Lions pick 1

[Roylion]

Kelly has to want to go there and he doesn't, so I don't even entertain that angle.

Brissy punters, can you give me some input in to this scenario?

North would of course seek out pick 1 to satisfy a Kelly trade with GWS and I have seen it reported that Brisbane would need to trade out Rockliff on $800K a season to get a complimentary 1st round pick .

What do you guys think of North picking up Rockliff at $800K, in the event of the Martin trade falling over, and trading pick 1 for pick 4 and gaining pick 5 by way of compensation?

Effectively, Rockliff and pick 1 for picks 4 and 5?

The big snag is the AFL's unknown free agent compensation formula.

 

[Snake_Baker]

The big snag is the AFL's unknown free agent compensation formula.

I understand, but if it played out that way would it appeal?

The Lions could land two inside grunts with those picks.

 

[BLERN]

The big snag is the AFL's unknown free agent compensation formula.

They actually have a formula?? I mean i have heard it mentioned but it always seemed like a myth to me.

 

[Snake_Baker]

They actually have a formula?? I mean i have heard it mentioned but it always seemed like a myth to me.

It's probably kept secret to discourage clubs from pulling the type of stunt I am hypothesizing.

 

[BLERN]

It's probably kept secret to discourage clubs from pulling the type of stunt I am hypothesizing.

Like that time when it already happened last year with vickery?

 

[HeHateMe]

Kelly has to want to go there and he doesn't, so I don't even entertain that angle.

I think he might come around if saints match terms and can show that they can get a deal done.

If they manage to land pick 1 they would be stupid not to ask again.

 

[blueiris]

Kelly has to want to go there and he doesn't, so I don't even entertain that angle.

Brissy punters, can you give me some input in to this scenario?

North would of course seek out pick 1 to satisfy a Kelly trade with GWS and I have seen it reported that Brisbane would need to trade out Rockliff on $800K a season to get a complimentary 1st round pick .

What do you guys think of North picking up Rockliff at $800K, in the event of the Martin trade falling over, and trading pick 1 for pick 4 and gaining pick 5 by way of compensation?

Effectively, Rockliff and pick 1 for picks 4 and 5?

Lions would still get pick 2 in that scenario because free agency is before trade week and it's based on where a team finished

 

[Roylion]

I understand, but if it played out that way would it appeal?

The Lions could land two inside grunts with those picks.

Yeah it could. If guaranteed, to me, two Top 5 picks would be appealing.

 

[Thetrader15]

They actually have a formula?? I mean i have heard it mentioned but it always seemed like a myth to me.

Nope, it's a reliable, scientifically based system. The AFL umpires have been known to use it for deliberate OOB too

 

[Roylion]

Lions would still get pick 2 in that scenario because free agency is before trade week and it's based on where a team finished

Picks 2 and 4 would obviously be even more appealing under the particular scenario discussed.

 

[Roylion]

They actually have a formula?? I mean i have heard it mentioned but it always seemed like a myth to me.

That's why I said 'unknown'. How the 'formula' is calculated and applied is a mystery to all. Nothing is guaranteed and clubs attempting to manipulate said 'formula' could incur the AFL's wrath.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Lions would still get pick 2 in that scenario because free agency is before trade week and it's based on where a team finished

Thanks.

2 AND 4 for pick 1. I doubt there would be a club in any draft that would turn that down.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I don't think we would want to downgrade Pick 1 too far, we would still want to be at the higher end of the draft I'd imagine.

If Rayner firms as the likely top selection and the rumors of him being a flight risk are true, maybe a trade of

Brisbane out : Pick 1
In : Pick 2 and 33

Gold Coast Out : Pick 2 and 33
In : Picks 7 and 8

Saints Out : Pick 7 and 8
In : Pick 1

We still get our man we rate at number 1, while accumulating points for Ballenden. Means we could be aggressive with Ports pick and our second, look to maybe bundle them up for an earlier first rounder, knowing we had decent points for a Ballenden bid.

Saints look to get their Franchise type of match winner in Rayner. They could
simply do the deal with Gold Coast, while pocketing the mid second rounder themselves, but run the risk of us potentially taking him or auctioning off pick 1 to someone else.

Gold Coast manufacture another top 10 pick, it would be heavily dependent on how they see the talent drop off from 2 to 7/8. However they might be looking at a high list turnover too, so having multiple higher picks means they avoid having too many project/speculative picks to fill list spots.

