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List Prediction for 2004

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Eagle Eye

Team Captain
May 8, 2002
468
13
In another world
AFL Club
St Kilda
Lets see how close this is for 2004:

1. Blake Caracella: had some ordinary times during year,
but showed his class when in space in the most
important game
2. Chris Johnson: a legend
3. Michael Voss: the biggest legend (Queenslander)
4. Craig McRae: very important, should go around again
in 2004, if only to help the “young guns”
5. Brad Scott: will be back meaner than ever in 2004
6. Luke Power: should try very hard to hang on to, but
if he wants to go home will be great “trade bait”
7. Jason Gram: showed some good form when given a
chance, maybe not the “hardness” profile that the
Lions like – possible “trade bait”
8. Tim Notting: season impacted by terrible injury, would
be nice to keep as he is a hard match-up when in
form – might want to take chance elsewhere
9. Ashley McGrath: part of the future
10. Marcus Ashcroft: champion Lion who showed that
father time has caught up, - already announced
retirement (Queenslander)
11. Alastair Lynch: After this years showing probably only
has another 5 years left in him
12. Jason Akermanis: Great player, attitude could be
disruptive to team process – too good to let go as
long as his head fits the team cap (Queenslander)
13. Martin Pike: nearing the end of an unbelievable career,
but still outstanding – 2004 may be the swansong.
14. Richard Hadley: rumour has it he wanted to go home to W.A.,
has a year of contract to run and will probably stay.
15. Mal Michael: must try to keep (Queenslander), but may
want to go
16. Jonathon Brown: future captain – won’t be going anywhere
17. Jared Brennan: outstanding prospect as long as he doesn’t
get the “Aka” cap size.
18. Anthony Corrie: like a likely type, had a long term injury
which ruined season – will be kept because of two
year drafting rule
19. Jamie Charman: the future no. 1 ruckman and looks to have
a strong body - keep at all costs (Queenslander)
20. Simon Black: next captain, champion, legend, outstanding
21. Daniel Merrett: Good size and attitude, a lot to learn but
has a future
22. Chris Scott: will be angry at missing out this year – look
out opposition in 2004
23. Justin Leppitch: another great season – here for career
24. Jarred Wright: lacked opportunities, might have to look
elsewhere or be traded
25. Dylan McLaren: lacked opportunities, might look elsewhere
or be traded
26. Joel McDonald: had a good year with Cubs – likely promotion
prior to draft (Queenslander)
27. Clark Keating: his body finally held together for an almost
complete season – now the no.1 ruckman
(Queenslander)
28. Troy Selwood: can play, but body needs to be
stronger – future on-baller
29. Paul Shelton: season curtailed by knee problems – probably
will get another run on rookie list (Queenslander)
30. Robert Copeland: suggested as “trade-bait” recently, but
after effort on Buckley will be kept (Queenslander)
31. Luke Weller: did OK when promoted, but might be on the
move, although may not be by choice (Queenslander)
32. Shaun Hart: probably considered retirement, however 4 in
a row might be an enticement
33. Daryl White: was all but gone 8 weeks ago, but has fought
back strongly – has another year left in him
34. Aaron Shattock: thereabouts all year and injury might have
cost him a place - keep
35. Shane Morrison: did just OK when given the chance – for
his sake he should have a look elsewhere
(Queenslander)
36. Daniel Bradshaw: was probably gone last year, but no-one
wanted, has re-invented himself at both ends of
ground and Lions will now want to keep as long a
the salary cap bug don’t bite
37.Daniel Pratt: strong body and must have been close to
promotion before mid-year injury stopped season –
will be a likely promotion to senior list prior to draft
(Queenslander)
38. -
39. -
40. Nick Raines: two years on rookie list and unlikely to get
another chance – may head south (Queenslander)
41. -
42. Kevin Tandogac: done enough to get another rookie listing
(Queenslander)
43. Beau McDonald: Injury prone, doesn’t do a lot around the
ground – would be great “trade-bait”, but will probably
be kept until Merrett is ready
44. Nigel Lappin: great game with a punctured lung - should be
knighted – keep at all costs

Summary:

Retired – 1 (Ashcroft)
Traded or move on – 5 (Gram, Notting, Morrison,
Wright & ?)
Increase list from 35 to 37 – 2
Total vacancies – 9

Promoted from Rookies – 3 (Weller, Pratt & J. MacDonald)
Additions at Draft – 6

New Rookies - 3
 
I've said it elsewhere on the board, but I think it's time for C.McRae and D.White to retire. They've been great players, and it's probably true that they might be able to offer one more year. However, you have to weigh up whether or not it is worth having these players give you one more year at the expense of losing other players who will give you 5+ more years of good football.

If McRae and White retire, I'd think that it would free up a significant amount of salary cap space. Likewise, I also believe that they can be replaced immediately by the likes of McGrath and Brennan respectively.
 
I doubt we'll be increasing our list to more than 36, and I suspect we'll only use three of our picks in the draft. After all, its always a bit of a lottery for the Lions to find kids who actually want to play. Better off holding on to someone like Morrison or Wright.
 

