Recruiting List Development 2017 - How do we develop our list?

[adsla69k]

There seems to be a few schools of thought for rebuilds:

1. Senior players are important to protect and teach, lets blood a few kids with them in lesser roles.

2. Select best 22 and let kids develop through the seconds system and they'll come in when ready.

3. Blood all your kids so you can see who rises to the occassion, only elite senior players or those important structurally get selected.

There seems to be benefits to each and it's about selecting what is right for your group. Fremantle weren't responding well to the second option and switched it up to the third and are now getting good results. I think Woosha is naturally inclined for the first option, but I believe the third is what is right for our group currently.

Well Manchester United last year had a ton of injuries and were forced to play the youngsters and they started playing a better brand with them in and winning too, then the old players returned and they started loosing again lol. Soccer is different to AFL but.

 

[BrunoV]

Crameri and Hibberd left for money, Ryder was never going to stay in Melbourne. Carlisle is one I was half glad to lose, and Francis is pretty much a like for like replacement if he achieves his potential.


We got Fantasia with the Gumby pick anyway.

Crameri = Zach Merrett (We are way ahead here)

Hibberd + 59 = Begley + Clarke (time will tell, looks okay so far)

Ryder = Langford + Cooney (good value for the picks we got, but the picks were less than what Ryder was worth)

Carlisle + 23 + 44 = Francis + Morgan + Bird (If Francis becomes what we think he will then he'd cover Carlisle on his own anyway, like for like, and he's younger)


I think the thing is that we would never have been allowed to win a premiership during that period of time anyway, so in some ways liquifying assets while they're still worth a bit and getting younger players that will actually be around for our next tilt is probably good anyway.

Ryder, Hibberd and Carlisle under Worsfold but with no Merrett probably wouldn't be winning us flags today anyway, but then maybe without losing them we could've improved the midfield through free agency? How's that for sliding doors, Damo?

It has ultimately worked out for us, no doubt. But it just occurred to me that we crow about there not being an exodus and that by 2016 we'd held on to about half of the players that we could not really afford to lose (at the point at which we lost those players).

Watching Ryder last night really made the point. He is a sensational player.

 

[BrunoV]

Just enough cap relief to convince Sydney to give up the necessary pick to make the Carlisle/Francis deal work.

It does not seem to be in any doubt now.

I do remember Dodoro claiming that Bird would be best 22 when we recruited him. I wont forget because I fell off my chair and spilled my lunch.

 

[BrunoV]

Well Manchester United last year had a ton of injuries and were forced to play the youngsters and they started playing a better brand with them in and winning too, then the old players returned and they started loosing again lol. Soccer is different to AFL but.

All sport is the same in the sense that when you get the balance of players right and playing to a good system you will have a good team regardless of whether or not you have superstars.

 

[adsla69k]

We need to start making the hard calls. It might not be the time to do it yet but if things dont perk up it will happen sooner rather than later. Look at the teams flipping their lists as of round 7 and getting results this week and looking promising. Carlton, Freo, North all won with playing kids. It's not like Stanton was ever at the level of Bartel so thanks for your services and move him on.

We must have some cap space if Watson, Stanton, Hocking, Howlett, Bird, J.Merrett, Kelly, Zaharakis, Eades* all are gone at the end of the season. Thats 9 Players. Maybe one or two stay from this list but another two will be added. We need to flip 9 positions on our list at a minimum. I think our defence is good but our midfield is making them exposed.

Here is a team made from current players. Without the 9 outgoing players.

Baguely - Hurley - Ambrose
McGrath - Hartley - Goddard
Colyer - Merrett - Mutch
Francis - Hooker - Langford
Fantasia - Daniher - Tippa
Luenberger - Laverde - Heppell

Int: Myers - Green - Parish - Gleeson

Young players that have a possible a future:
Begley
Ridley
Stewart
Clarke
Draper
Mckenna
McNiece
Morgan
Redman

Unknowns:
Long
Brown
Dea
Bellchambers
McKernan

Delist or Retired:
Eades
Howlett
Watson
Hocking
Zaharakis
Bird
Jerrett
Kelly
Stanton

 

[Yoda_]

You want to make hard calls? This year should be easy to make 10 changes to our list.

Delisted;

Bird
Morgan
Stanton (retired)
Hocking
J.Merret
Long
Kelly (retired)
Watson (retired)
Eades

 

[adsla69k]

You want to make hard calls? This year should be easy to make 10 changes to our list.

Delisted;

Bird
Morgan
Stanton (retired)
Hocking
J.Merret
Long
Kelly (retired)
Watson (retired)
Eades

Its a shame players get old and retire but it happens and based on 1/4 of a seasons form we wouldnt miss them. A good mix of 10 new kids on the list would be great. A breath of fresh air actually. Cant see us signing any UFA.

 

[freddy mercury]

My two cents.

