Universal Love LID RECALIBRATION REQUIRED - PREMIERSHIP LID ON OR LID OFF?

Is the Lid now “OFFICIALLY” off?


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In Fagan we trust.
Jun 1, 2008
3,378
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Though why they expected to beat a top four team this late in the season is beyond my reasoning.
That'd be because we're still not seen as a top 4 side. Their 'Sack Hinkley' thread is full of "If we can't even beat Brisbane at home" posts, like as if we were still down the ladder keeping Carlton and Gold Coast company. We're good, pretty bloody good. Nobody at Port respected that, Ken "If we just tag out Neale then the rest of them will crumble" Hinkley especially.
 

Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
3,418
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That'd be because we're still not seen as a top 4 side. Their 'Sack Hinkley' thread is full of "If we can't even beat Brisbane at home" posts, like as if we were still down the ladder keeping Carlton and Gold Coast company. We're good, pretty bloody good. Nobody at Port respected that, Ken "If we just tag out Neale then the rest of them will crumble" Hinkley especially.
Reading their preview thread was very funny, especially old mate Janus who prepared several 10 page diatribes on why it was statistically impossible for Port to lose. Also, because we only beat the Crows by a point the Pear were going to thrash us :drunk:
 

luthor

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 13, 2001
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Reading their preview thread was very funny, especially old mate Janus who prepared several 10 page diatribes on why it was statistically impossible for Port to lose. Also, because we only beat the Crows by a point the Pear were going to thrash us :drunk:
The Crows better watch out next time we play them then.

Port beat them by 57 and we beat Port by 48.

It follows that we will smash the Crows by 105 ;)
 

WhiteLionFeva

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 19, 2011
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Reading their preview thread was very funny, especially old mate Janus who prepared several 10 page diatribes on why it was statistically impossible for Port to lose. Also, because we only beat the Crows by a point the Pear were going to thrash us :drunk:
Janus is basically viewed by their own as, shall we say, somewhat left field.
 

LicoriceAllsorts

Hall of Famer
Feb 25, 2013
43,645
47,297
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We will loose some matches this year, could be this week or could be the Pies at Easter. Making the finals is about how well and how quickly we bounce back after the loss. To me the "Lid Off" means we have belief we can win enough games to make the finals. Belief, vibe, culture - whatever, I do believe with the players, coaches, administration and supporters all with same belief anything is possible, we can create a club wide wave of momentum. It's true we might get there and bomb out, we might have to loose one to win one, then we could just win the bloody thing. Paradigms are often changed by someone who doesn't understand the rules of the current situation - I think we have suffered more than others and for the non-old supporters up here in Brisbane every year we get the overflow of the Rugby League in the media where Queensland is always the underdog to NSW and the arrogant NRL administration. Fagan is no dummy, he will use that if we are any where near close - let's stick it to them and the establishment. I'm daring to believe because if enough of us do then it might just create that wave of momentum and a young, brash team make shake the rules and go all the way.
Was looking for this post just about all night. Remembered it and wanted to bump it. Why can't we go all the way this year? Ok, in all likelihood it won't happen. And so what if it doesn't? Looking forward to the possibilities of this team doesn't make the pain any worse if it doesn't eventuate.

In a funny kind of way, this season/team is reminding me of the 2001 team, now stay with me here. The 01 team had remnants of players who had obviously played in big games and had shown they were capable of going deep in the finals in previous years, this team has not, that's the difference, the proof is not yet there with this bunch. But the 2001 team didn't necessarily have monumental expectations going into that season, nor did this one. Somewhere down the line the 01 team started stringing games together and created a tidal wave of momentum which amounted to knocking off a team who was considered a virtual shoo in to go back-to-back midway thru the season. Anyway, my point is, if you go back to the Saturday in the middle of the season when we beat Essendon, and said, "Brisbane will win 16 straight games to take the flag", literally no one would believe it. Funnily enough, a similar test faces this team, we can ill afford to drop any more than 3 games the rest of the way if we want to pull this off. It's daunting, but don't dare say it isn't possible. Clarkythelion is exactly right, it's all about creating the club wide belief that we can do it. Feel the difference between preseason, round 1/2/3, round 10, and now. The wave is building. Now imagine if we can keep it going for another 2 months. We will be damn near unbeatable.

In one sense, the unknown aspect of our side is our invincibility shield. Believe it or not, we're not the young kids on the block anymore. We and the club know that and are acting with that belief, showcased best thru the last 2 games. However, the league as a whole does not know that yet. Look at our side on paper, we've done a tremendous job of fitting the pieces together, to the point where we can compete for a flag. It's not just the growth of the youngsters that's caused our jump this year, we've put together a strong mix of veterans, youngsters, and the guys in between, so that tells me that, YES, we are ready right now to compete. And we have the depth to go with it.