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I know this didn’t create a great deal of discussion last run, but lets try again now that we know some more facts or supposed facts and it’s finalised tomorrow.

Lets see how close this is for 2004 (mark 2):

1. Blake Caracella: had some ordinary times during year,
but showed his class when in space in the most
important game
2. Chris Johnson: a legend
3. Michael Voss: the biggest legend (Queenslander)
4. Craig McRae: very important, should go around again
in 2004, if only to help the “young guns” - staying
5. Brad Scott: will be back meaner than ever in 2004
6. Luke Power: should try very hard to hang on to - staying
7. Jason Gram: showed some good form when given a
chance, maybe not the “hardness” profile that the
Lions like – possible “trade bait” - gone
8. Tim Notting: season impacted by terrible injury, would
be nice to keep, as he is a hard match-up when in
form – staying
9. Ashley McGrath: part of the future
10. Marcus Ashcroft: champion Lion who showed that
father time has caught up, - already announced
retirement (Queenslander)
11. Alastair Lynch: After this years showing probably only
has another 5 years left in him - staying
12. Jason Akermanis: Great player, attitude could be
disruptive to team process – too good to let go as
long as his head fits the team cap (Queenslander) - staying
13. Martin Pike: nearing the end of an unbelievable career,
but still outstanding – 2004 may be the swansong.
14. Richard Hadley: rumour has it he wanted to go home to W.A.,
has a year of contract to run and will probably stay – probably staying
15. Mal Michael: must try to keep (Queenslander), but may
want to go – staying
16. Jonathon Brown: future captain – won’t be going anywhere
17. Jared Brennan: outstanding prospect as long as he doesn’t
get the “Aka” cap size.
18. Anthony Corrie: like a likely type, had a long term injury
which ruined season – will be kept because of two
year drafting rule
19. Jamie Charman: the future no. 1 ruckman and looks to have
a strong body - keep at all costs (Queenslander)
20. Simon Black: next captain, champion, legend, outstanding
21. Daniel Merrett: Good size and attitude, a lot to learn but
has a future
22. Chris Scott: will be angry at missing out this year – look
out opposition in 2004
23. Justin Leppitch: another great season – here for career
24. Jarred Wright: lacked opportunities, might have to look
elsewhere or be traded – rumours say gone
25. Dylan McLaren: lacked opportunities, might look elsewhere
or be traded - staying
26. Joel McDonald: had a good year with Cubs – likely promotion
prior to draft (Queenslander) - rumours say promoted
27. Clark Keating: his body finally held together for an almost
complete season – now the no.1 ruckman
(Queenslander)
28. Troy Selwood: can play, but body needs to be
stronger – future on-baller
29. Paul Shelton: season curtailed by knee problems – probably
will get another run on rookie list (Queenslander) - rumours say gone
30. Robert Copeland: suggested as “trade-bait” recently, but
after effort on Buckley will be kept (Queenslander) – maybe going
31. Luke Weller: did OK when promoted, but might be on the
move, although may not be by choice (Queenslander) - rumours say gone
32. Shaun Hart: probably considered retirement, however 4 in
a row might be an enticement
33. Daryl White: was all but gone 8 weeks ago, but has fought
back strongly – has another year left in him
34. Aaron Shattock: thereabouts all year and injury might have
cost him a place - keep
35. Shane Morrison: did just OK when given the chance – for
his sake he should have a look elsewhere - rumours say going
(Queenslander)
36. Daniel Bradshaw: was probably gone last year, but no-one
wanted, has re-invented himself at both ends of
ground and Lions will now want to keep as long a
the salary cap bug don’t bite - staying
37.Daniel Pratt: strong body and must have been close to
promotion before mid-year injury stopped season –will be a likely promotion to senior list prior to draft – no news, must be either staying as rookie or promoted
(Queenslander)
38. -
39. -
40. Nick Raines: two years on rookie list and unlikely to get
another chance – may head south (Queenslander) - rumours say gone
41. -
42. Kevin Tandogac: done enough to get another rookie listing
(Queenslander) - rumours say gone
43. Beau McDonald: Injury prone, doesn’t do a lot around the
ground – would be great “trade-bait”, but will probably
be kept until Merrett is ready
44. Nigel Lappin: great game with a punctured lung - should be
knighted – keep at all costs

Summary:

Retired – 1 (Ashcroft)
Traded or move on – 3+ (Gram, Morrison,
Wright & possibly Copeland or Pike?)
Increase list from 35 to 37 (must do AFL ruling) – 2

Total guaranteed vacancies – 6 (maybe more depending on Copeland & Pike)

Promoted from Rookies – 1 or maybe 2 (J. MacDonald, & ?)
Additions at Draft – 3 min. (AFL ruling) + one or 2 if only MacDonald promoted

New Rookies – up to 5
 
Originally posted by Eagle Eye
I know this didn’t create a great deal of discussion last run, but lets try again now that we know some more facts or supposed facts and it’s finalised tomorrow.

