t see them winning more than 6 games (which seems realistic and reasonable given their list and where they have come from), which would mean they are ponying up pick 4 next year to the crows. I would see that as improvement in the playing group and not worth sacking the coach, yet it’s still a high price to give for stocker if this likelihood eventuates.

We may expect a few more W's. We may be gambling on Adelaide remaining stagnant. We may see Stocker as the equivalent of an early-ish pick next year, in which case there is no reason to get hung up on the number, and we bank a year of development and 10-15 games experience. We may plan on trading next year's first in which case 10-12, should that eventuate, is still an appealing pick.

SOS isn't really a knee-jerk type. This has obviously been thought through from every angle.

 

[Monkey King]

Seems SOS and the club have banked on them running up the ladder. Will be interesting to see what they do with Bolton if they dont.

Realistically I don’t see them winning more than 6 games (which seems realistic and reasonable given their list and where they have come from), which would mean they are ponying up pick 4 next year to the crows. I would see that as improvement in the playing group and not worth sacking the coach, yet it’s still a high price to give for stocker if this likelihood eventuates.

I think there’s a lot of things at play here, including the idea that Carlton will be using next year’s first pick on a trade target for which pick 3 would represent overkill. The hedge if they don’t improve is that they’ve cashed in the value on a player they rated top 10 in a strong draft, rather than pocketing the difference on a downgrade in what’s reputed to be a weaker draft next year. The potential arbitrage if they do improve is that they’ve pawned off a draft pick that had less value than expected.

It’s not all straight lines here and I’d be shocked if the club hadn’t worked the angles and instead, gone blindly into this trade on one belief that essentially puts Bolton’s head in a noose.

 

[dlb99]

Seems SOS and the club have banked on them running up the ladder. Will be interesting to see what they do with Bolton if they dont.

Realistically I don’t see them winning more than 6 games (which seems realistic and reasonable given their list and where they have come from), which would mean they are ponying up pick 4 next year to the crows. I would see that as improvement in the playing group and not worth sacking the coach, yet it’s still a high price to give for stocker if this likelihood eventuates.

But its not just Stocker for the supposed pick 4. It's the Crows 1st round pick as well.

Let's say 4 for 12 and Stocker.

That's what's intriguing, what if 4 is a gun, Crows win. What if 4 is a bust and 12 is Charlie Curnow? Big win Blues.

We swapped a high 1st round for 2 1sts in the teens.

 

[Rich01]

But its not just Stocker for the supposed pick 4. It's the Crows 1st round pick as well.

Let's say 4 for 12 and Stocker.

That's what's intriguing, what if 4 is a gun, Crows win. What if 4 is a bust and 12 is Charlie Curnow? Big win Blues.

We swapped a high 1st round for 2 1sts in the teens.

Yep. Never said it was just stocker for pick 4.
All I said is you will most likely pony up a top four pick for him.

And if it’s 12 and 19 for 4 I don’t think any club would have done that. But as SOS values Stocker as well inside the top ten, the trade makes sense if his evaluation on the player is spot on.

 

[dlb99]

Yep. Never said it was just stocker for pick 4.
All I said is you will most likely pony up a top four pick for him.

And if it’s 12 and 19 for 4 I don’t think any club would have done that. But as SOS values Stocker as well inside the top ten, the trade makes sense if his evaluation on the player is spot on.

Yep, a lot depends on whether Stocker develops into a top 10 type talent.

An interesting subplot of the 2019 season.

 

[windows1]

He says he did the 2km time trial last week.

Anyone know what time he did?

 

[dlb99]

In one of the draft videos posted on the Carlton site, Bolts says to Sam Walsh that Stocker was listed at 8 on our draft board.

 

[The Smith Revolution]

I think there’s a lot of things at play here, including the idea that Carlton will be using next year’s first pick on a trade target for which pick 3 would represent overkill. The hedge if they don’t improve is that they’ve cashed in the value on a player they rated top 10 in a strong draft, rather than pocketing the difference on a downgrade in what’s reputed to be a weaker draft next year. The potential arbitrage if they do improve is that they’ve pawned off a draft pick that had less value than expected.

It’s not all straight lines here and I’d be shocked if the club hadn’t worked the angles and instead, gone blindly into this trade on one belief that essentially puts Bolton’s head in a noose.

I like it. It’s good for both clubs. Gives us something we haven’t had for a decade and could not arrange in this unique year for top end SA talent. SOS picked a good target club to trade. And tweeks your mindset. No charity, it’s about the now. Gets a quality midfielder in. Never comes without a price in the AFL.

Us Crows supporters waste thousand of comments on what we will do trade/draft and things always change. So take control of the now, who knows what’s around the corner.

They changed the rules of the bloody game this year. So as you said, it certainly isn’t all straight lines!


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[sr36]

We have a young squad but surely they will not all be playing every week like last season,

B: Plowman Jones Weitering
HB: Docherty Marchbank Simpson
C: Walsh Cripps Fisher
HF: Thomas Curnow Murphy
F: Fasolo McKay McGovern
R: Kreuzer Setterfield Kennedy
I: Ed Curnow , Dow, SPS, Newman
E: De Koning Stocker Lang


Thats a pretty good mix just need the right game plan and they need to stay fit and healthy. There is alot of upside here and expecting a spike - a big spike.

There's some good young talent there, but the ball's going to ping quickly out of your forward line if you line up like that. Are Walsh and Stocker quick? Because pace across the park looks an issue to me.

 

[dlb99]

There's some good young talent there, but the ball's going to ping quickly out of your forward line if you line up like that. Are Walsh and Stocker quick? Because pace across the park looks an issue to me.

Walsh has Cotchin like speed, just ok.
Stocker, unknown, did not do the combine. Probably similar to Walsh.

Petrevski-Seton probably our most pacy mid.

Yes, an area that will need to be filled in time. Same goes for small high-pressure forwards.
Same for ruck.

A work in progress.

 

[Toadvine]

He says he did the 2km time trial last week.

Anyone know what time he did?

 

[sr36]

Walsh has Cotchin like speed, just ok.
Stocker, unknown, did not do the combine. Probably similar to Walsh.

Petrevski-Seton probably our most pacy mid.

Yes, an area that will need to be filled in time. Same goes for small high-pressure forwards.
Same for ruck.

A work in progress.

Yep. Looking like a pretty solid rebuild. If they develop well, you've got the important and expensive positions covered - quality mids and talls. Just got to add some pacy role players and your future ruck and a sustained rise could be yours.

 

[Orange Agent]

That's a KPP type of time. Hate to see what it is unfit.

 

[nineteen eighty]

If injury management goes well and Bolts has close to his best 22 playing a majority of games together and still wins less than 5 games, then there’s gonna be a spotlight for sure, but you could lose 15 games by a point or 15 games by 100pts and the win-loss column will look exactly the same. If Carlton are consistent with their statements, performance over result is how he’ll be judged.

Correct in that clubs in rebuild phase don't really look at wins / losses but more %. Carlton's has been woeful through the rebuild. Next year will be interesting.

As I said earlier, there is no right or wrong re the Stocker deal. At least not for another 5 years. At least the Blues had the balls to bank on an improvement for next year and then draft to that on s player they rated.