Analysis List Importance - 2015

[AFLQLD]

Good to see Justin Clarke climbing up these rankings POBT. He has really become one of the first picked each week, and in a critical position normally handed to very experienced players. The faith that the club places in him is a tribute to his work ethic and ability to learn.

Rocky might go down as our greatest ever rookie draft pick but Clarke may not end up too far behind.

 

[Elixuh]

Good to see Justin Clarke climbing up these rankings POBT. He has really become one of the first picked each week, and in a critical position normally handed to very experienced players. The faith that the club places in him is a tribute to his work ethic and ability to learn.

Rocky might go down as our greatest ever rookie draft pick but Clarke may not end up too far behind.

He looks so much more confident than he did even last year. Looks much more comfortable being the one to transition the ball into attack off the defensive side. I remember he used to look for the safest option to palm that responsibility off onto someone else.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

 

[whatboutbob]

Rocky might go down as our greatest ever rookie draft pick but Clarke may not end up too far behind.

Rocky was a PSD pick, so Justin has a clear run at the title.

 

[Eons]

He sure was. Did some pre season training with Melbourne before we picked him up. Think they said they would take him but we swooped in first, suckers.

POBT, do you think we'll line up in round 1 with Close or opt for Staker or McGuane?

 

[winged1]

I initially thought Zorko was a bit high, but he is a very good litmus test for the side. If he plays poorly or is held we tend to lose and if he plays well we are usually right in it.

 

[Eons]

Hanley is a massive loss, just lucky we have a much easier first half of the season. To me Hanley is our most important player, when he plays well, we win.

 

[dlanod]

Rocky was a PSD pick, so Justin has a clear run at the title.

"Clear run"? You don't rate Drummo or Bushy?

 

[SizeMatters]

I'd have Rocky, D.Beams and Hanley as our most important players. Any three could be the most important depending on the day. Rich could be but for mine just doesn't get enough of it. I'd have him around the 6-8 mark. Martin and Zorko I'd have ahead of Rich for instance.

Green, McStay and Merrett are fairly high but overall I agree with the list. Really shows we are lacking when only 4 of the top 20 are KPPs.

 

[POBT]

He sure was. Did some pre season training with Melbourne before we picked him up. Think they said they would take him but we swooped in first, suckers.

POBT, do you think we'll line up in round 1 with Close or opt for Staker or McGuane?

I'm assuming that, injuries permitting, the side that runs out for round 1 will be comprised of the guys that played the last preseason game. There might be some tinkering but I think it would be a fairly big change to take Close out and put in one of the other guys.

FWIW, I just hope we don't jump around with our selections too much, particularly in the key roles. If we go with Close/McStay, then I hope we give them a few weeks to gel.

 

[whatboutbob]

"Clear run"? You don't rate Drummo or Bushy?

Nope. What have they done for us lately?

 

[Haso]

Nope. What have they done for us lately?

 

[pulpdriver]

"Clear run"? You don't rate Drummo or Bushy?

There's another guy who guys alright on our list now who was a rookie too, albeit international.

 

[jackess]

Hanley is our best rookie.

 

[dlanod]

There's another guy who guys alright on our list now who was a rookie too, albeit international.

Didn't include him because of the specific phrasing as "greatest ever rookie draft pick", and he wasn't a draft pick.

 

[matwt73]

Oh look it's POBT's long awaited importance thread.

I must turn my mind to the traditinal response of selecting and naming two players I think he has over-valued (Claye Beams, Stefan Martin), two he has undervalued (Paparone, Mayes), and then blithely congratulating him on what is a pretty solid piece of work.

"Congratulations POBT , pretty solid piece of work"

Seriously though, I think this is a good annual snap-shot of the list, and useful in terms of considering the long term prospects of players. It is hard to argue looking at this for example that the core of the side may have improved beyond, Mitch Golby and Luke McGuane, but what does it mean for a player like Ryan Lester or even Paparone. Interesting stuff.

 

[winged1]

Oh look it's POBT's long awaited importance thread.

I must turn my mind to the traditinal response of selecting and naming two players I think he has over-valued (Claye Beams, Stefan Martin), two he has undervalued (Paparone, Mayes), and then blithely congratulating him on what is a pretty solid piece of work.

"Congratulations POBT , pretty solid piece of work"

Seriously though, I think this is a good annual snap-shot of the list, and useful in terms of considering the long term prospects of players. It is hard to argue looking at this for example that the core of the side may have improved beyond, Mitch Golby and Luke McGuane, but what does it mean for a player like Ryan Lester or even Paparone. Interesting stuff.

Sarcasm is unbecoming matwt73, quite bloody funny, but unbecoming.

 

[blynd_freddie]

Sarcasm is unbecoming matwt73, quite bloody funny, but unbecoming.