Lets see how close this is for 2004 (mark 2):

1. Blake Caracella: had some ordinary times during year,
but showed his class when in space in the most
important game
2. Chris Johnson: a legend
3. Michael Voss: the biggest legend (Queenslander)
4. Craig McRae: very important, should go around again
in 2004, if only to help the “young guns” - staying
5. Brad Scott: will be back meaner than ever in 2004
6. Luke Power: should try very hard to hang on to - staying
7. Jason Gram: showed some good form when given a
chance, maybe not the “hardness” profile that the
Lions like – possible “trade bait” - gone
8. Tim Notting: season impacted by terrible injury, would
be nice to keep, as he is a hard match-up when in
form – staying
9. Ashley McGrath: part of the future
10. Marcus Ashcroft: champion Lion who showed that
father time has caught up, - already announced
retirement (Queenslander)
11. Alastair Lynch: After this years showing probably only
has another 5 years left in him - staying
12. Jason Akermanis: Great player, attitude could be
disruptive to team process – too good to let go as
long as his head fits the team cap (Queenslander) - staying
13. Martin Pike: nearing the end of an unbelievable career,
but still outstanding – 2004 may be the swansong.
14. Richard Hadley: rumour has it he wanted to go home to W.A.,
has a year of contract to run and will probably stay – probably staying
15. Mal Michael: must try to keep (Queenslander), but may
want to go – staying
16. Jonathon Brown: future captain – won’t be going anywhere
17. Jared Brennan: outstanding prospect as long as he doesn’t
get the “Aka” cap size.
18. Anthony Corrie: like a likely type, had a long term injury
which ruined season – will be kept because of two
year drafting rule
19. Jamie Charman: the future no. 1 ruckman and looks to have
a strong body - keep at all costs (Queenslander)
20. Simon Black: next captain, champion, legend, outstanding
21. Daniel Merrett: Good size and attitude, a lot to learn but
has a future
22. Chris Scott: will be angry at missing out this year – look
out opposition in 2004
23. Justin Leppitch: another great season – here for career
24. Jarred Wright: lacked opportunities, might have to look
elsewhere or be traded – rumours say gone
25. Dylan McLaren: lacked opportunities, might look elsewhere
or be traded - staying
26. Joel McDonald: had a good year with Cubs – likely promotion
prior to draft (Queenslander) - rumours say promoted
27. Clark Keating: his body finally held together for an almost
complete season – now the no.1 ruckman
(Queenslander)
28. Troy Selwood: can play, but body needs to be
stronger – future on-baller
29. Paul Shelton: season curtailed by knee problems – probably
will get another run on rookie list (Queenslander) - rumours say gone
30. Robert Copeland: suggested as “trade-bait” recently, but
after effort on Buckley will be kept (Queenslander) – maybe going
31. Luke Weller: did OK when promoted, but might be on the
move, although may not be by choice (Queenslander) - rumours say gone
32. Shaun Hart: probably considered retirement, however 4 in
a row might be an enticement
33. Daryl White: was all but gone 8 weeks ago, but has fought
back strongly – has another year left in him
34. Aaron Shattock: thereabouts all year and injury might have
cost him a place - keep
35. Shane Morrison: did just OK when given the chance – for
his sake he should have a look elsewhere - rumours say going
(Queenslander)
36. Daniel Bradshaw: was probably gone last year, but no-one
wanted, has re-invented himself at both ends of
ground and Lions will now want to keep as long a
the salary cap bug don’t bite - staying
37.Daniel Pratt: strong body and must have been close to
promotion before mid-year injury stopped season –will be a likely promotion to senior list prior to draft – no news, must be either staying as rookie or promoted
(Queenslander)
38. -
39. -
40. Nick Raines: two years on rookie list and unlikely to get
another chance – may head south (Queenslander) - rumours say gone
41. -
42. Kevin Tandogac: done enough to get another rookie listing
(Queenslander) - rumours say gone
43. Beau McDonald: Injury prone, doesn’t do a lot around the
ground – would be great “trade-bait”, but will probably
be kept until Merrett is ready
44. Nigel Lappin: great game with a punctured lung - should be
knighted – keep at all costs

Summary:

Retired – 1 (Ashcroft)
Traded or move on – 3+ (Gram, Morrison,
Wright & possibly Copeland or Pike?)
Increase list from 35 to 37 (must do AFL ruling) – 2

Total guaranteed vacancies – 6 (maybe more depending on Copeland & Pike)

Promoted from Rookies – 1 or maybe 2 (J. MacDonald, & ?)
Additions at Draft – 3 min. (AFL ruling) + one or 2 if only MacDonald promoted

New Rookies – up to 5

My guess is this.

Delistings: Morrison and perhaps Wright. Wright being 19 could stay. Afterall, Morrison was around for 4 years, so there's hope for Wright to stay on. But I can see a repeat of Luke Hammond. So those 2 to be delisted.

Promotions: Weller, MacDonald and possibly Pratt.
 

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List Prediction for 2004

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