LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

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Also as is probably clear from my posting about it a fair bit, I wish they would update the count of Melbourne Ports! I reckon it's massively underrated how close it is but would be interested to hear others' thoughts. For some reason it's one of the least counted electorates in the land, with less than 60,000 votes counted at this point. Not really sure why
The votes that will be counted most quickly are those in seats where the result is already known. Seats that are in doubt will have scrutineers all over them and progress very slowly. Melbourne Ports probably has three sets of scrutineers as well.
 

Forward Press

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ABC:

  • Petrie: At the moment Liberal MP Luke Howarth is just holding on with 81.3% counted.
  • Herbert: Labor's Cathy O'Toole ahead of Govt MP Ewen Jones with 82% counted.
  • Capricornia: Labor's Leisa Neaton leading Govt MP Michelle Landry with 79.8% counted.
  • Forde: Incumbent Bert Van Manen is trailing Labor's Des Hardman with 78.7% counted.
  • Gilmore: Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis is ahead with 85% counted.
  • Chisholm: Liberal Julia Banks is leading Labor's Stefanie Perri with 69% counted.
  • Dunkley: Liberal candidate Chris Crewther is holding on with 74.1% of the vote counted.
  • Hindmarsh: Former Labor MP Steve Georganas is leading Govt MP Matt Williams with 78.4% counted.
  • Grey: NXT's Andrew Broadfoot is in front of Govt MP Rowan Ramsey with 77.5% counted.
  • Cowan: Labor's Anne Aly is ahead of the incumbent Luke Simkins with 77.2% counted
If they all stay the same, that's ALP 5, LNP 4, NXT 1.
 

sverik25

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NXT looks like snagging another safe Liberal seat in Grey, which was counted as a win on Saturday when counting closed.
The thing with Grey only 6.69% of the two candidate preferred count has been done. At the moment the lead to the NXT is 5.16% or 678 votes but that may well disappear.
 

Mateyman

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Looks like Danby's going to win reasonably comfortably, unless the Greens candidate can somehow over take him and move into second place in the preferences.
I would expect nearly all votes from the Animal Justice Party, HEMP and Marriage Equality party to go to the greens though. And that's roughly 5% of the vote and there's only 2% between the Greens candidate and Danby. Apparently Greens do badly with postals in Melbourne Ports though. This could be because of a significant Jewish community some of whom don't vote on Saturdays. People have reported that Greens generally do well in pre-polls though
 

nobbyiscool

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I doubt the gloss comes off Howards years in the general populations mind, he looked after them well when he was in power, and most want link the long term effects of his policies and their issues now. Academics and economists on the other hand, but the are all raving lefties anyway so will be dismissed.
I know you're being a little tongue in cheek - but if the smartest people in the country who base their opinions on science and research think something, isn't there a strong chance that they're right.

That "we" are so anti-intellectual in this country as to ignore them as lefties is one of this country's great shames.

Speaking of, the TV we bought with Kevin 07's budget stimulus is just starting to break :(
Mine too. I feel like a got a good 8 years out of my plasma, but the burn in is starting to become very noticeable, and I couldn't find anything I liked at a price I liked in the recent EOFY sales :(

The Opposition would oppose, that's no surprise. I am saying that if it was an ALP government communicating with GWB in the US they would've done the same thing. Don't get me wrong, I'm anti-war and probably side with the ALP over the Libs in most things, but the political reality at the time meant we were going in no matter who was in power (imo).
It actually was a surprise. I'm pretty sure it was the first time we'd committed troops to anything that didn't have bipartisan support since the 1960s.

Keep kidding yourself
He's actually right - the Rudd/Gillard government has a lasting legacy in the NBN (or at least the shell of it), in centrist workplace relations reform, and in the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The Howard legacy is the GST, a drastic lowering of political discourse in Australia (I don't know if you're old enough to remember Keating, but what a slippery slope the Howard years took us down), and pissing away the proceeds of the mining boom with tax cuts that were unsustainable and that would eventually lead us into debt when we had to pay for the infrastructure that we needed.
 

