Liefs Wheel of Fortune

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Alright, this looks like the TAB's first attempt at a low takeout system. so let's have a closer look.

i'm not sure how this will go, apparently the markets are set at 107% and no records apart from winning figure is recorded so you can only mark against 1 out of the 3 results. Anyhow i have built something quickly that should resemble the outcomes and probabilities.

The general plan is calculate expected payout (SP represented in odds/even/split) pre-race. either race morning (surely cant win this way) or more usefully 30-5 mins before the race then if overlay declare that as a bet pre-race and cop the price whatever it is. i will update and if i don't i'll take the race morning suggested bets.

a quick overlook at the synthetic track today (yesterday now) at ballarat with what it should have paid vs what it did

Rated/Paid

1.60/1.60
1.71/1.50
1.65/1.40
1.78/1.70
6.47/5.00
3.92/5.00
4.60/4.40

average deviation from expected price was 0.6% so quinella merged pool market looks fairly accurate and i should just have to beat the SP at better than 107% plus any lagg in the system.


seems enough for a trial period.
 

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
DISCLAIMER: there may be a few gremlins in the program early days but should iron them out as 12:30 having a few cans not ideal for error free work

Will not be betting this due to pool sizes unless I start using $1 units just to keep track. Will all be pretend money hence results may not be able to be matched with high volume.
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
off to a flyer with 3 of 4 overlays in the race running first 3 big bet as rated $1.36 and higher than expected dividend thanks to a big roughie winning at $4.30. all 4 happened to be evens so a big bet.

on a worse note the best bet of the day run second so am left in the cold despite a good result here.

first bet goes

80 @ 4.30 = + $344 return.

leaving bank at guaranteed profit for the day

$1166.00 with $98 in expected pending bets for the day.

Next up #8 looks reasonable bet along with with #4 at a shade of value making evens a mid range bet. Pike looks a solid lay dragging down the value just a shade.
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
disappointing race 3 with the only horse rated under 20:1 @ 5:1 splits the even numbered horses which run 1,3,4,5.

the dividend has paid a whopping $0.00 which i assume means carryover in what should have paid around $1.60

next bet race 5 mainly thanks to a good map for megadon who i have favourite after cardiac arythmia last start in an open race. track may be a touch leader bias with the rail out 18 and persistent rain in recent weeks.
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
26,859
18,862
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
off to a flyer with 3 of 4 overlays in the race running first 3 big bet as rated $1.36 and higher than expected dividend thanks to a big roughie winning at $4.30. all 4 happened to be evens so a big bet.
How can this impact the dividend at all when it is an odds/evens bet?

If there is a $1.10 fave that is also evens but the 40/1 evens shot wins it doesn't help does it? Or am i misunderstanding how the pool works?
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
How can this impact the dividend at all when it is an odds/evens bet?

If there is a $1.10 fave that is also evens but the 40/1 evens shot wins it doesn't help does it? Or am i misunderstanding how the pool works?
the pool is a mystery to me,

it's combined with quinella pool so in theory i feel this should affect it. on the few races i saw yesterday the tote paid overs with large priced winners/second horse.
 

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iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
26,859
18,862
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
the pool is a mystery to me,

it's combined with quinella pool so in theory i feel this should affect it. on the few races i saw yesterday the tote paid overs with large priced winners/second horse.
Shouldn't it be irrelevant though as the entire quinella pool is getting paid out no matter what? Unless it jackpots which I don't think I've EVER seen. Or are the pools combined and then all winning units paid out. So if Winx is saddlecloth #8 and runs third but the places are 6-2-8 the quinella pays absolutely Chernobyl level unders because there will be a massive EVENS odds/evens payout coming out of the quinella pool?

The whole thing seems very opaque and potentially awful for quinella punters.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Shouldn't it be irrelevant though as the entire quinella pool is getting paid out no matter what? Unless it jackpots which I don't think I've EVER seen. Or are the pools combined and then all winning units paid out. So if Winx is saddlecloth #8 and runs third but the places are 6-2-8 the quinella pays absolutely Chernobyl level unders because there will be a massive EVENS odds/evens payout coming out of the quinella pool?

The whole thing seems very opaque and potentially awful for quinella punters.
like i said it's a mystery to me, even more confusing this has 7% takeout and qunella of top of my head around 20%. i imagine odds/evens being like taking a flexi quinella on fixed set of numbers at a higher return but thats where it gets messy.

like i said on basis of about 15 races i've looked at the qualitative results suggests this can pay overs when roughies come in but may be a anomaly.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Day 2 Northam: likely heavy 10/abandoned at some point looking at the radar

702889


out: $121

will try update before race 2.

Bank $1166
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Day 4, but with 2 days abandoned it's still day 2.

704037


out: $136, wont be able to update after scratching so hopefully no big ones. bank $1166

bonus tips:

Laverrod and Beat the Devil good odds against a very short pike horse in each of their races.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
so big bet r2 yesterday paid $0.00 so will classify this as a refund,

only payout race 7 $5.50 $55.00

loss $30

Bank $1136

Day 5, KALG, only computer form today.

704921


Out: $55.00

best of the day: Paradise Square
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Wins:

R3 $25 @ 1.70 +42.50
R8 $16 @ 1.60 +25.60
R9 $11 @ 1.10 +12.10

+80.20

LOSS $33.8

BANK $1047.2

CARN R1-R4 Will try update pre-start

707653
 
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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
WINS:

R1 $8 @ $5.50
R4 $38 @ $1.60

+104.80

OUT: $60

PROFIT +44.80

BANK $1092.00

CARN R5-7

707761


OUT: $39.00

BEST: R5 Rosa Filente
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,517
12,452
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
WINS:

R5 $19 @ 1.50
R6 $16 @ 2.00

RETURN: $60.50
PROFIT: $21.50 ($66.30)

BANK: $1113.50 $1122.60 made an error in day 2.

708148


OUT: $87.00
 
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