Analysis List analysis. Bright Future

[Last of the Roys]

The next table is "Average games played / number of players in the different games played brackets"

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Do we have any 200 gamers on the list ?

 

[Last of the Roys]

I guess overall those stats are a little depressing. To me they show, despite all the hype after the trade period, why we will struggle to be a top 8 side this year. We still have 2-3 years to go in terms of our development.

Although one positive I noticed in the stats is how the Lions compare in terms of number of players with more than 50 games experience. From that perspective we rank 8th in the league. So if we got very few injuries to those players, we would be in with a chance of playing finals this year.

Although note (as Big Sauce 21 has seen) we are the only team along with West Coast with no 200+ game players on our list (Jed is on 185, so he should get there before the end of the season).

"Players with more than 50 games played"

 

[Big Sauce 21]

ooops misread it, thought it had 1 next to us.

 

[Skoob]

You know me, I like to interpret stats without too much research or maths, luckily you've done so much in the area that caught my eye Last of the Roys .
I reckon our numbers show the real impact of 'The Go Home 5', taking players from the 21-23 bracket and inflating our 18-20s. And whilst you find this a little depressing for our season this year, I find it a little exciting for the future. The fact that we were forced to give games to our kids last year, is why we rank 4th in experience and 2nd in age. Pending retention rates, this could mean that in the next half dozen years, we could have one of the youngest, experienced teams. If they are good enough that could contribute to sustained relative success. We could have one of the most experienced teams in that all important 21-26 age group. The combination of experience and youth is pretty exciting. It is often considered that many players 'come of age' between 23-25, and for us, we should have that 'football maturity' combining with higher than average experience. If we have (and continue to) recruited well and Leppa can keep getting games into our youngest, this could set us up for a long period of success, like we have seen from Geelong and Hawthorn.

 

[POBT]

I think we've only got 3 or 4 players turning 21 this year. So, doing the same exercise same time next year, we'll still have a lot of blokes aged 20 or under. Fortunately, a lot of them (ie the 2013 cohort) turn 21 that year.

In terms of games played, I'd be surprised if the performance differential was that great between 100+ and 200+ games. At worst, a lack of 200 gamers may lead to a lack of leadership (but not necessarily).

The other thing to note is that, we should have a lot of blokes who will have between 25-50 games by the end of the year. I think that gets over the initial hurdle of inexperience and generally means the players are less of a liability, even if they have a way to go in development terms.

We're going to be ok this year and better next year. Don't think that's a bad place to be from a supporter's point of view.

 

[Last of the Roys]

A few more interesting facts I pulled out from looking at the list comparisons:

• Fremantle really are old - they have 17 players on their list over the age of 27, while the next highest clubs in that category only have 12.
• Geelong still have a staggering 9 players on their list over the age of 30.
• On the other end of the scale, West Coast has no one on their list over 30.
• As for the Hawks, no wonder they are hard to beat with 7 players on their list having more than 200 games experience.
• The tables indicate that Carlton was the most under-performing team last year, while Port was the most over-performing (in terms of average age / experience of their lists - although, given the lists have all changed a fair bit since the end of the season it is a bit hard to look backwards).
• The tables also seem to predict that Sydney might be in for a bit of a fall, while North is surprisingly very close to the top. Sydney only have 17 players with more than 50 games experience (4 less than us), although 14 of those have 100+ games experience (4 more than us) so it will depend how many injuries they get to these players.
• At the other end of the ladder the Saints and Bulldogs look like they will really struggle with only 12 and 13 players respectively on their lists that have played more than 50 games.

As for the Lions, I looked at how we compare to the AFL average in each category:

• In terms of age, we are down about 2 players in the 27+ age range, and we are down 5 players in the 21-23 age range (gee I wonder who they are?), on the other hand we are up 7 players in the 18-20 age bracket.
• In terms of games played, we are down 3 players in the 200+ games category, but we are up 2 players in the 100-199 games category. We are also up 3 players in the 50-99 games category but down the same amount in the 25-49 games category. Finally we have one more player than the AFL average in the 0-24 games category.

 

[Panthera]

For mine, with Rocky being named captain today - it demonstrates a seismic shift in the thinking of Leppa and what he sees 'his' team ending up. Having a look at our in their prime & about the enter their prime players and what our potential Top 4 team should or could look like; it makes for positive reading. I see 12 players / positions sorted with another 4 youngsters in the highly probable bracket (one may leave)...leaving 6 to complete a best 22 and probably another 6 on top of that for a deep squad. I haven't included Bewick and Robinson in my list as I'm not sure if they're best 22 for a Top 4 team but they are great depth players.

