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Draft Profile Liam Stocker

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I don't see how my narrative doesn't fit? SOS seems to prefer picking up DFAs and rookieing recylced players over drafting mature age talent. Your counter to this was you drafted Galluci and wanted to draft Kelly. That's a pretty weak argument over 4 years of drafting.

DFA’s are not “selections” either.

Over four years of drafting SOS has taken 18 kids in the ND and one “recycled” player in young Garlett who’d walked away from the Suns. In the PSD and rookie he’s taken 2 kids, two internationals, one Catagory-B, two players from the VFL (O’Shea also ex-Port), and 4 recycled AFL players - 2 of those in this year’s draft.

Getting Bugg and Goddard this year doesn’t suddenly create a 4 year trend of draft preference, particular when you consider SOS’s actual preference was to get Kelly in the second round.
 
List manager or recruiter? I'd love to know what deals you think he did were good or bad at the time of the deal. Please take into consideration if a salary dump or player wanting to leave. I'm not saying Silvagni has done a great job, i'd just love to know an outsiders opinion.

Going on draft picks i think Adelaide definitely win this deal. Doesn't matter on where you think a player is ranked, the bottom line it looks like this will be pick 2 - 3 for pick 19 and 8 - 12. The real winner will be known next year when we find out where the teams finish on the ladder and in 10 years on player performance.

By the way the number 1 pick is rarely the best in the draft because they are competing against 70 other players.

I’m wary of posting large swathes of my own analysis of SOS’ time, but your question seems reasonable and I only hope others see it the same way...

My understanding is that like Hine before last year he was both chief recruiter and list manager? The deals I haven’t rated were:
  • Pick 8, Lamb, Phillips, Sumner and Plowman for 28, 77, 95 and Geelongs 16 1st
  • Touhy and 2017 2nd for Smedts, 63 and Geelong’s 2017 1st.
  • Marchbank, Pickett and GWS’ 2017 2nd for 45, 58 and Geelong’s 2017 1st.
  • Lobbe for 95
  • Lang and Carlton’s 2018 4th for 58 and Geelong’s 2018 4th
I think he got value for Gibbs, the Kennedy deal was about right although I’m not convinced on him long term (I’d like to have seen more after 3 years in the system), I liked the pick exchange with Hawthorn, given the parameters I can’t comment on Palmer and the Kerrige/ Menzel trade was always shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic. Overall in his time I haven’t been enamoured with your clubs trading because you’ve been very busy with little tangible progress.

On this deal in particular it hinges on Adelaide’s finishing position which means Carlton have taken on all the risk and if I’m in list management I’m risk averse so that scares me. I expect Carlton finishes bottom 4 so Adelaide finishing inside the 8 is a loss for Carlton, IMO.

The biggest problem I have is that all of the guys on that list are barely best 30 in a strong team. Some have struggled to contribute to a poor team so whenever it is that Carlton bounce back, aside from Plowman and Marchbank, none of those guys will be around, IMO. I realise that it was a conscious decision to go mature because you can’t just go with kids, but for mine there’s always better value in the state leagues. Since SOS has come in all of the following have entered the system as mature agers Harmes, Luke Ryan, Liam Ryan, Kelly, Hannan, Mihocek, Langdon, Rioli, Stewart, Tipungwuti, Menegola, Broad and Fritsch. Plus ruckman in Abbott and Cameron that are seeing game time, but it’s hard to judge. It’s an area Collingwood continue to overlook.

I find it harder to comment on the draft, but I don’t think he’s gotten bang for his buck at either club which happens when you look after both the list management and recruiting. I’ll deal specifically with his time at Carlton and the only selection I think he’s gotten fantastic value for was Curnow. Weitering is only just going, McKay looks solid not a difference maker, SPS had a real lull in 18, I’d need to see more of Cuningham, Fisher looks like McKay, It’s super early to be judging O’Brien and Dow although I think there was better value available. From that group the only one I’d be interested in trading for is McKay because I don’t rate Cox. The others just don’t impress me enough and there’s only one bloke on your list in his prime I’d actively chase which is Docherty although that’s not necessarily a SOS issue more an observation of how far back the list is.

