Lions Season 2020

Lace Out

Full of it.
Nov 25, 2006
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Btw the bookies are only offering $2.50 for us to miss the 8 so they're not calling it a long shot
 

POBT

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 10, 2004
23,878
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I think we all need to get used to commentators writing us off. It might be simplistic analysis but there’s enough “logic” there to make it easy for the analysts to make the call for us to miss the finals.

1. Their draw will be much harder.
2. They proved in the finals that they weren’t a real top 4 side.
3. They are young and their time will come.
4. They had a charmed run with injuries.
5. Melbourne 2019 all over again.

History says that the top 8 will change and, Essendon aside, we will probably have more people doubting us than the other 2019 finalists. The Dogs are clearly this off season’s buzz side and the other 5 finalists have all proven themselves capable of playing finals regularly.
 

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bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
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Quite often teams that are written off do well. IIRC the Eagles in 2018 were predicted to be bottom 8.

Besides a lot of it is wishful thinking.
 

Saucery

All Australian
Mar 20, 2016
622
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Michael Barlow just predicted Lions won't make the 8.Cited the draw and other teams will work us out.Can feel an invitation to training coming on.
As Fagan said himself, draws can only be appraised in retrospect. How many teams would have loved to see they played us twice last year, nek minnit..... And as for working us out most great teams are predictable, that's how they gel into a champion team; not just a team of champions (yes I'm looking at you GWS, Geelong, Collingwood etc, etc).
 

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
6,201
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As Fagan said himself, draws can only be appraised in retrospect. How many teams would have loved to see they played us twice last year, nek minnit..... And as for working us out most great teams are predictable, that's how they gel into a champion team; not just a team of champions (yes I'm looking at you GWS, Geelong, Collingwood etc, etc).
Richmond are highly predictable but we still can't beat them
 

Saucery

All Australian
Mar 20, 2016
622
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Richmond are highly predictable but we still can't beat them
Hawthorn and Sydney in their power years were too. And Geelong for that matter, and further to that one of the reasons so many pundits point to the Cats and Eagles ongoing presences in finals is their home ground advantage. Yet the re-emergence of the Gabattoir seems to have gone largely unheralded. People forget what a strong hold it truly was, and will be again!
 

lionraven

Senior List
Feb 17, 2016
204
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I recommend we collect all these naysayers articles and then retweet these at them when the Lions start well next year.

I support the Ravens in the NFL. Coming into this season everyone was saying we would come last to second last. Apparently our QB didnt have any arms. So many people posted such harsh crap. Going 14-2 apparently these same people have never doubted the Ravens. These expert commentators apparently always knew the Ravens would be good this season. Thats when you retweet their old articles at them. So fun getting blocked by these million dollar earning sports pundits. So much salt.
 

BRAB

Just Hip my Wood
Oct 20, 2014
28,046
46,185
AFL Club
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I recommend we collect all these naysayers articles and then retweet these at them when the Lions start well next year.

I support the Ravens in the NFL. Coming into this season everyone was saying we would come last to second last. Apparently our QB didnt have any arms. So many people posted such harsh crap. Going 14-2 apparently these same people have never doubted the Ravens. These expert commentators apparently always knew the Ravens would be good this season. Thats when you retweet their old articles at them. So fun getting blocked by these million dollar earning sports pundits. So much salt.
I just figured out your username. I'm pretty switched on
 

Saucery

All Australian
Mar 20, 2016
622
1,487
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........

3. NO.1 MIDFIELD
You read that right. Forget Collingwood, West Coast or Greater Western Sydney. It is the Lions who have the No.1 midfield in the competition according to Champion Data. The calculations, which are based purely on individual talent, not only include the primary on-ballers but also the wings. Lachie Neale, who finished equal-third in the Brownlow Medal in 2019, leads the charge in the Brisbane engine room along with captain Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons and wingman Mitch Robinson — all of whom are rated elite in their positions by the AFL’s official statisticians. From a team perspective the No.1 rating matches up, with the Lions ranked second for clearances and fourth for inside-50s last season.

..........
Also big Tel reckons Berry will make a 'quantum leap' this year and that Lugga is going to be a 'rolled gold gun', two of his 14 breakout midfielders for 2020. Add that to the 'No.1 MIDFIELD', can't hardly wait.