We've show some real professionalism in the month since the bye and the debacle against Carlton. We need to do it again, we should win the next 4 games based on current form. But we can only do that if the youngsters act like veterans. We already know they can do it, just need to continue to do it. That's the next challenge.
 

mpal6

Premiership Player
Apr 13, 2008
3,802
2,427
Sydney
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I'm glad teams still aren't taking us seriously. Makes life so much easier when it comes to thumping them.
The fact that podcasts are analyzing what we're doing differently (kick to handball ratio in defense for example) is a clear indicator we'll get looked at much more seriously in the next 6 weeks. Our even midfield and high pressure forward line makes planning difficult though, not to mention a team brimming with confidence to take on anyone.
 

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Clarkythelion

All Australian
May 20, 2015
824
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Was looking for this post just about all night. Remembered it and wanted to bump it. Why can't we go all the way this year? Ok, in all likelihood it won't happen. And so what if it doesn't? Looking forward to the possibilities of this team doesn't make the pain any worse if it doesn't eventuate.

In a funny kind of way, this season/team is reminding me of the 2001 team, now stay with me here. The 01 team had remnants of players who had obviously played in big games and had shown they were capable of going deep in the finals in previous years, this team has not, that's the difference, the proof is not yet there with this bunch. But the 2001 team didn't necessarily have monumental expectations going into that season, nor did this one. Somewhere down the line the 01 team started stringing games together and created a tidal wave of momentum which amounted to knocking off a team who was considered a virtual shoo in to go back-to-back midway thru the season. Anyway, my point is, if you go back to the Saturday in the middle of the season when we beat Essendon, and said, "Brisbane will win 16 straight games to take the flag", literally no one would believe it. Funnily enough, a similar test faces this team, we can ill afford to drop any more than 3 games the rest of the way if we want to pull this off. It's daunting, but don't dare say it isn't possible. Clarkythelion is exactly right, it's all about creating the club wide belief that we can do it. Feel the difference between preseason, round 1/2/3, round 10, and now. The wave is building. Now imagine if we can keep it going for another 2 months. We will be damn near unbeatable.

In one sense, the unknown aspect of our side is our invincibility shield. Believe it or not, we're not the young kids on the block anymore. We and the club know that and are acting with that belief, showcased best thru the last 2 games. However, the league as a whole does not know that yet. Look at our side on paper, we've done a tremendous job of fitting the pieces together, to the point where we can compete for a flag. It's not just the growth of the youngsters that's caused our jump this year, we've put together a strong mix of veterans, youngsters, and the guys in between, so that tells me that, YES, we are ready right now to compete. And we have the depth to go with it.

We've show some real professionalism in the month since the bye and the debacle against Carlton. We need to do it again, we should win the next 4 games based on current form. But we can only do that if the youngsters act like veterans. We already know they can do it, just need to continue to do it. That's the next challenge.
I think the benefit we have now in assessing where our team is at is with social media. This 2019 team is probably behind on experience but the same sense I got back in February they are ahead on belief and are a much closer group with a collective belief. Zorko said really early in the season that finals were the goal, Fagan watered that down and put the lid on it. In 2001 I didn't get the sense early in the season why was to happen that sort of just came as the run of wins continued. This team believed collectively they would improve and had high goals from the pre-season. I think the club as a collective group are also ahead of 2001, we set up for success and yes, it probably came a year earlier than really suspected but we are ready. If anything I think the supporters are the ones lagging behind, the club is dragging us along. It will be interesting to see the crowd against North this week, if 25,000 or more turn up the the band wagon is rolling. I think we can go all the way, the only difference I see is that we have no Michale Voss to lift the team with his hardness at the ball in the moments when needed. Maybe we have the GWS and Port game shows when we have a down period down a couple stand up in the gap instead of just 1. Call me a romantic, i think Jarrad Berry is our boy for toughness, if he goes right through someone in the next game or 2 and starts his little purple patch we can win this dam thing a year or 2 earlier than expected.
 

