List Mgmt. List Management Discussion for 2021

[theiaofseed]

No thanks to Dunkley and Cerra. Would need to give away our next two first rounders and would likely need to trade someone out to get another first rounder in a trade as well.
So lose 1 good player. Bring in 2 good players. Pick no good talents in draft.

I'd trade pick 2 for Cerra he will still play for another ten years, Dunkley is a big no

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I'd trade pick 2 for Cerra he will still play for another ten years, Dunkley is a big no

I like Cerra a lot as a player and see that as a safe move but a conservative move.

Cerra will be a quality 200 game footballer.

What a move like would do is rulel out you getting a Bont etc type talent with pick 2, although it also rules out you drafting a flop.

 

[CobberRodgers]

Yes, was very much a question posed on the basis of finishing 17th and receiving the #2 pick. Rather than #1 and trading away access to the near-consensus best player, Horne.

Yep thought you meant it exactly that way. That’s the breaker, if we don’t have access to Horne/Daicos and our guys decide that what we have available after that doesn’t have a stand out, then we may try and use our first as leverage for a player and a later first or multiple later firsts.

We do have a desirable draft hand, and despite some thoughts we actually do have expendable players that will demand decent compensation if we trade.

The next 2 off seasons, entailing both trade weeks and the drafts, will shape this club.

While being s**t isn’t great, it’s also a little bit exciting to see what we can do to turn it around and to see the new Hawthorn.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Finishing second last will not give us access to one of the clear top two talents, given Daicos is going to Collingwood. We really need to finish last so we can draft Horne.

 

[TylerDurden]

Finishing second last will not give us access to one of the clear top two talents, given Daicos is going to Collingwood. We really need to finish last so we can draft Horne.

Nailed it. It's these 2, then daylight.

 

[m0zza]

I am getting tired of the misinformation about where our first round picks went. (Details of over-priced trades are just tedious)

2009 Pick 9 traded for Shaun Burgoyne
2010 Pick 19 Isaac Smith (Pushed way back by Gold Coast start up)
2011 Pick 24 traded for Jack Gunston (Pushed back by GWS start up)
2012 Pick 21 traded for Brian Lake and 27 on-traded with Gilham for 28 (Tim O'Brien) and Jed Anderson
2013 Pick 18 +19 traded for 24 (Billy Hartung) and Ben McEvoy
2014 Pick 19 traded for Jon O'Rourke
2015 Jed Anderson traded for 15 pushed back to 19 Ryan Burton and Pick 19 pushed back to 22 Kieran Lovell
2016 14 Traded for Tom Mitchell
2017 7 Traded for Jaeger O'Meara in 2016
2018 15 Traded for Chad Wingard
2019 13 Will Day
2020 6 Denver Grainger Barass

While we overpaid for O'Meara and Wingard, the real damage had already been done

 

[RoughysMullet]

Finishing second last will not give us access to one of the clear top two talents, given Daicos is going to Collingwood. We really need to finish last so we can draft Horne.

North already have number 1 pick wrapped up IMO. With their percentage they would have to win 2 more games than us and we would have go winless for the rest of the season.
I can see us finding some confidence when the pressure is off and winning a late meaningless game or two to ensure we don’t finish last..

 

[theiaofseed]

Nailed it. It's these 2, then daylight.

How often is the number one pick ever the best player in the draft? Maybe two times in the last 2 decades. Without a doubt there will be a player taken 10+ that will be as good if not better.

