Lid status thread: Harold Holt

[Mattrox]

And people gave Port no credit as they hadn’t beaten anyone and couldn’t when it mattered.

Until we do nothings changed especially when we’ve got Ken Lite coaching us

We can either keep just wringing our hands and crying about Nicks or evaluating our game style and how we've gone about things and seeing if we've improved based on 2023.


2024 was pants, so improvement from there doesn't count.

 

[Samcro24]

The pass mark at the start of the season seemed to be making finals.

Top 4 was a pipe dream.

So it seems like shifting goal posts.

Making top 4 and out in straight sets would be disappointing. But adjusting the rubric mid assignment seems a bit unrealistic.

Given our stage of development as a cohort, I'd day we are tracking well. Lid still clamped firmly on. Lid to be reassessed around the bye.

I think it’s really simple.

If you win enough games to make top 4, get two home finals, have a strong home ground advantage (as we do), and can’t convert one, particularly in week 2 against a lower ranked side, then it’s a massive fail.

Doesn’t matter what the expectations were pre season, or where we finished last year. If you don’t win one then you’re just the beneficiary of a soft draw.

 

[Mattrox]

I think it’s really simple.

If you win enough games to make top 4, get two home finals, have a strong home ground advantage (as we do), and can’t convert one, particularly in week 2 against a lower ranked side, then it’s a massive fail.

Doesn’t matter what the expectations were pre season, or where we finished last year. If you don’t win one then you’re just the beneficiary of a soft draw.

But that's a black and white view not taking into account any other factors than Bradburying into top 4 on the back of a weak draw.


Get back to me when we beat Brisbane, Hawthorn twice and Collingwood.

 

[George CantStandYa]

We can either keep just wringing our hands and crying about Nicks or evaluating our game style and how we've gone about things and seeing if we've improved based on 2023.


2024 was pants, so improvement from there doesn't count.

Have answered you effectively disappeared when we were losing? Bit rich then to come on here and tell us how to post now we are winning?

There’s winning and then there’s winning. I want to keep improving to win a flag, until Nicks wipes out his rookie mistake I will keep a lid on it and critique our coaching if that’s ok

 

[Mattrox]

Have answered you effectively disappeared when we were losing? Bit rich then to come on here and tell us how to post now we are winning?

There’s winning and then there’s winning. I want to keep improving to win a flag, until Nicks wipes out his rookie mistake I will keep a lid on it and critique our coaching if that’s ok

I have been posting here on and off since 2012. A sister in law dealing with terminal cancer over the course and trying to live life while support family through a tough time makes posting sporadic.

The diagnosis was made 4 or 5 years ago and there have been several surgeries, bowel, lung, spleen and last year a pelvic excenteration. She is currently undergoing palliative chemo. So at any moment I may stop posting again.

Not that I owe an internet bully an explanation but you need to realise people have lives outside Bigfooty and you are not the posting gate keeper.

You are just sore we are in 3rd position because your axe to grind is sack Nicks. You planted your stake their and since it is never happening this year you are offended. So then you play the man, not the ball.

 

[George CantStandYa]

I have been posting here on and off since 2012. A sister in law dealing with terminal cancer over the course and trying to live life while support family through a tough time makes posting sporadic.

The diagnosis was made 4 or 5 years ago and there have been several surgeries, bowel, lung, spleen and last year a pelvic excenteration. She is currently undergoing palliative chemo. So at any moment I may stop posting again.

Not that I owe an internet bully an explanation but you need to realise people have lives outside Bigfooty and you are not the posting gate keeper.

You are just sore we are in 3rd position because your axe to grind is sack Nicks. You planted your stake their and since it is never happening this year you are offended. So then you play the man, not the ball.

I’m very sorry to hear about your sister and what you’re going through.

To be fair no one knows what you’ve been going through but since you’ve been back you’ve been having a crack at posters so it’s only natural you’re going to expect it back.

I’ve seen what we’ve achieved under this coach and his errors, we’ve beaten no one to get 3rd, you want to get excited in May go for it. I want to win finals and a premiership in September.

 

[AFC979810]

I think it’s really simple.