 

Jivlain

Pollyanna's statistician
Sep 19, 2015
4,603
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I think we all need to get used to commentators writing us off. It might be simplistic analysis but there’s enough “logic” there to make it easy for the analysts to make the call for us to miss the finals.

1. Their draw will be much harder.
2. They proved in the finals that they weren’t a real top 4 side.
3. They are young and their time will come.
4. They had a charmed run with injuries.
5. Melbourne 2019 all over again.

History says that the top 8 will change and, Essendon aside, we will probably have more people doubting us than the other 2019 finalists. The Dogs are clearly this off season’s buzz side and the other 5 finalists have all proven themselves capable of playing finals regularly.
Last year we got 1 double up against a top team, 2 against mid-tier teams, 2 against bottom teams, the nominally hardest arrangement for a B6 team.
This year we have two against a top team, 2 against mid-tier teams, 1 against a bottom team, the nominally easiest arrangement for a T6 team.

∴ As a consequence of the weighting system, we have one game which becomes (nominally) more difficult.

More important are factors such as which teams in each tier you face, which games against the other 12 opponents are at home, over-short breaks, and the presence or absence of streak-breaker games.

Now, as for our double-ups.
Last year our double-ups included Hawthorn (who slipped from T6 to 9th) and Bulldogs (who rose from B6 to 7th). The others remained within their tiers.
We double-up against three teams we doubled-up against in 2019: Hawks, Roos, Suns.
Roos are the lowest M6 team, Suns the lowest B6 team. The Roos could slip, the Suns can't but I think they're short of significant improvement just yet.

That leaves us with Geelong and Collingwood instead of Port and Bulldogs. Which is a step-up in difficulty, but if it's enough to mean we win enough games to not earn a home final then that's on us. Certainly potential for either of them to slip as well. Of the T6 teams we could double-up against, they are probably the ones to take.

Rightio, on to those teams we play just once (and how we did against them in 2019)
Home
Sydney (15th) - home win
Richmond (3rd) - away loss; home big loss [PF]
Melbourne (17th) - home win
Saints (14th) - away big win
West Coast (5th) - home big win
Essendon (8th) - away big loss

Away
Adelaide (11th) - home narrow win
Bulldogs (7th) - away loss
Port (10th) - home win; away big win
Fremantle (13th) - away narrow loss
Carlton (16th) - away loss
GWS (6th) - away win; away narrow loss [SF]

This is where things get more interesting. If you swapped these it would be "safe" - we'd be strong favourites to win each of those home games, and to vacuum up the weak away opponents, which would put us in a very strong position. It's not that way around however. Instead our away matchups each have an element of difficulty about them. However, I think you'd want to regain honour against Carlton (though they will be stronger this year) and Fremantle's the Perth team you'd prefer to play in Perth. Each of the away fixtures is still winnable though.

Let's get to the home games.

Sydney. Traditionally a hoodoo team, but now severely weakened, and we cracked that last year. Potentially acts a circuit-breaker in a rough fixture of games (Col, @Wbd, Syd, @Gee, Ric). Good game to have at home.
Richmond. Difficult. Whacked us twice last year. Safe option would be to play this away and take the loss, but we need to learn to beat Richmond to be a flag chance. Good game to have at home.
Melbourne. Should be stronger this year, but by how much? Will depend on that.
Saints. Should be an easy win. Better swapped.
West Coast. Tough opponent, we caught them on the hop last year. At home will help again.
Essendon. Belted by them last year at the G ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Would want to rebound.

tl;dr: double-ups are the smallest increase in difficulty plausible. HvA arrangements of single match-ups introduces risk but is ultimately not that bad.
 

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Ironmonger

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 13, 2001
10,197
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Last year we got 1 double up against a top team, 2 against mid-tier teams, 2 against bottom teams, the nominally hardest arrangement for a B6 team.
This year we have two against a top team, 2 against mid-tier teams, 1 against a bottom team, the nominally easiest arrangement for a T6 team.

∴ As a consequence of the weighting system, we have one game which becomes (nominally) more difficult.

More important are factors such as which teams in each tier you face, which games against the other 12 opponents are at home, over-short breaks, and the presence or absence of streak-breaker games.

Now, as for our double-ups.
Last year our double-ups included Hawthorn (who slipped from T6 to 9th) and Bulldogs (who rose from B6 to 7th). The others remained within their tiers.
We double-up against three teams we doubled-up against in 2019: Hawks, Roos, Suns.
Roos are the lowest M6 team, Suns the lowest B6 team. The Roos could slip, the Suns can't but I think they're short of significant improvement just yet.