We have a few players on our list who aren't afl standard or who the games gone past.

my boy smack
Brown
Bird
Jackson Merrett
Stanton
Watson this hurts me the most.
Long
Hocking
Kelly
Morgan
Zakka
Howlett

We can get nothing from any of those, go to the draft. Look at 20-21 year olds in the vfl. Make a play for a quality outside player or a ruckmen who is mobile and can hurt around the ground. Goldstein is getable for the right price. I think Norf would be happy to talk. Probably have to give a first round pick. Is he worth it?

Such a big turnover, but it's needed.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Not sure why Brown is on everyone's list, he's been good this year!

Could have done with somebody to patrol the air yesterday because Hurley can't do it on his own and Dea tried hard but was clearly undersized ( and the umps screwed him on a couple of occasions).

Brown is way ahead of Hartley!

 

[eth-dog]

You want to make hard calls? This year should be easy to make 10 changes to our list.

Delisted;

Bird
Morgan
Stanton (retired)
Hocking
J.Merret
Long
Kelly (retired)
Watson (retired)
Eades

Harsh on Long. Would definitely have Smack going ahead of him.

 

[eDPS]

You want to make hard calls? This year should be easy to make 10 changes to our list.

Delisted;

Bird
Morgan
Stanton (retired)
Hocking
J.Merret
Long
Kelly (retired)
Watson (retired)
Eades

Cant argue with that

 

[Killer_Mike]

http://www.essendonfc.com.au/news/2017-05-08/exciting-glimpses-enthuse-coach


Exciting glimpses enthuse Coach
Simon Conway May 8, 2017 11:43 AM


BTV: RD 7 | John Worsfold post-matchWoosha spoke to the media after the match.

Essendon Coach John Worsfold says he was excited by the football his team produced in the opening half against Fremantle.

The side was unable to maintain their form, as the Dockers charged home in hot conditions to eventually run out comfortable winners.

But it was the Bombers who started best with the lead getting out to 27 points during the second quarter, before the home side recorded 11 of the last 12 inside 50s for the half, to reduce the margin at the main break to 13 points.

The Bombers record now stands at three wins and four losses.

“It’s a hard road when you’re trying to practice and learn in the heat of a season, which is the reality for us,” Essendon Coach John Worsfold said.

“We’re prepared to do the hard work.

“That the question I want to ask the players, ‘are they going to enjoy the challenge of knuckling down and going through this phase?’

“All the indications are they are, they’re ready to work hard, they are working hard.

“We’re seeing some really good things happening.

“We couldn’t sustain it today but I thought in that first half some of the footy we played was really testing Freo out on their home ground.

“The way we moved the ball, they were really struggling to stop us so we were pretty excited about that.”

Joe Daniher was the Bombers leading goal kicker. He finished with three goals while also recording 20 disposals, seven marks and five inside 50s.

“Joey is a very good footballer and he’s going to continue to improve,” Worsfold said.

“He’s still in his development phase as a tall forward and there is plenty of upside still.

“He’s a good player, he’s got areas to improve on, there is no doubt.

“He’s a developing player, but he’s a very talented developing player.

“It’s exciting to watch.”

The match also marked the return of David Myers who played across half back in his first senior match since 2015.

“’Myersy’ fought out pretty well,” Worsfold said.

“It was great to have him back, he’s worked really hard, he’s had some serious injuries throughout his career, so it was great to see him back and he’s got through the game which is awesome.

“Hopefully he can build now and show what he’s capable of which we’ve only ever seen glimpses of.”

More By Simon Conway

 

[Killer_Mike]

May explain why we are trying to rotate young kids through midfield as well as other positions.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...-champions-2017-afl-season?ex_cid=espnTW_ANZL



Footy Forensics: Stars vs. spread
Every team would love a 'Dangerwood' combination. But is an even spread of contributors more valuable than a superstar or two?
by Matt Cowgill
04/12/17

Last Saturday, a familiar scenario played out. Geelong were in serious trouble of suffering an upset loss before the dynamic duo of Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood stepped up in scintillating fashion to drag the Cats over the line, this time against Melbourne. Their game-winning heroics are fast becoming the stuff of legend. But such has been their dominance since Dangerfield partnered up with Selwood last season it begged the question - is it better to have a champion team or a team of champions? Of course, every club in the land would love a one-two punch of 'Dangerwood' quality, but the evidence suggests having a more equal team - one with multiple paths to goal and several ball-magnets - is a more reliable way to win than relying on one or two superstars.

Inequality has been falling in the AFL for years, at least on the field. Teams are sharing the ball around - and sharing the shots at goal - much more than their predecessors did in the 1990s. To measure this inequality in disposals and scoring shots, we can use the Gini coefficient -- a common measure that is equal to 100 if a single player had all the disposals or scoring shots, or equal to 0 if the ball was shared completely equally among a team's players. A higher value means more inequality.