Yep, a fine line between cutting and cunning...

 

[Gibbo_88]

1. Tom Rockliff (last year rank: 3)

Fully fit, I cannot separate 3 players as the most important players in our side. As the captain, the reigning Merrett-Murray Medallist and the side’s best midfielder for the last few years, Rockliff deserves to be named first.


2. Dayne Beams (last year rank: unranked)

Beams brings qualities to the club that we were in desperate need of – inside ball winning, midfield goal kicking and winning experience. He will prove to be one of the better recruits in footy history. Only the captaincy separates Beams and Rockliff in terms of importance.


3. Daniel Rich (last year rank: 2)

Perenially a top 5 player in this list. His move to the half back line could prove to be pivotal. Our ball movement is far from elite and freeing Rich up from the full time midfield rotation potentially allows us to fix a problem we’ve had since Drummond retired. A lot of the side’s success will depend on Rich having 20 dangerous touches a game. If he struggles in this role, we could struggle as a side.


4. Josh Green (last year rank: 9)

Our leading goalkicker last year is going to need to take his game to the next level if we’re to make up for the lack of quality tall forwards. It is not unusual for a small forward to be a side’s main avenue to goal. We’re probably going to need 40+ goals from him to be any chance at the top 8. One of a few players who I think could move into the elite bracket for his position and elite small forwards are great to have.


5. Stefan Martin (last year rank: 30)

While not irreplaceable with Leuenberger back and West recovering, Martin’s combination of size and mobility brings both a big body at the contest and ground coverage which is rare in a ruckman. The ruck should prove a huge boon for the Lions this year and Martin is at the heart of it. A repeat of last year’s performances, alongside the top midfield we are assembling, will make the onball brigade formidable. Add in a goal a game and he’s the All Australian ruckman.


6. Dayne Zorko (last year rank: 7)

A strength this year will be playing midfield quality footballers away from the centre square. I envisage Zorko playing a role which is the reverse of Rich – stationed forward of the footy and pushing up to the contest. Like Green, his effectiveness in this role will determine whether we can manufacture a winning score most weeks, in spite of our tall forward issues.


7. Jack Redden (last year rank: 8)

As I said at the top, the midfield is going to drive our performances this year. Redden is a handy second stringer! While his defensive efforts are always exceptional, his offensive output is often inconsistent or lacks quality. The addition of quality midfielders will hopefully allow Redden to play a blue collar game which should suit more than the playmaking role he has been forced to play at times.


8. Daniel Merrett (last year rank: 10)

Controversial! The Shane Watson of the Brisbane Lions in terms of fan “support”, I am expecting a much improved season this year from Merrett. He has been the big riser in this list over the pre-season games. With Patfull gone and Adcock moving up field, Merrett is now the experienced player down back....and seems to be doing a good job of it. I think that leadership is going to prove vital for what is a young and/or inexperienced defensive line up.


9. Pearce Hanley (last year rank: 5)

Hanley is comfortably the best outside midfielder at the club. He remains alongside Rockliff and Beams as the best and most important players at the club and would have been top 3 but for injury. However, missing at least 8 games means his importance for 2015 is diminished. A handy mid year recruit though!


10. Daniel McStay (last year rank: unranked)

Another controversial one. He is this high based purely on talent. It is a punt but the preseason signs are good. Put simply, he hits the scoreboard. If he can escape the attentions of the elite fullbacks, he is the tall forward most likely to contribute to kicking a winning score. Having said that, he could easily play more reserves than seniors which makes him the ultimate wildcard this year.


11. Justin Clarke (last year rank: 20)

Given he will take the opponents’ best tall forward each week, he is pretty critical to the side’s performances. He’s performed some great defensive jobs in the last two years with only the strong forwards like Cloke and Hawkins proving to be an issue. However, his panic when in possession is a weakness and the coaches will need to give him simple instructions in that regard.


12. Allen Christensen (last year rank: unranked)

Injuries have not allowed Christensen to really demonstrate his wares but, when fit, he is an exceptionally talented footballer. His clearance work is first class and yet he’s probably more known as a creative half forward. I suspect he will go to plenty of centre bounces before pushing forward and, like Beams, will instantly improve our clearance and stoppage work. He’s as talented as anyone on this list – it will be a matter of whether his body allows him to perform.


13. Matthew Leuenberger (last year rank: 1)

Rich aside, I tend to give blokes returning from serious injury a break in these lists. I feel the club has the opportunity to be a bit patient with Leuenberger, given Martin showed last year he could carry a ruck division with minimal help. A season at less than Leuey’s full capability would not surprise. Still, a two ruck combination shapes up being a big strength for the club if we can get the balance right – this means Leuey and/or Martin will be expected to do a role up forward at least for parts of the game. A lot depends on how well Leuey and Martin work together.