I think injuries played a role in 2018, but it was the difference between a 5 win season and a 2 win season, IMO. Carlton to me still comes across as a club that isn’t fully prepared to own how far back they are, for instance chasing Shiel, but you do have some of the pieces in place to turn the ship around. Were I in Judd’s shoes I’d bolster development because I think, GC aside, your development is league worst and I’d be lobbying the AFL to loosen the salary cap floor to at least 85%. Then structure your payments to go hard at a 2020 FA plus trade because I think there’s at least two years of pain left given the list build so far. The amount of salary wastage on AFL lists is ridiculous! Docherty, Cripps and Curnow deserve 25-30% of the cap between them and the rest about 50-60%. Under that scenario you should be able to role that into development or high performance and build a significant warchest of $1-2m in a given year. I’d also be re-structuring your recruitment and list management*.

If I were to succinctly summarise SOS’ work to this point it’s a similar question of what I asked of Collingwood 14-17, what do you stand for? What’s your 1 Wood? On a personal note are you happy with the list build? Does it concern you that the game seems to be going positionless, but SOS loves a tall and then overlooks arguably the best to enter the system in a decade? I think all that really matters is that objectively you’re happy which was the main thrust of my earlier comment basically who cares if outsiders make an observation that SOS was the only one rating Stocker that early? Neutrals can offer insights all they like, I could have gone into further detail around the number of list changes, but no doubt most of my views can be countered.

Like you I also think expecting the number 1 pick to be the best player is ludicrous and even though I’d have chosen a different path with a couple of early picks Carlton have taken it’s a matter of personal preference rather than a assertive POV.

FWIW a lot of this will seem super critical because I think Carlton are a long way back, but I neither like or dislike Carlton and see no reason to go out of my way to pot the work they’ve done. Thing’s can turn quickly anyway. I just hope there isn’t a quick fix mentality with the board ruminating on whether a 21 year old Carlton supporter know’s what a successful Carlton is like. That would be a disaster and you seriously dodged a bullet on Shiel!

*pending confirmation of SOS’ role.
 
DFA’s are not “selections” either.

Over four years of drafting SOS has taken 18 kids in the ND and one “recycled” player in young Garlett who’d walked away from the Suns. In the PSD and rookie he’s taken 2 kids, two internationals, one Catagory-B, two players from the VFL (O’Shea also ex-Port), and 4 recycled AFL players - 2 of those in this year’s draft.

Getting Bugg and Goddard this year doesn’t suddenly create a 4 year trend of draft preference, particular when you consider SOS’s actual preference was to get Kelly in the second round.

Semantics. SOS has shown a preference for recycled AFL talent over mature age state league talent. You're trying to twist it to only include drafted players is silly.

You pointed out the facts yourself in 4 years of drafting SOS has picked up one mature age player in Galluci.
 
My understanding is that like Hine before last year he was both chief recruiter and list manager? The deals I haven’t rated were:
  • Pick 8, Lamb, Phillips, Sumner and Plowman for 28, 77, 95 and Geelongs 16 1st
How could this be a bad trade? Carlton exploited the fact that their list was horrible by taking on bad contracts which allowed them to get Plowman and pick 8 for Geelong's 2016 first (pick 17) and pick 28.

Seems like a clear win/win trade to me.
 

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Pick 8, Lamb, Phillips, Sumner and Plowman for 28, 77, 95 and Geelongs 16 1st

Breaking down this deal: Pick 8 > Geelongs 2016 1st where they finished Top 4. We picked Mckay who will be a player.
Pick 28 for the GWS four. We needed some senior experience at the time after finishing bottom. Agree that all 4 are not stars, but they have played plenty of senior football, the alternative would have been to keep guys like Jason Tutt and Matthew Dick.

  • Touhy and 2017 2nd for Smedts, 63 and Geelong’s 2017 1st.
  • Marchbank, Pickett and GWS’ 2017 2nd for 45, 58 and Geelong’s 2017 1st.

These two can be done together: We effictively traded our 2017 2nd (Pick 22 or so) and Tuohy who is an average player (crumbles under pressure as he can't defend) for Smedts (No good), Marchbank (Gun with injuries), Pickett (Very skilled and if he can get his body right will be a gun). Hardly a poor trade.

Lobbe for 95

Hardly a poor trade as the Pick is useless and Lobbe was decent at AFL level this year when Kreuzer went down injured. The Pies did a similar trade for Jordan Roughead who is surely on more coin, what are your thoughts there?