 

[BLERN]

Nope, it's a reliable, scientifically based system. The AFL umpires have been known to use it for deliberate OOB too
View attachment 409193

Afl: do we give buddy a band 1 compo
8ball: yes
Afl: hrrm better try again. Do we give buddy a band 1 compo
8ball: yes
Afl: i think its confused lets agree to disagree magic 8 ball

 

[GUMBLETRON]

What do you guys think of North picking up Rockliff at $800K, in the event of the Martin trade falling over, and trading pick 1 for pick 4 and gaining pick 5 by way of compensation?

Effectively, Rockliff and pick 1 for picks 4 and 5?

The two legs are formally separate, so the AFL knock it on the head, because trading pick 1 for pick 4 is obviously bollocks.

 

[yellowandblack21]

The two legs are formally separate, so the AFL knock it on the head, because trading pick 1 for pick 4 is obviously bollocks.

No, but if Norf threw in their pick 21 too that would probably satisfy the AFL, almost equal points on their silly draft value index (even if they couldn't fail to see what was going on)
Given Rocky's age, the Free agency offer would need to be pretty generous to absolutely guarantee the Lions pick 2 though. Would $800k be enough?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

For first band compensation the contract needs to be within the top 5% for players aged 25 and over.

That's the top 15 players in the league, and that number may drop a little after a few more retirements.

Last year 14 players earned >$800,000 (plus at least one suspended Bomber, as they weren't counted), so in the new CBA world that might no longer be enough.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Reckon Rayner might slide to North at pick 4.

If he's deemed a flight risk then Brisbane and GC won't risk picking him and Carlton desperately need a pure midfielder, not a forward who can pinch hit in the midfield.

Then we won't go after Rayner, we need a pure mid even more than you guys.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Then we won't go after Rayner, we need a pure mid even more than you guys.

Rayner looks like packing his bags for the Gold Coast, if not then definitely Carlton.

 

[Fatcat08]

Thanks.

2 AND 4 for pick 1. I doubt there would be a club in any draft that would turn that down.

and Rockliff. The AFl wouldn't let it happen TBH. WOuld have to be another pick coming back because in isolation pick 1 for pick 4 doesn't pass any sort of logic test and collusion over FA/trades isn't allowed. Throw in your second round pick any it probably sails through.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Rayner looks like packing his bags for the Gold Coast, if not then definitely Carlton.

Yea, a half-forward-mid type would suit both clubs.

 

[Snake_Baker]

and Rockliff. The AFl wouldn't let it happen TBH. WOuld have to be another pick coming back because in isolation pick 1 for pick 4 doesn't pass any sort of logic test and collusion over FA/trades isn't allowed. Throw in your second round pick any it probably sails through.

Probably not, but after the Hawthorn/StKilda thing last year, then who knows where the line is drawn?

There's no doubt that clubs will keep pushing the boundaries.

As for the trade, then I think adding the 2nd pick makes the whole scenario unworkable unless GWS dictates they would be happy with just pick 1 for Kelly. I think they are far more likely to push for 2 x top 10 picks, rather than just pick 1.

2017 1st & 2nd round plus 2018 1st round is still feasible as 2 x 4-10 picks is viable for Kelly and Rockliff is worth pick 21, but Brisbane make out of this like bandits with the comp pick this deal would bring. Something else would have to come back Norths way. Brisbane would have to put up with 4 & 43.

 

[Taylor]

and Rockliff. The AFl wouldn't let it happen TBH. WOuld have to be another pick coming back because in isolation pick 1 for pick 4 doesn't pass any sort of logic test and collusion over FA/trades isn't allowed. Throw in your second round pick any it probably sails through.

If you also swapped next year's first round picks it would pass.

Lions counting on North being below them

 

[Fatcat08]

If you also swapped next year's first round picks it would pass.

Lions counting on North being below them

that would probably get it through and i'd probably take that bet depending on whether they got Martin or not as a FA. I'd be waiting before I made that deal to see where he ended up. If they got dusty and Rockliff then i probably wouldn't.

 

[Snake_Baker]

If you also swapped next year's first round picks it would pass.

Lions counting on North being below them

Nice theoretically, but North could have their 2018 1st round pick tied up in a Kelly trade.