Disposals and scoring shots are shared more equally within teams than in the past:

DATA: AFLTABLES.COM

The trend has clearly been towards more equal use of the ball within teams - both disposals and scoring shots are less concentrated than they were in the past. This trend has developed for seemingly good reasons: sides that share the ball around more tend to win games more often. On average, the more an outfit shares the ball around in a given game, the better the margin is likely to be for them.

Power Rankings: Who's rising and who's falling in week three of ESPN's Power Rankings.

Heroes and Villains: If you had any doubt to the accuracy of the old adage 'a week's a long time in football', then it was surely put to rest after a remarkable round three.


This chimes with the record from 2016, in which the cellar-dwellars tended to have a high share of their Brownlow votes going to their top vote-getter. The only good team in which a large share of the votes went to the best player was the Cats, with Dangerfield snagging nearly 42 percent of their votes.

Teams that are more even seem to do better, on average. We see an interesting example of this if we compare the 2016 premiers to the wooden spooners. Last season, the Lions' best two players performed better than the Bulldogs' best, at least as measured by AFL Fantasy points. But the further we look down the list of the teams' best 22 players for the year, the bigger the gap grows in favour of the Bulldogs. The difference between the top and bottom teams doesn't seem to be about the quality of their superstars, but about the quality and contribution of the supporting cast.

The best 22 players of the 2016 Lions and Bulldogs:

DATA: AFLTABLES.COM

It makes sense that a more balanced team would have more success. In AFL football, with 22 players on each side roaming freely around almost absurdly large grounds, no single player can hope to have the impact of a superstar basketballer or soccer player. More balanced outfits are more resilient to injuries, less threatened by health woes of their top ball-getters. Teams that don't rely on a small number of superstars have more paths to goal and are less easily shut down, with their midfields less susceptible to tagging tactics.

Research from other sports also backs up the idea that more equal teams tend to do better, at least in interdependent sports like footy. Researchers have found teams with higher player quality, but more evenly distributed quality, tend to win more games. Meanwhile psychologists have found evidence that there can be such a thing as 'too much talent' for a team, a point at which adding top-end talent can detract from team dynamics.

So which teams are more unequal on the field? So far this year, Richmond stands out for having moved in the direction of more equality. They're sharing the ball around, and sharing the scoring shots, much more than they did in 2016.

Inequality in disposals and scoring shots by team:

DATA: AFLTABLES.COM.

So, what does this all tell us? Of course, every club wants to produce and/or recruit match-winners but teams looking to bolster their prospects in the coming years might want to pay attention to the tail end of their lists. Superstars can't do it by themselves.

Matt CowgillMatt Cowgill is an economist by day and footy stats obsessive by night who thinks there's no such thing as too many graphs. He uses data analysis to tell stories for ESPN's Footy Forensics, as well as his own blog The Arc.

 

[onthemove77]

Cant argue with that

I had high hopes for Morgan. Maybe worth giving him one more year

 

[tesla1962]

I had high hopes for Morgan. Maybe worth giving him one more year

given the large number of likely outs at the end of the year, i agree

 

[eth-dog]

I had high hopes for Morgan. Maybe worth giving him one more year

Reality is he's injury prone and has shown not much in the VFL. I'd take Heppell or Nick Hind over him right now and I don't think either will become AFL players.

 

[Lore]

Reality is he's injury prone and has shown not much in the VFL. I'd take Heppell or Nick Hind over him right now and I don't think either will become AFL players.

What did you think of Hooker way back when? I feel like our approach and the possibilities for his career progression are similar. He's only in his second year and hasn't been able to string many games together to even build up his confidence in his body, let alone take the game on like he otherwise might have.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Round 4.

 

[eDPS]

Round 4.

Good to see Clarke getting a lot of the ball I think we will see him in the seniors at some point this year. Long really does need to lift and that's a shocker from hocking sadly I think he is cooked.

 

[eth-dog]

What did you think of Hooker way back when? I feel like our approach and the possibilities for his career progression are similar. He's only in his second year and hasn't been able to string many games together to even build up his confidence in his body, let alone take the game on like he otherwise might have.

Hooker had shown signs of being a good key defender in his first 2 years.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Good to see Clarke getting a lot of the ball I think we will see him in the seniors at some point this year. Long really does need to lift and that's a shocker from hocking sadly I think he is cooked.

Yeah, not to many positives looking at that but from all reports the conditions played a part.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I don't agree with it but yeah I wouldn't be surprised is Morgan gets another year as eth-dog said he's injury prone and can get on the park I still question why we took him when it was know he had hamstring problems.

 

[Yoda_]

Harsh on Long. Would definitely have Smack going ahead of him.

Dime a dozen small (who is struggling to get on the park) over afl competent tall?

Nuh

Try again

 

[eth-dog]

Dime a dozen small (who is struggling to get on the park) over afl competent tall?

Nuh

Try again

Small, outside midfielder who has shown signs of becoming a good AFL player over a shit truck undersized ruckman? Yeah, I'm comfortable with that.

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

Clarke is going to be a bull one day. Just needs to clean up his disposal.