Lang and Carlton’s 2018 4th for 58 and Geelong’s 2018 4th

Lang is not exactly great but for Pick 58 and change it's not like we gave up much.

On this deal in particular it hinges on Adelaide’s finishing position which means Carlton have taken on all the risk and if I’m in list management I’m risk averse so that scares me. I expect Carlton finishes bottom 4 so Adelaide finishing inside the 8 is a loss for Carlton, IMO.

That's a very simplistic way of looking at the trade. It's more than just draft numbers. What if Stocker becomes a gun? What if we decide to trade 2 first rounders next year for Josh Kelly? What if we have a good run next year and Adelaide have a poor run? What if this year's draft is MUCH better than next years? What if we select a player at Adelaide's first next year who is better than the bloke Adelaide gets with ours? There is always risk with trades and drafting and if we rate Stocker highly then why not go for it. Reassess after 5 or so years.
 
These two can be done together: We effictively traded our 2017 2nd (Pick 22 or so) and Tuohy who is an average player (crumbles under pressure as he can't defend) for Smedts (No good), Marchbank (Gun with injuries), Pickett (Very skilled and if he can get his body right will be a gun). Hardly a poor trade.

Hardly a poor trade as the Pick is useless and Lobbe was decent at AFL level this year when Kreuzer went down injured. The Pies did a similar trade for Jordan Roughead who is surely on more coin, what are your thoughts there?

Why do Carton supporters continually rubbish Tuohy to try and make out like SOS didn't make a terrible trade? 2017 Pick 15 and Smedts for Tuohy and 2017 pick 22 is highway robbery.

And Lobbe was given to Carlton so cheaply because he was on big money and Port wanted to clear him off the books.
 
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Why do Carton supporters continually rubbish Tuohy to try and make out like SOS didn't make a terrible trade? 2017 Pick 15 and Smedts for Tuohy and 2017 pick 22 is highway robbery.

And Lobbe was given to Carlton so cheaply because he was on big money and Port wanted to clear him off the books.

Offensively tuohy is not a bad player, but he is a defensive liability. Gets found out time and again. He wanted us to pay decent coin for him and left when we did not budge our offer. If you look at that trade in isolation, Geelong “won” as Smedts was rubbish. However we did the trade to bring in Marchbank (and to a lesser extent Pickett) without giving away our first round picks. Looking at the combined trade from a Carlton perspective it’s a win/win.

Yes Port wanted Lobbe off the books but that had nothing to do with Carlton. He was serviceable at AFL level and we didn’t give anything valuable for him. We also would have traded him in on a reduced Salary.
 
How could this be a bad trade? Carlton exploited the fact that their list was horrible by taking on bad contracts which allowed them to get Plowman and pick 8 for Geelong's 2016 first (pick 17) and pick 28.

Seems like a clear win/win trade to me.

It depends on your parameters. I’m dubious it was a salary dump because all four of them were negligible cap investments, but if it was I shouldn’t have included it.

Let’s say it wasn’t and they took on 3, borderline 4, guys I don’t rate it’s really list spots v the pick upgrade and I rate list spots highly so that’s my thinking. No issue from my perspective if you or others see it differently because it could be argued they miss on Curnow if they don’t do the deal. Sliding doors and all.

Breaking down this deal: Pick 8 > Geelongs 2016 1st where they finished Top 4. We picked Mckay who will be a player.
Pick 28 for the GWS four. We needed some senior experience at the time after finishing bottom. Agree that all 4 are not stars, but they have played plenty of senior football, the alternative would have been to keep guys like Jason Tutt and Matthew Dick.

These two can be done together: We effictively traded our 2017 2nd (Pick 22 or so) and Tuohy who is an average player (crumbles under pressure as he can't defend) for Smedts (No good), Marchbank (Gun with injuries), Pickett (Very skilled and if he can get his body right will be a gun). Hardly a poor trade.

Hardly a poor trade as the Pick is useless and Lobbe was decent at AFL level this year when Kreuzer went down injured. The Pies did a similar trade for Jordan Roughead who is surely on more coin, what are your thoughts there?

Lang is not exactly great but for Pick 58 and change it's not like we gave up much.

