Preview Lions 2019 Discussion

jackess

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Gary Lyon and Tim Watson asking the question- Can the Lions win the flag this season?

Apparently both the Bulldogs and the Tigers were 5-2 in their flag seasons and would have been looked on as no hope at that stage of the season as well.
Definitely not based on our recent MCG form
 

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jason pm

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If (and it's a big if) we can have our best 22 out there, Mcstay can finally break out and we can keep having 30 shots a game then sure we could win.

Will we? Very, very unlikely.
Yep, I'd like to see us beat a really good side in form before I took the flag lid off, we had an opportunity v the Pies and we were disappointing.

Having a look at the draw we don't have a game like that until round 16 v the Giants.
 

jackess

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Not sure if that really works, because our recent form anywhere wouldn't be seeing us win a flag unless you toss out everything before this year.
If you compare it to our form at most other grounds over that time it would still be worse and you can't expect to win a couple of finals at a ground where you haven't been close to competitive at for a long time
 

dlanod

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Yep, I'd like to see us beat a really good side in form before I took the flag lid off, we had an opportunity v the Pies and we were disappointing.

Having a look at the draw we don't have a game like that until round 16 v the Giants.
It helps that it only looks like there's three really good sides this year - Geelong, Giants and Pies, and each of those have had their chokes already this season as well against a damaged Giants, a briefly resurgent Fremantle, and an up and down West Coast respectively.

I think our wins against Port and West Coast still look better than most on here seem to consider them - both are still likely finalists at this stage, with teams like the Saints, Crows and Dockers feasting out on the bottom eight teams to plump up their wins so far. The only win any of those three have against a team with a winning record that's not each other is the aforementioned Freo over GWS.
 

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It helps that it only looks like there's three really good sides this year - Geelong, Giants and Pies, and each of those have had their chokes already this season as well against a damaged Giants, a briefly resurgent Fremantle, and an up and down West Coast respectively.

I think our wins against Port and West Coast still look better than most on here seem to consider them - both are still likely finalists at this stage, with teams like the Saints, Crows and Dockers feasting out on the bottom eight teams to plump up their wins so far. The only win any of those three have against a team with a winning record that's not each other is the aforementioned Freo over GWS.
That's they way it looks at the moment, they seem the standouts and were the sides I was looking for in the draw. The other one could be the Tigers once they get their best side (-Rance) on the park they'll be in that top bracket as well IMO.

We play the Cats and then the Tigers in rounds 22 & 23, will be a great warm up for finals.
 

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If you compare it to our form at most other grounds over that time it would still be worse and you can't expect to win a couple of finals at a ground where you haven't been close to competitive at for a long time
Nah...

Eleven straight in Geelong.
Seven straight losses at the MCG.
Seven straight in Adelaide (six at the Adelaide Oval).
Seven straight in Sydney (five straight at the SCG and two at the Giants).
Five straight at Docklands before this year.

It was eight straight at Subiaco, though we've got a 100% win rate (1 from 1) at the new stadium.

We've been crap everywhere.
 

jackess

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Nah...

Eleven straight in Geelong.
Seven straight losses at the MCG.
Seven straight in Adelaide (six at the Adelaide Oval).
Seven straight in Sydney (five straight at the SCG and two at the Giants).
Five straight at Docklands before this year.

It was eight straight at Subiaco, though we've got a 100% win rate (1 from 1) at the new stadium.

We've been crap everywhere.
So you're saying we're a chance to win the premiership?

What year was our last win at the MCG? The ground where the grand final is played

We got close in Adelaide last year and against GWS at Blacktown last year
 

dlanod

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So you're saying we're a chance to win the premiership?
Sure. Or you do realise it's possible to disagree with the logic of an argument without thinking the conclusion is incorrect, right?

What year was our last win at the MCG? The ground where the grand final is played

We got close in Adelaide last year and against GWS at Blacktown last year
We've never played GWS at Blacktown. Only West Coast has done that for premiership points.

My point is the same as before:
Not sure if that really works, because our recent form anywhere wouldn't be seeing us win a flag unless you toss out everything before this year.
We've been hovering between indifferent and **** for 14 of the last 15 years. You think our crap MCG record matters. I think that's the least of the worries, because we've got a crap record everywhere as demonstrated. If we get a couple of years down the track and we're winning everywhere but the MCG, then it might be a salient point but at the moment it's irrelevant - if we won every home and MCG game, we'd have 13 wins and you seem to think that'd mean we're more likely to win the premiership than winning every other game except the two at the MCG and finishing with 20 wins (obviously both hypotheticals that are literally impossible).
 

jackess

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Sure. Or you do realise it's possible to disagree with the logic of an argument without thinking the conclusion is incorrect, right?