12 sorted

Rockliff
D.Beams
Hanley
Rich
Zorko
Redden
Christensen
Green
Martin
Leuenberger
Mayes
Clarke

4 probables

Aish
Taylor
Gardiner
Close

Now we need 6 - 10 from this bunch of youngsters to complete a really exciting team

D. McStay
M. Paparone
T. Cutler
J. Freeman
C. Beams
N. Robertson
R. Harwood
L. Dawson
R. Lester
H. Andrews
M. Golby
J. Paine
M. Hammellmann
J. Clayton
J. Watts
J. McGrath
J. McGuinness
J. Bourke
Z. O'Brien
B. Evans
A. Smith
C. Hanley

I like our chances

 

[Ceebee]

No Bewick?

 

[Slax]

What I really like is that we have only 5 players I classify as not being a part of our next top 4 tilt as they are 28 or over (Adcock, Martin, Staker, Merret & Maguire)

 

[Dan12]

What I really like is that we have only 5 players I classify as not being a part of our next top 4 tilt as they are 28 or over (Adcock, Martin, Staker, Merret & Maguire)

Adcock and Martin will be here for a few more years yet.

 

[Slax]

Adcock and Martin will be here for a few more years yet.

Give Adcock 2-3 more years Martin maybe 3-4 all things depending our tilt at top 4 is about 2-3 years away so the premiership window will be only opening when they retire.

 

[knaf]

Be tough for Jed if he is the Max Kennedy of the next Lions premiership bid. Great servant of the club who missed a grand final by the smallest of margins.

 

[Panthera]

A long waaaaay off, but gazing forward to 2017 & only looking at the below players who I see as probables in our starting 18 in 2 years time (obviously not all will be for one reason or another):

B: Clarke, Gardiner, McStay
M: Rockliff, D.Beams, Hanley, Rich, Redden, Zorko, Robinson, Aish
R: Martin, Leuenberger
F: Green, Christensen, Mayes, Taylor, Close

Obviously the GH5 was a major turning point in our recent history, but as we all know; events such as those that transpired late 2013 could shape the club moving forward.

OK, so fast forward to rd.1 2017 and, remember taking only the above 18 into account and increasing their games over the next two years by 40 - I am fairly confident we'll have a top 4 team come that September. The above players are a skilled bunch; I think 90% of them would be playing in any of the top 4 teams from last year - they just need games to mature. And, with them being thrown in the deep end early on in their careers, it bodes well for their future

Whilst the defence may need Brian Lake & Josh Gibson intake ala Hawthorn, the rest of the positions will be filled with experienced, still at / reaching their prime players.

The 18 players above will have an average age of 24.83 years - perfect!
The 18 players above will have an average games of 103 - even better.

No real issue with age as Martin will be the oldest at 30, with a 2 year drop to Leuenberger, Hanley and Zorko....all the way down to the likes of Aish, Gardiner and McStay who'll be still only 21.

But the most exciting part for me is the games tally groupings (as in the graphs at the top of the page) with the +40 games added:

0 - 49 games 1 (McStay with 49)
50 - 99 games 8
100 - 199 games 9
200 games + 0 (and won't be added to by any player during the season)

And with regards to the 100 - 199 club, there would probably be another 3 entrants during the 2017 season, meaning we'd potentially have 12 - 16 players with over 100 games experience leading into (potential) finals with McStay the only one to not have played 75 games.

All with an average age of 25

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Not sure if this has been said but according to the AFL Record Season Guide we are the second youngest list after GWS. Probably not a surprise. Pretty encouraging really when you consider the poorly performed teams below us (particularly Melb and St Kilda) are older. North are a surprisingly old side for a team that has not made a grand final recently (25+), even older than Geelong, Hawthorn, Freo and Sydney.

 

[a mayes ing]

Not sure where to put this but l read in an article saying that Ben Keays was only worth a second rounder. I thought he might have been better than that?

 

[chopperduck]

Players dont have a worth or value. Simply other peoples opinions about where they might go in the draft before they have even kicked a ball this year.

He could be a good first round pick... or he could go rubbish this year and end up as the next Conway.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Players dont have a worth or value. Simply other peoples opinions about where they might go in the draft before they have even kicked a ball this year.

He could be a good first round pick... or he could go rubbish this year and end up as the next Conway.

They do when they want to leave.

 

[Skoob]

Should we start a "Future of Ben Keays" thread?

 

[Haso]

Only a 2nd rounder? In the opinion of some dude that wrote an article?

It's definitely time to start panicking.