That's a very simplistic way of looking at the trade. It's more than just draft numbers. What if Stocker becomes a gun? What if we decide to trade 2 first rounders next year for Josh Kelly? What if we have a good run next year and Adelaide have a poor run? What if this year's draft is MUCH better than next years? What if we select a player at Adelaide's first next year who is better than the bloke Adelaide gets with ours? There is always risk with trades and drafting and if we rate Stocker highly then why not go for it. Reassess after 5 or so years.

You’ve taken the time to breakdown my POV and come up with wins for most of the trades I’ve marked down so who am I to convince you otherwise on SOS.

Re Roughead I probably wouldn’t have done it and would have stuck with McLarty, but I’m very meh towards it.

Re Kelly I wouldn’t chase him. I understand the desire to bring in someone of Kelly’s talent, but I believe North have the inside running and it’s too early, IMO. To borrow a phrase I’d wait a little longer for the green shoots i.e. start the work on a big name or two twelve months from now when you’ve got the bounce behind you. For instance I’d rather add a 2019 1st, JDG (20 & 21 1st’s) and Greene (FA) to an 8-10 win team over adding Kelly to a 4-6 win team.

In terms of your run next year v Adelaide’s I’ll just say good luck, but don’t bank on it.

I don’t buy into one draft being better than another and they’re only ever judged in hindsight anyway.

I think it’s important that I leave my comments on Stocker to last and I won’t engage further because the thread is taking a risky turn off topic. There’s every chance he becomes a gun and given SOS and co rated him at 6 he’ll get opportunities. If he does get to that level you’ll be able to sit back and pump up SOS’ tyres just as Collingwood fans were doing early in 2018 when Murray looked a winner on the back of a bad deal. The thing is, just like the Murray deal, it won’t change my POV that Carlton took on the risk in this deal and that’s a big one for me.

At the end of the day you’re happy with it so who cares what I think :thumbsu:
 
Yes Port wanted Lobbe off the books but that had nothing to do with Carlton. He was serviceable at AFL level and we didn’t give anything valuable for him. We also would have traded him in on a reduced Salary.

Not saying it was a bad trade just pointing out that you're wrong on Roughheae being on more coin than Lobbe
 
Semantics. SOS has shown a preference for recycled AFL talent over mature age state league talent. You're trying to twist it to only include drafted players is silly.

You pointed out the facts yourself in 4 years of drafting SOS has picked up one mature age player in Galluci.

You’re the one who said it was only about “selections”.

If you’re talking about the whole deal, SOS’s preference has been clear; cash in whatever currency he has and hit the ND draft hard for kids - 9 first round picks in 4 drafts, 19 overall - and trade for other young recent first rounders on the cheap, like Marchbank, Plowman, Setterfield, Kennedy. When talking about guys like Kelly, Ryan, Fritsch, Rioli, Hannan, Stewart, this is where Carlton’s currency has gone, trading up and trading in for kids, not on recycled AFL players.

Until last year, Alex Silvagni was the only genuine recycled player (drafted or DFA). When Docherty went down I agree they went the recycled route outside the ND to solve a specific short term problem, but that’s hardly as a preference over the state players mentioned. There’s no 4 year trend here.
 
You’re the one who said it was only about “selections”.

If you’re talking about the whole deal, SOS’s preference has been clear; cash in whatever currency he has and hit the ND draft hard for kids - 9 first round picks in 4 drafts, 19 overall - and trade for other young recent first rounders on the cheap, like Marchbank, Plowman, Setterfield, Kennedy. When talking about guys like Kelly, Ryan, Fritsch, Rioli, Hannan, Stewart, this is where Carlton’s currency has gone, trading up and trading in for kids, not on recycled AFL players.

Until last year, Alex Silvagni was the only genuine recycled player (drafted or DFA). When Docherty went down I agree they went the recycled route outside the ND to solve a specific short term problem, but that’s hardly as a preference over the state players mentioned. There’s no 4 year trend here.

I said selections because you tried to include trades for some reason .

Just becuase you say something doesn't make it true. I mean were Matthew Wright and Dan Gorringe not DFAs in SOS's first year at the club?

Are you really arguing that Wright, Gorringe, Silvagni, Shaw, O'Shea, Mullet vs Galluci isn't a pattern?
 
It depends on your parameters. I’m dubious it was a salary dump because all four of them were negligible cap investments, but if it was I shouldn’t have included it.

