Lists by Numbers

[lamaros]

Just looking at some stuff and I observed the following:

In 2008 our players 'ranking points' per game listed this as our top 20 (in order):

Stanton, McVeigh, Hille, Johnson, Watson, Peverill, Lloyd, Welsh, Lovett, McPhee, Monfries, Houli, Nash, Winderlich, Reimers, NLM, Dyson, Davey, Fletcher, Lonergan.

In 2011 it was:

Stanton, Watson, Hocking, Howlett, Heppell, Hille, Monfries, Ryder, Crameri, Hibberd, Hurley, Melksham, Myers, Jetta, Carlisle, Bellchambers, Lonergan, Prismall, Hardingham.

Only 5 guys from that top 20 in 2008 are in the 2011 top 20. And Hille aside, they're all young blokes. Mostly meaningless, but I thought I'd share.

Decent turnover for 3 years, making finals in both. Knights actually did a pretty decent job pushing older guys out the door.

 

[DVD Player]

Great Work!

 

[Smokin]

Knights actually did a pretty decent job pushing older guys out the door.

I totally agree, and it is a bit of a shame he isnt recognised for much at all in his time here.

This probably confirms my overall gut feel - our list is looking pretty good and IMHO 2013 - 12 months time, will be the start of the list coming into its own.

If it is good enough to pinch a flag or not, I dont know but I think it can go real close.

We will have a pretty decent crop of maturing midfielders joining our current older mids who would still be in their prime PLUS a maturing group of great young KPP players doing the same. The timing may prove to be as perfect as can be realistically designed which IMHO is the most exciting thing for us.

Take another good list for example Carlton - I dont think their KPP players in drapting kept up with midfielders - now they are in a position where players who are their strength, Judd, Scotland, Waite, Simpson, Carrots to a point, will actually start to decline in output, so they will need this slack taken up by younger mids generally, which I am not sure they have (Ie level behind Murphy, Gibbs, Robinson etc). Add to that probably one sure fire KP player in Jamison (who seems always injured), and you have a slight problem. To me, this looks like they actually have a short window probably open this year and maybe next, becase the quality of loss (Judd, Scotland, Simpson) is actually of extremely high standard.

My gut on them is similar to Footscray, who took too long to bite that bullet on KP players (trading), and thus their window was never truly given its chance to pinch one.

 

[TheDon35]

I get the thread but commencing by suggesting that Geelong are in trouble is a bit far fetched.

Their kids are IMO as good if not better than ours. They've got a solid enough mid tier with a host of A graders - Scarlett, Bartel, Selwood, Chapman, Johnson, Enright... I could probably go on.

As far as A graders, we have 1 maybe 2 if you still include Fletcher.

 

[lamaros]

I get the thread but commencing by suggesting that Geelong are in trouble is a bit far fetched.

Their kids are IMO as good if not better than ours. They've got a solid enough mid tier with a host of A graders - Scarlett, Bartel, Selwood, Chapman, Johnson, Enright... I could probably go on.

As far as A graders, we have 1 maybe 2 if you still include Fletcher.

Time goes forwards, not just backwards.

 

[Slattery_20]

Those guys -except Selwood, who'd be going on 23 this year - are 29+, not mid-tier at all.

 

[mick7]

Re: The Non-Essendon Thread II

Great write up lamaros I had to idea we had the young of a side (rose coloured glasses) for a finals team. This means quite well for us and looks like Norf will be fighting for spots with us - pretty much the same as late 19902. (Except instead of Sir James winning the Brownlow it will be Sir Jobe)

 

[TheDon35]

Those guys -except Selwood, who'd be going on 23 this year - are 29+, not mid-tier at all.

So based on that, we may as well rule out Watson and Fletcher.

They smashed the Suns on Friday night with an equivalent if not younger side in. Hardly concerning.

 

[TheDon35]

Time goes forwards, not just backwards.

And what they've got coming through looks pretty good to me.