14. Claye Beams (last year rank: 19)

As the second rebounding small, the Lions need the younger Beams generating a lot of drive out of the back half. Like Rich, he is effectively a midfielder playing back which has its positives (ball winning, skill level, offensive instincts) and its negatives (one on one defensive capability is an unknown). The question for Leppa will be whether he can lock down on a dangerous small forward when required. That’s a big unknown and remains a risk for the side in 2015. He is this high because it is a critical role – if he fails, we will need to rethink our defensive structure.


15. Darcy Gardiner

Gardiner is arguably the most instinctive defender at the club now, with Patfull’s departure. He will be required to do one on one jobs against a variety of forwards but where he could have greatest impact is through his superior game sense, helping defensive teammates to kill contests. If he can start to win his own footy more often, particularly in the air, we will go some way to replacing Patfull.


16. Jed Adcock (last year rank: 13)

I think I like him better on a wing. He brings work ethic and game sense. He averaged 7 tackles a game across the preseason which is a very good effort. I get the sense he believes he’s playing for his spot and he plays his best when he’s desperate. The big question for him will be tidying up his disposal, particularly inside 50, which can range from good to woeful.


17. Rohan Bewick (last year rank: 26)

In 2013, Bewick was 13th in this list and underperformed. In 2014, he was 26th and overperformed. This year, I’d like to think that he back to being a best 18 player. One of the most improved players at the club and one of the most impressive preseason performers. His role as a wide running flanker/wingman is going to be vital for the side both when in possession and without.


18. James Aish (last year rank: unranked)

Aish is developing into a very tidy midfielder, at this early stage of his career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take that to another level this year. While I suspect midfield opportunities will be scarce for some, I can see Aish being a big part of the rotations given he shows good instincts around the contest. He will be alongside Redden in that secondary midfield rotation.


19. Lewis Taylor (last year rank: unranked)

I suspect this is a lot lower than many people will have Lewy. I think he’s a top footballer in the making – it is just that I see his role as slightly secondary this year. He’ll likely be the 3rd or 4th small/half forward. He won’t get as much time in the guts as last year. Nevertheless, his performances last year and through pre-season put him as a clear best 22 player, with his linking up in particular a vital part of our ball movement.


20. Sam Mayes (last year rank: 12)

For whatever reason, Mayes has not shown dramatic improvement in the last 12 months. That’s not to suggest he has stagnated but, for a guy who looked quite progressed in his first year, he’s probably come back to the field. At his best, he provides the creativity, instincts and ball usage that we lack. But he’s not the greatest runner and not the most physical specimen – two attributes that Leppa seems to value. He’s on the fringe of the best 22, unless things change.


21. Michael Close (last year rank: unranked)

Another wildcard for the season. He showed signs last year that he had some of the components of an effective (although not necessarily excellent) key forward in development. His ability to hold down a key post for 22 games will be pivotal. It is unlikely we will win games off his boot but there’s a structural role that needs to be played. Close’s ability to make a contest, to provide an outlet and to kick a goal or two a game will be critical to the side’s fortunes. The big question is whether he can influence games enough as he’s not been a huge presence in his career to date and the preseason games have not been particularly encouraging.


22. Brent Staker (last year rank: 15)

I have a sense of “either/or” with Close and Staker. Before the preseason games, I had Staker in the top dozen or so on this list. That’s probably a little unfair given the length of time out of the game. I still think he’s the most effective key forward at the club – but I think my expectations need to be lowered for the first part of the season. It wouldn’t surprise to see him get games ahead of Close or McStay as the season progresses which is why I have him a bit higher than the other experienced backup types.


23. Ryan Lester (last year rank: 14)

In the several years I’ve been doing this list, I don’t think I’ve got this bloke right. He shows plenty of glimpses but there are critical flaws in his game – most notably, ground coverage and ball usage. As a potential backman, he won’t have to worry about running out games like he did on ball. But his poor disposal, particularly by foot, will be magnified coming out of defence. Preseason has been OK without answering some of the questions about his capacity to play well at this level. Fringe best 22 is about right (hopefully).


24. Mitch Robinson (last year rank: unranked)

Very hard to place. I’ve got him this low, not because I think he’s out of our 22 but because I’m not convinced that he’s a lot better for the side than a taller option like McGuane or a more skilful option like Mayes. I’m trying hard not to undervalue the hardness, experience and defensive instincts he brings. I think he will ultimately be measured on intangibles and I can see his selection being a polarising issue throughout the year. I guess I don’t get the sense that Robinson playing well will be critical to our side’s fortunes.