paulige

Club Legend
Jul 26, 2008
1,691
584
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I think the benefit we have now in assessing where our team is at is with social media. This 2019 team is probably behind on experience but the same sense I got back in February they are ahead on belief and are a much closer group with a collective belief. Zorko said really early in the season that finals were the goal, Fagan watered that down and put the lid on it. In 2001 I didn't get the sense early in the season why was to happen that sort of just came as the run of wins continued. This team believed collectively they would improve and had high goals from the pre-season. I think the club as a collective group are also ahead of 2001, we set up for success and yes, it probably came a year earlier than really suspected but we are ready. If anything I think the supporters are the ones lagging behind, the club is dragging us along. It will be interesting to see the crowd against North this week, if 25,000 or more turn up the the band wagon is rolling. I think we can go all the way, the only difference I see is that we have no Michale Voss to lift the team with his hardness at the ball in the moments when needed. Maybe we have the GWS and Port game shows when we have a down period down a couple stand up in the gap instead of just 1. Call me a romantic, i think Jarrad Berry is our boy for toughness, if he goes right through someone in the next game or 2 and starts his little purple patch we can win this dam thing a year or 2 earlier than expected.
Mitch.
 

spotthedog1

Club Legend
Nov 13, 2011
2,086
2,993
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
The Crows better watch out next time we play them then.

Port beat them by 57 and we beat Port by 48.

It follows that we will smash the Crows by 105 ;)
I'm concerned about your maths. Adding together margins is surely an unreliable measure.

To verify your figure, I've done an analysis based on factors...

1. We are 198% of the team that Port are, and Port are 229.5% of the team that the Crows are. This means that we're 454.4% of the team that Adelaide are.
2. Total points per game for Adelaide and us averages at 156.56.
3. That shows a reasonable estimated score in BL vs AC of vs 128-28.

Your method of calculation estimated a 105 point line. My calculations estimated a 100 point line. That is within the acceptable margin of error, and therefore I'm pleased to inform you that I can corroborate your findings, and that based on recent form, it is mathematically proven that a 100-105 point margin would be an expected score.

QED
 

LicoriceAllsorts

Hall of Famer
Feb 25, 2013
43,645
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the only difference I see is that we have no Michale Voss to lift the team with his hardness at the ball in the moments when needed. Maybe we have the GWS and Port game shows when we have a down period down a couple stand up in the gap instead of just 1. Call me a romantic, i think Jarrad Berry is our boy for toughness, if he goes right through someone in the next game or 2 and starts his little purple patch we can win this dam thing a year or 2 earlier than expected.
Just remember how special that team was also. There's not many Michael Voss' running around in the league today. In fact there is precisely none that bring his mix of toughness, leadership and skill IMO, tho Selwood is close (he at least has a bit of everything). So it's not as if all the elite teams have those sorts of players. In comparison to Geel/WC/Coll/Rich/GWS, I would say that we do stack up in terms of leadership and toughness with the likes of Zorko, Robinson, Neale, Hodge, Andrews, Berry, Bailey, Cameron, Gardiner. They don't all bring the same mix that Voss did, but ours stack up with our opponents IMO. Our dominance in the middle and at clearances shows that
 

Clarkythelion

All Australian
May 20, 2015
824
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Just remember how special that team was also. There's not many Michael Voss' running around in the league today. In fact there is precisely none that bring his mix of toughness, leadership and skill IMO, tho Selwood is close (he at least has a bit of everything). So it's not as if all the elite teams have those sorts of players. In comparison to Geel/WC/Coll/Rich/GWS, I would say that we do stack up in terms of leadership and toughness with the likes of Zorko, Robinson, Neale, Hodge, Andrews, Berry, Bailey, Cameron, Gardiner. They don't all bring the same mix that Voss did, but ours stack up with our opponents IMO. Our dominance in the middle and at clearances shows that
Agreed. And Robbo takes the role Martin Pike did, its interesting to go through that 2001 team and look at the team today and see the similar players. Lappin - Hugh McLuggage. Leppisch - Harris Andrews. Keating - Martin, Simon Black - Lachie Neale, Brown - Hipwood (hmmm different styles but can both grab a game) McStay and Bradshaw. Acker and Charlie. The bigger gaps I see, and it doesn't necessarily mean the way the game is played now we need them but we don't have the 3rd tall forward in Alister Lynch or as mentions the bigger bodied midfielder in Voss but I'd argue Zorko still leads with his actions.
 

Viceregal

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2006
5,555
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Was going to mention it was mathematically impossible to miss finals ... but plugging in us losing every game from here *and* everyone winning who is below us / can overtake us ... I can just squeeze us into ninth/tenth (depending on percentage).

Of course just because something is 'possible' doesn't mean it is 'plausible'!
 

Mooch

#utfb
Jul 26, 2005
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Man I was worried for a long time tonight. But that third quarter shut down was great. It looked like North were dead on their feet but they came back in the last. Amazing finish. So please to see Rich get a big goal too. He's been a big part of this season.

At 3/4 time I said to my mate "Lions 92-72" and I was happy not to be too far off in the end :D
 
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