Let’s say it wasn’t and they took on 3, borderline 4, guys I don’t rate it’s really list spots v the pick upgrade and I rate list spots highly so that’s my thinking. No issue from my perspective if you or others see it differently because it could be argued they miss on Curnow if they don’t do the deal. Sliding doors and all.



You’ve taken the time to breakdown my POV and come up with wins for most of the trades I’ve marked down so who am I to convince you otherwise on SOS.

Re Roughead I probably wouldn’t have done it and would have stuck with McLarty, but I’m very meh towards it.

Re Kelly I wouldn’t chase him. I understand the desire to bring in someone of Kelly’s talent, but I believe North have the inside running and it’s too early, IMO. To borrow a phrase I’d wait a little longer for the green shoots i.e. start the work on a big name or two twelve months from now when you’ve got the bounce behind you. For instance I’d rather add a 2019 1st, JDG (20 & 21 1st’s) and Greene (FA) to an 8-10 win team over adding Kelly to a 4-6 win team.

In terms of your run next year v Adelaide’s I’ll just say good luck, but don’t bank on it.

I don’t buy into one draft being better than another and they’re only ever judged in hindsight anyway.

I think it’s important that I leave my comments on Stocker to last and I won’t engage further because the thread is taking a risky turn off topic. There’s every chance he becomes a gun and given SOS and co rated him at 6 he’ll get opportunities. If he does get to that level you’ll be able to sit back and pump up SOS’ tyres just as Collingwood fans were doing early in 2018 when Murray looked a winner on the back of a bad deal. The thing is, just like the Murray deal, it won’t change my POV that Carlton took on the risk in this deal and that’s a big one for me.

At the end of the day you’re happy with it so who cares what I think :thumbsu:

That’s all fair enough and your opinions are consistent. To be fair most of those trades are debateable in terms of success. They can be argued either way as the jury is out on most. They will probably be up in the air for a while still and things can change (per your Sam Murray example).

I think Kelly or any other equivalent player is a huge get for any team at any stage of development fwiw. But I can understand your point of view.
 
Not saying it was a bad trade just pointing out that you're wrong on Roughheae being on more coin than Lobbe

Fair enough. I don’t think we can confirm either way who is on more coin as Lobbe would have taken a pay cut to come to Carlton for a longer contract and more opportunity. Thanks to the corrupt AFL and their “confidential” information.
 

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Why do Carton supporters continually rubbish Tuohy to try and make out like SOS didn't make a terrible trade? 2017 Pick 15 and Smedts for Tuohy and 2017 pick 22 is highway robbery.

And Lobbe was given to Carlton so cheaply because he was on big money and Port wanted to clear him off the books.

Because Tuohy is a tosser off the field. No great loss to a clubroom.
 
The Lobbe trade was confusing for me or i didnt get all the details or perhaps may have missed an important piece of it

Why did Carlton take him off Port Adelaide and pay him the big dollars he was on

What was in it for Carlton as he certainly wasnt a player they needed
 
The Lobbe trade was confusing for me or i didnt get all the details or perhaps may have missed an important piece of it

Why did Carlton take him off Port Adelaide and pay him the big dollars he was on

What was in it for Carlton as he certainly wasnt a player they needed

Could be wrong but I think it may have been to simply take up cap space that will be easily freed up at the end of this season. Sides can only bank 5% for 3 years after that the 5% gets distributed via the AFLPAs discretion to the players on the list that year.

Also I'd say Carlton were in need of a ruckman only having the injury prone Kruezer and Phillips as legitimate ruckman on their list. Which proved correct as Lobbe played a handful of games .
 
Could be wrong but I think it may have been to simply take up cap space that will be easily freed up at the end of this season. Sides can only bank 5% for 3 years after that the 5% gets distributed via the AFLPAs discretion to the players on the list that year.

Also I'd say Carlton were in need of a ruckman only having the injury prone Kruezer and Phillips as legitimate ruckman on their list. Which proved correct as Lobbe played a handful of games .
You could always re structure players contracts to front load them or Go flat out after a free agent with the excess $$$
Lobb was just a really strange situation as you could have got a nothing Ruckman or Casboult and Phillips could have rucked

The better option would have been to take Goldstein off norths hands as they were looking to off load his contract

just seemed a strange choice
 

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I said selections because you tried to include trades for some reason.