That leaves us with Geelong and Collingwood instead of Port and Bulldogs. Which is a step-up in difficulty, but if it's enough to mean we win enough games to not earn a home final then that's on us. Certainly potential for either of them to slip as well. Of the T6 teams we could double-up against, they are probably the ones to take.

Rightio, on to those teams we play just once (and how we did against them in 2019)
Home
Sydney (15th) - home win
Richmond (3rd) - away loss; home big loss [PF]
Melbourne (17th) - home win
Saints (14th) - away big win
West Coast (5th) - home big win
Essendon (8th) - away big loss

Away
Adelaide (11th) - home narrow win
Bulldogs (7th) - away loss
Port (10th) - home win; away big win
Fremantle (13th) - away narrow loss
Carlton (16th) - away loss
GWS (6th) - away win; away narrow loss [SF]

This is where things get more interesting. If you swapped these it would be "safe" - we'd be strong favourites to win each of those home games, and to vacuum up the weak away opponents, which would put us in a very strong position. It's not that way around however. Instead our away matchups each have an element of difficulty about them. However, I think you'd want to regain honour against Carlton (though they will be stronger this year) and Fremantle's the Perth team you'd prefer to play in Perth. Each of the away fixtures is still winnable though.

Let's get to the home games.

Sydney. Traditionally a hoodoo team, but now severely weakened, and we cracked that last year. Potentially acts a circuit-breaker in a rough fixture of games (Col, @Wbd, Syd, @Gee, Ric). Good game to have at home.
Richmond. Difficult. Whacked us twice last year. Safe option would be to play this away and take the loss, but we need to learn to beat Richmond to be a flag chance. Good game to have at home.
Melbourne. Should be stronger this year, but by how much? Will depend on that.
Saints. Should be an easy win. Better swapped.
West Coast. Tough opponent, we caught them on the hop last year. At home will help again.
Essendon. Belted by them last year at the G ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Would want to rebound.

tl;dr: double-ups are the smallest increase in difficulty plausible. HvA arrangements of single match-ups introduces risk but is ultimately not that bad.
It's great analysis, but on a much more simplistic level it's notable that we won nine of our ten double-ups in 2019, and probably should have won the tenth (Dogs in Ballarat).

If we won seven of the ten in 2020 that'd be a great result. All of the away fixtures bar the Suns look pretty challenging.

I agree the draw won't cripple our season, but all other things being equal (which they never are) I suspect it's worth a couple of wins.
 

Section 5

Senior List
Nov 26, 2018
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So this is the list in alphabetical order. I kept it to 5 games or less.

11 yet to debut : Ballenden, T Berry, Coleman, Fullarton, Joyce, C Lyons, Madden, McFadyen, Payne, E. Smith, Wooller.
3 have played 5 games or less : Hinge (2), Skinner (1), Starcevich (5)
3 from draft : Prior, Robertson, B Smith
The above quote is part of my post in the NEAFL thread. I was then intrigued as to how the other 4 youngest Clubs stacked up.
The 5 youngest Clubs in 2020 and their ladder position after 2019 H&A games. Lions(2nd), Freo(13th), Syd(15th), Car(16th), Suns(18th)

Club..:Yet to debut: Under 5 Games: Total on Playing list (figures courtesy of Draftguru)
Lions.:14..............:3.....................:46
Freo..:11..............:2.....................:45
Syd...:12..............:4.....................:45
Car....:9................:2.....................:45
Suns..:13..............:1.....................:50 (i assume this number is part of Suns package for the next 2 years)

For the Lions to finish 2nd after the H&A season and have such a large % of players with 0 to 5 games experience bodes well for the future.

Club..:% yet to debut:% under 5 games
Lions.:30%...............:37%
Freo..:24%...............:29%
Syd...:27%...............:36%
Car....:20%...............:24%
Suns..:26%...............:28%
 

Jirik13

Club Legend
Jan 22, 2018
2,752
3,452
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Suns..:13..............:1.....................:50
Suns..:26%...............:28%
Correct
Suns..:14..............:1.....................:51
Suns..:27%...............:29%

Suns also have Ace on international scholarship (only NEAFL eligible).
Suns still have 2 available spots on Cat B rookie list. They were granted 10 Cat A and 3 Cat B spots (reviewed by AFL on yearly basis).
 