 

[rei154]

I am getting tired of the misinformation about where our first round picks went. (Details of over-priced trades are just tedious)

2009 Pick 9 traded for Shaun Burgoyne
2010 Pick 19 Isaac Smith (Pushed way back by Gold Coast start up)
2011 Pick 24 traded for Jack Gunston (Pushed back by GWS start up)
2012 Pick 21 traded for Brian Lake and 27 on-traded with Gilham for 28 (Tim O'Brien) and Jed Anderson
2013 Pick 18 +19 traded for 24 (Billy Hartung) and Ben McEvoy
2014 Pick 19 traded for Jon O'Rourke
2015 Jed Anderson traded for 15 pushed back to 19 Ryan Burton and Pick 19 pushed back to 22 Kieran Lovell
2016 14 Traded for Tom Mitchell
2017 7 Traded for Jaeger O'Meara in 2016
2018 15 Traded for Chad Wingard
2019 13 Will Day
2020 6 Denver Grainger Barass

While we overpaid for O'Meara and Wingard, the real damage had already been done

It's interesting- the discussion around us drafting midfielders gets painted in a slightly different light when we throw Jed Anderson into the picture too. He's a real strong contributor at North and I remember being quite sad when we lost him.

 

[toomanysquibs]

How often is the number one pick ever the best player in the draft? Maybe two times in the last 2 decades. Without a doubt there will be a player taken 10+ that will be as good if not better.

This is true, the only problem being the player or two that turns out to be the better prospect long term is usually identified by maybe a few clubs only, and they are also a perfect match for the development team managing their rise. Drafting is a mixture of science and luck. Hindsight might make it all seem academic, but there's a lot of factors behind players becoming the best player in their draft year.

If it was easy, nobody would balls it up.

Horne looks like a freak athlete imo. I think we will likely win more games though, and he's going to find himself at Arden street. Sad but true, because we truly need someone with his game bursting ability.

 

[The Chad and I]

Would you trade our first round pick (top 2 at this stage) for Cerra and Freo's first round pick? Likely to be a top 10 pick too.

Edit: This is based on us receiving the #2 pick and not Pick 1 by the way.

A player into his fourth season and averaging a max of 21 disposals per game is not worth a top 5 pick - especially in a strong draft!

 

[Mercy Seat]

North already have number 1 pick wrapped up IMO. With their percentage they would have to win 2 more games than us and we would have go winless for the rest of the season.
I can see us finding some confidence when the pressure is off and winning a late meaningless game or two to ensure we don’t finish last..

I would almost guarantee it. GC for one, plus we’ll have celebratory games for Burgoyne, plus Gunston + Day to come back, maybe even Sicily. As bad as we have been the last month, form like this don’t last forever, and we still have a lot more talent than north, albeit with older players. They like to eek out wins towards the end, I’d say we pick up min 2.

 

[Brant]

I can see us finding some confidence when the pressure is off and winning a late meaningless game or two to ensure we don’t finish last..

Aaahhh, the 'Clarkson Paradox' of 2017 & 2019 in play.

Play garbage for a many games as required to ensure finals are out of the question, then come home strong to even out the Draft hand.

 

[TylerDurden]

I'm just hypothesizing this based upon Clarkson's preference to grab ready made players in recent times, and if North finish last and take Horne, with Collingwood grabbing Daicos, then would Hawthorn weigh up whether there was less risk with Cerra compared to who they might grab in the draft?

I dont think Cerra is that good. We'll use pick 2.

 

[CobberRodgers]

I'm just hypothesizing this based upon Clarkson's preference to grab ready made players in recent times, and if North finish last and take Horne, with Collingwood grabbing Daicos, then would Hawthorn weigh up whether there was less risk with Cerra compared to who they might grab in the draft?

If we had eyes on another kid that was going to be in the 10-20 range then it would be a possibility.

There’s no way we don’t have a first round pick though no matter what trading we do. It would have to be Cerra and a first back for our higher first no doubt. Whether either club is willing to do that I don’t know, but there’s no way we don’t have a first round pick this draft IMO.

 

[Blackhawk42]

A player into his fourth season and averaging a max of 21 disposals per game is not worth a top 5 pick - especially in a strong draft!

i'm not suggesting trading pick 2 for Cerra, but that's a lazy comment. He's going to be a star. One of those players who won't need 35 touches to dominate.
Still super young and only getting better.