If you win enough games to make top 4, get two home finals, have a strong home ground advantage (as we do), and can’t convert one, particularly in week 2 against a lower ranked side, then it’s a massive fail.

If you finish 3rd or 4th you only get one home final.

 

[AFC979810]

I’ve seen what we’ve achieved under this coach and his errors, we’ve beaten no one to get 3rd, you want to get excited in May go for it. I want to win finals and a premiership in September.

Now that its June - can we get excited?

 

[Stephen2]

Now that its June - can we get excited?

Just so you know, the official Cartel mandated allowed excitement date is Friday June 13, if we've beaten Lions & Hawks

 

[Samcro24]

If you finish 3rd or 4th you only get one home final.

Oh yeah.

It’s been so long I’d forgotten

 

[George CantStandYa]

Now that its June - can we get excited?

Haven’t played a game in June yet, but telling we have some big games in June, win those and then yes, I’ll allow it

 

[Southerntakeover]

All that would do is confirm downhill skier status

And likely prevent us making the changes or improvements necessary

 

[Scorpus]

If you finish 3rd or 4th you only get one home final.

If you're a Victorian team you can get two home finals

 

[twhowler]

I'd more say that 15th to 4th is the huge improvement. Finals experience is the payoff for that improvement, and presumably a necessary component of the having a shot at a flag with this group of players. But it's not really about Nicks, it's about what a success mark for the season looks like, and for me top 4 puts the club well over whatever the minimum standard is.

To go with the Brisbane comparison a bit more, they went from finishing 15th in 2018 to 2nd in 2019 and went out in straight sets, losing to Richmond and GWS who played in the GF. 2nd again in 2020 and lost in a prelim, 4th in 2021 and out in straight sets again losing to both grand finalists, 6th in 2022 for another prelim winning two finals this time, 2nd in 2023 and made the GF, 5th in 2024 and won the flag. That was what.... one finals win from 7 games in the first 3 finals years? They then won 8 of their next 10 finals games including a narrow grand final loss and a premiership.

Obviously this is not the only way to go about it but I think getting finals experience into the group is essential as few teams come from nowhere to win a flag.

Pardon the intrusion! I always like a look on oppo boards before we play them so just having a perusal.

Our finals record was obviously a huge discussion for years on our board!

There's a sense we rose really early in 2019. Not that ready for finals. Then i think the close loss to the giants in the second final (conceded first 4-5 goals, then smashed them for inside 50s) put us on the back foot pschologically.

We did beat the tiges in 2020 but that was without Tom Lynch

Another close loss to the dogs with the same scrip (15 to 20 extra inside 50s) had us thinking we just didn't have the gameplan for finals in 2021

2022 was where it turned for us mentally. Somehow beat Richmond (Tom Lynch referral anyone) then beat the dees who had Petracca and Gawn half fit. Got smacked by Geelong but we finally had some belief.

The big addition was Daniher although he came in 2021 and two very poor finals that year.

In short - 2019 in hindsight we were a long way from ready to win the flag. But we won a flag in our 6th year in a row of either finishing top 4 or getting to a prelim. It's a pretty long path and you have players who are at their peak at the start of their run who are gone by the time you get through (i mean Jordan Dawson would be what 33-34 if you took until year 6?) so i think we actually took a pretty hard path having to try to hold the core of our squad together for 6 years and win one. Especially in the days of players changing clubs more easily

Anyway i have dribbled for long enough!

Crows look to be in it this year from what i have seen based on attack (need potency especially because you often fall behind in a final so being able to score quickly is vital), defence (much improved and underrated) and midfield (finally seems to have enough depth)

THe other big thing for us was being hopeless on the mcg. Crows to me seem to have always been decent without actually winning many lately. So i don't see it as the same level of problem

Suspect you will be a bit hot for us on Friday as you are playing better, but hopeful we come out and match your intensity. Your last big match at home you were all over geelong before getting tired / done by danger. no such issue re 5 day break

 

[GameofSloanes]

If you're a Victorian team you can get two home finals

You can get 3

 

[Coopers]

Yep. Rankine never misses set shots.

Rankine kicking the game winner, 30 seconds left against his old club?