Section 5

Senior List
Nov 26, 2018
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Correct
Suns..:14..............:1.....................:51
Suns..:27%...............:29%

Suns also have Ace on international scholarship (only NEAFL eligible).
Suns still have 2 available spots on Cat B rookie list. They were granted 10 Cat A and 3 Cat B spots (reviewed by AFL on yearly basis).
Thanks for the information. I have no idea how accurate "draftguru" lists are but at a glance they looked fairly up to date.
The site i got figures from has the Suns with 40 seniors 7 rookies and 3 Cat B and as pointed out no Ace on their list.
So the Suns still have a couple of spots to fill if they want to.
 

briztoon

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 28, 2015
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Correct
Suns..:14..............:1.....................:51
Suns..:27%...............:29%

Suns also have Ace on international scholarship (only NEAFL eligible).
Suns still have 2 available spots on Cat B rookie list. They were granted 10 Cat A and 3 Cat B spots (reviewed by AFL on yearly basis).
My only observation would be Ace being on an international scholarship, is more akin to an academy kid, and not on the senior or rookie lists, so I wouldn’t count Ace in the figures.
 

Jirik13

Club Legend
Jan 22, 2018
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My only observation would be Ace being on an international scholarship, is more akin to an academy kid, and not on the senior or rookie lists, so I wouldn’t count Ace in the figures.
Ace is not counted. At the moment (not including Ace) Suns have 51 players (40 senior list, 10 Cat A, 1 Cat B).
 

Section 5

Senior List
Nov 26, 2018
297
584
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My post was to indicate what a great future I believe the Lions should have after such a lean time.
We finished equal first at the end of the 2019 H&A season but have more inexperienced AFL players than the other 4 youngest Clubs.

So not so much about weather academy players were included which they are not as Briztoon has mentioned.
I suppose it was more about how this group of players have good NEAFL experience and should be ready to step up to AFL level.

So 30% are yet to debut and a massive 37% of our list have only played 5 AFL games or less.
You could argue that this is a bad situation should injuries strike.
I on the other hand think that other than the 3 draftees, anyone on that list, if selected will be up to the task.
I did watch most of the Lions NEAFL games either on Youtube or by attending the games so have an idea of their ability/potential.
Like most of us i have no idea about any good untried players from other Clubs running around in the twos.

We also have this group of players either knocking on the door or solid replacement players : Allison, Cox, Mathieson, A Smith & Lester.
Then their is the new experienced players : Ellis-Yolman, Ah-Chee & Birchall replacing Cutler, Keays, Taylor, Walker & Hodge.

I did not want to do all the 18 Clubs. But in fairness i should have included these 3 : Geelong(equal 1st), Richmond(3rd & Premiers) & Collingwood(4th)

Club:% (player numbers) yet to debut : % (player numbers) under 5 AFL games : Total on playing list
Geel:..24%..(11)..............................:.26%..(12)...........................................:..46
Rich:..23%..(10)..............................:.32%..(14)...........................................:..44
Coll.:..20%..(9).................................:29%..(13)...........................................:..45
Lions:.30%..(14)...............................:37%..(17)...........................................:..46

So by my line of thinking if Richmond's 9 +(5 from draft) players are going as well as our 13 +(4 from Draft) they are also looking good for the future.
 

Maroon Monsoon

Team Captain
Oct 1, 2019
335
491
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Always love the term "other teams will work us out"

Are they expecting the club to not do anything about it?
It's also like the idea teams have figured Charlie out because Grimes played him well. It's not like he had some remarkable insight into how Charlie played that noone else did, he just happened to match up well on him. Doesn't mean other teams/players will be able to do the same
 

rangatangtang

Team Captain
Jul 20, 2019
432
574
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Always love the term "other teams will work us out"

Are they expecting the club to not do anything about it?
I know right it's absurd that they could discount that we were one of the youngest lists with a lot of players playing very specific roles. Nah reckon were going in with exactly the same whiteboard next year...
 

Zhesty

All Australian
Feb 12, 2008
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I think it's always important to keep evolving. This year we will go somewhat from hunter to being hunted. Teams will turn up for our games and will putting a lot more time into us.

I think we do have a lot of natural progression in us but think it's always import to evolve from year to year and not go in expecting that doing the exact same thing as last year will achieve similar if not better results.
 

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