Preview Lions 2019 Discussion

[Hollow Knight]

His tap work is the best part of his game but “sublime” seems like a generous adjective.

The “he had a bad game, so what” stuff makes some sort of sense but he doesn’t have the established body of work other players do, so it’s harder to relativise it.

“He’s still got time” is probably my most optimistic read of the Archie Smith project. But the clock keeps ticking.

 

[James North]

Cool, so I don't think he deserves to be the ruckman at the moment (and he's not) and I do still think he's got time ... that's about the only thing that might be obtuse to some people.

The guy has played 11 games at AFL level ... is that really it?

I don't even think half of those games have been 'no good'.

He's a ruckman, not a key position player ... just don't think that the standard is really that high in terms of skill requirement.

I know you got really riled up at him on a game day thread recently TheBrownDog ... but I don't think overall it's been a failure, and I don't think it's over.

 

[James North]

I like to show faith in our guys but to me after 6 years on the list Archie simply does not look like he is of AFL standard. Not sure how much time he needs or will get to prove otherwise. It happens, unfortunately.

If you're prepared to call it after 11 games of AFL (I think recency bias is heavy here on that last game), that's cool.

I guess the club just wouldn't have extended him until 2021 if they thought they were going elsewhere with options.

 

[Tom14]

Stef's been remarkably healthy the last few years so in all honesty we have no idea what Archie would be like in his best position. I don't think Archie can play in the same team as Stef, but jury is out on whether he'd be a good ruck successor when Stef retires.

At the very least, it is clear the club rates him as a good backup option as the contract extension shows. It is time to get in another developmental ruckman onto the rookie list and carry 4 given Stef's age I think.

 

[Fatcat08]

What do you do that typos autocorrect to "ball ended"?

don't pretend like you don't know

 

[chopperduck]

Smith has time, rucks tend to come good mid 20s, and i think he could play a role in the seniors. But even if we had a lot of confidence in him, we would still need another ruck on the list, and i dont think you could rule out bringing in someone better/more ready then Smith if the right person came up.

 

[Nunez]

If you're prepared to call it after 11 games of AFL (I think recency bias is heavy here on that last game), that's cool.

I guess the club just wouldn't have extended him until 2021 if they thought they were going elsewhere with options.

Did you just shout TheBrownDog down?

 

[James North]

Did you just shout TheBrownDog down?

No - just offering a gentle correction.

 

[Nunez]

No - just offering a gentle correction.

Wow, no need to yell James....

 

[jackess]

No - just offering a gentle correction.

*opinion

 

[Davemonkey]

don't pretend like you don't know

Bannisters?

 

[Hollow Knight]

I know you got really riled up at him on a game day thread recently TheBrownDog ... but I don't think overall it's been a failure, and I don't think it's over.

Bloody recency bias!

 

[James North]

*opinion

As I suspected.

 

[Lionheart182]

If you're prepared to call it after 11 games of AFL (I think recency bias is heavy here on that last game), that's cool.

I guess the club just wouldn't have extended him until 2021 if they thought they were going elsewhere with options.

He had showed some good development in the twos when you compare that to the level he started but he has not continued that trajectory in my view.

Yes it’s eleven games but that’s over a period of six years! Hard not to show recency bias when he has barely played to be honest.

If he was ever going to be an option for the senior team I think he needed to have played more when we were terrible. Now that we’re actually a good team it feels like he is even further behind the 8-ball. To put it bluntly we were worse for having him in the team against Carlton.

 

[Elixuh]

I thought Smith was decent in the game prior to Carlton.

 

[James North]

He had showed some good development in the twos when you compare that to the level he started but he has not continued that trajectory in my view.

Yes it’s eleven games but that’s over a period of six years! Hard not to show recency bias when he has barely played to be honest.

If he was ever going to be an option for the senior team I think he needed to have played more when we were terrible. Now that we’re actually a good team it feels like he is even further behind the 8-ball. To put it bluntly we were worse for having him in the team against Carlton.

I don’t think it’s a huge knock on the guy that he’s been behind Stef.

Recency bias works best when you use the most recent example ... hard to point at many good players that day.

I think that was Archie’s worst game, but in the prior 10 (including being best on in his debut game), I think he’s shown enough.

Can’t clunk marks but can do a lot more in other areas.

 

[dlanod]

I think Archie's position is pretty clear - he's (still) being groomed as Stef's replacement. He just got signed for two more years. Stef's hung around longer than expected (I suspect) and continued playing at a very high level, whereas a lot of rucks drop off quickly after hitting 30-31 because they start losing their mobility and their jump. It's tended to be the bigger guys, e.g. Sandilands or Goldstein, that have played reasonably after that age and Stef is not big for a ruck.