Rankine is MADE for that shit.

 

[GameofSloanes]

We can either keep just wringing our hands and crying about Nicks or evaluating our game style and how we've gone about things and seeing if we've improved based on 2023.


2024 was pants, so improvement from there doesn't count.

We've definitely improved on 2023, how much is the question. Our (team) defence is much better, as evidenced by us being the #1 defensive side the last 6 weeks. Need to keep that up to be a threat. Forward line is excellent, midfield is much improved. We've also won a couple of away games already, including at the G, which will be important psychologically going forward. The main q we still need to answer is, can we beat very good sides. Brisbane this week may answer that 1 way or the other.

I'm no Nicks fan, but he does actually appear to have now developed a game plan that has both good attack and defence. Tactically during matches I feel he is still lacking (when we are struggling / playing better sides or coaches), but he does seem more willing to try different things than in the past. I would also like giving some rookies games so they are more ready when injuries strike, but it's hard to drop people when winning well, I get that.

At least we're managing tex and laird (and hopefully anyone else that needs it). Smith has played well (in a couple of routs) which has surprised me. The players we brought in have been excellent. Even Rob is playing well. Will be interesting when Crouch is fit as I think we are better / more dynamic without him now.

 

[Samcro24]

Rankine kicking the game winner, 30 seconds left against his old club?


Rankine is MADE for that shit.

You’d like to think so, but there was the Collingwood game

 

[BRL121]

We've definitely improved on 2023, how much is the question. Our (team) defence is much better, as evidenced by us being the #1 defensive side the last 6 weeks. Need to keep that up to be a threat. Forward line is excellent, midfield is much improved. We've also won a couple of away games already, including at the G, which will be important psychologically going forward. The main q we still need to answer is, can we beat very good sides. Brisbane this week may answer that 1 way or the other.

I'm no Nicks fan, but he does actually appear to have now developed a game plan that has both good attack and defence. Tactically during matches I feel he is still lacking (when we are struggling / playing better sides or coaches), but he does seem more willing to try different things than in the past. I would also like giving some rookies games so they are more ready when injuries strike, but it's hard to drop people when winning well, I get that.

At least we're managing tex and laird (and hopefully anyone else that needs it). Smith has played well (in a couple of routs) which has surprised me. The players we brought in have been excellent. Even Rob is playing well. Will be interesting when Crouch is fit as I think we are better / more dynamic without him now.

You can tell from the last several matches that ROB is galvanised, just by the determined way he is moving. He is clearly trying hard. The real question is why he hasn't been doing this all the time. I hope it's not only because he is trying to up his next contract with whoever.

 

[AFC979810]

Unless you win your home final. (I think).

Nope. If you lose the qualifying final you get a home final. Then if you win the home final you play an away prelim.

 

[SugarShane]

Nope. If you lose the qualifying final you get a home final. Then if you win the home final you play an away prelim.

It's actually very logical and easy to follow, which is surprising for something the AFL put together.

1-2: 2 Home Finals - double chance (Home finals are either Week 1 and 3, or 1 and 2 if they lose week 1)
3-4: 1 Home Final - double chance (Home final is either taken Week 2 if they lose Week 1, or Week 3 if they win Week 1)
5-6: 1 Home Final - single chance (Home final week 1, away after that if they win)
7-8: 0 Home Finals - single chance (All away games)

Finishing top 2 gives you 3 advantages, top 4 gets 2, top 6 gets 1, top 8 get none.

 

[FR0GGY]

If you're a Victorian team you can get two home finals

Or if port lifted their game

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Nope. If you lose the qualifying final you get a home final. Then if you win the home final you play an away prelim.

Yeah you're right. It's been a long time since I cared lol.

 

[Rotayjay]

I had a laugh with someone who said that his friend watched the first quarter of our first game, said he's seen enough, and put $100 on the Crows for the flag.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yeah surely top 4 and a straight sets exit would be considered a very successful year. Teams generally don't win flags with no finals experience.

No, a straight sets exit would just confirm Nicks doesn't have the ability to coach against the best.

This is the #1 question mark most people have right now.

We need a coach capable of matching it with the best coaches.