25. Marco Paparone (last year rank: 28)

He’s progressed as a footballer but is not necessarily that much closer to a regular senior spot. Even as a fan, I find it hard to put him any higher than this. At his best, he’s a ranging wingman/flanker who finds space when we’ve got it and fills space when they’ve got it. However, while he always works hard, he doesn’t always work effectively. Moreover, his disposal is ragged and he’s poor overhead for a bloke his size. I personally think the side plays better with him in but the question is whether he contributes enough offensively.

26. Ryan Harwood (last year rank: 16)

Injury has meant he’s dropped down this list over the course of the preseason. Even though he finished last year off pretty strongly, the return and reassignment of Rich and Clay Beams would have had him under pressure for his spot. His best form at senior level has been as a scrappy, hard nosed defender who makes few mistakes and doesn’t mind a dash. He doesn’t always show that though. His running capacity is an inhibiting factor too.


27. Matt Maguire (last year rank: 24)

Maguire had a good season last year – arguably his best at the club. He’s probably not the presence he was at his peak but he has great game sense and is undoubtedly the best decision maker of our KPDs. His value lies in the fact that he is a ready to go replacement at the defensive end.


28. Tom Cutler (last year rank: unranked)

While Cutler is an incredibly promising type, I think he’s in for another development year. Even allowing for that, he’s probably not far off senior selection, even more so if injury or poor form strike.


29. Jonathan Freeman (last year rank: unranked)

I’m yet to have the lightbulb moment with Freeman. I’ve seen the promising signs – the sticky hands, the forward instincts, a physique that is only going to get bigger and stronger. There are a lot of weaknesses too though. An interrupted offseason is not going to help him – had he had a full summer, he would be easily in contention for a best 22 spot, given the other options are hardly locked in. As it stands, he probably needs to work his way back.


30. Trent West (last year rank: 21)

But for an ACL injury, West would arguably be one of the more astute recruitment decisions we have made in recent times. He showed last year he could compete as forward-ruck and as a pure ruck. He’s good insurance in case our rucks don’t play 22 games. A bit lower ranked based on his likely delayed start to the year and the fact that we have strong first string options ahead of him.


31. Nick Robertson (last year rank: unranked)

Lions fans fell for him early last year. Reports of him training the house down, coupled with his eye-catching attack on the footy, meant that he was drew a lot of attention – rightly so too, as his attitude and professionalism has been first class. I just think this is a consolidation year for Robertson and he’s got a fair few ahead of him at the moment.


32. Luke McGuane (last year rank: 18)

I am actually a bit of a McGuane fan. I think he’s an honest 3rd forward/defender who will scrap hard to win the footy. He provides good balance. It is just hard to rate him any higher based on what he’s produced at this club.


33. Jackson Paine (last year rank: 29)

Reports of a strong summer are promising and it would be nice to think that a full offseason and another year of maturing will allow him to improve. He is just one of several options in what is a wide but shallow talent pool when it comes to tall forwards. May well get games if we can’t get the forward structure right – but he’s very much plan B or C at this point.


34. Mitch Golby (last year rank: 17)

A big drop. Unfortunately, based on preseason selections, he would appear to be a way off the best 22. His most likely path to senior footy is if Leppa needs to have a re-think about his defensive lineup and decides he needs a true small defender – it is not a good place for your career to be in, hoping for the side to fail to regain your spot.


35. Zac O’Brien (last year rank: unranked)

A year or two ago, O’Brien would probably be starting most games in the midfield for the Lions. He played some decent footy late last year but is going to be starved of opportunity given he’s a long way down the pecking order now. Perhaps needs to learn a few more tricks.


36. Jordon Bourke (last year rank: unranked)

He had a reasonable development year in 2014 but has hardly put his name up in lights over summer. He’s probably lucky he plays a role (3rd/4th defender) where there is an opening in the side but he’d want to show a bit more to return to the selection mix.

Four rounds in and a lot of top players have been underperforming and the one's we needed to show improvement have had minimal impact (Green & Taylor). We're yet to see our three most important players Rich, Beams and Rockliff actually work together in the midfield and the support acts in Redden and Zorko show what they should be capable of.

Merrett probably deserves to be in the top 5 now, not because of his skills but because of his experience. Gardiner and Clarke go hard at the ball but they'd have a bit more confidence knowing someone like Merrett is prepared to throw his weight around and make the opposition earn their possessions.

 

[SizeMatters]

always going to be struggling when half of the top 10 most important players have missed large portion of the season. Taylor, Paps, Robinson definitely will be higher up next season I would have thought.

 

[Viceregal]

always going to be struggling when half of the top 10 most important players have missed large portion of the season. Taylor, Paps, Robinson definitely will be higher up next season I would have thought.

So you think we will be able to convince POBT to go around next year again then!