Mateyman

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The thing with Grey only 6.69% of the two candidate preferred count has been done. At the moment the lead to the NXT is 5.16% or 678 votes but that may well disappear.
Looking at the primaries though, you would imagine NXT would mop up pretty much all of the Labor and Greens preferences which would get them to about 50% or a touch over.
 

Demosthenes

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Would you classify One Nation as hard right? I am aware that their primary vote totals are still relatively small but it was still substantial in 1998 and obviously they have at least one in the Senate so far.
Yeah probably. I guess it comes back to what labels on a two dimensional spectrum really mean.

I don't really think there are many proper nationalists in Australia though. In 1998 and this year, One Nation's success has more been about voters feeling disenfranchised in a couple of specific policy areas.
 

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Happy Mastenator

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I know you're being a little tongue in cheek - but if the smartest people in the country who base their opinions on science and research think something, isn't there a strong chance that they're right.

That "we" are so anti-intellectual in this country as to ignore them as lefties is one of this country's great shames.
Agree 100%.
 

Bomberboyokay

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Gillard never got married herself. I think she's of that old school feminist mold that says marriage came out of a paternalistic concept of owning women, so why would a modern woman take part in it?

There's similar thinking from some gay writers. Given marriage for so long has been associated with religion and religions in the past weren't very nice to gay people, then some people think gay people shouldn't want to get married. I'd have to look at her comments more closely, but she was openly atheist and I wonder if her comments about tradition could have slyly said that she was listening to those opinions, without really endorsing the conservative schools of thought.

Of course in both cases the far more popular opinion is to say that marriage is about official commitment to loving one other, and a lot of people love the feeling of stability it gives - especially when they're setting off on the long-term project of building a family.
Gillard and Rudd have both declared their support for gay marriage since leaving Parliament. Not hard to connect the dots.

Edit: Apparently Rudd declared while still Prime Minister 2.0 but I don't recall him doing anything to legislate it.

August 2013 - "During last night's leaders' debate Kevin Rudd promised that if re-elected, he would take the first steps towards making gay marriage a reality, describing it as a "mark of decency to same-sex couples".

He said a bill on the issue would come before parliament within 100 days if Labor wins another term, and his party would be allowed a conscience vote."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/gay-marriage-advocates-welcome-rudds-pledge/4880090
 
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Interesting. Suggests reasonably significant leakage from ALP to Libs
Because NXT hasn't run before, Green manually put in preference flow of 70% from ALP to NXT, which is probably low-balling it.

EDIT: ^That is how I read the fine print on the page, but it may actually be saying that the existing preference count is being reapplied across all the booths for the prediction. In that case, I'd wait and see on more booths coming in, particularly those in Whyalla.
 

Happy Mastenator

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Of note, one of the guys i went to uni with in Matt Keogh won the seat of Burt in WA. Great news for him. Weren't best mates or anything while at uni, but always seemed like a decent guy, if somewhat opinionated (though who isn't at uni). I'm sure he'll do a great job.
 

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The thing with Grey only 6.69% of the two candidate preferred count has been done. At the moment the lead to the NXT is 5.16% or 678 votes but that may well disappear.
The ABC website is now running both a preference count from the AEC website, and a projected preference count. Ramsey leads on the latter.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/grey/
Yeah only just noticed the discrepancy. Surely it would make sense to run the AEC projections on the main page.
 
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Yeah only just noticed the discrepancy. Surely it would make sense to run the AEC projections on the main page.
The AEC doesn't use projections. It just gives away seats according to what the counted figures say, regardless of how much of the count they have done. The ABC website is using the figures already counted to extrapolate across the seat, and is therefore more likely to be close to the final result.
 

Donakebab

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The AEC doesn't use projections. It just gives away seats according to what the counted figures say, regardless of how much of the count they have done. The ABC website is using the figures already counted to extrapolate across the seat, and is therefore more likely to be close to the final result.
Thanks for the clarification, makes sense now. In that case you'd definitely think the Grey swing will continue as preferences from the Greens and ALP are far more likely to flow to NXT than NLP.
 
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