Archie is obviously willing to stay on a reasonable backup ruckman wage and Oscar has shown definite strengths forward and in the ruck, so they compliment each other fairly well too, unlike Archie and Stef. If Stef retires or gets injured and Archie doesn't step up then we'll probably move on but until then it's basically business as usual.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Even at NEAFL level he doesn't take a lot of contested marks (he in fact took no marks in the most recent game). He also doesn't get a massive number of hitouts and seems to me is often out-reached so his leap is not necessarily making up for his relative lack of height when up against the truly big boys. Not sure what his hits to advantage are. He doesn't go forward and kick goals (his lack of marking prowess coming to the fore there). He can play that extra midfielder role I guess, ala Stef, but gee he is going to have to offer something extra you would think, and pretty soon. Next year perhaps.

 

[SizeMatters]

Archie still has a few years and I would hope we will take a development ruck this year anyways
no because archie isnt up to it but because we cant really leave it any later in case archie really isnt up to it
2 or 3 years of development into another prospect is always good esp with stef on his last legs

 

[a mayes ing]

We shoul just get the best ruckman stuck in the VFL like Oscar rather than develop an 18 year old ruck which would take 7 years for him to develop

 

[Fatcat08]

Fwiw I could see Stef playing for 3 more seasons tbh. He certainly seems to want to be here to see all the hard work pay off and he's doing an excellent job

 

[Section 5]

I think Archie's position is pretty clear - he's (still) being groomed as Stef's replacement. He just got signed for two more years. Stef's hung around longer than expected (I suspect) and continued playing at a very high level, whereas a lot of rucks drop off quickly after hitting 30-31 because they start losing their mobility and their jump. It's tended to be the bigger guys, e.g. Sandilands or Goldstein, that have played reasonably after that age and Stef is not big for a ruck.

Archie is obviously willing to stay on a reasonable backup ruckman wage and Oscar has shown definite strengths forward and in the ruck, so they compliment each other fairly well too, unlike Archie and Stef. If Stef retires or gets injured and Archie doesn't step up then we'll probably move on but until then it's basically business as usual.

I love Stef and agree rucks can drop off quickly. He has been great for us, but he is out of contract this year and turns 33 in November. The Club may only offer him a 1 year deal just like Robbo.

Grundy has been linked to Adelaide for 2020. Adelaide's 2 rucks Jacobs & O'Brien are out of contract in 2019.
I have no idea if Reilly O'Brien is interested in moving, but if Stef is offered a better deal elsewhere O'Brien should be considered.

Reilly O'Brien has been great for Adelaide since filling in for Jacobs since round 3. For those who don't know him he is 24 in August and been on Adelaide's list for 5 years. Listed as 202cm, 101kg. Average stats for 2019 - 35 H/O, 14 D, 3 M, 4 T.

Assuming we continue to play well and finish in the 8 our window for a premiership is in the next 3 years. I am not sure Archie is ready for number 1 ruck. I love what the Big O has bought to the team but can he carry the number ruck role.

 

[Dylan12]

Fwiw I could see Stef playing for 3 more seasons tbh. He certainly seems to want to be here to see all the hard work pay off and he's doing an excellent job

Yeah, I think Martin is still good for two at a minimum and IIRC he even mentioned in a recent interview how good he feels, which I think is attributable to being a late bloomer and not having played a lot of football in his early years.

 

[POBT]

I can’t be writing Smith off unless he gets a decent run as a first string ruck. Without checking, I suspect the majority of his senior games have been alongside Martin, rather than as Martin’s replacement.

He’s a different type as a first ruckman - a bit of a poor man’s NicNat if you like. Not a goal kicker or big possession winner but can do some handy things around the contest and has the type of leap that a good midfield could work with, given time to build combinations.

That said, I’d hate to be pushing for top 4 in the next year or two and find out mid-season that Archie’s not the answer. If we could find another Oscar fairly quickly, that would be a handy insurance policy.

 

[M Malice]

I just don't see Archie as the long term replacement for Stef or as a capable fill in for the big O if he gets injured, 6 years on the list and very underwhelming IMO.

I can't see Stef playing 3 more years, that would make him 37, 1 long term injury and it's over, form can also drop off quickly once you reach your early 30s let alone mid 30s.

Hopefully I'm wrong on both counts.