BTW, he's averaging 21 disposals this season and was injured and played no further part after 4 touches in round 5. Actual average is 24.4.

 

[LMGjr]

I am getting tired of the misinformation about where our first round picks went. (Details of over-priced trades are just tedious)

2009 Pick 9 traded for Shaun Burgoyne
2010 Pick 19 Isaac Smith (Pushed way back by Gold Coast start up)
2011 Pick 24 traded for Jack Gunston (Pushed back by GWS start up)
2012 Pick 21 traded for Brian Lake and 27 on-traded with Gilham for 28 (Tim O'Brien) and Jed Anderson
2013 Pick 18 +19 traded for 24 (Billy Hartung) and Ben McEvoy
2014 Pick 19 traded for Jon O'Rourke
2015 Jed Anderson traded for 15 pushed back to 19 Ryan Burton and Pick 19 pushed back to 22 Kieran Lovell
2016 14 Traded for Tom Mitchell
2017 7 Traded for Jaeger O'Meara in 2016
2018 15 Traded for Chad Wingard
2019 13 Will Day
2020 6 Denver Grainger Barass

While we overpaid for O'Meara and Wingard, the real damage had already been done

Yep - O'Meara and Wingard should have been the cherry's, not the whole bloody cake.

All we can now is give our new guys in charge of recruiting a chance.

 

[MJA33]

I dont think Cerra is that good. We'll use pick 2.

Agree with this - not worth giving up a top 10 pick for.

 

[Ashman23]

Interesting reading the list of first rounder usage.

It doesn't matter now but had O'Rourke, Hartung and Lovell had come on, we'd be looking back differently now.

 

[Davo-27]

How often is the number one pick ever the best player in the draft? Maybe two times in the last 2 decades. Without a doubt there will be a player taken 10+ that will be as good if not better.

There are variables to consider, 1 is talent, 2 is whether the club a player goes to gives him fair opportunities, 3 whether a club has good systems and coaches set up for the young player to succeed, 4 how mentally strong and capable the young player is to handle the pressures of being in the public spotlight and crowds, semi celebrity status 5 how healthy his body is to give him the best chance of continuity, 6 how determined he is to make it or be the best he can be.

Because of these variables, some can leap frog more fancied youngsters.

 

[killerspud]

What chance we trade for pick 1??
North have an abundance of young midfield talent. Might they decide this year they take the best Key available in which which case why use pick 1. If Horne really is THAT good then why don't we offer North our first and a future second or a player for their no 1.

Would be the first time we've done that and that turned out OK

 

[LMGjr]

While being sh*t isn’t great, it’s also a little bit exciting to see what we can do to turn it around and to see the new Hawthorn.

This is it.

This all that matters.

Not the past.

NOW.

 

[Billyc]

I have had a look at young Daicos a couple of times, and don't get me wrong, the kids a good player, but if he was going pick 1, then I reckon this would be a weak draft.

He's a slight upgrade on his brother, and again, don't get me wrong, I reckon Josh is a good young player too.

The field has yet to really settle.

Suggestions seem to be that this is looking like a weak draft, like 2017, and that Daicos and Horne are a fair way ahead of the pack. Plenty of time to go though, as you say.

 

[daniel23]

I have had a look at young Daicos a couple of times, and don't get me wrong, the kids a good player, but if he was going pick 1, then I reckon this would be a weak draft.

He's a slight upgrade on his brother, and again, don't get me wrong, I reckon Josh is a good young player too.

The field has yet to really settle.

Completely agree , we have so far seen 4 rounds of nab league played in 2 seasons. I won't all be surprised post champs to see players currently rated outside the 10 come in contention for top 5.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Whatever we do, we have to force Collingwood into using their first pick on daicos like the Crows did with that Hagen kid.
The roos have proven several times over since bidding came in that they don't have the balls to make am early bid