As said, i get the exersize but players are made from quality not their age. The question is, will 4 or 5 of Zaka, Melksham, Carlisle, Pears, Heppell, Kavanagh, Dempsey, Ryder, etc develop into genuine A graders, if so we will be good.

It's no different to 4 or 5 of Menzel, Duncan, Christensen, Vardy, West, Smeddts, Hawkins etc developing A graders... Which is just as if not more likely given what history suggests.

 

[Slattery_20]

What are you on about?
29+ is definitely in the latter third of your career, if we're talking lists by numbers.

 

[lamaros]

And what they've got coming through looks pretty good to me.

As said, i get the exersize but players are made from quality not their age. The question is, will 4 or 5 of Zaka, Melksham, Carlisle, Pears, Heppell, Kavanagh, Dempsey, Ryder, etc develop into genuine A graders, if so we will be good.

It's no different to 4 or 5 of Menzel, Duncan, Christensen, Vardy, West, Smeddts, Hawkins etc developing A graders... Which is just as if not more likely given what history suggests.

What are you talking about?

Take out Hawkins and those guys have played 19, 29, 21, 9, 20 games each. That's one season of AFL. They've done it being the second string behind a group of players that makes up one of the champion teams of the game. There are countless players who have been decent support players in great teams who haven't gone on to have great careers. (God, just look at our 2000 side...)

Look at Geelong's B&F in 2011:

1st Corey Enright (150) - 31 years old this year.
2nd Joel Corey (143) - 30
3rd Jimmy Bartel (142) - 29
4th (eq) James Kelly (138) - 29
4th (eq) Cameron Ling (138) - Retired
6th (eq) Matthew Scarlett (137) - 33
6th (eq) Joel Selwood (137) - 24
6th (eq) Steve Johnson (137) - 29
9th James Podsiadly (136) - 31
10th Harry Taylor (134) - 26

On top of that best 10 Geelong has Wojo (32), Chapman (31), Hunt (30), Lonergan (28), Mackie (28) & Stokes (28) playing most weeks.

Selwood we know is quality. Taylor we know is quality. Varcoe is making the most of his role and Tom Hawkins might finally be coming good. All the other mid to youngish guys? Fringe and support players.

The situation at Geelong is unlike most other teams in the league, and completely different to ours.

Zaharakis won our B&F. Heppell and Ryder were in the top 10. Stanton, Watson, Hocking, Hurley, Howlett, Crameri were also in there.

9 of our top 10 from the 2011 B&F are younger than 8 of Geelong's top 10 2011. 7 of our 10 are younger than all bar Selwood (Stanton is one month older than Taylor).

On top of that Pears and Melksham have played 47 and 37 games. Pears is one of our key defenders. As is Hooker. We have guys like Jetta and Myers playing experienced roles.

We have Fletcher, Hille and McVeigh in our side out of the old gang. Most of Geelong's team is blokes in that age group. Not three guys, only one who is key, but most of the team.

If you really think their kids are shouldering as much weight as ours are, or Richmond's, Melbourne, etc's are then you're insane. And if you think that doesn't matter you're doubly insane.

People are getting waaaaay ahead of themselves about Geelong's youth.

 

[Slattery_20]

Our youth would look quality as well, if only the 2 or 3 of them on the best form ever had to play.

 

[Kong]

An easy way to explain it, using age/games played:

When their stars (the majority of that top 10) retire, their veterans will be Selwood, Taylor and Varcoe (~25-26), then a whole bunch of guys around 21.

They'll dip, whether it's in a year or two, it'll happen. It has to.

 

[lamaros]

An easy way to explain it, using age/games played:

When their stars (the majority of that top 10) retire, their veterans will be Selwood, Taylor and Varcoe (~25-26), then a whole bunch of guys around 21.

They'll dip, whether it's in a year or two, it'll happen. It has to.

My prediction is a dip this year, and it will continue for the next 4 or so. They'll probably dip a fair way and get some good draft picks though.

