All sides we've played so far have been sides many would expect to be in finals contention. That no longer seems the case with Brisbane. It's been a horrendous draw. I still expect us to put in a good showing against North (who are clearly better than us but who sometimes seem to struggle with us), GC, GWS and Melbourne at least. I also think that with a full side, presuming we get a better run with injuries to senior players late in the year, we will manage an upset or two somewhere along the way. I would expect that we will finish with 6-7 wins, which would be a poor result but will not net us the spoon.
Richmond debacle aside, we're clearly much stronger at Etihad than other grounds (perhaps because our issues with run are not so exposed) so I would give us a fighting chance in rounds 7-9 (and possibly against Port, though they seem much improved), 14, 15 and 23.
Generally, I think we are still better than GC, GWS, Melbourne, Brisbane and possibly St Kilda. I may be wrong.