Just becuase you say something doesn't make it true. I mean were Matthew Wright and Dan Gorringe not DFAs in SOS's first year at the club?

Are you really arguing that Wright, Gorringe, Silvagni, Shaw, O'Shea, Mullet vs Galluci isn't a pattern?

You said selections, then moved the goal posts. But if looking at the choices outside the draft, then of course I’ll look at trades as well, and in this case, particularly trades around the picks needed to get state players like Kelly, Ryan, Fritsch, Hannan or Stewart; because this is where the preference actually takes place, not between guys taken in the second round and DFA’s.

The state picks traded out this year demonstrate this. SOS didn’t prefer Goddard and Bugg over Kreuger and McAdam. He prefered getting Setterfield and McGovern for cheap.
 
You could always re structure players contracts to front load them or Go flat out after a free agent with the excess $$$
Lobb was just a really strange situation as you could have got a nothing Ruckman or Casboult and Phillips could have rucked

The better option would have been to take Goldstein off norths hands as they were looking to off load his contract

just seemed a strange choice

Both Casboult and Phillips were injured for much of 2018. North were looking to offload Goldstein and get value on the trade table for him which wouldn't have made sense for Carlton to give up anything of value.

I don't know exactly how all these contracts work but I imagine there is a limit to how much you can front load contracts and player manager would rightly realise there is extra cap space and dig there heals in when it comes for their players to resign. There must be some value in having a player take up a chunk of cap space who can be delisted at years end.
 
You said selections, then moved the goal posts. But if looking at the choices outside the draft, then of course I’ll look at trades as well, and in this case, particularly trades around the picks needed to get state players like Kelly, Ryan, Fritsch, Hannan or Stewart; because this is where the preference actually takes place, not between guys taken in the second round and DFA’s.

The state picks traded out this year demonstrate this. SOS didn’t prefer Goddard and Bugg over Kreuger and McAdam. He prefered getting Setterfield and McGovern for cheap.

C'mon trades and DFAs are completely different only a fool would argue otherwise.

How are you refuting the below list being a clear indicator of SOS's preference for recycled AFL talent over untried mature age players

Recycled AFL players in SOS's 4 years at the club:
Wright, Gorringe, Silvagni, Shaw, O'Shea, Mullett, Bugg, Goddard

Untried mature age talent:
Galluci
 
You could always re structure players contracts to front load them or Go flat out after a free agent with the excess $$$
Lobb was just a really strange situation as you could have got a nothing Ruckman or Casboult and Phillips could have rucked

The better option would have been to take Goldstein off norths hands as they were looking to off load his contract

just seemed a strange choice

Whatcha talking about Willis ? Goldstein is on a much larger wicket than Lobbe (Norf can't offload him due to his contract.
 
You could always re structure players contracts to front load them or Go flat out after a free agent with the excess $$$
Lobb was just a really strange situation as you could have got a nothing Ruckman or Casboult and Phillips could have rucked

The better option would have been to take Goldstein off norths hands as they were looking to off load his contract

just seemed a strange choice

Gibbs trade went through, Kelly and Rockliff said no. Left excess $$ to hit minimum cap. We either restructure a number of contracts that had already been agreed upon, or pick up a ruckman on a sizeable contract and low price in terms of picks that actually addressed a list deficiency( he actually played some decent games in the back end of the season).
 
C'mon trades and DFAs are completely different only a fool would argue otherwise.

How are you refuting the below list being a clear indicator of SOS's preference for recycled AFL talent over untried mature age players

Recycled AFL players in SOS's 4 years at the club:
Wright, Gorringe, Silvagni, Shaw, O'Shea, Mullett, Bugg, Goddard

Untried mature age talent:
Galluci

I agree. Trades and DFAs are completely different. Trades cost ND currency. DFA’s do not. My argument isn’t that trades and DFA’s are comparable, it’s that trades and draft picks have more with those state picks than DFA’s or rookie picks do.

I don’t much consider Shaw, O'Shea and Mullett an indication of anything other being desperate to cover the immediate loss of Gibbs and Docherty. And SOS would gladly have snafffled Kelly to do the same in the second round, which given the currency, indicates the stronger preference. To suggest he prefered Mullett (DFA) to Kelly (pick 24) is just a nonsense way of looking at things.
 

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