 

[Smokin]

It's no different to 4 or 5 of Menzel, Duncan, Christensen, Vardy, West, Smeddts, Hawkins etc developing A graders... Which is just as if not more likely given what history suggests.

true, but you have to look at the whole list as well.

For example, in the coming year or two Geelong will have a whole slab of champions at the top end dropping off the list, so the guys you mentioned will HAVE to become nearly AS GOOD players just to keep the status quo, that is the reality of their situation which is expected for any great team. Just about impossible you would imagine.

Take ours, we have a whole host of young kids as well (IMO much better crop, but so it should be) who will be hopefully taking huge strides in development, whilst losing hardly anyone (bar FLetch of course) at the top end.

Most of what we will lose in the next 2-3 years is either covered (Hille and Fletch to an extent), or not a core part of our team - McVeigh, NLM, Dyson, Slattery etc.

But IMHO we have another added bonus, the timing of recruiting a gun group of young talls - Pears, Hooker, Hurley, Ryder, T'Bell earlier, so that at the same time the mids will be maturing, the talls will have had the extra years to be maturing as well (bar Carlisle, a little younger). I feel we have some exciting times ahead.

 

[TheDon35]

What are you talking about?

Take out Hawkins and those guys have played 19, 29, 21, 9, 20 games each. That's one season of AFL. They've done it being the second string behind a group of players that makes up one of the champion teams of the game. There are countless players who have been decent support players in great teams who haven't gone on to have great careers. (God, just look at our 2000 side...)

Look at Geelong's B&F in 2011:

1st Corey Enright (150) - 31 years old this year.
2nd Joel Corey (143) - 30
3rd Jimmy Bartel (142) - 29
4th (eq) James Kelly (138) - 29
4th (eq) Cameron Ling (138) - Retired
6th (eq) Matthew Scarlett (137) - 33
6th (eq) Joel Selwood (137) - 24
6th (eq) Steve Johnson (137) - 29
9th James Podsiadly (136) - 31
10th Harry Taylor (134) - 26

On top of that best 10 Geelong has Wojo (32), Chapman (31), Hunt (30), Lonergan (28), Mackie (28) & Stokes (28) playing most weeks.

Selwood we know is quality. Taylor we know is quality. Varcoe is making the most of his role and Tom Hawkins might finally be coming good. All the other mid to youngish guys? Fringe and support players.

The situation at Geelong is unlike most other teams in the league, and completely different to ours.

Zaharakis won our B&F. Heppell and Ryder were in the top 10. Stanton, Watson, Hocking, Hurley, Howlett, Crameri were also in there.

9 of our top 10 from the 2011 B&F are younger than 8 of Geelong's top 10 2011. 7 of our 10 are younger than all bar Selwood (Stanton is one month older than Taylor).

On top of that Pears and Melksham have played 47 and 37 games. Pears is one of our key defenders. As is Hooker. We have guys like Jetta and Myers playing experienced roles.

We have Fletcher, Hille and McVeigh in our side out of the old gang. Most of Geelong's team is blokes in that age group. Not three guys, only one who is key, but most of the team.

If you really think their kids are shouldering as much weight as ours are, or Richmond's, Melbourne, etc's are then you're insane. And if you think that doesn't matter you're doubly insane.

People are getting waaaaay ahead of themselves about Geelong's youth.

Yea, Watching the cats babies beat up on what's supposed to be the best young list in the competition is difficult to work out... Not alot of point having the discussion if you're not capable of looking at the arguement objectively.

 

[TheDon35]

true, but you have to look at the whole list as well.

For example, in the coming year or two Geelong will have a whole slab of champions at the top end dropping off the list, so the guys you mentioned will HAVE to become nearly AS GOOD players just to keep the status quo, that is the reality of their situation which is expected for any great team. Just about impossible you would imagine.

Take ours, we have a whole host of young kids as well (IMO much better crop, but so it should be) who will be hopefully taking huge strides in development, whilst losing hardly anyone (bar FLetch of course) at the top end.