We've never played GWS at Blacktown. Only West Coast has done that for premiership points.

My point is the same as before:


We've been hovering between indifferent and **** for 14 of the last 15 years. You think our crap MCG record matters. I think that's the least of the worries, because we've got a crap record everywhere as demonstrated. If we get a couple of years down the track and we're winning everywhere but the MCG, then it might be a salient point but at the moment it's irrelevant - if we won every home and MCG game, we'd have 13 wins and you seem to think that'd mean we're more likely to win the premiership than winning every other game except the two at the MCG and finishing with 20 wins (obviously both hypotheticals that are literally impossible).
But the assumption is we'll play out of our skins in finals (at least 2 at the MCG) like the Bulldogs did. Surely you'd want the slightest indication that we can play the ground well before stating that. We could win a premiership while losing at Geelong or wherever GWS play their home games but if anything we play worse at the MCG than the other grounds we're most likely to play finals at.

We played well the last times we've played at Optus, Adelaide oval, spotless and marvel but I can't recall the last time we played well at the MCG and its been cleared we haven't adapted to the larger ground
 

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But the assumption is we'll play out of our skins in finals (at least 2 at the MCG) like the Bulldogs did. Surely you'd want the slightest indication that we can play the ground well before stating that. We could win a premiership while losing at Geelong or wherever GWS play their home games but if anything we play worse at the MCG than the other grounds we're most likely to play finals at.

We played well the last times we've played at Optus, Adelaide oval, spotless and marvel but I can't recall the last time we played well at the MCG and its been cleared we haven't adapted to the larger ground
Against pies a few years ago just before crisp left from memory we played really well there. Going back a ways. Didn’t we have a win against Essendon there, or was that Marvel?
 

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We get very few chances to improve our record at the MCG, hell we only play 1 or 2 games a season there.

If we are ever good enough to get there in September I'll back our form at the time to be good enough to win. We may also only need to win 1 game there to win a flag ie. 2 finals at the Gabba.
 

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Out of the box idea. Is it possible to play a home game at the MCG in the same way that Melbourne played home games at the Gabba in the 2000's
I'd be for it IF the Victorian government flew all BF BL posters down for the game and also covered accommodation and entertainment expenses, purely as a promotion of tourism measure.
 

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Out of the box idea. Is it possible to play a home game at the MCG in the same way that Melbourne played home games at the Gabba in the 2000's
No - that would give us less games here and the whole point is to grow the game here.

I think all Melbourne opposition games should be at the mcg - not tassie, not Ballarat. MCG
 

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Thought this was interesting.

We are one of the best attacking teams in the league but still very very poor defensively.

Wonder how we plan to fix this as the season unfolds.
 

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We are one of the best attacking teams in the league but still very very poor defensively.

Wonder how we plan to fix this as the season unfolds.
I think it's the midfield pressure and holding possession rather than our defence, strictly speaking - in our wins we're averaging 75.6 points against, good enough for 5th best defence overall. However those two blowout losses when the ball just kept coming in see our points against blow right out. Any issues start with the ball winning and retention rather than matchups.
 
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View attachment 668697

Thought this was interesting.

We are one of the best attacking teams in the league but still very very poor defensively.

Wonder how we plan to fix this as the season unfolds.
By keeping on scoring more than our opponent! Doesn’t matter how many points you concede as long as you kick more. We play a game plan built on maximising scoring that involves a certain amount of risk the other way.

Scores for/against will be more compelling after more games regardless. Essendon and Collingwood got hold of us. Other teams have played easier opponents.
 

BRAB

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By keeping on scoring more than our opponent! Doesn’t matter how many points you concede as long as you kick more. We play a game plan built on maximising scoring that involves a certain amount of risk the other way.

Scores for/against will be more compelling after more games regardless. Essendon and Collingwood got hold of us. Other teams have played easier opponents.
I think it's the midfield pressure and holding possession rather than our defence, strictly speaking - in our wins we're averaging 75.6 points against, good enough for 5th best defence overall. However those two blowout losses when the ball just kept coming in see our points against blow right out. Any issues start with the ball winning and retention rather than matchups.
I hope you are both right. Perhaps I'm correlating my general feeling of uneasiness whenever the opposition wins a centre clearance with poor defence.

Time will tell.

Would rather if the other team just never scored not going to lie.
 
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We've improved all over the ground this year, but I agree that our defence has the most improvement left in it. We're still letting easy goals through at times, and teams can still get a run on against us. If our forward line fails, our defence struggles to compensate.

What a shame we overlooked Aliir in our own backyard.
 
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