Most of what we will lose in the next 2-3 years is either covered (Hille and Fletch to an extent), or not a core part of our team - McVeigh, NLM, Dyson, Slattery etc.

But IMHO we have another added bonus, the timing of recruiting a gun group of young talls - Pears, Hooker, Hurley, Ryder, T'Bell earlier, so that at the same time the mids will be maturing, the talls will have had the extra years to be maturing as well (bar Carlisle, a little younger). I feel we have some exciting times ahead.

I get what you're saying but It's all irrelivent unless these kids develop into what we need them to become. Having the perfectly profiled list means nothing if they're all c - b graders or constantly injured.

 

[lamaros]

Lol you think the nab cup game means anything. Not worth a discussion at all.

 

[Tassieboy]

Lol you think the nab cup game means anything. Not worth a discussion at all.

It is when you win

 

[lamaros]

Only when teams play anything like they do in the normal season. 2+2 and half time subs have meant meaningless games for the most part.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

That tide of imminent retirements may well also leave Geelong with a massive free agency warchest.

 

[TheDon35]

Lol you think the nab cup game means anything. Not worth a discussion at all.

Yea, it's a shame that performance doesn't suit your arguement. But anyway, here's another angle:

Kelly, Bartel, Johnson, Mackie, Enright, Stokes, Lonergan all more than capable of playing on for at least 2 more years after this one.

You'd think they'd get at least 1 more year after this year out of one of Chapman, Podsiadly, Hunt, Scarlett or Corey,

The Following all have 6 years at least in them.

Hawkins: Won a GF for Geelong last year. Was the difference on the day
Taylor: All Australian
Varco: Quality outside ball carrier and finisher
Sellwood: As good as there is in the competition

The next lot are kids that look the goods:

Menzel: Gun
Duncan: Solid young mid who is developing very well.
Crhistensen: Incredible pick up.
Vardy: Easily as promising as Carlisle
West: Ottens out West in..
Smeddts: Wraps are massive.
Kersten: Massive wraps also.
T Hunt: Very impressive young player.
Ablett compensation pick?

And a heap more that I know nothing about although you can bet your bottom dollar there's a few gems in there.

Based on that you've got a serious list for what should at least be this year and next year (Injury pending). The rest is up to the development of the kids and the unkowns on the list. But there's enough there to be more than optimistic for a cats fan.

Oh... And they have the best recruiter in the country.

 

[lamaros]

They have the best recruiters based on the fact guys they recruited 11+ years ago are good?

I'm not allowed to call people idiots anymore, so I'll have to just tell you to, kindly, stop being stupid. Talking about guys who've hardly, or never, played as guns is just stupid.

 

[TheDon35]

They have the best recruiters based on the fact guys they recruited 11+ years ago are good?

I'm not allowed to call people idiots anymore, so I'll have to just tell you to, kindly, stop being stupid. Talking about guys who've hardly, or never, played as guns is just stupid.

No, because the guys they recruited 9+ years ago are exceptional. And,

based on the fact that they get a bloke like Menzel at pick 17 or there abouts when we're trading out of that order to bring in Williams.

Based on them taking Selwood at number 7. Multiple All Australian. Harry Taylor in the 20's: All Australian, Christensen in the 30's or 40's...

Based on the fact that they see potential in the sausage eater Mumford with a rookie pick and he's now in the best 5 rucks in the competition. That wasn't enough from a ruck perspective they get a gem in trent West with pick 31.

Based on the fact that they draft Matty Egan with pick 62 then 3 years later he's the All Australian CHB....

And based on the fact that despite being on the top of the pile for 5 - 7 years, they are still bringing in quality players that are stepping straight into the side and making a positive impact.

Again, sorry if those inconvenient facts don't suit your arguement.

 

[DaSawx]

Another thing I noticed from last year when we were playing well.

The media were mentioning how many different goal kickers Collingwood has per game over the last couple of years, spreading them around.

When we play well we are just as good at this, a lot of 1s and 2s, bodes well IMO.